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Bama: would you take +18?

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I don’t care how much of a sure thing it is, I would never bet against my canes. Don’t want to make money on our boys losing. That said, if i was not a canes fan I would take Bama -18 easy and wouldn’t think twice about it. Last year our 2 best opponents both blew us out. We need to show that we can compete in big games.
 
I don’t bet against the U

but Saban has never lost a neutral site opener and his average margin of victory is 20.5 in those games. I’m not betting it, but if you are …
 
I've been selling property in South Florida that I don't "technically" own all in order to place a massive bet on the Canes moneyline. I'll reimburse the actual "owners" before I personally go to the moon! I'll say hi to LCE for you guys when I arrive there.
 
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scrantoncane said:
Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.
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Yes, but I wouldn't bet the farm.
 
clg003 said:
You question the kids ability to hand the ball off? Alabama is going to have no reason to pass. They will run behind their tackles all day long while our DEs over pursue every play. The question to me is do we feel like our LBs can handle a bruising NFL RB with TEs in play.
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That's now how Alabama plays football anymore. If Miami is unable to defend the run with a 7-man box and 2-deep shell Diaz will go single-high with 8 in the box like what happened against UNC when Dyami Brown roasted Ivey. Like UNC, Bama will go to the pass game and attack matchups either with 9-routes or deep crossers.

For context Robinson has run for 5ypc on average over 4 years at Bama. Trey Sanders was at 4.5ypc last year. Roydell Williams was 3.7ypc. Najee Harris the last 3 years: 5.8, 5.9, 6.7. Bama's RBs are every bit as unproven as Miami's front.
 
Corrected I wouldn't touch the game. I was watching a video on all the 1st round NFL draft picks best plays and bama players just look like the old canes. Monsters man I don't see how we beat them. Big fast explosive and we'll coached.....super talented squad. I'm sorry I love y'all but it won't be close
 
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I'd take Miami +18. We really going to close 39-20? Or some ish. This feels like a 34-24 Bama win that is more of a feel out game. Tons of turnover for Bama will slow them down a bit vs our experience.
 
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jmccomber5 said:
I don’t bet against the U

but Saban has never lost a neutral site opener and his average margin of victory is 20.5 in those games. I’m not betting it, but if you are …
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2020: 38-19 at Mizzou
2019: 14-3 at the half vs Duke in Atlanta, ran away in the 2nd half to win 42-3
2018: 51-14 vs Louisville in Orlando
2017: 24-7 vs FSU in Atlanta (10-7 at the half)
2016: 52-6 vs USC in Dallas....yikes
2015: 35-17 vs Wisconsin in Dallas (14-7 at the half)
2014: 33-23 vs West Virginia in Atlanta (20-17 at the half)
2013: 35-10 vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta
2012: 41-14 vs Michigan in Dallas

That's the last 9 games. They're 9-0...newsflash, they're really good. But it's been a mixed bag. They've had some flat out blowouts, but they've had some games that were pretty close, especially early. I really think we have a good shot to have it a close game at halftime. You have just got to think we'll be a little sharper considering the entire team and offensive staff is back and Bama has so much turnover from last season. I expect a lower scoring game early. The key will be do we have the depth to play with them for 60 minutes and will we be able to adjust as well as they do at the half?
 
Bet Bama, if they cover it takes the away the sting a little bit of Miami losing. If Miami covers, you lose the money, but it means Miami played competent which is a very good sign.
 
clg003 said:
Did you have some point or is this how you pulled off 10K messages in 3 years?
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The real question is how you could possibly have over two thousand posts that literally no one cared enough to even react to.
 
Ziggy said:
I'd take Miami +18. We really going to close 39-20? Or some ish. This feels like a 34-24 Bama win that is more of a feel out game. Tons of turnover for Bama will slow them down a bit vs our experience.
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Talent wins not experience....if u bring back questionable experience on both lines u in trouble. They basically have a pup at LT that would of been a top ten pick last year as a fresh. Don't see how we create pressure and cover their guys on defense. I know that bama D is always loaded next man up. They are basically the 01 canes type of team but never lost the HC.
 
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Dwinstitles said:
Talent wins not experience....if u bring back questionable experience on both lines u in trouble. They basically have a pup at LT that would of been a top ten pick last year as a fresh. Don't see how we create pressure and cover their guys on defense. I know that bama D is always loaded next man up. They are basically the 01 canes type of team but never lost the HC.
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Experience matters a ton as well. Young players make mistakes, no matter how talented they are.

And in today’s game mistakes cost teams wins.
 
Go Canes!! said:
Experience matters a ton as well. Young players make mistakes, no matter how talented they are.

And in today’s game mistakes cost teams wins.
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I think bama will make mistakes but the OL will give enough time to their qb that he will come into his own that game. It will be like the LSU game imo but LSU not being better prepared then bama.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
I already hit that Bama -13.5 Circa line. I’m not touching the Miami side unless it’s bet up to +21.
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I’ll tell you though…

Other books had already opened at -17ish. Circa originates their own lines, and they are **** good at it.

them opening at -13.5 says something to me.
 
scrantoncane said:
I’ll tell you though…

Other books had already opened at -17ish. Circa originates their own lines, and they are **** good at it.

them opening at -13.5 says something to me.
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This isnt directed at you btw....but it says no sportsbook is going to jump out the window with a huge line on a QB they havent seen play in live action yet outside of very little mop up duty. (Bryce Young). Of course bookies want to make the line +28 based on what they have seen from us the last 2 times we played teams in the top 15. (Clemson and UNC) But that is a huge risk as well.

Bookies dont care about what Bama did last year. All the best players from that team are in the NFL right now. If Bama is going to take a slight step back, this is the year it could happen and this is the game it could happen in.
 
All of these teams were much worse than expected. There might be one quality team on that list.
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They weren't horrible. Three teams won 9 games, two won 8, the rest were bad.

Miami has a really good chance to finish with the best record of all the teams Bama has faced (best record being 9-3) and Bama is in somewhat of a transition year (relative to them). The good teams lost by about 3 TD's on average, I could see you making a case that this team should be a ~2 TD underdog. 17 points is probably exactly where it should be.
 
HighSeas said:
That's now how Alabama plays football anymore. If Miami is unable to defend the run with a 7-man box and 2-deep shell Diaz will go single-high with 8 in the box like what happened against UNC when Dyami Brown roasted Ivey. Like UNC, Bama will go to the pass game and attack matchups either with 9-routes or deep crossers.

For context Robinson has run for 5ypc on average over 4 years at Bama. Trey Sanders was at 4.5ypc last year. Roydell Williams was 3.7ypc. Najee Harris the last 3 years: 5.8, 5.9, 6.7. Bama's RBs are every bit as unproven as Miami's front.
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Saban is coming with a truck load of no lub condoms. His plan is to never lose out on a SFL kid to Miami ever again.

He is playing a team whose in the guinness book of world records for not being able to stop the run, a team whose strength is their secondary with a QB who has not even attempted 10 passes. Miami is going to have to prove they can stop the run. There is no one dimensional Saban.

Brian Robinson will be one of the best backs Miami faces all year. Alabama will have the deepest backfield Miami faces all year and the best offensive line that Miami has seen for some time.

Miami has great backs as well but our OL sucks. Which is a huge difference.
 
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