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I think we steamroll VT by 20+
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HighSeas
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No you literally said "you mean one year" when there were in fact 2 years. So your statement is false. Nice try though.
College Football Betting: Early look at CFB Week 11 based on PFF's predictive models | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF
Using PFF's prediction algorithms as a guide, PFF's Ben Brown takes a closer look at the best games to target in Week 11 of the college football season.
www.pff.com
MIAMI HURRICANES @ VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
The Hokies let a winnable game slip away as 17-point home favorites last week. The optics from Week 10 make this a perplexing line to start the week, with these teams seemingly heading in opposite directions after their latest performances.
However, not everything was negative for the Hokies, as their offense has finally found its rhythm with QB Hendon Hooker back. Virginia Tech is third in our opponent-adjusted offensive grades, with the Hurricanes eighth in the ACC. Virginia Tech has consistently moved the ball since Hooker’s return in Week 6 — their EPA per pass play mark is at the same level as Miami‘s while their EPA per rush attempt ranks first in the ACC.
The betting market has been one-sided early in the week, with 82% of the cash and 80% of the tickets on the Hurricanes. This hasn’t caused an adjustment to the early-week spread, as the opening -2 has held throughout the week.
Typically, when something feels off in the betting market, there is a reason for it. The public will quickly look at this line and assume the Hurricanes should be favored, given their recent performance and overall ranking. They are 15th in our Elo rankings, so it is possible that we are lower on them than the market. It is also possible that our opponent-adjusted grades are undervaluing the Hurricanes' offense, but that would indicate their defense is overvalued.
This looks like an ideal spot to buy low on the Hokies while also subsequently selling high on the Hurricanes, given the recent play of Hendon Hooker. This makes for the perfect opportunity to fade the market's recency bias, with a bounce-back game for the Hokies expected by our predictive models.
Pick: Virginia Tech -2
It's only me, the legend @The Franchise and the sharp analytics community who are concerned. The homers and square bettors are confident as ever. We'll see how it goes.
305407cane
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We have said this for every game
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Gables Cane
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More food for thought...
We tend think that Miami has a very dynamic offense. Yet, Miami has just two offensive players who receive grades of 70+ by PFF. King's grade is a 91.6 and Mike Harley is at 73.3. That's it.
By contrast, VT has nine players that score above 70 including 3 players above 90 (LT Christian Darrisaw is at 95.8, QB Herndon Hooker is at 90.9, and Khalil Herbert is at 90.1). They have 2 other offensive starters above 80. Among these 9 players are 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman. Their tackles are excellent and the matchup with our ends should be interesting.
Even if Herbert and Mitchell (the TE at 74.3) miss the game due to injury, VT is very formidable on offense.
We might win. We might score a lot of points. But, their offensive line will be a factor and they will move the ball on our D They will exploit our LBs and we will have a difficult time getting pressure without blitzing, which is often very predictable from Baker.
We tend think that Miami has a very dynamic offense. Yet, Miami has just two offensive players who receive grades of 70+ by PFF. King's grade is a 91.6 and Mike Harley is at 73.3. That's it.
By contrast, VT has nine players that score above 70 including 3 players above 90 (LT Christian Darrisaw is at 95.8, QB Herndon Hooker is at 90.9, and Khalil Herbert is at 90.1). They have 2 other offensive starters above 80. Among these 9 players are 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman. Their tackles are excellent and the matchup with our ends should be interesting.
Even if Herbert and Mitchell (the TE at 74.3) miss the game due to injury, VT is very formidable on offense.
We might win. We might score a lot of points. But, their offensive line will be a factor and they will move the ball on our D They will exploit our LBs and we will have a difficult time getting pressure without blitzing, which is often very predictable from Baker.
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Listen man - I’m as analytical a guy as they come. But there’s one thing these metrics can’t measure - it’s the size of a mans heart!! And we have some lions on our team. Like I said, we are going to play with a fire lit under our *** especially on defense to prove we are a legit team.
we are going to treat VA Tech’s Hooker like his name suggests - we are beating these ******* turkeys up big time. Thanksgiving dinner with gravy and stuffing.
k9cane
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In my view this has to be another 40-plus game for the offense for Miami to win...
D
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I am not getting hyped for a Miami game. Not going to.
However, Hooker cant throw the ball on a consistent basis and the offense isnt made to let him throw all the time.
