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One reason our players make bad NFL decisions

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Hemsleysalmons said:
I wonder during our glory years what was the rate of underclassmen leaving for the draft. If it was somewhat significant it certainly had very little impact on our success because the pipeline continue to step in and continue our dominance. If premise is accurate then post I am responding to has a lot of merit. But, naturally, post was down voted because “herd” does not want
to currently hear anything negative about lack of success of program.
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Clown post. The program is successful right now, so anything negative IS idiotic. No team suffers from retards leaving early for the NFL like we do. When has any program in HISTORY had TWO true Juniors leave early for the draft to become 5th and 7th round draft picks? Like how STUPID are our kids ffs.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Yes, that's the first measurable. By the time the 3rd round starts that value looks to be ~$3.5M, and it never drops below ~$2.5M. Maybe that chart is outdated, as your numbers are a bit higher. So maybe I was wrong in pegging the cutoff at ~50, maybe it's ~70.

Regardless, the gap between Kittle and Witherspoon was $1.2M. Rookie salaries in the NFL are ~$0.6M, so you have to subtract that out. The true gap is $0.6M, minus getting to that second contract faster. I know receiving a 2nd contract is not a guarantee, but that doesn't mean you should assign it a 0% probability. I don't want to start looking into stats on second contracts, nor making assumptions at personal discount rates, but you have to figure that with even a 20%-30% probability of receiving a second contract you've more than overcome that $0.6M gap

[And I would disagree that that's a conservative projection for RJ. I think that's a realistic projection had he come back next year, but not a conservative one]

[Also, you can't say "this is just a 2 round differential", because the differential is not linear. The gap between rounds 1 and 3 is a 2 round differential, as is the gap between rounds 3 and 5. But per the chart, the former 2 round differential looks to be ~$2M, but the latter 2 round differential is only a couple of hundred K]
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What utter bullshlt. You’re discounting $600,000 and saying it’s nothing
 
Tad Footeball said:
Pretty sure they got better advice from multiple sources. Heeding it is the issue. The amount of poor advice from multiple other sources that our guys seemingly receive is the other issue. Plus, we live in a community that also seemingly values "getting yours" NOW over actually maximizing what you get.
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A wise man doesn't need it
a fool doesn't heed it....
 
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Too difficult to speak in any type of generality when it comes to the decisions some of these EE's make.

Some feel the possibility of perhaps moving up a round or two doesn't offset their desire to leave now.

Some hate school and would rather play for something on a practice squad than do it for free again and have to go to class.

Some get bad advice from friends and family and choose to believe it.

Some are just dirt poor and desperatley need any money now.

Some see guys like Hurns and Linder who stay four years, still go late and make huge second contracts.

At the end of it all, they are each individuals who make choices based on a ton of different factors, some informed, some stupid, some emotional and some well thought out.
 
TheRichtShow said:
Pinckney is nowhere near a 2nd-3rd round pick. That's the type of thinking that gets these kids to make bad decisions. He's an undersized, bad body LB who won't run a good 40. He will not be drafted if he leaves after next year.

Joe Jack, Richards, Shaq, and Homer are top 3 round picks. If they all want to leave, it's hard to argue. Guys like Pinckney are borderline draft prospects. I mean McIntosh just had a great season, and he still didn't go till Rd 5. Pinckney is a good college LB, but he doesn't project well to the NFL.

McCloud and Bethel shouldn't even have a decision to make. Then again, when trash like Malki Kawa gets around these guys, who knows. Kawa told Norton he'd be a 2nd Rd pick. He's just scum, even for an agent
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This is the problem. Joe Jackson and Shaq are great on our team, but both are not thought of as great nationwide. 3rd round pick is good 1st round is where the money is. I guess I’m old I remember Michael Irvin , Russell Maryland, Bennie Blades, Jerome Brown trying to be the best in the nation at their position and going to NFL when they are sure thing to go in the 1st round. Players wanted to stay and teach the younger Canes what it meant to be a Hurricane.. Randy Shannon and Al Golden recruited based on telling the players come to Miami to get to the NFL. Not come to Miami and win Championships.Hopefully, player will want to stay and enjoy their time at Miami and enjoy getting that national exposure which comes from playing in Championship games and College playoffs and winning!
 
