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Miami's NFL talent and getting to the next level

OriginalCanesCanesCanes

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It’s a lot of work. People think five stars are about bags. If only it was that easy. Beat the living **** out of Alabama. 🙌 We are almost home.

It is not all about bags, but it’s a good starting point.

Perfect example is Georgia.

They are spending not just on bags, but on facilities, coaching, anything under the sun regarding athletics, and especially football, that you can think of.

But so far they are underperforming compared to Alabama. They are following the Alabama example, but not getting the Alabama results. They are getting 11 wins a year on average, but are not getting over the hump.

The coaching and high functioning organizational structure has to be there as well.
 

Boarcane

🙌
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Jul 10, 2012
Messages
5,850
It is not all about bags, but it’s a good starting point.

Perfect example is Georgia.

They are spending not just on bags, but on facilities, coaching, anything under the sun regarding athletics, and especially football, that you can think of.

But so far they are underperforming compared to Alabama. They are following the Alabama example, but not getting the Alabama results. They are getting 11 wins a year on average, but are not getting over the hump.

The coaching and high functioning organizational structure has to be there as well.
Kids want to play at home. They also want to get to the next level and win. It’s truly that simple. Yes, everyone needs to eat. Again, beat Alabama 🙌 We are in the conversation for every recruit we want. Fact
 

OriginalCanesCanesCanes

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Kids want to play at home. They also want to get to the next level and win. It’s truly that simple. Yes, everyone needs to eat. Again, beat Alabama 🙌 We are in the conversation for every recruit we want. Fact

We can’t pin all our hopes of beating Alabama. I mean yes I’ll be there in case we do the unthinkable, but right now all we have is a puncher’s chance. And I’ll be honest, I’m not sure if King is even going to be ready game one. People are taking that for granted, but it’s not a given.

But also, don’t underestimate the power of a $200,000 under the table payment to the family.
 

Tit-e-skr

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Aug 22, 2017
Messages
1,737
Every couple years this topic raises its ugly head, and then those couple years pass again, without any ACC title game wins, or appearances.

But yeah, let’s continue to believe we “are this close”. If you aren’t consistently winning the crappy Coastal, your program probably isn’t all that healthy.
 

pacusmc

Freshman
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Aug 27, 2016
Messages
8,326
Focusing on draft picks is not the answer.
The fact that Clemson has had less draft picks and has an automatic seat at the playoffs should let everyone know that.

We’ve been poor at producing quality depth and retaining talent that should not be declaring early.

If I’m not mistaken I believe we’ve had over 25 players either transfer out, career ending injury, or declare early since 2017!!

That’s an entire recruiting class! If you add on top of that the piss poor recruiting class that was somewhat salvaged with the transfer portal after the goose egg against la tech (a short term solution) then we’re actually fortunate to be where we’re at.
Clemson hasn’t had to recruit a full 25 because they actually retain their players and even had that one class where 3 first rounders stayed for their senior year which prompted cmr to say “they must really love that slide”.
Etienne would’ve been drafted exactly where he as last year and so would’ve sunshine but if those 2 players don’t come back their season would’ve been a lot different.

Having a deep roster wether they’re nfl talent or not is way better than having barely any players to field a scout team.

What good is having Jp for one year and Rousseau for 8 games only to have to go looking for transfers.

Evaluation, depth, and retention will go a very long way in terms of wins and losses imo. What good is having first round picks that play on a squad that doesn’t have enough players and where the talent drop off around them is drastic.
 
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Mel Bernstein

Sophomore
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Jan 29, 2019
Messages
914
Open the checkbook and we'll be back in the game. That is how you win in college football these days. You'll never convince me that teams can win a championship otherwise.
 

DMoney

D-Moni
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there's way too much focus on the top few kids on a roster as the leading indicator of success compared to appreciating how the bottom of the roster (and experience, and position group distribution) represent the leading indicators for FAILURE.
Signing impact guys is much, much more important than avoiding washouts. Look at Butch's classes. Half of those guys never even hit the field, usually because of grades. We remember those classes fondly because of the studs.

I haven't seen a detailed study on attrition rates, but everything I've seen has us in a normal range. The link below is an example with a limited sample of Top 247 prospects. What kills us is the premature NFL entries and that’s not really a recruiting problem.

 

BoxingRobes

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Aug 24, 2013
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I can not imagine another P5 school that would have a higher attrition rate than we do.

