Bama: would you take +18?

[Fightinibis]

I'd take The U -3 and/or Bama +21, assuming reasonable betting odds.

It's important to bear in mind this is a non-conference opener. If Bama gets way ahead, they have no reason to leave a bunch of starters in to pile on points against what will be a very physical defense. At the same time, if they have a healthy lead, it would probably also make sense to pull some starters on D, leaving looking closer than it actually was at the end. I'd be very, very surprised if Miami doesn't score 21+ points assuming King is 100%.

So if we are a very physical defense, how the **** did they get so far ahead so as to pull their starters?

The difference is in the coaching staffs IMHO. The players "could" make it up with the laser focus and fundamentals I haven't seen out of a UM team in a while (probably since Shame 2017), but that is more of a staple of a Saban team, regardless of how many 4-5 stars they have to replace with 4-5 stars. We need breaks, stupid first game mistakes on their end, and some nasty *** preparation that I'm not sure Diaz is capable of....we shall see...

 

[NC_Canes_11]

I’ll tell you though…

Other books had already opened at -17ish. Circa originates their own lines, and they are **** good at it.

them opening at -13.5 says something to me.

It doesn’t mean much to me when they were the only one. Now if they would’ve taken a ton of money and not moved the line 4 points I would’ve taken notice of it.

 

[HurikaneMarc]

I take the 18 and the Canes.

I know I'm beating the LSU drums a lot. But one year they are 10-3, the next they are beating Alabama, Oklahoma by 40 and Clemson by 17 in the NC game. LSU beat 5 top 10 teams that season. The same qb and rb from the year before, but they added Chase. 1 player added and multiple players developed and voila!

Obviously we don't have a once every 5 years type receiver like Chase but there are similarities that we might be ready to break out. I'd love to beat Bama but if we kept it to 10pts, I'll admit (ashamedly) that I will be happy. I think 18 is a layup but I also understand the concern that every time we've dared to hope we could compete with the best teams they've gang raped us by even more than the spread.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

I take the 18 and the Canes.

I know I'm beating the LSU drums a lot. But one year they are 10-3, the next they are beating Alabama, Oklahoma by 40 and Clemson by 17 in the NC game. LSU beat 5 top 10 teams that season. The same qb and rb from the year before, but they added Chase. 1 player added and multiple players developed and voila!

Obviously we don't have a once every 5 years type receiver like Chase but there are similarities that we might be ready to break out. I'd love to beat Bama but if we kept it to 10pts, I'll admit (ashamedly) that I will be happy. I think 18 is a layup but I also understand the concern that every time we've dared to hope we could compete with the best teams they've gang raped us by even more than the spread.

It had nothing to do with adding players. They already had players, they just added a real offensive coach.

 

[nickster]

I'll pass and just watch the game. Manny can recruit all he wants but he is going against Nick Saban and I'm sure think he will try to run the score up big time. I hope we will the the game but not risking my money. If the line was plus 35 I would consider it.

 

[jw410]

Bet t

Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.

Bet the house

 

[Dwinstitles]

I'll pass and just watch the game. Manny can recruit all he wants but he is going against Nick Saban and I'm sure think he will try to run the score up big time. I hope we will the the game but not risking my money. If the line was plus 35 I would consider it.

Saban out talents man there aint nothing super schematic he does. Coaches go there to look good with those athletes and get jobs later and suck. Dude is the GOAT, i dislike him but it is what it is.

 

[canes41590]

Bama covers

 

[puertorricane]

We need to start a thread the day before where posters post proof of their bets.
Many saying they are taking Bama but really doubt it.

 

[hydro66]

I never bet on my team , it's bad luck to me and history as shown when we play a strong team never looks good the following game. It's like we SHOT our load for a couple of of games.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.

If our Canes' OL doesn't play lights out, it could be +18 for Bama before the end of 1Q.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

Although I don't think it will happen, I can totally see King being held out due to "an abundance of precaution to his rehab" so that he doesn't get killed, which could potentially throw the season.

Manny has proven he doesn't do things conservatively. While yes, I could see this, I don't, unless King just isn't fully ready.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

Being on schedule with your rehab and being cleared to play does not automatically mean he will completely 100%. I won't be surprised if King gets the okay to start, but I won't expect him to be 100% if he does.

He'll likely have a brace on, be relatively limited in mobility, and simply not be the same caliber of player he was before the injury. It would take a few games into the season at least before he was at the point where he could move and be more like himself prior to the injury if he can even get back to that point.

I'm not saying he will be a crippled pocket passer now, but a lot of guys don't come back completely from this type of injury.

You're not wrong, but it's also not nearly as serious of an injury it used to be.

 

[Go Canes!!]

Although I don't think it will happen, I can totally see King being held out due to "an abundance of precaution to his rehab" so that he doesn't get killed, which could potentially throw the season.

when will you guys get this isn’t Manny’s call.

 

[HurikaneMarc]

It had nothing to do with adding players. They already had players, they just added a real offensive coach.

If it were just that, they wouldn't have tanked right after Burrows left. Burrows and Chase leaves and LSU drops 5 the very next year.

The right QB is super duper important which is why I am so high on us. I like the type of man DK is.

 

[TheProf]

If it were just that, they wouldn't have tanked right after Burrows left. Burrows and Chase leaves and LSU drops 5 the very next year.

The right QB is super duper important which is why I am so high on us. I like the type of man DK is.

Brady also left. It was both having Burrow and an elite offensive mind. If Brady was still there the offense would have saved their butts a few times this year.

 

[Edward20]

I agree with your post. But all im saying is that we lost to Clemson by 25 (should have been more probably) and we lost to UNC by 36 (should have also been more probably) and the Bama line opened at less than +21...That is all I needed to see regarding how sportbooks feel about opening too high on an unknown QB.

If Mac Jones had decided to take the free year and come back and play QB to try and win the Heisman..this line would be +28 by now and probably higher by kickoff. Thats my only point.

Never in 80 million gambling years would Mac ******* Jones account for 11 points on a line by himself. You just don't bet. You don't.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

If it were just that, they wouldn't have tanked right after Burrows left. Burrows and Chase leaves and LSU drops 5 the very next year.

The right QB is super duper important which is why I am so high on us. I like the type of man DK is.

You’re forgetting Brady left after that year too

 

[Jassid82]

Never in 80 million gambling years would Mac ******* Jones account for 11 points on a line by himself. You just don't bet. You don't.

You dont know what I do and dont do and I was clearly exaggerating the point but I see you are a newbie around here by your post count so you wouldnt have gotten the sarcasm..That happens alot around here so I would get use to it if I were you.

But my point stands, the only reason this line isnt more than 3 TDs is because of Bryce Young. It aint because sportsbooks are afraid we might actually make this a game. **** our own fans dont think that.

 

[Edward20]

You dont know what I do and dont do and I was clearly exaggerating the point but I see you are a newbie around here by your post count so you wouldnt have gotten the sarcasm..That happens alot around here so I would get use to it if I were you.

But my point stands, the only reason this line isnt more than 3 TDs is because of Bryce Young. It aint because sportsbooks are afraid we might actually make this a game. **** our own fans dont think that.

I know you don't bet, at least well, and I know you weren't being sarcastic. It doesn't take someone whose life centers around posting on 18 threads a day on a free message board to boost their self esteem like many here to detect that.

The line is what it is for multiple reasons. In the end it's meant to get equal action both ways. Look how many people on here are on each side. That says they made a good line from their perspective. You may think a kid that's good enough to start at QB as a Freshman at Baga is a liability, but I have a feeling they and sportbooks aren't too concerned about him.