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Miami's NFL talent and getting to the next level

DTP

Section 102
Joined
Dec 30, 2015
Messages
8,937
I'd contend that we still get the benefit of the doubt...its why we have so many Day 3 picks. Might not be a team in the country whose players get the benefit of the doubt more and get a lotto ticket draft pick late. Unfortunately, those lotto tickets are increasingly filled with $2 scratchoffs that maybe get you another $2?
I honestly believe it’s the other way around. Our day three guys aren’t reaches and often have good NFL careers. I’m curious to see which school has the most UFAs that actually end up making a team. We’ve got to be near the top.
 

Rellyrell

All American
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
19,090
I will repeat what I said in the other thread:



If we want an accurate estimation of how we’re doing, we need to compare ourselves to other teams with similar signing day rankings, say 5 to 7 teams in the same ranking range over the discussed time period.

The comparison may not be to our favor, I don’t know. But comparing top draft choices for Miami to teams like Alabama, Ohio State, et al, it’s just not an accurate comparison, when they are signing top three classes every year.

Give me a range big dog. Like, we finished 11th this yr, so were u thinking teams that ranked 10th - 15th?
 

Ziggy

Junior
Joined
Jan 28, 2012
Messages
3,690
So the talent is there and has been on the roster but the wins are not there. Coaching...? We stick out like a sore thumb on that list along with Michigan. Too much NFL talent to not win 10+ games every year and compete with Clemson.
 

Number1CanesFan

Sophomore
Joined
Jul 30, 2016
Messages
5,870
Day 3 guys are great and we should be proud of them. But it's Day 1 & 2 guys that move the needle.

Think of it this way - if an NFL team had 3 4th round picks, they couldn't trade all 3 for 1 1st Round pick.

They couldn't even trade all 3 for 1 2nd Round pick. The value of those top players is just so much more.

IMO - we need to consistently land 2-3 Top 50 type players each year.

#10 - Leonard Taylor
#14 - James Williams
#45 - Avantae Williams
#47 - Jake Garcia

Those are the guys that are going to move the needle. Get 2-3 consistently each year, that's 8-12 over 4 years. If 50% don't work out (which is going to happen) - that's fine. That means we've got 4-6 on the roster that did work out. We need 2-3 on Offense, 2-3 on Defense at all times to make a leap (because we're also going to have some 3/4 star FL sleepers that play at that level to)

And you don't need wins to make it happen - Manny & Staff just need to be good salesman. Taylor & Williams bought in following 7 & 6 wins seasons.
I like what your saying and agree with most of it, but you have to back up recruiting with wins. You can argue the chicken or the egg, but at the end of the day winning seals the deal in recruiting top players. Just look how much hype we got after beating ND in 2017. We were ranked as high as #2 by the CFP committee and then we went on a 3 game skid followed by disappointing 2018 and 2019 seasons. If, we could have just beat Pitt and made the CF Playoffs, there would have a lot of momentum in recruiting. It would have required a much better 2018 season such as another Coastal title, but it would have helped in trying to land some of the big fish we missed out on.

IMO, winning makes the sales pitch a lot easier. Every kid wants to win. The top prospects have the greatest opportunities to choose the school they want to play for and a big factor is playing for a team that can win and develop them in the process. That's what it's all about. These players aren't going to Alabama because they love the state. They're going there because they know they'll have a chance to compete for a Natty and will be developed along the way.

Fortunately, I think the staff changes Manny had made not only help in recruiting, but I believe will provide better player development. Now, we just need to validate the recruiting and development with wins.
 
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DTP

Section 102
Joined
Dec 30, 2015
Messages
8,937
Miami’s last 5 recruiting classes as ranked by 247 are : 11th, 16th, 27th, 8th, 12th. Which averages just under 15th overall. So I guess you’d probably want to compare with teams in the 12-18 range to get a reasonable number.

I always laugh when people try to compare what we do in recruiting to teams like Alabama and Ohio State. It’s a completely different stratosphere. Honestly Alabama should be putting 6 guys in the first round EVERY year if you go by recruiting rankings.
 

cookies

Freshman
Joined
Feb 21, 2021
Messages
219
I honestly believe it’s the other way around. Our day three guys aren’t reaches and often have good NFL careers.
Even the ones who don’t have sturdy careers are still not reaches like you said. That’s why so many make the team and stick ala Berrios. I believe McIntosh, Jackson, and Garvin all go higher if they return and they all have longer careers as a result of that decision.
 

