Bama: would you take +18?

[clg003]

The real question is how you could possibly have over two thousand posts that literally no one cared enough to even react to.

Dude the day I care about a reaction score is the day my life becomes barely worth living. But please tell me more about your reaction score so I can dream about the good life.

 

[Dwinstitles]

This isnt directed at you btw....but it says no sportsbook is going to jump out the window with a huge line on a QB they havent seen play in live action yet outside of very little mop up duty. (Bryce Young). Of course bookies want to make the line +28 based on what they have seen from us the last 2 times we played teams in the top 15. (Clemson and UNC) But that is a huge risk as well.

Bookies dont care about what Bama did last year. All the best players from that team are in the NFL right now. If Bama is going to take a slight step back, this is the year it could happen and this is the game it could happen in.

They not LSU it's bama bruh it's like people thinking we took a step back after 99-00 them boys are loaded if u have followed recruiting.

 

[Go Canes!!]

Dude the day I care about a reaction score is the day my life becomes barely worth living. But please tell me more about your reaction score so I can dream about the good life.

Cmon you cared enough to bring it up.

“10K post and you still have no idea how a forum works?”

 

[scrantoncane]

This isnt directed at you btw....but it says no sportsbook is going to jump out the window with a huge line on a QB they havent seen play in live action yet outside of very little mop up duty. (Bryce Young). Of course bookies want to make the line +28 based on what they have seen from us the last 2 times we played teams in the top 15. (Clemson and UNC) But that is a huge risk as well.

Bookies dont care about what Bama did last year. All the best players from that team are in the NFL right now. If Bama is going to take a slight step back, this is the year it could happen and this is the game it could happen in.

But other books had already made it -17ish and took action. That’s how lines are made. They open early with smaller limits, then watch which side the players they have flagged as sharp hit. They then move the line accordingly (say, -13.5 to -14.5), and if the sharp hits it at -14.5, they keep going til the sharp guys stop.

in this case, the sharps were around -17. Yet circa posted -13.5. I’m not sure why they posted it so low, they had to know that number was gonna get hit. And it clearly did. But they either have us power rated fairly high, or (more likely) they are lower on Bama than the rest of the market. Either way, it’s a good sign cause circa is widely known to be the sharpest licensed US Sportsbook.

 

[Jassid82]

They not LSU it's bama bruh it's like people thinking we took a step back after 99-00 them boys are loaded if u have followed recruiting.

You know I follow recruiting. LOL..And yeah but just like us in 2003 when we had all that talent around Brock Berlin..it still didnt prevent us from losing games we shouldnt have because of him. You can have all 5* guys and first round draft picks in your locker room but if you dont have a QB....You got nothing. Nobody knows anything about Bryce young besides the fact he was a 5* and Saban didnt give him much of any experience last year because he was trying to win Mac Jones or Devanta Smith the Heisman. Lets see if that comes back to bite him especially in game 1.

For this to not be a +21.5 or worse spread at this point shows the sportsbook isnt sold on leaning too far on a hunch that Bama reloaded at QB.

 

[Cajuncane]

As a guy that’s had 10 surgeries including two replacements I don’t doubt that King might be able to play but my concern is what happens when he takes a shot to that knee which IS gonna happen if he takes off which he has to do cause it’s a major part of his game.
Also if he’s worried about taking off and being hit which is only natural considering his injury it removes a lot of what makes him so good cause he’s not that great of a pocket passer….jmo

don’t know why but I have a feeling that if he does start the game either TVD or Garcia are playing when the game ends so how do you feel with one of them leading the team at the end ..

 

[Jassid82]

But other books had already made it -17ish and took action. That’s how lines are made. They open early with smaller limits, then watch which side the players they have flagged as sharp hit. They then move the line accordingly (say, -13.5 to -14.5), and if the sharp hits it at -14.5, they keep going til the sharp guys stop.

in this case, the sharps were around -17. Yet circa posted -13.5. I’m not sure why they posted it so low, they had to know that number was gonna get hit. And it clearly did. But they either have us power rated fairly high, or (more likely) they are lower on Bama than the rest of the market. Either way, it’s a good sign cause circa is widely known to be the sharpest licensed US Sportsbook.

I agree with your post. But all im saying is that we lost to Clemson by 25 (should have been more probably) and we lost to UNC by 36 (should have also been more probably) and the Bama line opened at less than +21...That is all I needed to see regarding how sportbooks feel about opening too high on an unknown QB.

If Mac Jones had decided to take the free year and come back and play QB to try and win the Heisman..this line would be +28 by now and probably higher by kickoff. Thats my only point.

 

[clg003]

Cmon you cared enough to bring it up.

“10K post and you still have no idea how a forum works?”

What... how on earth do you equate that to a reaction score?

The irony of you trolling my post saying he wasn't asking me a question... like that's how forums work.

Maybe we need a new sticky that explains how people should not post replies unless a question is directed to them or else the reaction score fan girls will have to jump in. This is the lamest conversation I have had on this board ever.

 

[Novacane32000]

Yes, I take the 18 points ( I actually took 17.5).

My observation the last 3 years is that you take the team that has the overwhelming numbers in returning starters for the first game of the year no matter what the spread is and regardless of them being the favorite or the dog.

They will cover over 70% of the time. It works best for the first game of the year. In the 2nd game, your odds go down near 60% and by game 3 there is no advantage.

 

[Go Canes!!]

What... how on earth do you equate that to a reaction score?

The irony of you trolling my post saying he wasn't asking me a question... like that's how forums work.

Maybe we need a new sticky that explains how people should not post replies unless a question is directed to them or else the reaction score fan girls will have to jump in. This is the lamest conversation I have had on this board ever.

