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Is FSU Actually Good?

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They are well coached, and have very explosive guys on O. They lack depth though on both sides, and if they get behind and have to play out of their comfort zone, they could collapse. That is a notorious flaw for Malzahn’s O. Looking forward to the result of Hetherman having 2 weeks to get ready for this. We must be disciplined here and knock **** back.

I don’t see us having an issue running the ball on them though and I expect us to lean on them to limit their possessions.
 
I don’t know how valuable analytics are this early in the year.

From what I’ve seen, FSU has a clear identity and players who fit that identity- some track stars at receiver for the Jet sweeps, a go-up-and-get-it guy for the deep shots, a running QB. They will be improved and motivated.

But they have a lot of bad players from the bargain bin. That’s why I suspect we will be a solid favorite. Rivalry games on the road are always tough so we’ll see.
 
If we play our style, we play keep away with the ball. We have 2 scoring drives per quarter. FSU could go 3 & 0 >50% if their drives. They will also get some quick scores. I could see time of possession killing FSUs hopes of winning. It keeps our D fresh and slowly grinds up their D.
 
I expect a close game. Our tuff and fizical ends up the difference

If we blow out FSU in their barn though…
 
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Poptimus said:
We will likely open as -3.5 -105 favorites (F$U +3.5 -115). The ESPN matchup predictor has us a 60% likely winner and it is highly in tune with the point spread. A 60% fave correlates to a 3.5 point favorite. Expect a close game.

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SP+ makes it Miami -8 on a neutral. He still has FSU ranked 31 (Miami is 12).

Sagarin has it -7.5 on a neutral.
 
Beck needs to have a great game. We will control the line of scrimmage and pound and pound. We have always relied on our running game to beat FSU. Keep their offense off the field.
 
Lance Roffers said:
Yes. I think they are actually very good. Alabama has elite analytics and they stomped them.

I would probably have FSU as the favorite being at home, not a prediction, but a betting favorite.
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@Lance Roffers Any plans to do a film analysis of them? I was singularly unimpressed by the linemen on both sides of the ball last season. Even Jackson whom I was super bummed when he transferred looked like Tarzan played like Jane for them (and for us). But I don't know how well their transfers are playing.

Maybe returning kids really stepped up and the transfers plugged the holes. Mario scored in the portal, so it's possible Mikie did to. But it seems like a lot to ask, to go from 2-10 and unable to play sound football to ACCCG level in 9 months.
 
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I believe they are a good offense for their scheme. Thats pretty clear – hard to put up the number of points they have and argue against that. To add, this is a primarily run-based offense that still scores the amount of points that they do. It's impressive, idc who they've played. Now, what happens when they game an elite run stopping defense? Can they throw consistently? Can they bring some semblance of balance to the offense? Castellanos has thrown the ball 38 times this year. For reference, Beck threw the ball 30 times in Saturday's game alone and 112 times on the year so far.

Are we an elite run stopping defense? Metrics say yes. But, a few of those sweeps UF ran on Saturday night had people holding their breath. What does our perimeter run defense look like against FSU? That's where we either get beat or we force them to throw and likely gain and maintain the edge.

Hard to tell at this time what that looks like for us. Need the LB's to pass protect against wheels, flats, etc and they need to set the edge on perimeter run defense. I think this will be one of the best games of the year, and possibly one of the best in the history of the rivalry.
 
My observations...
Castellanos is pretty good at throwing to his right. They've got a knack for big throwing plays to the right. An absurd 15.6 YPA on average passing right now.
FSU 2ndary will likely try to replicate their success from last year, seeing if our WRs can get any separation. They are pretty good there. If Dawson and Beck don't have a strategy to dump it off... Beck will be sacked, even if our OL is more consistent than Bamas at pass protect.
Bama gave very little effort on D. You've got WRs just charging through arm tackles on end around.
I think this FSU O is reminiscent of when Malzahn had difficult to stop offenses at Auburn. He's in his bag right now.
 
grover said:
@Lance Roffers Any plans to do a film analysis of them? I was singularly unimpressed by the linemen on both sides of the ball last season. Even Jackson whom I was super bummed when he transferred looked like Tarzan played like Jane for them (and for us). But I don't know how well their transfers are playing.

Maybe returning kids really stepped up and the transfers plugged the holes. Mario scored in the portal, so it's possible Mikie did to. But it seems like a lot to ask, to go from 2-10 and unable to play sound football to ACCCG level in 9 months.
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Their OL is old, experienced, and understated (at least on here). They transferred in. They are seemingly paper thin, though.
 
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