CoCaneHead
Junior
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- Nov 5, 2011
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Duke johnson an elite RB??? Ohh lawd
Bshaw, Walton's production in October was abysmal. I will give him some slack because that was also when Kaaya looked like dog**** and teams were loading the box against the run, daring us to throw which we couldn't. Regardless, Walton is not great based on last year, B- type, C vs decent power 5 teams. The projection is for him to become a B+ or better overall, B- or better vs decent power 5 teams in the upcoming season based upon his demonstrated progression since his freshman year.
I don't think he'll ever be elite. But he could end up very good in an offense that favors the run due to limitations at QB. I expect Walton averages 20 or more rushes a game, which at 14 games at 5 ypc is 1400 yards. Hopefully he carries fewer times for higher ypcs; would mean our QBs and backup RBs are capable of sharing the load more.
I hear you, and you make great points. Honestly, it's ridiculous of me to say Walton getting 1,400 is impossible. It's definitely is possible. I think if you take an optimistic outlook you can see it, and I'm just taking a pessimistic approach because I don't like Walton.
Regardless of my thoughts on Walton, these are my reasons why I (pessimistically) think a 1,400 yard season won't happen:
1) YPC - It's rare for a RB's ypc to increase incrementally each year he's in college. On paper, it seems like it makes sense that it would, but in reality it doesn't. Example - of the Top 5 leading rushers in the ACC in 2015, all 5 had a lower ypc in 2016.
2) Passing Game - If the passing game struggled at times last year with Kaaya throwing to Richards/Coley/Njoku, and it caused Walton to struggle, then I'm assuming it's going to struggle at times this year with Perry/Rosier/Sherrifs throwing to Richards/Thomas/Herndon this year, with the same effect on Walton.
3) Amount of Carries 20 carries x 14 games = 280 carries. Again, this sounds like it makes sense on paper, but in actuality it's rare. Only 7 RB's had 280 or more carries last year. Most carries ever by a Miami RB in a season - 1) McGahee (282), 2) Tie - with Duke & Edge (242). Most carries by a Georgia RB under Richt - 1) Musa Smith (260), 2) Knowshon Moreno (250). 280 is just a really high number.
Bshaw, Walton's production in October was abysmal. I will give him some slack because that was also when Kaaya looked like dog**** and teams were loading the box against the run, daring us to throw which we couldn't. Regardless, Walton is not great based on last year, B- type, C vs decent power 5 teams. The projection is for him to become a B+ or better overall, B- or better vs decent power 5 teams in the upcoming season based upon his demonstrated progression since his freshman year.
I don't think he'll ever be elite. But he could end up very good in an offense that favors the run due to limitations at QB. I expect Walton averages 20 or more rushes a game, which at 14 games at 5 ypc is 1400 yards. Hopefully he carries fewer times for higher ypcs; would mean our QBs and backup RBs are capable of sharing the load more.
I hear you, and you make great points. Honestly, it's ridiculous of me to say Walton getting 1,400 is impossible. It's definitely is possible. I think if you take an optimistic outlook you can see it, and I'm just taking a pessimistic approach because I don't like Walton.
Regardless of my thoughts on Walton, these are my reasons why I (pessimistically) think a 1,400 yard season won't happen:
1) YPC - It's rare for a RB's ypc to increase incrementally each year he's in college. On paper, it seems like it makes sense that it would, but in reality it doesn't. Example - of the Top 5 leading rushers in the ACC in 2015, all 5 had a lower ypc in 2016.
2) Passing Game - If the passing game struggled at times last year with Kaaya throwing to Richards/Coley/Njoku, and it caused Walton to struggle, then I'm assuming it's going to struggle at times this year with Perry/Rosier/Sherrifs throwing to Richards/Thomas/Herndon this year, with the same effect on Walton.
3) Amount of Carries 20 carries x 14 games = 280 carries. Again, this sounds like it makes sense on paper, but in actuality it's rare. Only 7 RB's had 280 or more carries last year. Most carries ever by a Miami RB in a season - 1) McGahee (282), 2) Tie - with Duke & Edge (242). Most carries by a Georgia RB under Richt - 1) Musa Smith (260), 2) Knowshon Moreno (250). 280 is just a really high number.