Who are you kidding, with that reaction score it’s the only conversation you’ve ever had on this board ever.

 

[chilltill]

Bet Bama, if they cover it takes the away the sting a little bit of Miami losing. If Miami covers, you lose the money, but it means Miami played competent which is a very good sign.

exactly if i go bama and miami wins that means i can put money on the canes all season so it'll be a win win for me. i like bama more in a parlay with ND so far

 

[clg003]

Who are you kidding, with that reaction score it’s the only conversation you’ve ever had on this board ever.

And judging by your score and post count you haven't had a real conversation outside of your mom's basement in the last 3 years.

 

[kyle_schick]

Why is it likely that King is not 100% when all reports are to the contrary?

I get you don't want people to know if your QB is f*cked, but you probably also wouldn't consistently say "he's beating all his benchmarks and will be ready for the opener."

Although I don't think it will happen, I can totally see King being held out due to "an abundance of precaution to his rehab" so that he doesn't get killed, which could potentially throw the season.

 

[TheProf]

All of these teams were much worse than expected. There might be one quality team on that list.

2008 - Clemson goes 7-6
2009 - VT goes 10-3 finishes ranked 10th
2012 - Michigan goes 8-5 finishes ranked 24th
2013 - VT goes 8-5
2014 - WVU goes 7-6
2015 - Wisconsin goes 10-3 finishes ranked 21st
2016 - USC goes 10-3 finished ranked 3rd
2017 - FSU goes 7-6
2018 - Louisville goes 2-10
2019 - Duke goes 5-7

I had forgotten that USC team finished ranked so high after that crazy Rose Bowl. They did go 10-3, but it is hard to look at this resume and not question a final ranking of 3rd.

2016 USC Trojans Schedule and Results | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

2016 USC Trojans Schedule and Results

www.sports-reference.com

 

[Go Canes!!]

And judging by your score and post count you haven't had a real conversation outside of your mom's basement in the last 3 years.

Im starting to see why no one interacts with you.

 

[NJshoreCane]

That FSU game has entered my mind several times. I haven't gone back to watch the highlights or read a recap, but I remember FSU being right there with them, and I think their starting QB got hurt in the 2nd half, which sealed it (it may have been too late to come back anyways, but I remember it being a game).

FSU couldn't do anything offensively.
3 turnovers, a blocked punt, and a blocked FG is what sealed the deal for FSU.

Neither team had 300 total yards.
Other than the TD pass to Ridley, Hurts was 9-17 for 46 yards.
Bama played the cleaner game.

 

[Dwinstitles]

You know I follow recruiting. LOL..And yeah but just like us in 2003 when we had all that talent around Brock Berlin..it still didnt prevent us from losing games we shouldnt have because of him. You can have all 5* guys and first round draft picks in your locker room but if you dont have a QB....You got nothing. Nobody knows anything about Bryce young besides the fact he was a 5* and Saban didnt give him much of any experience last year because he was trying to win Mac Jones or Devanta Smith the Heisman. Lets see if that comes back to bite him especially in game 1.

For this to not be a +21.5 or worse spread at this point shows the sportsbook isnt sold on leaning too far on a hunch that Bama reloaded at QB.

I agree with most of what your saying and u bring up good points. My thing where my difference of opinion lies is that the rating of recruits are more accurate now.....also with the resume of evaluations Nick has I'm expecting great players regardless of history. So what your saying yea your right but for me where I see your point then waver is the difference in time from 2000's to now. I'm expecting Young to be legit and prepared.

 

[NJshoreCane]

If you are putting real money on Miami...why don't you just wipe your *** with the money instead?

Nick Saban has made Bama bettors rich in season openers

Alabama is 12-1 against the spread in season openers since hiring Nick Saban in 2007. Bettors who have risked $1,000 per game have made nearly $10,000 in profits.

www.al.com

Nice...
Law of averages.

What's tempting me to bet on Miami is all of this info on how Bama is the easy money bet.

 

[MainLineCane]

1. Bet or move on is how you lose money. With most other teams, I bet using power ratings. With Miami, I have an in-depth knowledge of the team that allows me to break down matchups and anticipate scheme. I also seem to end up betting them every week regardless.

2. 18 is not too many in any P5 game. That is an absurd statement. I would research Bama's win margins vs P5 teams, but the notion is too absurd to even waste 5 min on that research.

I love it when someone comes down from on high and tries to give FREE gambling advice.

As we ALL know. Those who can do. Those who can't post.

Glad you've developed your own proven betting method that has made you millions. Or people pay you HUGE $$$ to hear you pontificate on how to play and win EVERYTIMEl. Oh you haven't made billions!? ? Hmmm.

So if that's not you...Then your advice is worth only the time it took me to read it. But thanks anyway.

No offense intended Scranton but there is a reason it's called gambling. No one has a proven surefire method. I didn't offer anyone any advice. I just said bet at 18 or move on. But that seems to have gotten you upset.

Listen everyone has their own method.. No need to prove or discuss. So NO SALE SIRI I'd rather stick to and keep winning $$$ with COCO the CHIMP than switch to someone else's BS method.

Have a good one

 

[NJshoreCane]

Bet Bama, if they cover it takes the away the sting a little bit of Miami losing. If Miami covers, you lose the money, but it means Miami played competent which is a very good sign.

Not a bad way to go.
I always thought about Miami in a pick 'em game for the Natty.
How much would I pay to see them win it?
Bet that much against them.

I couldn't do it though. Would never bet against my Canes.
My thinking would be I was the reason they lost.
I'd probably take the winnings and burn it to kill the evil juju.