At least Dalton Keene got drafted, so his *** wont score 3 TDs on us again...
However, Hooker cant throw the ball on a consistent basis and the offense isnt made to let him throw all the time.
At least Dalton Keene got drafted, so his *** wont score 3 TDs on us again...
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No you literally said "you mean one year" when there were in fact 2 years. So your statement is false. Nice try though.
College Football Betting: Early look at CFB Week 11 based on PFF's predictive models | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF
Using PFF's prediction algorithms as a guide, PFF's Ben Brown takes a closer look at the best games to target in Week 11 of the college football season.
MIAMI HURRICANES @ VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
The Hokies let a winnable game slip away as 17-point home favorites last week. The optics from Week 10 make this a perplexing line to start the week, with these teams seemingly heading in opposite directions after their latest performances.
However, not everything was negative for the Hokies, as their offense has finally found its rhythm with QB Hendon Hooker back. Virginia Tech is third in our opponent-adjusted offensive grades, with the Hurricanes eighth in the ACC. Virginia Tech has consistently moved the ball since Hooker’s return in Week 6 — their EPA per pass play mark is at the same level as Miami‘s while their EPA per rush attempt ranks first in the ACC.
The betting market has been one-sided early in the week, with 82% of the cash and 80% of the tickets on the Hurricanes. This hasn’t caused an adjustment to the early-week spread, as the opening -2 has held throughout the week.
Typically, when something feels off in the betting market, there is a reason for it. The public will quickly look at this line and assume the Hurricanes should be favored, given their recent performance and overall ranking. They are 15th in our Elo rankings, so it is possible that we are lower on them than the market. It is also possible that our opponent-adjusted grades are undervaluing the Hurricanes' offense, but that would indicate their defense is overvalued.
This looks like an ideal spot to buy low on the Hokies while also subsequently selling high on the Hurricanes, given the recent play of Hendon Hooker. This makes for the perfect opportunity to fade the market's recency bias, with a bounce-back game for the Hokies expected by our predictive models.
Pick: Virginia Tech -2
It's only me, the legend @The Franchise and the sharp analytics community who are concerned. The homers and square bettors are confident as ever. We'll see how it goes.
You seemed to miss that my asking "you mean one year?" was meant as a way to allow you to save face and salvage some dignity after making such a f#cking retarded and easily debunked claim that "Fuente has owned Diaz/Baker for years." I didn't realize you are one of those "mistakes were made on both sides" assh0les who can't just man up and admit, "Yup I was wrong."
My question wasn't meant to be sarcastic (although for whatever reason you seem to have thought it was)- the only way your statement could have been remotely accurate would have been to limit the scope to one year when Diaz/Baker were actually on the same staff. Even if you add 2016, then Fuente has a win, loss, loss, win. Not even a board troll would post something so stupid as two wins and two losses establishes Fuente has owned Diaz/Baker for years.
Since it's becoming clear to me that you aren't too bright, I'll break it down for you in simpler terms.
Fuente vs Diaz (2016, 2017, 2018): Diaz 2, Fuente 1. Diaz has owned Fuente
Fuente vs Diaz or Baker (2016-2019) Fuente 2, Diaz/Baker 2 Even split, neither has owned the other
Fuente vs Baker (2019) Fuente 1, Baker 0. Fuente owns Baker
Still don't get it? The only scenario that could have made your initial statement not look objectively idiotic would be to limit it to one year, which is why I asked if that is what you intended to do or if maybe you were mixing up VT with another team (people make silly mistakes sometimes, I was trying to gently spare you some embarrassment). I tried to be a nice guy and help you- I really did. Seems you are either too dimwitted, hardheaded, or both to accept that help. So go ahead and tell me "nice try" again if you want me to keep busting you up.
All that rest of the betting stuff? Fan-f#cking-tastic. I'll stand by my analysis that Hendon Hooker is a ****ty passer and if Miami forces him to throw, we win. Hokies are 1-3 again P5 teams when Hooker passes for OVER 200 yards. Over the last two years he averages 14 passes a game, averaged 140 passing ypg last year and 170 ypg this year. He doesn't like to throw it because he's not good at it. Wake showed how to do it. If you keep him in the pocket and make him pass, he's an INT machine. And just to close the circle and bring it back to the original point- if Diaz is calling the defense this week, then he's owned Fuente over the years and Miami shouldn't have any problems shutting VT down.