Points 2 and 3 are valid, but on point 1 your analysis is wrong. Better to look at overall average YPC of all returning backs with a minimum of, say, 100 carries, rather than the top 5 backs in YPC. Outliers on average revert to the mean, which means that backs with incredible seasons will likely do worse the following season. Similarly, backs with poor seasons will likely do better the following season. The key is to focus in on the average returning back with sufficient carries (sample size). Your use of statistics is awful.
Please stop trying to use Walton's true freshman season as part of your argument if you want to have any credibility. I agree he has bad vision at times, but he made huge improvements over the course of this past season and was much better than he was as a true freshman. If we have competent QB play this year, Walton will definitely run for around 1400 because the o-line is going to be much better.
Most players aren't anywhere near their potential as a true freshman, so stop with that nonsense. He's the best returning back in the ACC and will likely finish as top three as well, maybe even the best if he can keep improving his vision as he did in 2016.
This..... walton was a different back when you compare his 2015 film to his 2016 film. He will continue to improve
OK - so let's throw Walton's entire Freshman season out. He was young and wasn't ready. Got it. But understand - you can't then reference any runs that were called back. You can't reference any good plays in 2015 if you're not willing to acknowledge any bad plays either.
2016 - First 3 games - FAMU, FAU, App St.
Walton goes 48 for 401, 8.4 ypc, 7 TD's. Has a 30+ run in all 3 games
2016 - Next 5 games - GT, FSU, UNC, VT, ND
Walton goes 82 for 248, 3.0 ypc, 2 TD's. His longest run is 16 yards
YTD Stats - 130 for 649, 5.0 ypc, 9 TD's
2016 - Next 3 games - Pitt, UVA, NC St.
Walton goes 49 for 356, 7.3 ypc, 5 TD's. He has a 25+ yd run in all 3 games
YTD Stats - 179 for 1,005, 5.6 ypc, 14 TD's
2016 - Next 2 games - Duke & WVU
Walton goes 30 for 112, 3.7 ypc, 0 TD's. He has a 22 yd run
YTD Stats - 209 for 1,117, 5.3 ypc, 14 TD's
Between the first carry in the App St. game and his last carry in the Pitt game, Walton had 110 carries for 334 yds, a 3.3 ypc, and 1 run over 20 yards. That's a pretty good chunk of the season where he just didn't play well.
So I'd say his 2016 was much better, no question, but still pretty inconsistent.
If he showed so much improvement in the first 3 games, what happened in the next 5? If he showed so much improvement in the next 3 games, what happened in the last 2?
To get to 1,400 yds in 2017 - Walton will need to average 100 yds per game, and we'll get to the ACCCG so that we play in 14 games.
So is the thought process - Walton was bad in every game his Freshman year, he was good in about 50% of his games his Sophomore year, so he'll be good in 100% of his games his Junior Year?
[MENTION=1107]bshaw28[/MENTION] Where is Walton at in terms of TD's with those top rushers
Walton is really good here.
His 14 TD's were tied for 26th in the NCAA. His TD's per carry were 24th.
He scored a TD every 14.9 carries which is great.
His TD's per carry were basically the same as Yearby (14.6), and better than Fournette (16.13), McCaffery (19.4), Cook (15.6), Mixon (18.7)
YPC & TD's Per Carry are, IMO, the 2 best metrics to look for in a RB. Just for their running ability, not counting how they are as a receiver or anything else. But a RB's main responsibility should be to run the ball.
"In general" - the baselines you want in an "elite" RB the college level are:
YPC - 5.5
TD's Per Carry - 20 or less
[MENTION=1107]bshaw28[/MENTION] Where is Walton at in terms of TD's with those top rushers
Walton is really good here.
His 14 TD's were tied for 26th in the NCAA. His TD's per carry were 24th.
He scored a TD every 14.9 carries which is great.
His TD's per carry were basically the same as Yearby (14.6), and better than Fournette (16.13), McCaffery (19.4), Cook (15.6), Mixon (18.7)
YPC & TD's Per Carry are, IMO, the 2 best metrics to look for in a RB. Just for their running ability, not counting how they are as a receiver or anything else. But a RB's main responsibility should be to run the ball.
