The Talent Debate

[Bunker Mentality]

Its called talent development, like i said. Diaz can say what he wants about players on the team. They can't be much worse than what he had at Ms St. Boise St, TCU, Michigan St, Missouri. They can dream of getting most of our players out of high school. They drag us up and down the field anyway. Talent development. Period. I expect Richt to do a much better job than Shannon and Golden and be a better gameday coach. Which will count for two wins. 10-2 against a pathetic schedule. They give me no crap about 3/4 years. You have a QB your almost set on offense, we have top 2 in the league. You pressure the QB you are almost set on D. Coach Kool will do that. Only at Miami there is a mentality that only a roster full of 5 stars can win anything, like Duke has, or Baylor, or Ok St. Show me there rosters of 5 stars.

I'm not buying it. We are as good talent-wise as Houston. People blow like flags in the wind and can't evaluate what's in front of them. We have enough. If we play together we should win the costal with the current state of the conference. We are returning one of the better QBs in CFB and a o-line with experience and better coaching. Not to mention the "Kool" or Diaz factor on defense. Just on scheme, coaching, competition, youth and play-calling we should be a much better football team. Stop it.

I think you guys agree...

I was echoing his sentiment

 

[Geo305]

Those rankings from 247 actually outdated. It's not including 2016 class. We're probably a bit higher. We lack quality depth in some areas. 2017 & 2018 classes can fix that as long as Richt can win ball games and convince the young guns to come in at said spots. In a year or two we should be within the top 10 according to 247 composite.

A lot falls on coaching too. I can point out some dudes that were 5 stars that were overhyped and some that we're 3 stars who were underrated. BUT, no excuse why we shouldn't be within that top 10 with the talent sitting in the backyard. Richt will fix that in due time.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

The OP was discussing Miami's talent (as defined by 247's recruiting rankings) versus the top teams in FBS. Only a total homer would say Miami is a top 10 team in regards to total talent but top 20 is very reasonable. That talent was enough to muster 8 wins despite the worst coaching staff in FBS. Even if the new staff is only a marginal upgrade, expecting less than 9 regular season wins with this schedule is pathetic. Kicking FSU's *** is a given. They needed desperation fourth quarter comebacks to beat Al Golden's coaching. Miami beats them easy this year.

I don't believe that a roster full of kids chosen and evaluated by Al Golden is going to win 10 games. But that's just an opinion.

I think Richt has proven he's capable of winning 10 games, but that's with his own roster of players.

I think we have some elite guys, but not enough. I think this team is top-heavy. I think the middle-of-the-pack, 2/3* type guys that Golden/D'Onofrio had to watch film on and evaluate and decide to offer are probably not very good.

That's my hunch.

I think that Richt looks at guys like Langham and Gus and Redwine and Young... guys we think are decent.... and says "are you ****ing kidding me?"

That's what I think. I think he's used to seeing better talent and he comes off as not being very impressed by what he's seen so far.

Take it with a grain of salt

I agree peoplr here think those kids r great but MR knows whos great. He s not going to openly say they,suck but they taking jabs if u read between the lines.

Besides FSU and ND, what team that Miami plays this season has more talent?

That doesn't mean the team will win every game outside of those two. The talent difference isn't big enough where you can guaranteed wins vs unc or vt and etc.

We destroyed VT in their house 2 years ago on a Thursday night, and beat them 30-20 last year at home with our ****** coaching. Are you kidding? I know Fuentes will make it interesting but but they'll likely have a new QB as well and be facing what will be one of the more talented, better coached, and far more aggressive defenses than Miami has fielded in a long time. I make no guarantees because i'm not lacing them up, but let's not pump up the opposition to play contrarian.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

Thanks for posting that.

But I think the point most people are making is that there are only 2 teams ahead of us on that list on our schedule.

So, going 10-2 is not unreasonable. UNC is ranked 28th, and we get them at home.

The "can we win the natty next year" crowd might be a bit unrealistic. But the "10 win is a must" crowd is basing their opinion on the link you just posted. Our roster is more talented than everyone else on the schedule, except FSU and ND.

Except it doesn't work that way. It's basic combinatorial math. Just because you're more talented than team X doesn't mean your odds of beating them are 100%.