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And yet with all those fancy numbers, they are one game over .500. It's a telltale sign that a team is underachieving relative to their talent level or they are a one trick pony. That high scoring game 45 point loss against UNC? Only 236 passing yards from Hooker. 42 points against Louisville? 183 passing yards. 40 points on BC? 111 passing yards. And it's not just Hooker, when Burmeister was QB he also rarely passed. They have no balance whatsoever. #4 rushing offense, #100 passing offense. Miami has the #58 rushing offense and #35 passing offense. If they want to shut down the run, great. King will slice them up. That's what all the teams since Clemson have tried and failed. If they play soft to stop the pass, well that's too easy. Go 4 or 5 wide to spread them out and King will run for 150 yards. If I'm Fuente, I'd try to split the difference and just run blitz the entire game. Make King get rid of the ball quickly before he can run. If Enos was the OC, that would be the end of Miami because that slow-*** PA would get King killed. Lashlee is smart enough to counter that with rolling the pocket and hot routes. If Jordan and Mallory are both playing, VT is toast. Also, if VT will blitz like I think they will, it would be a good time to try some Wildcat. If the QB/RB hits the hole fast enough and avoids the blitz, he's got 6 points.
AlexCane
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But their best effort will still lead to yards and points. VT can move the ball. Not an electric offense, but they can grind you out in small chunks.
If we win, I see a high scoring game, 47-34 or so. I think VT will score. They're 24th in the country in YPG and 16th in first downs. I don't see a low scoring game. In my ideal world, we jump out ahead of them and force them to throw the ball. That's where the game can elude VT's style but if it's tight, we're playing into their style.
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I have no hopes of us playing lights out on defense, but stifling them more than we did NC State is a definite possibility.
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Gables Cane
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In my view, our defense will probably get gashed even if Herbert and Williams don't play. VT's tackles will set the edge and they will have success running wide given our slow-footed LBs. Their backup TE and WRs (Turner is rated higher than any of our WRs) will find cushion because we will often play soft zone. The reason we will play that soft zone is because Baker is probably terrified of Hooker's ability to run (valid concern as our CBs will likely be chasing WRs across the field if we play man-to-man with their backs turned away from the QB...it's the only time I believe we should mix in zone concepts with this D). Fu will also take advantage of Baker's propensity to blitz after getting frustrated that the front 4 isn't creating pressure and exploit the middle of the field.
Our defense will be challenged by the Hokie offense. They have a history of bouncing back strong under Fu after suffering an embarrassing loss. On the other hand, our offense should also feast on the Hokie D.
We should win the game if Herbert is out but to think the VT offense will not have success....well then people aren't paying attention. If Herbert plays, however, it is a tossup.
PFF grades are judged by winning your play. They played a team with lesser talent at almost every position. So they should have higher scores.
And they lost at home anyway.
Hoping that loss was demoralizing for them. Now they know they aren't that good, and aren't making any noise in the ACC this year.
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He played poorly against Wake. King's had a couple off games this year. Trevor Lawrence had a bad game or two. Everyone does.
You put way too much spin on stats. I've seen every VT game this year, and Hooker's a very good QB. He was good last year too. They run more than they throw, but that's because they run so well. They're absolutely NOTHING like GT under Johnson. Johnson tricked teams with an occasional pass. VT throws the ball in a designed passing game that isn't just verticals off play action after running the bone 15 straight plays.
Hooker will be a problem for us just like he was last year, but he's better this year. We don't defend the pass very well, and he won't have to be pinpoint accurate to expose us. Burmeister is NOWHERE NEAR the passer Hooker is. Not even in the same league. They ran with him because they had no other option. Hooker gives them a legit option in the throw game.
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Where is this narrative coming from that Hooker can't throw the ball consistently?
Gables Cane
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The scores I posted were based on the season (minimum 30 snaps), not solely based on the Liberty game.
D
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From the fact that he cant, otherwise they would let him do it.
HighSeas
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Still have to travel and have your routine disrupted. Can argue Miami's 3 worst performances this season were the 3 road games. So if you're banking on the team playing their A game I don't think it's a given. Miami can't afford another game where Baker gets badly outschemed, Phillips gets stuck on blocks and the corners don't make any plays at the catch point.
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