Go Canes!!

15-0
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Messages
12,194
So the talent is there and has been on the roster but the wins are not there. Coaching...? We stick out like a sore thumb on that list along with Michigan. Too much NFL talent to not win 10+ games every year and compete with Clemson.

All of those schools have consistently had far better recruiting classes than ours. Our sore thumb doesn’t belong on the same hand.
 

OriginalCanesCanesCanes

All-ACC (#1 most reproted porster on CIS)
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Give me a range big dog. Like, we finished 11th this yr, so were u thinking teams that ranked 10th - 15th?

Miami’s last 5 recruiting classes as ranked by 247 are : 11th, 16th, 27th, 8th, 12th. Which averages just under 15th overall. So I guess you’d probably want to compare with teams in the 12-18 range to get a reasonable number.

I always laugh when people try to compare what we do in recruiting to teams like Alabama and Ohio State. It’s a completely different stratosphere. Honestly Alabama should be putting 6 guys in the first round EVERY year if you go by recruiting rankings.

Here you go.
 

Ethnicsands

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Nov 2, 2011
Messages
22,150
Need to hit the Bat signal for @Ethnicsands

Should be good for 10...30...40 pages of back and forth.

FIGHT.FOR.EV.ER clap clap clap clap clap

tumblr_o43y3l2Dot1uvyu9yo3_540.gifv
Two quick comments:

- glad to see we're all agreeing on evaluations!

- people still don't understand the old adage 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' - there's way too much focus on the top few kids on a roster as the leading indicator of success compared to appreciating how the bottom of the roster (and experience, and position group distribution) represent the leading indicators for FAILURE. (top kids are 'strong links' ... holes in the roster and key units are 'weak links'. These are not mutually inconsistent concepts (top kids may explain how you go from very good to great, but big gaping holes explain why you underperform despite having some top kids). That's the key point. We've failed for different reasons than many like to discuss. Yes, we need more first rounders, and all that. But a big part of evaluations is avoiding wasted spots and non-contributors. They destroy you. You're always going to have redshirts, and injuries, and other issues. Compounding that with useless takes crushes a roster more than most appreciate.

@LuCane
 

nvlahos

Junior
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Feb 14, 2012
Messages
3,534
We just had 2 DEs drafted in the 1st Rd

And O what a coincidence; there’s 4-5 SoFla DEs in the 2022 class that have future rd 1-3 potential (Jones Jr, Kelly, Stewart, Jackson, Anderson)

If Manny can’t win this year and sell the development of that position to land who he wants at DE from SoFla then he may never be the guy to get things right
 

TheEye

Cane Grad!
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
5,658
Miami has had a reputation of doing less with more for roughly 15 years now. Recruits see programs with insane support staff and facilities, let alone high profile coaches with good resumes.

As for the lower ranked diamonds in the rough, they typically get offered after they commit to Miami.
 

TimeBum

"What is this? A center for ants?"
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Nov 29, 2015
Messages
9,194
In the past five years, Miami is 7th overall in total draft picks.



This, in a vacuum, is the sign of a healthy program. In the past ten years, Miami has produced more Day 3 picks (36) than anyone in the country by a wide margin. The five teams behind Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson. This, too, is normally the sign of a healthy program. The fact that Miami consistently ranks among the top schools in active NFL players suggests that these guys make rosters, which is another good sign.

But as @Rellyrell and others have pointed out, there's something missing: Top 3 round picks. Miami has only produced four such picks in that time span, which pales in comparison to schools like Bama (36), Ohio State (29) and Clemson (16). This disparity is easy to see when we watch CFB Playoff games.

Some of our Day 3 picks probably should have been Day 2 picks. Our schemes on offense and defense did not highlight their strengths, and many of them left a year too early. But that alone does not explain the lack of high-end, difference-making NFL talent.

The most common explanation is the correct one—we haven’t done a good enough job recruiting locally. National recruiting is critical, especially in a class like 2022 when South Florida is down. But it’s much harder to recruit great players nationally when you aren’t a top program in the country. For young kids, Miami's national reputation is a documentary. Local recruiting, while challenging, is the more realistic problem to solve first.

Our local struggles fall into two categories: evaluation and acquisition. Local evaluation was horrible under Shannon and Golden, and the message boards were often more accurate than our coaches. Richt was better, although Dugans’ preference for big receivers cost us some studs (Moore, Atwell, Flowers) and almost made us miss out on Harley. Diaz seems to be better at offering the right kids but it’s early.