I am torn.

In some ways as a Canes fan I am bummed about the bad decisions made.

But as a Giants fan I am happy because we need all the help on Defense we can get and Mcintosh can be a good DE in our new 3-4 scheme.
 
DMoney said:
Norton and McIntosh made huge mistakes going pro. That got me thinking: why do our players consistently make bad NFL decisions?

There are several reasons, but I think a big one is this: Miami has eight of the 200 highest paid players in the NFL. Nobody has more players in the Top 200. Only Georgia (with Richt) has more players in the Top 100. These are the names:

Olivier Vernon (3rd)
Greg Olsen (1st)
Brandon Linder (3rd)
Calais Campbell (2nd)
Jimmy Graham (3rd)
Allen Hurns (UFA)
Lamar Miller (4th)
Travis Benjamin (4th)

Our guys are getting paid on their second contracts. These guys hang around the program, and players notice. Their mindset is just getting into the league and letting their play carry them to a big deal.

But banking on your second contract is a huge mistake. You can get hurt, and Day 3 picks get a lot less leeway than Day 1 picks. Guys like Norton and Kaaya need to be cautionary tales to the Michael Pickneys of the world. Be like Chad Thomas and leave a legacy in Miami.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidc...rs-from-each-power-five-program/#6f80e38c1ef6
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I truly believe society, lead by ESPN, does all these athletes a disservice by downplaying the value of a college degree. Talking about how they should get paid. We just had someone run to nominated by a major party and their main platform was free college education because of it increasing in price and so many people getting caught up in loans that take them a long time to pay off.

If someone is in a bad situation and they have talent people, society, neighborhoods should be talking about how that talent is going to help them get into school and get it paid for. That their college degree will help them to better their situation. Not tell everyone that they are going to the NFL because they are athletic.

Also stop calling high school recruits and college players "3 and out".

There is no problem in calling our team NFLU, QBU, RBU, etc. You can also point out how players stayed 4 years, got their degree, matured their body, improved their games and thus became ready to take and hold a spot in the NFL from players who already had it and all the new players each year who want to take it. Payton Manning stayed for his senior year even though he was probably going to be the top pick and he said it helped him and was the right decision. I don't care who our players are they are not Manning. So if thinking about leaving still step back and take that into perspective.

I tried to look up numbers for how many are draft eligible each year, versus how many NFL spots there are and I came accross this older article. Not sure how accurate it is but I think either it or newer numbers should be talked about with middle and high school kids who it looks like might be at least getting college offers. That way they start off young from the right perspective and to take advantage of the education which will change their lives versus the lottery dream of the NFL which is a pipe dream for the vast majority.

https://www.shmoop.com/careers/football-player/odds-of-getting-in.html

Odds of Getting In

Slim, unless you're the son of a player, the son of a coach, the brother of a player, or, in Eli Manning's case, all three.

The leap from high school football to college football crushes the dreams of many, many hometown football heroes. Only 3-4% of high school players get the opportunity to play college football, and those players are not necessarily the most talented or athletically gifted.

To be recruited by any college (not just one that Lee Corso occasionally visits on Saturday mornings), players need to catch the eye of the coach, and then prove to have the combination of athletic ability, mental toughness, and intelligence (both on the football field and in the classroom—the work ethic that one applies to schoolwork counts, too) to keep the coach's attention.

And even then, if the player's skills don't match up with exactly what the coach is looking for, he's probably going to be part of the 96% who only pick up footballs that say "NERF" on the side.

