Betting line set at 8.5 wins

[Sabetta]

If you're going to make the bolded argument for loses you have to make the same argument for the wins.

Remember App State? We won because we hit a 43 yd field goal and had to rely on them dropping a pass on 3rd down to secure the win. If they catch the 3&6th pass they were within a few yards of field goal range with 1 minute left to play with 2 timeouts left. But we forget that because the receiver dropped it even though it hit him in the gut.

What about NC State? We won that game because Kam Kinchens knows how to tackle. He literally made the game winning open field tackle.

GT we were an overturned call from them marching down the field and potentially tying with a field goal.

Finally we had Pitt. An interception from big # 0 from a terribly thrown pass, a lucky non safety call, and another lucky bounce from the Mallory fumble is the only reason we won.

For as many "bro, we were 3 games from being a 10 win team with trash *** ***** Miaz." We were equally as close to a 3 win team as well.

And if you bothered to read through the rest of our conversation you’d see that I gave him that and settled on 8 wins. Also we had the lead for the entire Pitt game and the other games were back and forth the whole game. Which again proves my expectation. If we were that close to winning or just squeaking by under Manny, wouldn’t a top flight coaching staff be enough to put us over the top? Then add in a top 10 college QB in his second full season and that the coastal blows

 

[JamesQuall]

And if you bothered to read through the rest of our conversation you’d see that I gave him that and settled on 8 wins. Also we had the lead for the entire Pitt game and the other games were back and forth the whole game. Which again proves my expectation. If we were that close to winning or just squeaking by under Manny, wouldn’t a top flight coaching staff be enough to put us over the top? Then add in a top 10 college QB in his second full season and that the coastal blows

No need to get snippy brother. This is meant as a dialogue not an attack. I was pointing out that you can't have that argument without acknowledging the other.

I can also just as easily point you to what I said about coaching giving us 1-2 wins better than last year with poor coaching bur I'm not here to get under people's skin. I'm basically saying we agree with each other that 8.5 wins is a very realistic expectation for this season.

 

[dukemv]

I'll go 9-3 which sets the over.

Not winning at Texas A&M early.

Probably not winning at Clemson late. (Could possibly take them in ACC title game, neutral field rematch.)

One standard ****-the-bed game that both Miami and Mario are known for.

10-2 doable. 8-4 or worse would be a disaster.

With portal additions and players healthy for A&M... Don't see how it's not close and we potentially get that win.

 

[scrantoncane]

Miami’s post-game win expectancies in 2021 were as follows:

Bama 99%
App 76%
Mich St 91%
Miami (CC St) 100%
Miami (UVA) 67%
Miami (UNC) 65%
Miami (NC st) 96%
Miami (Pitt) 72%
Miami (GT) 93%
FSU 91%
Miami (VT) 62%
Miami (Duke) 100%

Turning those numbers into what our record should have been is above my pay grade, but 7-5 seems about right.

Crazy what this team did when TVD got the job.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I see 8 losses there.

Somehow if they hit on all cylinders, they lose seven instead of eight.

That’s the best case scenario I can think of for them.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Somehow if they hit on all cylinders, they lose seven instead of eight.

That’s the best case scenario I can think of for them.

Tough but fair.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

Vegas knows what they’re doing.

I predict 8-4.

According to my bankroll, they don't lol.

FSU is free. Take the under.

 

[NCCanefan]

I've only seen over/under season wins available for actual betting for the SEC. No ACC. Anybody see a betting site?

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

If we have the best QB, 2nd best “team talent” according to 247 and the best coaching staff in the ACC there is no doubt we should go over. Manny was a couple bad bounces and some brutal defensive calls away from being a 9/10 win team last year. 10 regular season win or bust for me

What book are you using? I don't see anything across a few of mine for FSU yet. A few notables:

UF: 7 flat (-115 juice both sides)
A&M: 9 flat (juiced on the under)
Texas: 9 flat (-150 on the over)
ND: 9 flat (-115 both ways)
Clemson: 10.5 (slight juice on the over)

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

What book are you using? I don't see anything across a few of mine for FSU yet. A few notables:

UF: 7 flat (-115 juice both sides)
A&M: 9 flat (juiced on the under)
Texas: 9 flat (-150 on the over)
ND: 9 flat (-115 both ways)
Clemson: 10.5 (slight juice on the over)

Texas and ATM at nine

TURDS at 7

 

[rsa coral gables]

Dequesne WIN
LSU LOSS
@louisville LOSS
BC WIN
Wake WIN
@N.C State LOSS
Clemson LOSS
GT WIN
@Miami BIG BIG BIG F@CKING LOSS
@Syracuse WIN
Louisiana WIN
Florida LOSS

THIS IS THEIR BEST CASE SCENARIO

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

Dequesne WIN
LSU LOSS
@louisville LOSS
BC WIN
Wake WIN
@N.C State LOSS
Clemson LOSS
GT WIN
@Miami BIG BIG BIG F@CKING LOSS
@Syracuse WIN
Louisiana WIN
Florida LOSS

THIS IS THEIR BEST CASE SCENARIO

That's how I see it too. LSU will bring their little off-season party crashing down in a rough way. They're splitting Lou/BC in my opinion; sneaky have lost 4/6 to the Cardinals, and BC is a stingy/well-coached bunch. If Jurkovic is connecting early, I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop both.

