The Talent Debate

[MiamiJoe]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

So then Golden wasn't the problem these past 5 years. Gotcha.

Actually Golden was part of the problem, but not the whole problem in my opinion.

The biggest failure of the program in the last 5 years has been recruiting. Golden's recruiting classes have been dismal. Part of that is Golden and company getting no respect locally, part of that is a scheme nobody wanted to play in, and part of that is the University not wanting to spend money on basics like an indoor practice facility and an on-campus stadium that would attract recruits

The on campus stadium will never happen as Coral Gables will never approve one.

 

[Cans4life]

The talent debate is really pretty simple. We have enough talent on this roster to win 10 games and subsequently the ACC Coastal but not enough to consistently beat teams like FSU and Notre Dame. We were a loss to Cincy and half back pass in the snow away from winning 10 games last year with the worst coaching staff I've ever seen in any sport. We return mostly the same team with some helpful additions. Logic dictates we should win 9-11 games this year if you believe Richt and Co. are an upgrade, which I do.

 

[Miami_Football]

if we don't win 10 games it's a complete failure. we should end up playing 14 games this year

 

[TAMPA_CANE]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

TBT, i don't see FSU coming in here and beating us at Joe Robbie.

Based on what? FSU has only won ever single game played there.

 

[The Franchise]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

87 is being extremely generous. I'd guess he's in the low 70's.

I'd also argue that our DL is going to be pretty good. Assuming that's the case, that means we are better than most teams on our schedule at the two most important positions in college football, i.e. DL and QB.

But no, we are gonna win 7 games because we need 5 stars, 3 deep, at every position before we can expect to beat Coastal teams

And to answer your last question, zero.

 

[252cane]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

 

[The Franchise]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

87 is being extremely generous. I'd guess he's in the low 70's.

I'd also argue that our DL is going to be pretty good. Assuming that's the case, that means we are better than most teams on our schedule at the two most important positions in college football, i.e. DL and QB.

But no, we are gonna win 7 games because we need 5 stars, 3 deep, at every position before we can expect to beat Coastal teams

And to answer your last question, zero.

Yep. And all those bogus stats and probabilities the other dope was posting only apply AGAINST UM. All the other teams in the Coastal will beat everyone they're supposed to beat.

 

[The Franchise]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

Now you've proclaimed yourself some sort of master evaluator. You couldn't evaluate the difference between a **** and a snowball.

 

[252cane]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

Now you've proclaimed yourself some sort of master evaluator. You couldn't evaluate the difference between a **** and a snowball.

Another corny *** joke. I didnt say i was evaluating. Thats what coaches get paid millions to do. But some of you cant comprehend just because there is a few guys who were barely 4 stars coming out doesn't mean they are actually good.

 

[The Franchise]

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

Now you've proclaimed yourself some sort of master evaluator. You couldn't evaluate the difference between a **** and a snowball.

Another corny *** joke. I didnt say i was evaluating. Thats what coaches get paid millions to do. But some of you cant comprehend just because there is a few guys who were barely 4 stars coming out doesn't mean they are actually good.

Now, you're talking about coaches. Where is this poll from coaches that claims UM isn't a talented team and shouldn't win the Coastal? Where have the coaches spoken on our 4 stars not being as good as other teams' 4 stars?

 

[252cane]

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

Now you've proclaimed yourself some sort of master evaluator. You couldn't evaluate the difference between a **** and a snowball.

Another corny *** joke. I didnt say i was evaluating. Thats what coaches get paid millions to do. But some of you cant comprehend just because there is a few guys who were barely 4 stars coming out doesn't mean they are actually good.

Now, you're talking about coaches. Where is this poll from coaches that claims UM isn't a talented team and shouldn't win the Coastal? Where have the coaches spoken on our 4 stars not being as good as other teams' 4 stars?

Have you been paying attention? Everytime the coaches say something some of you think its for motivation when its not.

I just read a article the other day saying how richt feels that the talent on this team definitely needs to be upgraded.

 

[Dwinstitles]

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

You never have anything thats actual football related. Everything is a corny *** joke and screaming about this so called "talent".

Its called player evaluations. Just because a guy was a 4 star doesnt make him better than a team with 3 stars.

Now you've proclaimed yourself some sort of master evaluator. You couldn't evaluate the difference between a **** and a snowball.

Another corny *** joke. I didnt say i was evaluating. Thats what coaches get paid millions to do. But some of you cant comprehend just because there is a few guys who were barely 4 stars coming out doesn't mean they are actually good.

That four star comment is the hard truth. We all gonna find out though soon

 

[Gransapo]

This is the only ranking that matters. We should win the Coastal every year.

 

[supacane]

U know its the ones who were gagging Golden claiming we should be winning 7/8 games and be ok. They are convinced Golden was the Saviour and he sucked because we have no players on the team. Richt can say what he wants. We do not have depth to make noise nationally, but kicking the Coastal ***, no question about it. I see teams loaded every year win 8/9 games but falter because they have no QB. We do not have that problem. Talent allows u to turn tight games and games against evenly matched teams. You should not need loaded teams to win the Coastal.

 

[DTP]

Of course Richt thinks the talent needs to be upgraded. There's not a single person here saying that the talent level is top notch and UM should be able to whoop every team based solely on said talent. If Miami is going to get back to competing for national titles, the talent level has to improve. HOWEVER, the current level of talent on the roster, along with a huge improvement in coaching is more than enough for this team to win 10 games and play in the ACCCG.