Consider this: Rousseau is the first local, defensive 3* that Miami has put in the first round since Sean Taylor. Five local defensive sleepers went in the first round during that same period. They signed with Ohio State, Georgia, FSU and USF, respectively. It gets worse when you expand it to include offense. From 2006-2020, seven (7) South Florida three stars went in the first round. Only 1 (Dorsett) signed with Miami. Thirteen went in the second round. Miami only got three. Twelve went in the third round. Miami, again, only got three.

Recently, the bigger issue has been acquisition. We’ve been getting beat for studs. We know the names, and there are 100-page threads on all of them. Manny has addressed this two ways: by shifting the recruiting department from an NFL-style, evaluation-oriented operation (led by Doherty) to a group focused on local relationships (led by Cooney, DVD and Pata). More recently, he has hired position coaches like TRob and Aristide to win battles.

The results have been improving. Leonard Taylor, James Williams, Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton are the types of kids we always missed. Time will tell how this maintains. The hope is that the better recruiting leads to better play on the field and better NFL outcomes, which can be sold to the next generation. Alabama pays for players, but they also sell rings and being the next Amari Cooper/Jerry Jeudy/Calvin Ridley. If Miami has success, it will breed more success.

So let's talk specifics-- what are some realistic goals locally, and how will achieving those goals impact our overall talent level? I went back and looked at Miami's peak of draft classes (2001-2005) and compared it to our past five draft classes (2017-2021). The results were not surprising.

For the 2001-2005 draft classes, South Florida produced 15 first round picks, 5 second round picks and 5 third round picks. Miami signed 64% of these kids, including an amazing 80% of the first rounders.

In the past five draft classes (2017-2021), South Florida has produced 13 first round picks, 8 second round picks and 7 third round picks. Miami has only signed 2 of 28. That's 7%.

It's unrealistic to expect the 2001-2005 numbers in the modern era. There are no sleepers and recruiting has gotten more sophisticated. But if Miami had signed 45% of these kids-- less than half-- it would have a comparable number of Day 1-2 picks to Clemson, UGA and OU while also having a huge volume of Day 3 kids. And once the overall quality of the program improves, it becomes easier to chase big fish nationally.

This isn't really a revolutionary thought or a secret. But it's a good reminder of the path to CFB playoff talent. We need to take care of home base.

Great take except for saying Richt was better than Golden at evals and acquisition. Golden was better. I don't think it is particularly close either.

2011
Dorsett- 3 star
Chickillo- 5 star
Dallas Crawford- 4 star
Denzel Perryman- 3 star
Rashawn Scott- 3 star

2012
Duke- 5 star
Tracy Howard- 5 star
Tyrid Mccord- 4 star
Deon Bush- 4 star
Ereck Flowers- 4 star
Herb Waters- 3 star

2013
AQM- 4 star
Coley- 4 star
Artie Burns- 4 star
Corn- 4 star
Grace 4 star
Gus Edwards 3 star
Odugwu- 3 star

2014
Thomas- 5 star
Yearby- 4 star (yeah we got the wrong one there)
McDermott- 4 star
Kaaya- 4 star
Toolbox Trent- 4 star
Braxton Berrios- 3 star
Herndon- 3 star
Njoku- 3 star
Linder- 3 star

2015
Walton- 4 star
Jacquan - 4 star
Patchan= 3star
Redwine- 3star
McIntosh- 3 star


I'm sure I'm leaving some names off. You've got 3 star recruits who ended up as NFL players all up down that list. I also listed players who were impact college players and could have started on most teams in the country. Golden pulled way more 5 stars than Richt did. Richt's highest rated recruit in 2016 was Sam Bruce. 2017- Jeff Thomas Yikes

This is no defense of Alfraud Golden- he sucked and was an awful coach. However, I think people WANT to view Richt favorably because he's a good dude, but reality is that he was generally terrible at player evals. On the flip side, Richt was a far better coach. This is why Richt peaked with a team of mostly Golden players, then the team collapsed when his own players made up the majority of the roster.
 

Boarcane

🙌
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Jul 10, 2012
Messages
5,846
It’s a lot of work. People think five stars are about bags. If only it was that easy. Beat the living **** out of Alabama. 🙌 We are almost home.
 
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