I'll give them one of Wake/NC St/Clemson, but that is a brutal stretch. Again, losing all three isn't out of the question - they all should be Nationally Ranked as well. Miami will be their little super bowl, and we're going to wipe the god**** floor with their corpse.

That Syracuse game smells so foul that if the beatdown is large enough/emotionally draining, they could EASILY drop that one on the road. Then you're looking at a disaster (for the Noles).

5-7 sounds about right, with the UF game determining their fate regarding bowl eligibility.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

Texas and ATM at nine

TURDS at 7

I think 9 is a good number for A&M; hardest division in all of college football (SEC West) and a tough non-con game against a hungry, talented (at spots) and energetic Miami team that should be in the Top 25 (probably top 20). App St could be a fun one for a few quarters, but doubt they seriously inflict much damage. Bama/LSU/Arkansas/Ole Miss is tough...crossover games with UF (meh) and a respectable SCAR team...10 wins seems like the ceiling given their lack of a formidable weapon at QB. 9-3 sounds just about right.

Texas...Sark better preform this year - or his seat is going to be scolding hot.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I think 9 is a good number for A&M; hardest division in all of college football (SEC West) and a tough non-con game against a hungry, talented (at spots) and energetic Miami team that should be in the Top 25 (probably top 20). App St could be a fun one for a few quarters, but doubt they seriously inflict much damage. Bama/LSU/Arkansas/Ole Miss is tough...crossover games with UF (meh) and a respectable SCAR team...10 wins seems like the ceiling given their lack of a formidable weapon at QB. 9-3 sounds just about right.

Texas...Sark better preform this year - or his seat is going to be scolding hot.

I see what you’re saying but nine is a risky number unless Dumbo finds a productive quarterback.

 

[WeBallinBoyz]

I see what you’re saying but nine is a risky number unless Dumbo finds a productive quarterback.

Oh absolutely. If it's anything remotely like last season...8-4 is extremely realistic.

 

[kryptonite]

I don’t but the J&J’s argument. We play in the coastal, not the SEC West. Manny was a fluke 4th and 23, a tipped pass and a missed 20 yard FG away from 10 wins last year and we all know what kind of coach he was. So that makes think our “joes” made Manny garbage coaching look a whole lot better than it was. Now add the Bryles award winner as the OC , Steel and a coaching staff that grew in talent and size.

And your prediction ignores that tipped passes and bad bounces happen to ALL teams, not just the poorly coached ones. So with our well-known Jimmies and Joes issues, there's no reason to think 8 wins is a disaster. Disappointing? Yes, but not a disaster. We've got enough holes that a bad break can absolutely sink us against the UVAs of the world.

 

[Empirical Cane]

 

[TheEye]

Here we go again.

 

[Cane47]

If you're going to make the bolded argument for loses you have to make the same argument for the wins.

Remember App State? We won because we hit a 43 yd field goal and had to rely on them dropping a pass on 3rd down to secure the win. If they catch the 3&6th pass they were within a few yards of field goal range with 1 minute left to play with 2 timeouts left. But we forget that because the receiver dropped it even though it hit him in the gut.

What about NC State? We won that game because Kam Kinchens knows how to tackle. He literally made the game winning open field tackle.

GT we were an overturned call from them marching down the field and potentially tying with a field goal.

Finally we had Pitt. An interception from big # 0 from a terribly thrown pass, a lucky non safety call, and another lucky bounce from the Mallory fumble is the only reason we won.

For as many "bro, we were 3 games from being a 10 win team with trash *** ***** Miaz." We were equally as close to a 3 win team as well.

Was going to similarly respond but you completely covered it.
Good post !

For my two cents I'm presently going with 8-4.
Maybe we win a bowl game too but if our opponent is Utah ---- all bets are off.

 

[ThomasM]

If you're going to make the bolded argument for loses you have to make the same argument for the wins.

Remember App State? We won because we hit a 43 yd field goal and had to rely on them dropping a pass on 3rd down to secure the win. If they catch the 3&6th pass they were within a few yards of field goal range with 1 minute left to play with 2 timeouts left. But we forget that because the receiver dropped it even though it hit him in the gut.

What about NC State? We won that game because Kam Kinchens knows how to tackle. He literally made the game winning open field tackle.

GT we were an overturned call from them marching down the field and potentially tying with a field goal.

Finally we had Pitt. An interception from big # 0 from a terribly thrown pass, a lucky non safety call, and another lucky bounce from the Mallory fumble is the only reason we won.

For as many "bro, we were 3 games from being a 10 win team with trash *** ***** Miaz." We were equally as close to a 3 win team as well.

While it COULD have been worse, we can all agree on that, the fact is we were **** close to being a 10 win team. Now, if we can be close to a 10 win team with Manny Diaz, why not with a coaching staff that should be 10 times better? Our team has holes, but so does every team we play. We also have one of the top QBs in the country. I like our odds at the over.