"In general" - the baselines you want in an "elite" RB the college level are:
YPC - 5.5
TD's Per Carry - 20 or less
Walton had 400 yards and 7 TD's against scrubs. App State, Florida A&M, and FAU. In the remaining 10 games against D1 opponents, he had 600 yards and 7 TD's. He did have a nice 3 game stretch though against against Pitt, UVA and NC State.
[TWEET]i[/TWEET]Please stop trying to use Walton's true freshman season as part of your argument if you want to have any credibility. I agree he has bad vision at times, but he made huge improvements over the course of this past season and was much better than he was as a true freshman. If we have competent QB play this year, Walton will definitely run for around 1400 because the o-line is going to be much better.
Most players aren't anywhere near their potential as a true freshman, so stop with that nonsense. He's the best returning back in the ACC and will likely finish as top three as well, maybe even the best if he can keep improving his vision as he did in 2016.
This..... walton was a different back when you compare his 2015 film to his 2016 film. He will continue to improve
OK - so let's throw Walton's entire Freshman season out. He was young and wasn't ready. Got it. But understand - you can't then reference any runs that were called back. You can't reference any good plays in 2015 if you're not willing to acknowledge any bad plays either.
2016 - First 3 games - FAMU, FAU, App St.
Walton goes 48 for 401, 8.4 ypc, 7 TD's. Has a 30+ run in all 3 games
2016 - Next 5 games - GT, FSU, UNC, VT, ND
Walton goes 82 for 248, 3.0 ypc, 2 TD's. His longest run is 16 yards
YTD Stats - 130 for 649, 5.0 ypc, 9 TD's
2016 - Next 3 games - Pitt, UVA, NC St.
Walton goes 49 for 356, 7.3 ypc, 5 TD's. He has a 25+ yd run in all 3 games
YTD Stats - 179 for 1,005, 5.6 ypc, 14 TD's
2016 - Next 2 games - Duke & WVU
Walton goes 30 for 112, 3.7 ypc, 0 TD's. He has a 22 yd run
YTD Stats - 209 for 1,117, 5.3 ypc, 14 TD's
Between the first carry in the App St. game and his last carry in the Pitt game, Walton had 110 carries for 334 yds, a 3.3 ypc, and 1 run over 20 yards. That's a pretty good chunk of the season where he just didn't play well.
So I'd say his 2016 was much better, no question, but still pretty inconsistent.
If he showed so much improvement in the first 3 games, what happened in the next 5? If he showed so much improvement in the next 3 games, what happened in the last 2?
To get to 1,400 yds in 2017 - Walton will need to average 100 yds per game, and we'll get to the ACCCG so that we play in 14 games.
So is the thought process - Walton was bad in every game his Freshman year, he was good in about 50% of his games his Sophomore year, so he'll be good in 100% of his games his Junior Year?
Man do you even watch Miami football games? Do you realize how abysmal our o-line was for much of the season? I already agreed that his vision isn't always the best, but a lot of the time he has nowhere to run to begin with. This agenda you have against Walton is downright strange no matter how many stats you post. A lot of Walton's runs involved having to completely cut back because there was nothing even slightly resembling a hole for him to run through.
He's not an elite, first round back. But he's very good, I would say just a notch below that elite level. With an improved o-line, which it will be, Walton will have much more consistent numbers and I say he'll either get drafted in the second or third round.
And yes, I'd say scrap his freshman season, good and bad. Maybe "scrap" isn't the best word, but the point is that using it in your argument is silly because he was a **** true freshmen. Elite, or even very good seasons as a true freshman are very rare so it's simply unfair to try using it against him. If the o-line stays fairly healthy (no major injuries or at least not more than one), Walton will run for even more, I'll say 1400-1500 yards. Hard to say this early but the line seems to be improved, especially with Donaldson, who I believe will be one of those vey rare true freshmen by the way.
Walton's out-rushed all the b!tches y'all cried about not getting in 15' (Scarlett,Williams, & Cronkrite).
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[TWEET]i[/TWEET]Please stop trying to use Walton's true freshman season as part of your argument if you want to have any credibility. I agree he has bad vision at times, but he made huge improvements over the course of this past season and was much better than he was as a true freshman. If we have competent QB play this year, Walton will definitely run for around 1400 because the o-line is going to be much better.
