Miami's NFL talent and getting to the next level

[BoxingRobes]

I think the common mistakes when making these "NFL talent" comparisons is

1) Always comparing ourselves "up" to Alabama, Ohio St. like you said - and never comparing ourselves "down" to places like UNC & VT
2) Not understanding sliding scales - for example:

The talent difference between a 1st Rd pick and a 4th Rd pick is huge. The talent difference between a 4th Rd pick and a 7th Rd pick is small - even though both are 3 rounds apart.

The #1 raked team in the polls is usually much better than the #15th ranked team. The #15 ranked team and the #30 ranked team (if you look at the 5th in other receiving votes) - even though both are 15 spots apart.

Similarly - the #1 ranked recruiting class (Ex. Alabama) is much better than the #15 class (Ex. Miami) - but there's not a big difference between the #15 ranked class and the #30 (Ex. UNC) - even though both are 15 spots apart.

I'm comparing Miami to UNC & VT

Their recruiting classes ranking 2008 - 2018 was generally in the range of Miami #15, VT #25, UNC #30

In the 2010-2021 NFL Drafts - Miami crushes in overall players taken, but the Gap between Day 1&2 "difference maker" type talents is very small

View attachment 146489

We like to think our talent is way above teams like UNC & VT - but the reality is it's pretty close.

Another scale tipper is UNC's definitely had better QB's, and VT probably has too.

One of my favorite lines from Draft Weekend on Twitter...

"A number that doesn't mean much of anything..."

 

[Ethnicsands]

If you take away the elite QB and DL talents, Clemson is Virginia Tech during the Beamer years. Well-coached, tough, ultimately a non-factor.

First and foremost, Clemson is a dynasty because they because they have elite players at the two most important positions.

If you erode their overall talent and depth, they're miami post butch.

You consistently over-focus on NFL kids. Not saying they don’t matter, but Miami is a pretty good example of how they matter and what else matters. You have to have experience, depth, unit integrity and good players beyond your top guys to be competitive. If you have that, some nfl talent can set you apart, agreed. But if you don’t, it really doesn’t much matter what nfl talent you have. That’s why Miami’s on that list despite sucking most years. 5 kids a year go to the nfl. We need 45+ solid players to be competitive.

Evaluations aren’t about nfl potential, either. They’re about finding kids who will be productive players at Miami. Dabo knows how to pick kids who are very good contributors at Clemson. Over-focusing on some nfl potential misleads in two ways. It’s a small portion of the roster, so doesn’t tell you about the bulk of the team. And it’s about future potential not UM performance.

 

[DMoney]

You consistently over-focus on NFL kids.

The best programs produce the most NFL players. The best programs produce the most Day 1-2 picks. The best programs produce the most Day 3 picks. It is a very accurate indicator of program health.

Miami sits alongside the best programs in total NFL players and Day 3 picks. We are way behind in Day 1-2 picks. That is, at this point, our most pressing issue.

The first hurdle we needed to cross was schematic. Our "unit integrity and depth" looked a lot better once we found the right schemes. Just compare the defense in 2015 to 2016 and the offense in 2019 to 2020. The middle class of our roster isn't as good as the top teams, but it's much better than the non-Clemson portion of the ACC. We forget how thin most college football programs really are.

 

[Number1CanesFan]

Focusing on draft picks is not the answer.
The fact that Clemson has had less draft picks and has an automatic seat at the playoffs should let everyone know that.

We’ve been poor at producing quality depth and retaining talent that should not be declaring early.

If I’m not mistaken I believe we’ve had over 25 players either transfer out, career ending injury, or declare early since 2017!!

That’s an entire recruiting class! If you add on top of that the **** poor recruiting class that was somewhat salvaged with the transfer portal after the goose egg against la tech (a short term solution) then we’re actually fortunate to be where we’re at.
Clemson hasn’t had to recruit a full 25 because they actually retain their players and even had that one class where 3 first rounders stayed for their senior year which prompted cmr to say “they must really love that slide”.
Etienne would’ve been drafted exactly where he as last year and so would’ve sunshine but if those 2 players don’t come back their season would’ve been a lot different.

Having a deep roster wether they’re nfl talent or not is way better than having barely any players to field a scout team.

What good is having Jp for one year and Rousseau for 8 games only to have to go looking for transfers.

Evaluation, depth, and retention will go a very long way in terms of wins and losses imo. What good is having first round picks that play on a squad that doesn’t have enough players and where the talent drop off around them is drastic.

