The Talent Debate

[SoldierForThisU]

Thanks for posting that.

But I think the point most people are making is that there are only 2 teams ahead of us on that list on our schedule.

So, going 10-2 is not unreasonable. UNC is ranked 28th, and we get them at home.

The "can we win the natty next year" crowd might be a bit unrealistic. But the "10 win is a must" crowd is basing their opinion on the link you just posted. Our roster is more talented than everyone else on the schedule, except FSU and ND.

Except it doesn't work that way. It's basic combinatorial math. Just because you're more talented than team X doesn't mean your odds of beating them are 100%.

We might be a couple slots ahead of a team like Virginia Tech. So let's say our chance of beating them on talent alone is 60/40. We might be a couple slots ahead of Duke. Let's say our chance of beating them is also 60/40.

In a two game season of Miami vs Duke and Va Tech...if the odds of winning each game is 60%, you might say we should go 2-0. But you'd be wrong. Our odds are 60% x 60% which is 36%. So odds are GREATER that you WON'T go 2-0 in that scenario

The more games you string together, the lower the odds of a clean sweep, especially if the talent gap is small.

For that reason, it's very unlikely that we will win 10 games.

Except statistics only matter when considered in the context of a large sum. That calculation doesn't work for all teams, individually. So, it's not applicable in this instance, at all. ... Unless you're a gambler.

In that case, it helps degenerate gamblers (no offense) to play the odds ...

But I'm guessing gamblers lost a lot of money betting on UNC to lose games to end the season last year, huh??? Since "basic combinatorial math" probably gave them a 10% chance to finish the season 11-0.

Back on topic ... Canes have enough talent on the roster to win the Coastal. With improved coaching from Richt and Diaz, this team should be better than ANY team the previous staff fielded ... And they won 9 games, without a guy projected to be a 1st round pick playing QB.

Like flipping a coin, winning/losing is a binary event. The number of times you flip is irrelevant, if you flip it once - the odds of getting heads is 50%. The odds of getting heads twice in a row is 25%. Etc. That's the math.

That's not affected by sample size.

Similarly, the odds of winning 10 "winnable" games in a row is very low - even if Miami is favored in every game. It matters HOW MUCH you'ree favored by. If our odds of winning games are up in the 90% range, running off a string of victories becomes more likely. If our odds of winning each game are in the 60% range, the math proves out that it becomes very difficult to go on a run.

That has nothing to do with gambling, it's simply a mathematical fact.

The Canes might win the Coastal. My point is just that the odds are quite a bit lower than you seem to expect.

:11263323124_b207743


Why are the odds lower?

If your theory is that we won't win every game we're projected to win, does that carry over to us not losing every game we're projected to lose?

I mean, the spread between us and ND is the same as the spread between us and UNC ...

Of course, it does.

 

[SoldierForThisU]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

252 has an IQ of about 87. It's impossible for a guy that limited to process any sort of remotely abstract information.

Stupid lists like that also don't take into account the astronomical importance of the QB position. UM has one of the best QBs in college football, and that can be the great equalizer even if you have less talent at some other spots. Look at last year's FSU game as Exhibit A when Kaaya almost singlehandedly beat a more talented FSU team.

How many teams on our schedule are better at the most important position on the field?

Answer: none.

 

[DTP]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

 

[The Franchise]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

Basically the math suggests that we should win somewhere between 7-8 games.

So then Golden wasn't the problem these past 5 years. Gotcha.

Actually Golden was part of the problem, but not the whole problem in my opinion.

The biggest failure of the program in the last 5 years has been recruiting. Golden's recruiting classes have been dismal. Part of that is Golden and company getting no respect locally, part of that is a scheme nobody wanted to play in, and part of that is the University not wanting to spend money on basics like an indoor practice facility and an on-campus stadium that would attract recruits

Golden's biggest issue was recruiting, yet he put numerous players in the NFL during his tenure. I totally get you now.

Crazy how we were struggling with teams that had less or even zero NFL players, despite us having more NFL players on last year's roster than Alabama and FSU.

You're definitely on to something here.

Wait, you're claiming that golden was a better game day coach than recruiter?

I'm claiming that only if you are reading at a 1st grade level.

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

None of these troglodytes have a legitimate answer to that question.

 

[MIATL]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

You stop it.