Most players aren't anywhere near their potential as a true freshman, so stop with that nonsense. He's the best returning back in the ACC and will likely finish as top three as well, maybe even the best if he can keep improving his vision as he did in 2016.
This..... walton was a different back when you compare his 2015 film to his 2016 film. He will continue to improve
OK - so let's throw Walton's entire Freshman season out. He was young and wasn't ready. Got it. But understand - you can't then reference any runs that were called back. You can't reference any good plays in 2015 if you're not willing to acknowledge any bad plays either.
2016 - First 3 games - FAMU, FAU, App St.
Walton goes 48 for 401, 8.4 ypc, 7 TD's. Has a 30+ run in all 3 games
2016 - Next 5 games - GT, FSU, UNC, VT, ND
Walton goes 82 for 248, 3.0 ypc, 2 TD's. His longest run is 16 yards
YTD Stats - 130 for 649, 5.0 ypc, 9 TD's
2016 - Next 3 games - Pitt, UVA, NC St.
Walton goes 49 for 356, 7.3 ypc, 5 TD's. He has a 25+ yd run in all 3 games
YTD Stats - 179 for 1,005, 5.6 ypc, 14 TD's
2016 - Next 2 games - Duke & WVU
Walton goes 30 for 112, 3.7 ypc, 0 TD's. He has a 22 yd run
YTD Stats - 209 for 1,117, 5.3 ypc, 14 TD's
Between the first carry in the App St. game and his last carry in the Pitt game, Walton had 110 carries for 334 yds, a 3.3 ypc, and 1 run over 20 yards. That's a pretty good chunk of the season where he just didn't play well.
So I'd say his 2016 was much better, no question, but still pretty inconsistent.
If he showed so much improvement in the first 3 games, what happened in the next 5? If he showed so much improvement in the next 3 games, what happened in the last 2?
To get to 1,400 yds in 2017 - Walton will need to average 100 yds per game, and we'll get to the ACCCG so that we play in 14 games.
So is the thought process - Walton was bad in every game his Freshman year, he was good in about 50% of his games his Sophomore year, so he'll be good in 100% of his games his Junior Year?
Man do you even watch Miami football games? Do you realize how abysmal our o-line was for much of the season? I already agreed that his vision isn't always the best, but a lot of the time he has nowhere to run to begin with. This agenda you have against Walton is downright strange no matter how many stats you post. A lot of Walton's runs involved having to completely cut back because there was nothing even slightly resembling a hole for him to run through.
He's not an elite, first round back. But he's very good, I would say just a notch below that elite level. With an improved o-line, which it will be, Walton will have much more consistent numbers and I say he'll either get drafted in the second or third round.
And yes, I'd say scrap his freshman season, good and bad. Maybe "scrap" isn't the best word, but the point is that using it in your argument is silly because he was a **** true freshmen. Elite, or even very good seasons as a true freshman are very rare so it's simply unfair to try using it against him. If the o-line stays fairly healthy (no major injuries or at least not more than one), Walton will run for even more, I'll say 1400-1500 yards. Hard to say this early but the line seems to be improved, especially with Donaldson, who I believe will be one of those vey rare true freshmen by the way.
The OL Excuse:
The OL, while nowhere near great, should not be taking all the heat here. A lot of it has to do with Walton's running style. The main things he does is:
1) He'll approach the line of scrimmage, cut laterally, then try to make a move. While it works sometimes, it causing him to get caught behind the line of scrimmage too much. He doesn't have the quickness/athelticism to improvise behind the LOS. If a defender is filling the hole, he needs to lower his head and take him on, or cut at an angle while still moving forward to avoid losses. The lateral cuts behind the LOS that result in losses are often on Walton, not the OL. You can see his natural instinct to stop, lateral cut, then accelerate in the open field too. Too often he's killing his own forward momentum.
2) His vision problems are not so much in finding the hole as it is locking into one defender. He'll run straight into another defender or his own lineman, which could not be avoided if he weren't locked on to just one guy. He'll run into someone right in front of him because he's locked onto a guy coming from the side. He'll run lateral or backwards just to avoid the defender he's locked onto, instead of concentrating on getting downfield, which results in lost yardage.