I think you're onto something here. Look at some of the teams that never break the top 20 in recruiting class rankings, but get 8+ wins yearly. Teams like Iowa, Iowa State, OK State, Wisconsin, Utah. These teams have a roster full of 3 star players. Take a team like Iowa who is competitive in the Big 10 year in and year out. Whenever they face a team like Ohio State, they're not only competitive, they win some of those games (2017: Iowa 55, OSU 24). I think there are 3 big factors for their success. They are:

1. Veteran teams - rarely an early NFL declarations and a lot of players redshirt.
2. Player development - 3 star players are developed to contribute in their 3rd year. Most likely reshirted as freshman.

3. Great team chemistry - They know who they are and play together as a cohesive unit for what they do.

For a long time, we've had top 15 classes play like top 30-40 teams. That has to end. I'm not saying Miami should recruit like and be an Iowa. What I am saying is Miami has to be successful at the 3 core principles mentioned above to not only win in its weight class, but punch and win above it. That means taking top 15 classes, developing, and playing like a top 10 team. When that happens consistently, Miami's recruiting will break the top 10 recruiting barrier consistently.

With the changes to the coaching staff, I believe better player development is taking place. With the Covid-19 eligibility ruling, this is probably Miami's most veteran experienced team they've had in a long time. So, the question is, will Miami put it all together and be a top 10 team, or will it continue in mediocrity of sub par seasons?

 

[bshaw28]

If you take away the elite QB and DL talents, Clemson is Virginia Tech during the Beamer years. Well-coached, tough, ultimately a non-factor.

First and foremost, Clemson is a dynasty because they because they have elite players at the two most important positions.

I think it's more than that - Clemson has had Elite WR's and more recently DB's too

DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Mike Williams, Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, Hunter Renfrow, Amari Rogers - they've been stacked for 10 years

And DB the last 6-7 years - 6 Day 1&2 DB's drafted in the last 6 drafts

Basically OL has been Clemson's only blind spot under Dabo

 

[Gooner#44]

I think it's more than that - Clemson has had Elite WR's and more recently DB's too

DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Mike Williams, Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, Hunter Renfrow, Amari Rogers - they've been stacked for 10 years

And DB the last 6-7 years - 6 Day 1&2 DB's drafted in the last 6 drafts

Basically OL has been Clemson's only blind spot under Dabo

EXACTLY, they are WAY MORE than DL and QBs only

 

[pacusmc]

I think you're onto something here. Look at some of the teams that never break the top 20 in recruiting class rankings, but get 8+ wins yearly. Teams like Iowa, Iowa State, OK State, Wisconsin, Utah. These teams have a roster full of 3 star players. Take a team like Iowa who is competitive in the Big 10 year in and year out. Whenever they face a team like Ohio State, they're not only competitive, they win some of those games (2017: Iowa 55, OSU 24). I think there are 3 big factors for their success. They are:

1. Veteran teams - rarely an early NFL declarations and a lot of players redshirt.
2. Player development - 3 star players are developed to contribute in their 3rd year. Most likely reshirted as freshman.

3. Great team chemistry - They know who they are and play together as a cohesive unit for what they do.

For a long time, we've had top 15 classes play like top 30-40 teams. That has to end. I'm not saying Miami should recruit like and be an Iowa. What I am saying is Miami has to be successful at the 3 core principles mentioned above to not only win in its weight class, but punch and win above it. That means taking top 15 classes, developing, and playing like a top 10 team. When that happens consistently, Miami's recruiting will break the top 10 recruiting barrier consistently.

With the changes to the coaching staff, I believe better player development is taking place. With the Covid-19 eligibility ruling, this is probably Miami's most veteran experienced team they've had in a long time. So, the question is, will Miami put it all together and be a top 10 team, or will it continue in mediocrity of sub par seasons?

Yes. We constantly say “win the coastal” “beat teams we’re supposed to”
But sometimes (not all) we’ve lost to teams who have 4th and 5th year players in the trenches. Defenses that have played together for a while. Offenses running the same scheme for years with no coaching turnover.
Yes there have been head scratching loses that have nothing to do with that and that’s on the coaching 100.

But look at the Wisconsin teams we lost to. They were stacked upper class men and didn’t have any roster problems or multiple dudes leaving too early or massive coaching turnovers.

 

[423Hurricane]

Yes. We constantly say “win the coastal” “beat teams we’re supposed to”
But sometimes (not all) we’ve lost to teams who have 4th and 5th year players in the trenches. Defenses that have played together for a while. Offenses running the same scheme for years with no coaching turnover.
Yes there have been head scratching loses that have nothing to do with that and that’s on the coaching 100.