We might be a couple slots ahead of a team like Virginia Tech. So let's say our chance of beating them on talent alone is 60/40. We might be a couple slots ahead of Duke. Let's say our chance of beating them is also 60/40.

In a two game season of Miami vs Duke and Va Tech...if the odds of winning each game is 60%, you might say we should go 2-0. But you'd be wrong. Our odds are 60% x 60% which is 36%. So odds are GREATER that you WON'T go 2-0 in that scenario

The more games you string together, the lower the odds of a clean sweep, especially if the talent gap is small.

For that reason, it's very unlikely that we will win 10 games.

Except statistics only matter when considered in the context of a large sum. That calculation doesn't work for all teams, individually. So, it's not applicable in this instance, at all. ... Unless you're a gambler.

In that case, it helps degenerate gamblers (no offense) to play the odds ...

But I'm guessing gamblers lost a lot of money betting on UNC to lose games to end the season last year, huh??? Since "basic combinatorial math" probably gave them a 10% chance to finish the season 11-0.

Back on topic ... Canes have enough talent on the roster to win the Coastal. With improved coaching from Richt and Diaz, this team should be better than ANY team the previous staff fielded ... And they won 9 games, without a guy projected to be a 1st round pick playing QB.

Like flipping a coin, winning/losing is a binary event. The number of times you flip is irrelevant, if you flip it once - the odds of getting heads is 50%. The odds of getting heads twice in a row is 25%. Etc. That's the math.

That's not affected by sample size.

Similarly, the odds of winning 10 "winnable" games in a row is very low - even if Miami is favored in every game. It matters HOW MUCH you'ree favored by. If our odds of winning games are up in the 90% range, running off a string of victories becomes more likely. If our odds of winning each game are in the 60% range, the math proves out that it becomes very difficult to go on a run.

That has nothing to do with gambling, it's simply a mathematical fact.

The Canes might win the Coastal. My point is just that the odds are quite a bit lower than you seem to expect.

Right but you have to compare that with everyone else in the coastal. So even if our odds/likelihood isn't as high as (insert name here) thinks, it's still higher than most everyone in the coastal save UNC who lost a 6th year senior QB. So yea, i'd put us way up there.

 

[canes614]

I hate to say it....Golden picked up quality players just didn't get all of them in each class. You can field a good team with quality players from different classes. Fortunately.....most of our players are from sfla where there's more "productive talent" than anywhere else in the country.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

We did that last season on talent alone, bruh. We had an absolute dumpster fire of a coaching situation and our HC got fired in the middle of the season, too. The coastal is not that good and the first three games are pre-season.

I'm not saying we're gonna be CFB world-beaters, but let's get something straight: We only lost to one team in the costal division last season... I'll repeat, we only lost to 1 team in the coastal last season.

We will be 3-0 and have to win 7 of the next 9 games; 6 of which will be against costal teams we went 5-1 against last season with the aforementioned dumpster-fire. If healthy, we will have a better o-line, better coaching, better WRs, better TEs, better RBs, best QB, better scheme, better play-calling...

Why is it hard to fathom we can win 10 games? TBT, i don't see FSU coming in here and beating us at Joe Robbie.

 

[Canefam]

We have okay talent....not good enough to compete at the highest levels

I agree. We have enough to win the coastal every year... Beyond that, we need to do better with the big boys and the QB.

 

[brock]

All I know is that we have more than enough to win the coastal especially with the coaches and schemes we have on our staff, anyone telling you different is a **** troll... We literally have been fighting the last 5 years with 1 or both hands tied behind our back by playing donofrios/golden passive/ read and react bullsh*t and predictive offensive behavior/ playcalling. People don't understand with great qb play anything can happen...

 

[sabrose]

We have had a handicapped defense due to the coaches under Golden. We had an offense that was predictable. Just those 2 things changing cam make this team notably better .But you still have to play the games and next season will be an intriguing one.

 

[CANE1775]

To the OP, if we're looking at straight math, then doesn't that math also apply to the other teams that are in our conference? You're using odds of winning a certain amount of games, but then you're not applying them to all of the other teams in our division. Yeah, it may sound good to say we only have an "x percent" chance of winning 10 games, but then you also need to compare Duke's, UNC's, Va Tech's, UVA's, etc chances of winning ten games as well. In comparison to the other squad's in our conference, I'd have to believe that we compare favorably with winning ten, and especially with winning the Coastal.