2016
- Walton had 209 carries. He lost 62 yds
- Yearby & Gus combined for 161 carries & lost a combined 27 yds
Career
- Walton - 338 carries, 97 yds lost
- Duke - 526 carries, 97 yds lost
- Yearby - 393 carries, 68 yds lost
- Gus - 186 carries, 27 yds lost
You can see he loses yards as much higher rate than any other recent RB. It's not like the OL only blocks bad for Walton, and good for everyone else. Walton's style causes him to leave a good amount of yards on the field.
Yearby ran behind the same OL the last 2 years and averaged 1.4 yds more in 2015, and 0.7 yds more in 2016 - same OL, same offense - so it can't all be on the OL.
As for getting 1,400-1,500 yards and getting drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds:
- 21 RB's have been drafted in the first 3 rounds of the last 3 drafts
- 16 of the 21 had a career YPC of 6.0+ yds
- 2 of the 21 had a career YPC under 5.5 yds. Both those RB's were 6'1"+ and 225+ lbs.
- Walton goes 5'9" 205 lbs. and runs a 4.6
- Walton has a career YPC of 4.6 yds. If Walton equals McGahee's Soph year this year, that will push his career YPC to 5.3
- Fournette, McCaffery, Cook, Mixon - they averaged 3.5 yds or less in 18 of their 132 career games
- Walton average 3.5 yds or less in 15 of his first 21 games
Fans/people on this board/whoever can dismiss Walton's first 21 games and concentrate on the NC St. game, but trust me, NFL Scouts aren't going to do that.
I fully admit I'm a bit psychotic with these stats. I'm just completely amazed that people continue to have such a high expectations of Walton. It just isn't going to happen
Walton looks bigger than McGahee
Walton looks bigger than McGahee
Not sure if serious
Walton looks bigger than McGahee
Not sure if serious
[TWEET]861955688167337984[/TWEET]
Happy for him, he's becoming a complete back and showed a lot of flashes last year. Excited to see how much better he will be this season.
Please stop trying to use Walton's true freshman season as part of your argument if you want to have any credibility. I agree he has bad vision at times, but he made huge improvements over the course of this past season and was much better than he was as a true freshman. If we have competent QB play this year, Walton will definitely run for around 1400 because the o-line is going to be much better.
Most players aren't anywhere near their potential as a true freshman, so stop with that nonsense. He's the best returning back in the ACC and will likely finish as top three as well, maybe even the best if he can keep improving his vision as he did in 2016.
This..... walton was a different back when you compare his 2015 film to his 2016 film. He will continue to improve
OK - so let's throw Walton's entire Freshman season out. He was young and wasn't ready. Got it. But understand - you can't then reference any runs that were called back. You can't reference any good plays in 2015 if you're not willing to acknowledge any bad plays either.
2016 - First 3 games - FAMU, FAU, App St.
Walton goes 48 for 401, 8.4 ypc, 7 TD's. Has a 30+ run in all 3 games
2016 - Next 5 games - GT, FSU, UNC, VT, ND
Walton goes 82 for 248, 3.0 ypc, 2 TD's. His longest run is 16 yards
YTD Stats - 130 for 649, 5.0 ypc, 9 TD's
2016 - Next 3 games - Pitt, UVA, NC St.
Walton goes 49 for 356, 7.3 ypc, 5 TD's. He has a 25+ yd run in all 3 games
YTD Stats - 179 for 1,005, 5.6 ypc, 14 TD's
2016 - Next 2 games - Duke & WVU
Walton goes 30 for 112, 3.7 ypc, 0 TD's. He has a 22 yd run
YTD Stats - 209 for 1,117, 5.3 ypc, 14 TD's
Between the first carry in the App St. game and his last carry in the Pitt game, Walton had 110 carries for 334 yds, a 3.3 ypc, and 1 run over 20 yards. That's a pretty good chunk of the season where he just didn't play well.
So I'd say his 2016 was much better, no question, but still pretty inconsistent.
If he showed so much improvement in the first 3 games, what happened in the next 5? If he showed so much improvement in the next 3 games, what happened in the last 2?
To get to 1,400 yds in 2017 - Walton will need to average 100 yds per game, and we'll get to the ACCCG so that we play in 14 games.
So is the thought process - Walton was bad in every game his Freshman year, he was good in about 50% of his games his Sophomore year, so he'll be good in 100% of his games his Junior Year?