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- Aug 11, 2015
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Ill be back next week. Come by the crib.LMK next time you are heading to Vegas my friend.
Ill be back next week. Come by the crib.LMK next time you are heading to Vegas my friend.
I wonder during our glory years what was the rate of underclassmen leaving for the draft. If it was somewhat significant it certainly had very little impact on our success because the pipeline continue to step in and continue our dominance. If premise is accurate then post I am responding to has a lot of merit. But, naturally, post was down voted because “herd” does not want
to currently hear anything negative about lack of success of program.
Yes, that's the first measurable. By the time the 3rd round starts that value looks to be ~$3.5M, and it never drops below ~$2.5M. Maybe that chart is outdated, as your numbers are a bit higher. So maybe I was wrong in pegging the cutoff at ~50, maybe it's ~70.
Regardless, the gap between Kittle and Witherspoon was $1.2M. Rookie salaries in the NFL are ~$0.6M, so you have to subtract that out. The true gap is $0.6M, minus getting to that second contract faster. I know receiving a 2nd contract is not a guarantee, but that doesn't mean you should assign it a 0% probability. I don't want to start looking into stats on second contracts, nor making assumptions at personal discount rates, but you have to figure that with even a 20%-30% probability of receiving a second contract you've more than overcome that $0.6M gap
[And I would disagree that that's a conservative projection for RJ. I think that's a realistic projection had he come back next year, but not a conservative one]
[Also, you can't say "this is just a 2 round differential", because the differential is not linear. The gap between rounds 1 and 3 is a 2 round differential, as is the gap between rounds 3 and 5. But per the chart, the former 2 round differential looks to be ~$2M, but the latter 2 round differential is only a couple of hundred K]
Pretty sure they got better advice from multiple sources. Heeding it is the issue. The amount of poor advice from multiple other sources that our guys seemingly receive is the other issue. Plus, we live in a community that also seemingly values "getting yours" NOW over actually maximizing what you get.
Pinckney is nowhere near a 2nd-3rd round pick. That's the type of thinking that gets these kids to make bad decisions. He's an undersized, bad body LB who won't run a good 40. He will not be drafted if he leaves after next year.
Joe Jack, Richards, Shaq, and Homer are top 3 round picks. If they all want to leave, it's hard to argue. Guys like Pinckney are borderline draft prospects. I mean McIntosh just had a great season, and he still didn't go till Rd 5. Pinckney is a good college LB, but he doesn't project well to the NFL.
McCloud and Bethel shouldn't even have a decision to make. Then again, when trash like Malki Kawa gets around these guys, who knows. Kawa told Norton he'd be a 2nd Rd pick. He's just scum, even for an agent
Norton and McIntosh made huge mistakes going pro. That got me thinking: why do our players consistently make bad NFL decisions?
There are several reasons, but I think a big one is this: Miami has eight of the 200 highest paid players in the NFL. Nobody has more players in the Top 200. Only Georgia (with Richt) has more players in the Top 100. These are the names:
Olivier Vernon (3rd)
Greg Olsen (1st)
Brandon Linder (3rd)
Calais Campbell (2nd)
Jimmy Graham (3rd)
Allen Hurns (UFA)
Lamar Miller (4th)
Travis Benjamin (4th)
Our guys are getting paid on their second contracts. These guys hang around the program, and players notice. Their mindset is just getting into the league and letting their play carry them to a big deal.
But banking on your second contract is a huge mistake. You can get hurt, and Day 3 picks get a lot less leeway than Day 1 picks. Guys like Norton and Kaaya need to be cautionary tales to the Michael Pickneys of the world. Be like Chad Thomas and leave a legacy in Miami.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidc...rs-from-each-power-five-program/#6f80e38c1ef6
Odds of Getting In
Slim, unless you're the son of a player, the son of a coach, the brother of a player, or, in Eli Manning's case, all three.
The leap from high school football to college football crushes the dreams of many, many hometown football heroes. Only 3-4% of high school players get the opportunity to play college football, and those players are not necessarily the most talented or athletically gifted.
To be recruited by any college (not just one that Lee Corso occasionally visits on Saturday mornings), players need to catch the eye of the coach, and then prove to have the combination of athletic ability, mental toughness, and intelligence (both on the football field and in the classroom—the work ethic that one applies to schoolwork counts, too) to keep the coach's attention.
And even then, if the player's skills don't match up with exactly what the coach is looking for, he's probably going to be part of the 96% who only pick up footballs that say "NERF" on the side.
But college football is just one step on the path to professional football—you still have to play well enough for two to four years of college (and theoretically work on getting a college degree at the same time) to make enough of an impression on at least one NFL team to get drafted.
The ways players can make this impression are not restricted to the ten to thirteen games each college team plays every year. Each college can hold a Pro Day, where the eligible players from the college work out for NFL scouts and team representatives.
