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Miami's NFL talent and getting to the next level

DMoney

D-Moni
Administrator
Joined
Oct 13, 2011
Messages
15,831
In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.



This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.

But as @Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.

Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.

The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.

Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids but it’s early.

Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF, respectively. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.

Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.

The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.

So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.

For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.

In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.

It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.

This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.
 

bshaw28

Junior
Joined
Nov 6, 2011
Messages
2,689
Day 3 guys are great and we should be proud of them. But it's Day 1 & 2 guys that move the needle.

Think of it this way - if an NFL team had 3 4th round picks, they couldn't trade all 3 for 1 1st Round pick.

They couldn't even trade all 3 for 1 2nd Round pick. The value of those top players is just so much more.

IMO - we need to consistently land 2-3 Top 50 type players each year.

#10 - Leonard Taylor
#14 - James Williams
#45 - Avantae Williams
#47 - Jake Garcia

Those are the guys that are going to move the needle. Get 2-3 consistently each year, that's 8-12 over 4 years. If 50% don't work out (which is going to happen) - that's fine. That means we've got 4-6 on the roster that did work out. We need 2-3 on Offense, 2-3 on Defense at all times to make a leap (because we're also going to have some 3/4 star FL sleepers that play at that level to)

And you don't need wins to make it happen - Manny & Staff just need to be good salesman. Taylor & Williams bought in following 7 & 6 wins seasons.
 

robbymoto

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Oct 17, 2012
Messages
454
In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.



This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.

But as @Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.

Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.

The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.

Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids, although it's early.

Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.

Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.

The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.

So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.

For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.

In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.

It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.

This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.
This is all correct. However, knowing the problem and actually fixing the problem are two very different things.
 

DTP

Section 102
Joined
Dec 30, 2015
Messages
9,541
I think program prestige often plays a role in draft selections. Teams are far more likely to reach for an Alabama or Ohio State player because of their reputation. A player’s team’s performance may have nothing to do with his individual talent but NFL GMs still prefer guys from winning programs over comparable talents from lesser teams. Miami hasn’t been good. Teams are less likely to reach for our guys. We used to get the benefit of the doubt. NFL teams would reach for guys who were fringe prospects because they played at Miami but when we stopped winning consistently, the reaches all but stopped
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
7,262
Need to hit the Bat signal for @Ethnicsands

Should be good for 10...30...40 pages of back and forth.

FIGHT.FOR.EV.ER clap clap clap clap clap

tumblr_o43y3l2Dot1uvyu9yo3_540.gifv
 

BoxingRobes

Junior
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
7,262
I think program prestige often plays a role in draft selections. Teams are far more likely to reach for an Alabama or Ohio State player because of their reputation. A player’s team’s performance may have nothing to do with his individual talent but NFL GMs still prefer guys from winning programs over comparable talents from lesser teams. Miami hasn’t been good. Teams are less likely to reach for our guys. We used to get the benefit of the doubt. NFL teams would reach for guys who were fringe prospects because they played at Miami but when we stopped winning consistently, the reaches all but stopped
I'd contend that we still get the benefit of the doubt...its why we have so many Day 3 picks. Might not be a team in the country whose players get the benefit of the doubt more and get a lotto ticket draft pick late. Unfortunately, those lotto tickets are increasingly filled with $2 scratchoffs that maybe get you another $2?
 

OriginalCanesCanesCanes

All-ACC (#1 most reproted porster on CIS)
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Messages
25,013
I will repeat what I said in the other thread:

How about comparing our draft performance vs other teams with similar recruiting rankings during the years in question.

That would give a clearer picture.

Obviously teams that draft four and five stars in the three deep every year and are ranked (recruiting) in the top 1-7, year-to-year, are going to have more NFL draft picks.

If we want an accurate estimation of how we’re doing, we need to compare ourselves to other teams with similar signing day rankings, say 5 to 7 teams in the same ranking range over the discussed time period.

The comparison may not be to our favor, I don’t know. But comparing top draft choices for Miami to teams like Alabama, Ohio State, et al, it’s just not an accurate comparison, when they are signing top three classes every year.
 

Gooner#44

Recruit
Banned
Joined
Dec 11, 2012
Messages
4,007
I will repeat what I said in the other thread:



If we want an accurate estimation of how we’re doing, we need to compare ourselves to other teams with similar signing day rankings, say 5 to 7 teams in the same ranking range over the discussed time period.

The comparison may not be to our favor, I don’t know. But comparing top draft choices for Miami to teams like Alabama, Ohio State, et al, it’s just not an accurate comparison, when they are signing top three classes every year.
I wonder how we fared vs LaTech recruiting wise when they shut us out in the WhoGivesAFuck Bowl?
 

PlanoCane

Freshman
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Messages
728
Wow people are so blind and narrow-minded about the Canes it's funny. South Florida this and that. The whole time IMG is bedded in TX but Florida claims the product. Lol
 

dwreck27

Senior
Joined
Jan 16, 2012
Messages
9,337
Coaches need to put these players in positions to succeed and stop letting talent rot....

Fine we haven’t gotten the Pat Surtains the past decade....

But we have gotten more than enough talent to stack 10 win seasons.... let’s not forget we are still in the coastal where a GT triple option team has won the Division more than us
 

Gooner#44

Recruit
Banned
Joined
Dec 11, 2012
Messages
4,007
Coaches need to put these players in positions to succeed and stop letting talent rot....

Fine we haven’t gotten the Pat Surtains the past decade....

But we have gotten more than enough talent to stack 10 win seasons.... let’s not forget we are still in the coastal where a GT triple option team has won the Division more than us
A bunch more. We are currently tied with THE DUKE FOOTBALL team for number of Coastal Titles. Both have ONE (1).
 

DMoney

D-Moni
Administrator
Joined
Oct 13, 2011
Messages
15,831
Coaches need to put these players in positions to succeed and stop letting talent rot....

Fine we haven’t gotten the Pat Surtains the past decade....

But we have gotten more than enough talent to stack 10 win seasons.... let’s not forget we are still in the coastal where a GT triple option team has won the Division more than us
This part is non-negotiable. We need to play to our current talent first.

Last year was a step in the right direction as far as beating mediocre ACC teams consistently.
 
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