We seemingly hemorrhage talent in every way possible from de-commitments, to players that never get to campus, to players that transfer out in Year 1, Year 2, injury, early declarations to the NFL, etc. We seemingly have every base covered for players not finishing here. If there is a team that competes with Miami on this front, I'd love to see the data.
 

Ethnicsands

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Signing impact guys is much, much more important than avoiding washouts. Look at Butch's classes. Half of those guys never even hit the field, usually because of grades. We remember those classes fondly because of the studs.

I haven't seen a detailed study on attrition rates, but everything I've seen has us in a normal range. The link below is an example with a limited sample of Top 247 prospects. What kills us is the premature NFL entries and that’s not really a recruiting problem.

We cam revisit this. I think you’re wrong. Butch is a bad example because he recruited hall of famers. The math is simple.
 

Rellyrell

All American
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Dec 19, 2013
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Miami’s last 5 recruiting classes as ranked by 247 are : 11th, 16th, 27th, 8th, 12th. Which averages just under 15th overall. So I guess you’d probably want to compare with teams in the 12-18 range to get a reasonable number.

I always laugh when people try to compare what we do in recruiting to teams like Alabama and Ohio State. It’s a completely different stratosphere. Honestly Alabama should be putting 6 guys in the first round EVERY year if you go by recruiting rankings.

This thread wasn’t a “comparison” per say, vs. highlighting why these schools continue to attract top talent. Winning has a lot do w/ it, but getting guys paid at the next level is equally as important.

Once upon a time, we were that team, which is why we consistently ranked in the top 5 in recruiting. We were a gateway to winning championships & NFL payday. But we can see the trend reverse as time went on, which is something we need to buck.


However, since @OriginalCanesCanesCanes brought it up, let’s take a look at teams that’s recruited on par, & in some cases, less than par, as us.

Here’s what these teams have produced in regards to top 3 round draft picks. These rankings were complete composite ranking from 2017-2020, which included portal player re-rankings, and the class of 2021 as is.

Let’s see the first three round picks among these teams:

11. UF (16)
12. ND (13)
T-12. Michigan (17)
14. PSU (10)
15. Miami (4)
T-15. USC (10)
17. UTK (6)
T-17. FSU (7)

So even among our recruiting contemporaries, we’ve produced the least amount of top tier NFL talent.

Records over the last 5 years?

UF: 42 - 20 (.645 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 3 bowl wins, & 2 NY6 bowl wins)

ND: 47 - 16 (.746 win %, w/ 2 CFP appearance)

Michigan: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 1 division title, 0 bowl wins , 2 NY6 bowl appearances)

PSU: 46 - 16 (.742 win%, w/ 1 conference title, 2 bowl wins, 3 NY6 appearances)

Miami: 40 - 23 (.634 win%, w/ 1 division title, 1 bowl victory, 1 NY6 bowl appearance)

USC: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 1 conference title, 1 bowl win, 2 NY6 appearances)

Tennessee: 31 - 31 (.500 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories)

FSU: 31 - 29 (.516 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories, and 1 NY6 bowl appearance)
 

Go Canes!!

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Feb 27, 2018
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12,249
This thread wasn’t a “comparison” per say, vs. highlighting why these schools continue to attract top talent. Winning has a lot do w/ it, but getting guys paid at the next level is equally as important.

Once upon a time, we were that team, which is why we consistently ranked in the top 5 in recruiting. We were a gateway to winning championships & NFL payday. But we can see the trend reverse as time went on, which is something we need to buck.


However, since @OriginalCanesCanesCanes brought it up, let’s take a look at teams that’s recruited on par, & in some cases, less than par, as us.

Here’s what these teams have produced in regards to top 3 round draft picks. These rankings were complete composite ranking from 2017-2020, which included portal player re-rankings, and the class of 2021 as is.

Let’s see the first three round picks among these teams:

11. UF (16)
12. ND (13)
T-12. Michigan (17)
14. PSU (10)
15. Miami (4)
T-15. USC (10)
17. UTK (6)
T-17. FSU (7)

So even among our recruiting contemporaries, we’ve produced the least amount of top tier NFL talent.

Records over the last 5 years?