But look at the Wisconsin teams we lost to. They were stacked upper class men and didn’t have any roster problems or multiple dudes leaving too early or massive coaching turnovers.

I believe your point about experience and depth can’t be understated. We’ve been short handed for years due to a multitude of reasons. This years team is the most experienced and depth laden we’ve had in years. The pandemic may have had a silver lining in that many “draft eligible” players returned and took advantage of the extra year.

 

[BoxingRobes]

The best programs produce the most NFL players. The best programs produce the most Day 1-2 picks. The best programs produce the most Day 3 picks. It is a very accurate indicator of program health.

Miami sits alongside the best programs in total NFL players and Day 3 picks. We are way behind in Day 1-2 picks. That is, at this point, our most pressing issue.

The first hurdle we needed to cross was schematic. Our "unit integrity and depth" looked a lot better once we found the right schemes. Just compare the defense in 2015 to 2016 and the offense in 2019 to 2020. The middle class of our roster isn't as good as the top teams, but its much better than the non-Clemson portion of the ACC. We forget how thin most college football programs really are.

Considering Miami produces the most Day 3 picks...thats simply not true. Day 3 picks literally mean nothing.



I posted this several times on here. Yeah, Alabama and Oklahoma are the list...so is Miami, Arkansas, Florida (81-45 since Meyer left a decade ago), UCLA, South Carolina, Michigan, Iowa. Those Day 3 picks DO.NOT.MATTER.

Top 100 picks...



A little closer to the point you would like to make. I believe Miami has 10.

 

[DMoney]

I think it's more than that - Clemson has had Elite WR's and more recently DB's too

WR for sure. That's been the trifecta for them: QB-DL-WR.

Their DBs have been OK but nothing special. We actually have as many DBs in the NFL than they do. Theirs are better than ours but not as good as the top teams.

 

[DMoney]

Considering Miami produces the most Day 3 picks...thats simply not true. Day 3 picks literally mean nothing.

That graphic contradicts your point. The five teams after Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson.

In terms of total NFL draft picks, the teams ahead of Miami are Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Florida and Georgia. The teams right behind Miami are Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma.

The only colleges with more active NFL players are Alabama, Ohio State, LSU and Florida.

You get the point. It's absurd to suggest these numbers don't matter. Of course they do. The best programs produce Day 3 picks at high volume.

Obviously, our failure to produce Day 1-2 picks is a massive issue. That's the premise of the OP. If we start signing a little under half of the local Day 1-2 picks, as opposed to 7%, we will jump to the top talent echelon.

 

[Canes Legacy]

To me, it doesn't matter who we land because we do a poor job developing them and/or placing them into a system to be successful.

Coker- country club, unwilling to adapt (Berlin- shotgun)
Shannon- horrible all around with evals/development
Golden- could have landed 20 5* defensive players and still would have been dog walked week in, week out on defense.
Richt- showed he was a has been. Refused to adapt because he wanted to call plays that worked 20 years ago. QB position was atrocious.

Manny- jury is still out but at least so far he's shown the willingness to adapt which is a huge step in the right direction compared to his predecessors.

 

[BoxingRobes]

That graphic contradicts your point. The five teams after Miami are Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson.

No, it does not. The fact Miami has the most, and we stink, and the subsequent teams that follow are good, followed by more Miami type of teams contradict yours.

Because good teams, mid teams, and **** teams are on the same list, doesn't mean the mid and **** should be good, but simply are not for reasons not related to talent. It means talent at that level (Bottom 150 draftable players) do.not.matter. There is no causation there. A correlation. But definitely not causation.

It doesn't matter.

The Top 100...it matters more, obv.

You've been touting total number, which has been propped up by Day 3 guys for years and man, it doesn't matter for anything.

For Miami to compete with teams above them, they need some fluky statistical advantage, like ridiculous turnover margin (luck based stat) or some sort of anomaly that would play a factor in the game. But talent? They can't compete. Not enough thoroughbreds.

 

[Gooner#44]

In the 2017 Bama-Clemson Title game Bama had 19 starters drafted, Clemson 11

In the 2019 Bama-Clemson Title game Bama had 18 drafted, Clemson 15

That's a whole bunch of talent on the field

 

[BoxingRobes]

In the 2017 Bama-Clemson Title game Bama had 19 starters drafted, Clemson 11

In the 2019 Bama-Clemson Title game Bama had 18 drafted, Clemson 15

That's a whole bunch of talent on the field

Take a look at some of the tweets that showed the talent during the 2019 Alabama-LSU game and comparing it to the 2011 game (I think that was the MANBALL CHRISTMAS game)

Both games had ridiculous numbers in regard to talent, but 2011 was a flood of defensive players at the top and 2019 was offensive players. Pretty interesting to see the difference over the decade.