With that said, here's what I do know. There have been 11 ACC Championship games. Of those 11, 9 of the teams that represented the Coastal Division ended the year with ten or more wins. The only two exceptions were Ga Tech in 06 (9 wins) and Ga Tech again in 2012 (7 wins). History shows that IF we win the Coastal, it's more likely than not that we will have double digit wins.

 

[MIATL]

To the OP, if we're looking at straight math, then doesn't that math also apply to the other teams that are in our conference? You're using odds of winning a certain amount of games, but then you're not applying them to all of the other teams in our division. Yeah, it may sound good to say we only have an "x percent" chance of winning 10 games, but then you also need to compare Duke's, UNC's, Va Tech's, UVA's, etc chances of winning ten games as well. In comparison to the other squad's in our conference, I'd have to believe that we compare favorably with winning ten, and especially with winning the Coastal.

With that said, here's what I do know. There have been 11 ACC Championship games. Of those 11, 9 of the teams that represented the Coastal Division ended the year with ten or more wins. The only two exceptions were Ga Tech in 06 (9 wins) and Ga Tech again in 2012 (7 wins). History shows that IF we win the Coastal, it's more likely than not that we will have double digit wins.

Nope.

Mathematical odds only matter when downplaying our chances at success. All the smart guys know statistics only matter for our team ... #sarcasm

 

[Rellyrell]

***** rating services; all I know in 2015, we had 6 players drafted and 2 of the 6 went in the 1st round and 4 of the 6 went in the top 3rounds and we had another 2 who made pretty nice impacts as UDFA, yet we went 6-7. All I know is that we've out recruited Baylor, TCU, Oregon, Iowa, and K State every year, yet they r are making a mockery of teams in their power 5 conferences against teams who are out recruiting them yearly and are considered "traditional powers."

All I know is that besides FSU and Clemson, both of whom are not in our division, we've out recruited every other ACC team for the last 10 years by a land slide, yet we have no Coastal Titles to show for it. Spare me the devoid of talent argument. We have plenty and have had plenty over the last several years to be a constant in the ACC title game. It ain't the stadium, it ain't the facilities, we have had coaching and discipline issues alone. With a new proven winner as a coach, instead of hand me down assistants and MAC coaches with horrible resumes, you will see us actually win double digit games in year one. Just like I banked on Golden not finishing the season last year, I'm banking on at least 10 victories and a bowl win this year.

 

[DTP]

Man, the undercover FSU trolls are getting hot in here.

 

[mirednmediocrity2]

The defensive scheme made it easy for other schools to pick off the DL. No one wanted to play that kind of defense. 3-4, 4-3, doesn't matter if they're playing 2-gap. Miami was scraping for bottom of the barrel guys most of the time while FSU is redshirting 4-5* kids, 2-3 deep.

We basically have gone back to having teams like we had in the years before Schnelly came here: A few talented players surrounded by hopeless JAGS and hack coaches whose ceiling on wins was about 7/8 games once in a while. Hopefully Richt will change this, but he has very little to work with besides a decent QB and a few somewhat talented kids who might do better than we expect now because of better coaching. Not much to pick from when you're only going to get FSU's and UF's sloppy seconds.

 

[LustNCanes]

***** rating services; all I know in 2015, we had 6 players drafted and 2 of the 6 went in the 1st round and 4 of the 6 went in the top 3rounds and we had another 2 who made pretty nice impacts as UDFA, yet we went 6-7. All I know is that we've out recruited Baylor, TCU, Oregon, Iowa, and K State every year, yet they r are making a mockery of teams in their power 5 conferences against teams who are out recruiting them yearly and our considered "traditional powers."

All I know is that besides FSU and Clemson, both of whom are not in our division, we've out recruited every other ACC team for the last 10 years by a land slide, yet we have no Coastal Titles to show for it. Spare me the devoid of talent argument. We have plenty and have had plenty over the last several years to be in constant in the ACC title game. It ain't the stadium, it ain't the facilities, we have had coaching and discipline issues alone. With a new proven winner as a coach, instead of hand me down assistants and MAC coaches with horrible resumes, you will see us actually win double digit games in year one. Just like I banked on Golden not finishing the season last year, I'm banking on at least 10 victories and a bowl win this year.