UF: 42 - 20 (.645 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 3 bowl wins, & 2 NY6 bowl wins)

ND: 47 - 16 (.746 win %, w/ 2 CFP appearance)

Michigan: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 1 division title, 0 bowl wins , 2 NY6 bowl appearances)

PSU: 46 - 16 (.742 win%, w/ 1 conference title, 2 bowl wins, 3 NY6 appearances)

Miami: 40 - 23 (.634 win%, w/ 1 division title, 1 bowl victory, 1 NY6 bowl appearance)

USC: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 1 conference title, 1 bowl win, 2 NY6 appearances)

Tennessee: 31 - 31 (.500 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories)

FSU: 31 - 29 (.516 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories, and 1 NY6 bowl appearance)

So you either consistently recruit at a Top 10 level or you’re a varying degree of irrelevant. A great QB may skew it but only for a while and to a certain extent.
 
Last edited:

OriginalCanesCanesCanes

All-ACC (#1 most reproted porster on CIS)
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This thread wasn’t a “comparison” per say, vs. highlighting why these schools continue to attract top talent. Winning has a lot do w/ it, but getting guys paid at the next level is equally as important.

Once upon a time, we were that team, which is why we consistently ranked in the top 5 in recruiting. We were a gateway to winning championships & NFL payday. But we can see the trend reverse as time went on, which is something we need to buck.


However, since @OriginalCanesCanesCanes brought it up, let’s take a look at teams that’s recruited on par, & in some cases, less than par, as us.

Here’s what these teams have produced in regards to top 3 round draft picks. These rankings were complete composite ranking from 2017-2020, which included portal player re-rankings, and the class of 2021 as is.

Let’s see the first three round picks among these teams:

11. UF (16)
12. ND (13)
T-12. Michigan (17)
14. PSU (10)
15. Miami (4)
T-15. USC (10)
17. UTK (6)
T-17. FSU (7)

So even among our recruiting contemporaries, we’ve produced the least amount of top tier NFL talent.

Records over the last 5 years?

UF: 42 - 20 (.645 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 3 bowl wins, & 2 NY6 bowl wins)

ND: 47 - 16 (.746 win %, w/ 2 CFP appearance)

Michigan: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 1 division title, 0 bowl wins , 2 NY6 bowl appearances)

PSU: 46 - 16 (.742 win%, w/ 1 conference title, 2 bowl wins, 3 NY6 appearances)

Miami: 40 - 23 (.634 win%, w/ 1 division title, 1 bowl victory, 1 NY6 bowl appearance)

USC: 39 - 19 (.672 win%, w/ 2 division titles, 1 conference title, 1 bowl win, 2 NY6 appearances)

Tennessee: 31 - 31 (.500 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories)

FSU: 31 - 29 (.516 win%, w/ 2 bowl victories, and 1 NY6 bowl appearance)

This is good but I would have liked to have seen top 5-6 rounds.

But you’re not convincing anyone we’re underperforming, because that’s a given.

I can also look at this and say based on the first 3 rounds, some of these schools are really underperforming their talent, like insanely underperforming.
 

Rellyrell

All American
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Dec 19, 2013
Messages
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So you either consistently recruit at a Top 10 level or you’re a varying degree of irrelevant. A great QB may skew it but only for a while and to a certain extent.

Correct. And quite frankly, I don’t want to be in the same category as those fck programs (excuse my language). That’s my first problem. All those teams we’re grouped w/ lately don’t have our pedigree, w/ the exception of SC.

We gotta do a better job in identifying, and producing. Also have to do a better job of securing home, meaning A players, not B players. We did a good job in doing that w/ Williams, Williams, and Taylor the last 2 cycles. We MUST continue this trend. This season is so important, bro. The honeymoon period is over w/, so now Manny is not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
 

Rellyrell

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Dec 19, 2013
Messages
19,134
This is good but I would have liked to have seen top 5-6 rounds.

But you’re not convincing anyone we’re underperforming, because that’s a given.

I can also look at this and say based on the first 3 rounds, some of these schools are really underperforming their talent, like insanely underperforming.

I agree, that’s the first thing that stood out to me.
 

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
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Messages
10,738
In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.



This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.

But as @Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.

Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.

The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.

Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids but it’s early.

Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF, respectively. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.

Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.

The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.

So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.

For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.

In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.

It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.

This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.
Also consider (granted good as of start of last season):


👆Mostly correlates to draft picks list vs who "stays" in NFL. Biggest jump up? Pedo State. It would appear based on draft picks (lower) their players tend to retain on NFL rosters at a slightly higher rate than other schools. Although Bamas UDFA seem to add to Tide's total as well.
 
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