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Miami's NFL talent and getting to the next level

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The comparison is still off though. It’s my fault because I just gave the example of UM’s last five recruiting classes, totally ignoring the fact that most of those kids aren’t even draft eligible. ****, Miami’s highest rated class over the last 5 years has only had one kid enter the draft (Jordan). Still even Golden’s 2013-2014 classes were both top 15 classes but they just produced just two top 3 draft picks, Chad Thomas and David Njoku. The 2015 and 2016 classes finished 27th and 22nd respectively and had zero top 3 draft picks. Although Zach McCloud is still technically a possibility, albeit an extremely unlikely one.
 
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DMoney said:
In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.




This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.

But as @Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.

Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.

The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.

Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids but it’s early.

Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF, respectively. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.

Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.

The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.

So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.

For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.

In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.

It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.

This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.
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Greg is gonna be a great selling point.. when he finally starts and shows out everyone will take notice of his draft position.. I see a Bruce Smith Lawrence Taylor in him
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
It is not all about bags, but it’s a good starting point.

Perfect example is Georgia.

They are spending not just on bags, but on facilities, coaching, anything under the sun regarding athletics, and especially football, that you can think of.

But so far they are underperforming compared to Alabama. They are following the Alabama example, but not getting the Alabama results. They are getting 11 wins a year on average, but are not getting over the hump.

The coaching and high functioning organizational structure has to be there as well.
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I’d say the biggest difference between Alabama and Georgia has been Saban’s willingness to adjust what he does to adapt to the modern game. If Alabama was still using the outdated offense that Georgia still uses, they’d be in a similar predicament. Good enough to out talent almost everyone but when the talent gap shrinks in the playoffs, you get out scored by a team with a better offense/quarterback. Saban learned that lesson. Kirby made a change in coordinators so let’s see if he has too.
 
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with Miami's admin's indifference with sports, you have to stack elite talent, its Miami against the world including the people in their 4 walls, always been, 26 draftees, 80% being day 2 and 3 guys aint gonna cut it
 
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DTP said:
"... I’m curious to see which school has the most UFAs that actually end up making a team. We’ve got to be near the top..."
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An first glance at the data doesnt indicate that actually (Bama's does).

Although, it could be that Miami's UDFA actually stick on rosters longer than the draftees...

it gets deep quick...
 
RVACane said:
Is the in Ft Myers? I think you left Orlando for the West Coast. I’m going to head to Florida and just east what and where you eat. Lol
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I was joking....I live just outside Ft Myers now....halfway between Ft Myers & Bonita Springs....I come back to Central Fl often...and Stasio's is a must everytime...
 
DMoney said:
What's Clemson without their first round QBs and DL?
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What’s clemson wothout their overall talent amd depth, including the non-nfl kids?

Too much focus is put on a few kids a year being nfl prospects. It’s at best a piece of the picture. But it’s trotted around like a prop in these discussions, as of it explains so much more than it does. It’s seen as a sign of overall roster talent. That’s false. It’s seen as a referendum on coaching. False again.

None of this should be surprising. Fan boards misuse data amd ask the wrong questions all the time.
 
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caneinorlando said:
I was joking....I live just outside Ft Myers now....halfway between Ft Myers & Bonita Springs....I come back to Central Fl often...and Stasio's is a must everytime...
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I literally searched lol

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Ethnicsands said:
What’s clemson wothout their overall talent amd depth, including the non-nfl kids?
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If you take away the elite QB and DL talents, Clemson is Virginia Tech during the Beamer years. Well-coached, tough, ultimately a non-factor.

First and foremost, Clemson is a dynasty because they because they have elite players at the two most important positions.
 
DMoney said:
If you take away the elite QB and DL talents, Clemson is Virginia Tech during the Beamer years. Well-coached, tough, ultimately a non-factor.

First and foremost, Clemson is a dynasty because they because they have elite players at the two most important positions.
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I in no way consider Clemson a Dynasty....
 
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DMoney said:
If you take away the elite QB and DL talents, Clemson is Virginia Tech during the Beamer years. Well-coached, tough, ultimately a non-factor.

First and foremost, Clemson is a dynasty because they because they have elite players at the two most important positions.
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They focused on WRs too. Going back to Sammy Watkins.
 
Miami04 said:
Coaching is the only reason we are not winning the coastal. Every year we have the best class in our division but we never capitalize on the talent.
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Veteran football teams usually win division/conferences.
 
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