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Bama: would you take +18?

scrantoncane

scrantoncane

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Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.
 
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I don't feel comfortable with the line, but King likely not being 100% and potentially not playing at all makes the line make some sense. Add in the fact that the run defense was atrocious and Bama is setup to run the ball as well as anyone else.
 
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I'd take The U -3 and/or Bama +21, assuming reasonable betting odds.

It's important to bear in mind this is a non-conference opener. If Bama gets way ahead, they have no reason to leave a bunch of starters in to pile on points against what will be a very physical defense. At the same time, if they have a healthy lead, it would probably also make sense to pull some starters on D, leaving looking closer than it actually was at the end. I'd be very, very surprised if Miami doesn't score 21+ points assuming King is 100%.
 
TheProf said:
I don't feel comfortable with the line, but King likely not being 100% and potentially not playing at all makes the line make some sense. Add in the fact that the run defense was atrocious and Bama is setup to run the ball as well as anyone else.
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Why is it likely that King is not 100% when all reports are to the contrary?

I get you don't want people to know if your QB is f*cked, but you probably also wouldn't consistently say "he's beating all his benchmarks and will be ready for the opener."
 
TemplarCane said:
Depends on if Bama’s defense or special teams scores or gives their offense a few short field opportunities. The game could snowball out of control if there’s a quick 14-point swing in Bama’s favor.
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I definitely hear you on TO's but I don't think it gets out of hand unless they can just run on us at will a la UNC. The best thing to come out of last season was developing resilience. We came back to win a few games and should have beat OSU after going down 21-0.

Naturally, all assuming King is healthy. But this team started showing fight and a backbone and that's been sorely lacking for a very long time.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
I definitely hear you on TO's but I don't think it gets out of hand unless they can just run on us at will a la UNC. The best thing to come out of last season was developing resilience. We came back to win a few games and should have beat OSU after going down 21-0.

Naturally, all assuming King is healthy. But this team started showing fight and a backbone and that's been sorely lacking for a very long time.
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True, with the caveat Bama is a different animal than NC State or Oklahoma State.
 
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TemplarCane said:
True, with the caveat Bama is a different animal than NC State or Oklahoma State.
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Of course, and we could throw in a few more. But I also genuinely think this year's team will be significantly better than last year's team. I think the King/Lashlee combination both on and off the field really take a leap in year two, combined with Chaney and Rooster and a veteran OL.

I think Manny taking over D with Simpson back starts to look like the early Diaz Miami defenses. I think Ford and Nesta are a more talented combo at DT than McIntosh and Norton, and hopefully will offset any deficiencies at DE, which I'm less concerned about than most. I'm still worried about the LB's, but I LOVE the moves of Smith and Carter down a line. I think the pass D is one of the best in the country at the end of the season. And I think having Shoop to look at things and help game plan will materially help with the holes Diaz's defense have shown from time to time.

Basically everything that needed to change or grow since last season has changed or grown.
 
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Bama has had a couple good performances opening weekend but generally they have not been as sharp as they are later in the season. 18 is too many with what Miami brings back. Just too much to replace with a new scheme for Bama to come out and be razor sharp in week 1. I think this game will be close into the 2nd half.
 
scrantoncane said:
Ok, take off the orange and green glasses. I’ll leave it at that.

You taking the points? If so, kindly give a short breakdown as to why (and don’t just O/G glasses me and tell me how canes roll).

I haven’t bet it, but 18 seems like a lot with the Bama returning production being such an issue.

it opened around -17, but Circa opened -13.5 and it immediately got hit hard and moved to around -17. My guess is there’s lots of pros trying to middle that 14-17.

IDK, to me, 18 is a lot. I don’t wear the glasses. Bama has a new QB, OC, and basically all skill players. Yes, they are nasty athletes, but 18 is a lot IMO.

thoughts? Respectfully request that any response has an opinion to support the conclusion.
Click to expand...
I'll take bama once it hits 16.5, other wise, that's a no touch situation
 
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If we're taking the orange and green glasses off and you could get me to bet against my team, I'd take bama and the points easy right now. We may return a lot from last year but last years team got freight trained by the team that got freight trained by the team that got freight trained by bama. I just don't think we're on their level or even close yet. They out talent Miami at almost every position and they are built to dominate in the trenches and I'm pretty sure they're gonna do just that. King, I love the guy and what he brings but he's hurt and this will be the second year in a row with no spring practice for the King/Lash combo jam. I hope he comes into fall camp 110% because we'll need his play making ability and leadership badly to stay within 3 td's. The bottom line is we're looking to make a huge step up while hoping that they take a big step back. I'd have to bet big on Manny and I'm nowhere near ready to do that. He may be good at making adjustments but that just means he wasn't ready in the first place. For 15 years I keep looking for Miami to step up in a big game and out side of ND 17 they just haven't done it. bama has given up more than 20 points in their opener one time since 2010. I'll guess bama 45-17 right now.
If I were to bet this game it would be at the last minute and a full fall practice where King just balls out and I hear about 6/8 transferring because they'll never see the field again and the young receivers are dominating.
I'll take Miami in every game after bama.

Miami "if"
better receiver play
better dl play even after having two drafted in first and second round
way better lb play
Bolden returns to early season form
Mallory can step way up
way way better ol play
King is 100% and gets better at the deep ball

bama "if"
they can't replace what they lost
they aren't as dominate as they have been
the offensive coaching takes a big step back
 
If CFB were plug and play every year, this would be an easy bet,
but there's too many unknowns on the Bama side other than the fact that they're loaded with talent.

Bama beat FSU in '17 on special teams and defense. FSU also had 3 turnovers.
The game will be "relatively" low scoring unless we give them the short field or get burned a few times over the top if their running game gets going.
For the purposes of this thread i'm thinking a game similar to the ND/Bama game last year, hopefully without the ugly start ND had.

We better show some balls.
Miami -17 and the Under.
 
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SayWhat said:
Bama will cover with Saban at the helm wanting to prove a point to the S. FL recruits. They won't back off an inch even if they go to the backups. Those 2nd and 3rd teamers are always chomping at the bit.
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Seems like half the Bama team is S.FL recruits and we all know how they love an opportunity to sht on Miami. This is what has me concerned the most whenever S.FL players get an opportunity to play vs us they seem to ball out.
 
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