I'm pumped!!! I'm with you on this!!

 

[Grisha.Otrepyev]

The OP was discussing Miami's talent (as defined by 247's recruiting rankings) versus the top teams in FBS. Only a total homer would say Miami is a top 10 team in regards to total talent but top 20 is very reasonable. That talent was enough to muster 8 wins despite the worst coaching staff in FBS. Even if the new staff is only a marginal upgrade, expecting less than 9 regular season wins with this schedule is pathetic. Kicking FSU's *** is a given. They needed desperation fourth quarter comebacks to beat Al Golden's coaching. Miami beats them easy this year.

I don't believe that a roster full of kids chosen and evaluated by Al Golden is going to win 10 games. But that's just an opinion.

I think Richt has proven he's capable of winning 10 games, but that's with his own roster of players.

I think we have some elite guys, but not enough. I think this team is top-heavy. I think the middle-of-the-pack, 2/3* type guys that Golden/D'Onofrio had to watch film on and evaluate and decide to offer are probably not very good.

That's my hunch.

I think that Richt looks at guys like Langham and Gus and Redwine and Young... guys we think are decent.... and says "are you ****ing kidding me?"

That's what I think. I think he's used to seeing better talent and he comes off as not being very impressed by what he's seen so far.

Take it with a grain of salt

I agree peoplr here think those kids r great but MR knows whos great. He s not going to openly say they,suck but they taking jabs if u read between the lines.

Besides FSU and ND, what team that Miami plays this season has more talent?

I'm not even that bullish on FSU. Who is their QB? Their team strength is their offensive line and by this time everyone knows it's the Dalvin Cook show. Houston exposed them and i'm sure our defense will play better next season. The over/under in my book in 9.5 wins and I fully expect 10. If we don't win 10 games with Brad Kaaya staying upright i'll be disappointed.

Deondre-francois will be the qb. FSU offensive line is not a team strength. They were slightly better than the UF and Miami OLs last year, but all 3 sucked.

People are over reacting to the houston game, it like when Utah or OK "exposed" Bama.

FSU QB broke his ankle or foot, (golson had already quit the team), so Mcgiure played most of the game in a boot and threw 4 picks. Nobody wins games with 5 turnovers.

 

[brock]

The defensive scheme made it easy for other schools to pick off the DL. No one wanted to play that kind of defense. 3-4, 4-3, doesn't matter if they're playing 2-gap. Miami was scraping for bottom of the barrel guys most of the time while FSU is redshirting 4-5* kids, 2-3 deep.

We basically have gone back to having teams like we had in the years before Schnelly came here: A few talented players surrounded by hopeless JAGS and hack coaches whose ceiling on wins was about 7/8 games once in a while. Hopefully Richt will change this, but he has very little to work with besides a decent QB and a few somewhat talented kids who might do better than we expect now because of better coaching. Not much to pick from when you're only going to get FSU's and UF's sloppy seconds.

Lol gtf off our board

 

[brock]

I don't believe that a roster full of kids chosen and evaluated by Al Golden is going to win 10 games. But that's just an opinion.

I think Richt has proven he's capable of winning 10 games, but that's with his own roster of players.

I think we have some elite guys, but not enough. I think this team is top-heavy. I think the middle-of-the-pack, 2/3* type guys that Golden/D'Onofrio had to watch film on and evaluate and decide to offer are probably not very good.

That's my hunch.

I think that Richt looks at guys like Langham and Gus and Redwine and Young... guys we think are decent.... and says "are you ****ing kidding me?"

That's what I think. I think he's used to seeing better talent and he comes off as not being very impressed by what he's seen so far.

Take it with a grain of salt

I agree peoplr here think those kids r great but MR knows whos great. He s not going to openly say they,suck but they taking jabs if u read between the lines.

Besides FSU and ND, what team that Miami plays this season has more talent?