But college football is just one step on the path to professional football—you still have to play well enough for two to four years of college (and theoretically work on getting a college degree at the same time) to make enough of an impression on at least one NFL team to get drafted.

The ways players can make this impression are not restricted to the ten to thirteen games each college team plays every year. Each college can hold a Pro Day, where the eligible players from the college work out for NFL scouts and team representatives.

Selected players are also invited to attend the NFL Combine, where they're tested in events including the forty-yard dash (where the time it takes to run forty yards is recorded), the bench press (where the number of times a player can lift 225 pounds is recorded), and the shuttle run (where the player has to carry two suitcases while running to catch an airport shuttle before it leaves the parking lot).

The exact number of players who're eligible to be drafted every year isn't readily available, but with some basic math skills, we should be able to come up with a rough estimate. There are 115 colleges with NCAA Division I football programs, give or take half a dozen in any given year. These colleges can offer up to eighty-five scholarships per year, but every team has some non-scholarship players, so let's estimate that there are an average of 110 players on a Division I team.

A quick check of the rosters shows that each team has between ten and twenty seniors, so let's say that each team has an average of fifteen seniors. That makes for a total of 12,650 players, with 1,725 seniors. But that doesn't count Division II, which has roughly the same number of teams, so double those numbers to 25,300 players and 3,450 seniors.

So the first lesson that our foray into math offers is that not every college football player makes it to his senior year, and being offered a scholarship out of high school is no guarantee of eventually entering the NFL draft.

So, including the fifty or so underclassmen who leave college and declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft, that's a pool of 3,500 players who could be drafted. Now consider the number of players who were drafted by NFL teams in 2011: 254. In other words, only approximately 7% of eligible players get drafted.

Those players then have to compete with everyone else on the roster, plus any undrafted college free agents (that is, players who weren't drafted but are still offered the chance to try to make the roster), plus any other veterans or players from other leagues the team might want to check out, just to make it onto the Week 1 roster.

TL;DR, the odds of going from high school football to college football to the NFL aren't good. Here's a sign straight from the NFL to help contextualize.
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ff62bf3688ff0f1484f33229521941c7--nfl-odds-middle-school-counseling.jpg
 
To be honest, a college education is virtually worthless to the vast majority of kids who do not belong there while choosing (forced?) questionable majors and don't finish it anyway. It would be far more valuable to be teaching mechanical, electrical, plumbing, carpenter, or welding skills along with some basic English and writing classes. But I digress. If we were completely honest, how many of the college and basketball kids would be in college if not athletically gifted? Joaquin Gonzalez and Jonathan Vilma are the exceptions, not the rule.

We were cast as NFL U in 00-02. It's a double edge sword, UM still produces quality NFL players, but we need players who want to win championships and develop into the best they can be before departing. Tough task in today's world.
 
i haven't read all 8 pages of this, but surely someone has made the point I am going to make. Yeah RJ and Norton could have come back and greatly increased their value. They also could have come back and torn their ACL among a number of other injuries. So a third round pick signs a 3.1 mill contract. Now only approx 682,000 of that is guaranteed, however thats still 682,000 more than they are making in college. This is from an article in 2016. Here is the link. http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-contract-values-2016-4
Point is what is wrong with going to get 682,000 in guaranteed money? Nothing. Football is a brutal sport that can end on any play game or practice.
 
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TheRichtShow said:
Pinckney is nowhere near a 2nd-3rd round pick. That's the type of thinking that gets these kids to make bad decisions. He's an undersized, bad body LB who won't run a good 40. He will not be drafted if he leaves after next year.

Joe Jack, Richards, Shaq, and Homer are top 3 round picks. If they all want to leave, it's hard to argue. Guys like Pinckney are borderline draft prospects. I mean McIntosh just had a great season, and he still didn't go till Rd 5. Pinckney is a good college LB, but he doesn't project well to the NFL.