 

[Gooner#44]

Take a look at some of the tweets that showed the talent during the 2019 Alabama-LSU game and comparing it to the 2011 game (I think that was the MANBALL CHRISTMAS game)

Both games had ridiculous numbers in regard to talent, but 2011 was a flood of defensive players at the top and 2019 was offensive players. Pretty interesting to see the difference over the decade.

I think it is conceivable there will soon be teams that get all 22 starters drafted. Bama is pretty much there now. But yes the talent has swung from the D more to the O. If you have an elite athlete and you have to pick a side you put him on offense now, not defense

 

[DMoney]

No, it does not. The fact Miami has the most, and we stink, and the subsequent teams that follow are good, followed by more Miami type of teams contradict yours.

The teams that produce the most Day 3 picks, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. The teams that produce the most the total draft picks, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. The teams that produce the most active NFL players, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. It's absurd to suggest it doesn't matter when the professionals pick and pay so many of your players.

The reason there is such a talent disparity between Miami and those teams is the absence of top-level guys. Nobody has ever disputed that. That's the point of the OP deep dive.

The flip side is that we have a ton of dormant talent on both sides of the ball compared to the rest of the country. That's why the defense went from 85th to 13th in scoring defense when we subbed Dorito for Diaz. That's why the offense went from 99th to 24th in scoring offense when we subbed Enos for Lashlee.

Those Day 3 picks are good enough to consistently beat average ACC teams when they are put in a position to succeed. Last year proved that. Now let's get some more Phillips and Rousseaus to compete with the real teams.

 

[NJshoreCane]

Miami’s last 5 recruiting classes as ranked by 247 are : 11th, 16th, 27th, 8th, 12th. Which averages just under 15th overall. So I guess you’d probably want to compare with teams in the 12-18 range to get a reasonable number.

I always laugh when people try to compare what we do in recruiting to teams like Alabama and Ohio State. It’s a completely different stratosphere. Honestly Alabama should be putting 6 guys in the first round EVERY year if you go by recruiting rankings.

**** that '19 class hurt.
To think an Appy State flip and a punter may be the crown jewels of 2019.

I'm not hating on Zion and Hedley. At all.
The pleasant surprises should supplement the expected studs of the class.
Not be thee players of the class.

Still a few years to go, so we'll see.

 

[BoxingRobes]

The teams that produce the most Day 3 picks, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. The teams that produce the most the total draft picks, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. The teams that produce the most active NFL players, besides Miami, are the best programs in the country. It's absurd to suggest it doesn't matter when the professionals pick and pay so many of your players.

The reason there is such a talent disparity between Miami and those teams is the absence of top-level guys. Nobody has ever disputed that. That's the point of the OP deep dive.

The flip side is that we have a ton of dormant talent on both sides of the ball compared to the rest of the country. That's why the defense went from 85th to 13th in scoring defense when we subbed Dorito for Diaz. That's why the offense went from 99th to 24th in scoring offense when we subbed Enos for Lashlee.

Those Day 3 picks are good enough to consistently beat average ACC teams when they are put in a position to succeed. Last year proved that. Now let's get some more Phillips and Rousseaus to compete with the real teams.

It doesn't matter, man. All that says is there is a correlation, not a causation. Miami's number is skewed and is a clear outlier (no duh) because of an inordinate amount of Day 3 picks...which again...do.not.matter.

The fact that Miami can beat Duke now is cool and all...but again, we are "more talented" according to your metric...but still get the brakes blown off against UNC and thats with Diaz and Lashlee. All of that Day 3 talent does.not.matter. For every one Day 3 pick Miami has - which are our top guys, Alabama has like 2 Top 100 guys.

The talent comes after you get the coach and coordinators and you get the level up QB. You can have all of the Day 3 picks you want, but unless you've got Big Time Coach...Big Time Coordinators...and the Fighter Pilot...the Day 3 picks do.not.matter. ****, the R1 TE and R1 EDGE guys (that never play together) don't matter either.

 

[pacusmc]

Another thing that people fail to look at when they concentrate on draft picks are the players on those are playoff teams that are starters and don’t make the league.
A lot of those guys would take spots on our team. Who doesn’t want some of those oline players on uga or Bama or Oklahoma that weren’t drafted over the past 10 years?
No way any of those guys are the same as the olineman we got that didn’t get an invite.
Anybody want any of the Wisconsin guys that are starting right now but aren’t getting drafted?