 

[Novacane32000]

Except it doesn't work that way. It's basic combinatorial math. Just because you're more talented than team X doesn't mean your odds of beating them are 100%.

We might be a couple slots ahead of a team like Virginia Tech. So let's say our chance of beating them on talent alone is 60/40. We might be a couple slots ahead of Duke. Let's say our chance of beating them is also 60/40.

In a two game season of Miami vs Duke and Va Tech...if the odds of winning each game is 60%, you might say we should go 2-0. But you'd be wrong. Our odds are 60% x 60% which is 36%. So odds are GREATER that you WON'T go 2-0 in that scenario

The more games you string together, the lower the odds of a clean sweep, especially if the talent gap is small.

For that reason, it's very unlikely that we will win 10 games.

Except statistics only matter when considered in the context of a large sum. That calculation doesn't work for all teams, individually. So, it's not applicable in this instance, at all. ... Unless you're a gambler.

In that case, it helps degenerate gamblers (no offense) to play the odds ...

But I'm guessing gamblers lost a lot of money betting on UNC to lose games to end the season last year, huh??? Since "basic combinatorial math" probably gave them a 10% chance to finish the season 11-0.

Back on topic ... Canes have enough talent on the roster to win the Coastal. With improved coaching from Richt and Diaz, this team should be better than ANY team the previous staff fielded ... And they won 9 games, without a guy projected to be a 1st round pick playing QB.

Like flipping a coin, winning/losing is a binary event. The number of times you flip is irrelevant, if you flip it once - the odds of getting heads is 50%. The odds of getting heads twice in a row is 25%. Etc. That's the math.

That's not affected by sample size.

Similarly, the odds of winning 10 "winnable" games in a row is very low - even if Miami is favored in every game. It matters HOW MUCH you'ree favored by. If our odds of winning games are up in the 90% range, running off a string of victories becomes more likely. If our odds of winning each game are in the 60% range, the math proves out that it becomes very difficult to go on a run.

That has nothing to do with gambling, it's simply a mathematical fact.

The Canes might win the Coastal. My point is just that the odds are quite a bit lower than you seem to expect.

:11263323124_b207743


Why are the odds lower?

If your theory is that we won't win every game we're projected to win, does that carry over to us not losing every game we're projected to lose?

I mean, the spread between us and ND is the same as the spread between us and UNC ...

It's just the math. But look man, take the math out of it.

In 1995, the Chicago Bulls went 72-10. That team had Michael Jordan in his prime, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, etc.

They still lost to: Orlando, Seattle, Indiana, Denver, Phoenix, Miami, New York, Toronto, and Charlotte.

They were favored to win each one of those games. They still lost. Why? Because anyone who knows sports will tell you - it's hard to win every single game you're supposed to win. It generally doesn't happen.

That's why there's only been one perfect season in NFL history. There have been plenty of great teams. How come Joe Montana never did it?

It's just the way it is. Winning every game you're supposed to win doesn't normally happen... the vast majority of times you win some of the games you're expected to lose, and lose a handful of games you're expected to win.

Now you take that and you look under the hood and ask why, that's where you get in to your probabilities and math. It actually makes sense and is predictable. But even without math, it's something that everybody who follows sports knows intuitively.

Most people don't get the math -- There's a reason Vegas will come out with an O/U of 8 to 9 wins for us. We will not be overwhelming favorites in all of our games.

In a game where a team is favored by 3.5 to 7 points they have a 65% chance of winning. That is a fact based on the historical results of nearly 3000 games and so is a pretty decent sample size.

Even a 12 point fav will lose 1 in 5 games.

The day we are consistent 10 to 14 point fav over nearly all of our opponents ,then we can reasonably expect to win 10+ games every year.

We could win 10 this year-the odds are just not in our favor.

 

[kryptonite]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

So then Golden wasn't the problem these past 5 years. Gotcha.

Actually Golden was part of the problem, but not the whole problem in my opinion.

The biggest failure of the program in the last 5 years has been recruiting. Golden's recruiting classes have been dismal. Part of that is Golden and company getting no respect locally, part of that is a scheme nobody wanted to play in, and part of that is the University not wanting to spend money on basics like an indoor practice facility and an on-campus stadium that would attract recruits

Golden's biggest issue was recruiting, yet he put numerous players in the NFL during his tenure. I totally get you now.

Crazy how we were struggling with teams that had less or even zero NFL players, despite us having more NFL players on last year's roster than Alabama and FSU.

You're definitely on to something here.

Wait, you're claiming that golden was a better game day coach than recruiter?

 

[The Franchise]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

So then Golden wasn't the problem these past 5 years. Gotcha.

Actually Golden was part of the problem, but not the whole problem in my opinion.

The biggest failure of the program in the last 5 years has been recruiting. Golden's recruiting classes have been dismal. Part of that is Golden and company getting no respect locally, part of that is a scheme nobody wanted to play in, and part of that is the University not wanting to spend money on basics like an indoor practice facility and an on-campus stadium that would attract recruits

Golden's biggest issue was recruiting, yet he put numerous players in the NFL during his tenure. I totally get you now.

Crazy how we were struggling with teams that had less or even zero NFL players, despite us having more NFL players on last year's roster than Alabama and FSU.

You're definitely on to something here.

Wait, you're claiming that golden was a better game day coach than recruiter?

Reading comprehension, friend. Try it.

 

[SoldierForThisU]

Every die hard knows this team is seriously devoed of talent and depth.

You say that...

But you have a plethora of ****suckers around here saying that there's a chance to 11-1/10-2.

Devoed? Like "Whip It?"