McCloud and Bethel shouldn't even have a decision to make. Then again, when trash like Malki Kawa gets around these guys, who knows. Kawa told Norton he'd be a 2nd Rd pick. He's just scum, even for an agent
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Bear in mind RJ had a hypothyroid condition that surfaced late, which many think dropped him down a bit. I agree on Pinck, but he could have a breakout, Berrios-esque type of year and shoot up somebody's board. He needs to dedicate himself more in the conditioning dept, imo.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Did you not see the chart someone posted earlier? There is virtually no difference in compensation after Round 2.

The ONLY reasons someone should stay an extra year is if they believe that:

1) They can play themselves into a top 50 selection
2) They won't make a roster in the current year, but would in the next year
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The salary isn't a huge difference but your odds of remaining on the roster throughout the season, thus actually collecting all those pay checks is significantly higher if you're drafted earlier. It's this type of short sightedness that hurts guys in the long run.
 
Go Canes!! said:
Too difficult to speak in any type of generality when it comes to the decisions some of these EE's make.

Some feel the possibility of perhaps moving up a round or two doesn't offset their desire to leave now.

Some hate school and would rather play for something on a practice squad than do it for free again and have to go to class.

Some get bad advice from friends and family and choose to believe it.

Some are just dirt poor and desperatley need any money now.

Some see guys like Hurns and Linder who stay four years, still go late and make huge second contracts.

At the end of it all, they are each individuals who make choices based on a ton of different factors, some informed, some stupid, some emotional and some well thought out.
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All of these are true.

However, despite all of those reasons, if you're going to declare early, you better kill the pre-draft process or at least give it your best effort. Testing like a jamoke from the park when you declare early tells every NFL team on planet earth that you ain't ready for this. You couldn't even do yourself the favor of working hard in the off-season to perform better at your own **** pro day. Not the combine...but the pro day. Shameful on their part, regardless of the circumstance for them leaving.
 
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JefeGringo said:
To be honest, a college education is virtually worthless to the vast majority of kids who do not belong there while choosing (forced?) questionable majors and don't finish it anyway. It would be far more valuable to be teaching mechanical, electrical, plumbing, carpenter, or welding skills along with some basic English and writing classes. But I digress. If we were completely honest, how many of the college and basketball kids would be in college if not athletically gifted? Joaquin Gonzalez and Jonathan Vilma are the exceptions, not the rule.

We were cast as NFL U in 00-02. It's a double edge sword, UM still produces quality NFL players, but we need players who want to win championships and develop into the best they can be before departing. Tough task in today's world.
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This is a myth.

It’s either incredibly misinformed or said intentionally for nefarious reasons. A college degree, in whatever major, gets your foot in the door for thousands of varied entry level jobs in sales, marketing, business, education, and other general business and educational occupations.

It is no guarantee of success, because you have to apply yourself and work your *** off after getting your foot in the door, but it at least practically guarantees you an interview. The rest is up to the candidate.

You are correct about one thing. As a rule, we don’t do a good enough job of letting kids know about the possibilities of learning well paying trades such as welding, plumbing and the like, but that does not negate the utility of a college degree in the business world.

Fools like you telling people not to get degrees are a real problem. You contribute to the dumbing down of generations of people.

I’m not blowing smoke here, I’ve spent a good part of my career hiring people, including NCAA athletes. That degree means something.

Just shut the fūck up with that nonsense.
 
Hemsleysalmons said:
I wonder during our glory years what was the rate of underclassmen leaving for the draft. If it was somewhat significant it certainly had very little impact on our success because the pipeline continue to step in and continue our dominance. If premise is accurate then post I am responding to has a lot of merit. But, naturally, post was down voted because “herd” does not want
to currently hear anything negative about lack of success of program.
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This is an important point, as it puts the ultimate blame on recruiting. In our glory years a Norton or RJ leaving early would have barely hit the radar of our fan base because we were loaded at DL (and everywhere else). Now we're not, so it's a big deal.
 
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