The math wizards know what they are talking about ... Their gambling ledgers prove it!

They knew GT would only win 3 games last year, and that UNC would win 11 games, too. It's mathematical, don't ya know?!?

Has nothing to do with what happens on the field ...

 

[The Franchise]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

None of these troglodytes have a legitimate answer to that question.

They try to mask their inability to think by being contrarians. They think their contrarian status makes them the "voice of reason" and that that makes them appear to be smart.

None of them can explain why UM fans are unreasonable for expecting us to win 10 games and the Coastal when sorry *** UNC won 11 and the Coastal last year. They have no answers. All they do is regurgitate the "you guys is dumb for thinking we gots talent" line.

 

[ThomasM]

The same North Carolina that we absolutely CRUSHED the year before.... Yeah, no reason to think we can win 10 games this year.

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

None of these troglodytes have a legitimate answer to that question.

They try to mask their inability to think by being contrarians. They think their contrarian status makes them the "voice of reason" and that that makes them appear to be smart.

None of them can explain why UM fans are unreasonable for expecting us to win 10 games and the Coastal when sorry *** UNC won 11 and the Coastal last year. They have no answers. All they do is regurgitate the "you guys is dumb for thinking we gots talent" line.

 

[brock]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

None of these troglodytes have a legitimate answer to that question.

They try to mask their inability to think by being contrarians. They think their contrarian status makes them the "voice of reason" and that that makes them appear to be smart.

None of them can explain why UM fans are unreasonable for expecting us to win 10 games and the Coastal when sorry *** UNC won 11 and the Coastal last year. They have no answers. All they do is regurgitate the "you guys is dumb for thinking we gots talent" line.

It really makes identifying the trolls and other fans on this site even easier to be quite honest.

 

[80caneMsu]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

 

[Dwinstitles]

Nobody sees a problem with predicting a number of wins based off what the point spread against future opponents MIGHT be? Let's say Miami comes out the gate and crushes their first three underdog opponents, do you believe the point spread against Georgia Tech (4th game) won't jump into double digits? Especially if Tech struggles? The problem with the "math" that some are using is that it's not taking into account any improvement by the new staff. You're assuming games against coastal rivals will all be single digit spreads because that's what they were last year. It's very possible that the spread reaches double digits for every coastal opponent besides UNC.

These dummies are acting like UM fans shouldn't expect UM to improve by hiring infinitely better coaches. We fired Folden because he wasn't getting anything out of the talent that he was bringing in. Why bother firing Folden if everyone just expects the players to play exactly like they've been playing for the past 4 years?

None of these troglodytes have a legitimate answer to that question.

**** we betterimprove

 

[Dwinstitles]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

Trenches win titlesand d

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

 

[The Franchise]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

Madre London is a slug. Michigan State does a good job developing their players. They're not out-recruiting Miami.

 

[westcoastcanes]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

They rapin everybody.

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

So, to the guys knocking our talent ... How do Michigan State, Baylor, and TCU compete at the highest levels?

Their rosters are below ours ...

:11263323124_b207743

How did UNC have such a great year last year, also? Another team that is below us on this chart.

Miami isnt on Michigan States level for talent. Miami may have more overall speed but id take the defensive and offensive line personnel at MSU all day. They have phenomenal depth on the defensex especially line. I also think their backs are better. Madre London anyone? Florifa kid, and hes their 3rd back. LJ scott is a stud.

Madre London is a slug. Michigan State does a good job developing their players. They're not out-recruiting Miami.

I love how in all of that drivel, he forgets to mention that MSU has one of the best head coaches in all of CFB.

But yeah, it's totally the talent level.

 

[Miami_Football]

Some of you losers will be happy with Richt going 7-5 this season?? lol wtf

The Golden slurpers just have the worst mindset when it comes to Canes football.

 

[Miami_Football]

The same idiots that defended Golden when he went 6-7 will also defend Richt if he wins 7 games this year and they will once again blame the players. F that, Richt better win 10 games or else it's a failure. We have more talent than anyone we play not named FSU and ND and he better at least split with those teams or else that's a failure too.

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

Some of you losers will be happy with Richt going 7-5 this season?? lol wtf

The Golden slurpers just have the worst mindset when it comes to Canes football.

Yep. They still think Golden would have been successful had he just had some more talent, and that talent has been the issue at Miami for the last 15 years.