Selected players are also invited to attend the NFL Combine, where they're tested in events including the forty-yard dash (where the time it takes to run forty yards is recorded), the bench press (where the number of times a player can lift 225 pounds is recorded), and the shuttle run (where the player has to carry two suitcases while running to catch an airport shuttle before it leaves the parking lot).
The exact number of players who're eligible to be drafted every year isn't readily available, but with some basic math skills, we should be able to come up with a rough estimate. There are 115 colleges with NCAA Division I football programs, give or take half a dozen in any given year. These colleges can offer up to eighty-five scholarships per year, but every team has some non-scholarship players, so let's estimate that there are an average of 110 players on a Division I team.
A quick check of the rosters shows that each team has between ten and twenty seniors, so let's say that each team has an average of fifteen seniors. That makes for a total of 12,650 players, with 1,725 seniors. But that doesn't count Division II, which has roughly the same number of teams, so double those numbers to 25,300 players and 3,450 seniors.
So the first lesson that our foray into math offers is that not every college football player makes it to his senior year, and being offered a scholarship out of high school is no guarantee of eventually entering the NFL draft.
So, including the fifty or so underclassmen who leave college and declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft, that's a pool of 3,500 players who could be drafted. Now consider the number of players who were drafted by NFL teams in 2011: 254. In other words, only approximately 7% of eligible players get drafted.
Those players then have to compete with everyone else on the roster, plus any undrafted college free agents (that is, players who weren't drafted but are still offered the chance to try to make the roster), plus any other veterans or players from other leagues the team might want to check out, just to make it onto the Week 1 roster.
TL;DR, the odds of going from high school football to college football to the NFL aren't good. Here's a sign straight from the NFL to help contextualize.
I’m glad you can see through the BSHonestly we need to keep fvck boys like mehlki & drew away from the program. That would make a substantial difference. Mehlki in particular is the reason r.j. & kendrick didnt come back.
Pinckney is nowhere near a 2nd-3rd round pick. That's the type of thinking that gets these kids to make bad decisions. He's an undersized, bad body LB who won't run a good 40. He will not be drafted if he leaves after next year.
Joe Jack, Richards, Shaq, and Homer are top 3 round picks. If they all want to leave, it's hard to argue. Guys like Pinckney are borderline draft prospects. I mean McIntosh just had a great season, and he still didn't go till Rd 5. Pinckney is a good college LB, but he doesn't project well to the NFL.
McCloud and Bethel shouldn't even have a decision to make. Then again, when trash like Malki Kawa gets around these guys, who knows. Kawa told Norton he'd be a 2nd Rd pick. He's just scum, even for an agent
The salary isn't a huge difference but your odds of remaining on the roster throughout the season, thus actually collecting all those pay checks is significantly higher if you're drafted earlier. It's this type of short sightedness that hurts guys in the long run.Did you not see the chart someone posted earlier? There is virtually no difference in compensation after Round 2.
The ONLY reasons someone should stay an extra year is if they believe that:
1) They can play themselves into a top 50 selection
2) They won't make a roster in the current year, but would in the next year
Too difficult to speak in any type of generality when it comes to the decisions some of these EE's make.
Some feel the possibility of perhaps moving up a round or two doesn't offset their desire to leave now.
Some hate school and would rather play for something on a practice squad than do it for free again and have to go to class.
Some get bad advice from friends and family and choose to believe it.
Some are just dirt poor and desperatley need any money now.
Some see guys like Hurns and Linder who stay four years, still go late and make huge second contracts.
At the end of it all, they are each individuals who make choices based on a ton of different factors, some informed, some stupid, some emotional and some well thought out.
I’m glad you can see through the BS
To be honest, a college education is virtually worthless to the vast majority of kids who do not belong there while choosing (forced?) questionable majors and don't finish it anyway. It would be far more valuable to be teaching mechanical, electrical, plumbing, carpenter, or welding skills along with some basic English and writing classes. But I digress. If we were completely honest, how many of the college and basketball kids would be in college if not athletically gifted? Joaquin Gonzalez and Jonathan Vilma are the exceptions, not the rule.
We were cast as NFL U in 00-02. It's a double edge sword, UM still produces quality NFL players, but we need players who want to win championships and develop into the best they can be before departing. Tough task in today's world.
I'm genuinely rustled that Peter not only hosted that viper on the podcast, he went to work for First Round (lol) Management.
I wonder during our glory years what was the rate of underclassmen leaving for the draft. If it was somewhat significant it certainly had very little impact on our success because the pipeline continue to step in and continue our dominance. If premise is accurate then post I am responding to has a lot of merit. But, naturally, post was down voted because “herd” does not want
to currently hear anything negative about lack of success of program.