I'm not even that bullish on FSU. Who is their QB? Their team strength is their offensive line and by this time everyone knows it's the Dalvin Cook show. Houston exposed them and i'm sure our defense will play better next season. The over/under in my book in 9.5 wins and I fully expect 10. If we don't win 10 games with Brad Kaaya staying upright i'll be disappointed.

Deondre-francois will be the qb. FSU offensive line is not a team strength. They were slightly better than the UF and Miami OLs last year, but all 3 sucked.

People are over reacting to the houston game, it like when Utah or OK "exposed" Bama.

FSU QB broke his ankle or foot, (golson had already quit the team), so Mcgiure played most of the game in a boot and threw 4 picks. Nobody wins games with 5 turnovers.

And your team( fsu) is also weak at tight end, linebacker and have very inconsistent receivers outside of Rudolph and most of the talented ones your recruited can't even get on the field.

 

[252cane]

To the OP, if we're looking at straight math, then doesn't that math also apply to the other teams that are in our conference? You're using odds of winning a certain amount of games, but then you're not applying them to all of the other teams in our division. Yeah, it may sound good to say we only have an "x percent" chance of winning 10 games, but then you also need to compare Duke's, UNC's, Va Tech's, UVA's, etc chances of winning ten games as well. In comparison to the other squad's in our conference, I'd have to believe that we compare favorably with winning ten, and especially with winning the Coastal.

With that said, here's what I do know. There have been 11 ACC Championship games. Of those 11, 9 of the teams that represented the Coastal Division ended the year with ten or more wins. The only two exceptions were Ga Tech in 06 (9 wins) and Ga Tech again in 2012 (7 wins). History shows that IF we win the Coastal, it's more likely than not that we will have double digit wins.

You have to look at schedules as well. I dont see a team in the coastal winning 10 games this year. Unc has uga and fsu this year, miami has fsu and nd. I give gt and vt around 6 or 7 wins and pitt 7 or 8 and about 7 for duke.

 

[canes614]

The OP was discussing Miami's talent (as defined by 247's recruiting rankings) versus the top teams in FBS. Only a total homer would say Miami is a top 10 team in regards to total talent but top 20 is very reasonable. That talent was enough to muster 8 wins despite the worst coaching staff in FBS. Even if the new staff is only a marginal upgrade, expecting less than 9 regular season wins with this schedule is pathetic. Kicking FSU's *** is a given. They needed desperation fourth quarter comebacks to beat Al Golden's coaching. Miami beats them easy this year.

You are crazy. Fsu is loaded and is solid qb play away from being a playoff team. There is no way this team wins easy. Fsu should have blown them out last year but kept making mistakes and then kaaya got hot.

so with a borderline genius offensive coordinator now calling plays for a now even more experienced kayaa with what we can only assume is going to be a much improved offensive line.. you're expecting worse?

FSU got it's doors blown off by houston, a team it heavily out muscles in talent. In fact there hasn't been one game that I've been impressed by FSU since they won the national championship.

They got annihilated by an inferior oregon team. almost like 5 times that very season.. **** they were down what 3 Touchdowns to NC state?

Fsu is seemingly always loaded, and since the 90s have passed, it has rarely meant anything. If jimbo fisher was truly as good he is made out to be then he wouldn't be having issues with QB play in the first place since that is what he specializes in, and on top of that he has elite talent all around the qb.. so what's the deal?

Fsu "should have" blown miami out every single **** year that that pathetic coach known as al golden was here. They have what everyone deems as elite talent and elite coaching, so what gives?

Fact is without dalvin cook, al golden probably would have won 1 of those 2 games which is flat out... pathetic

What im saying is everybody keeps hanging on too the fact that the last 2 years was close on the scoreboard at the end. Last year fsu was dominating their *** in the first half.

This team is worst this year than the last 2 years too. The 2014 o-line was better and there is no duke, flowers, perryman, dorsett, bush and burns.

Yeah kaaya should be better but the team is actually worse talent wise.

Improved coaching makes talent look MUCH better.....I also think the OL should be much improved, Coley is going to domonate more than Dorsett ....our RB by committee should hold stronger than Duke in big games where he was punished inside....the secondary finally has a real db coach......the D line will be way better....Brads level of expectation should elevate the entire offense vs 2014 raw frosh thrown in the fire early with no experience... we do have some positives here.