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Would you take this deal? (Remainder of season)

LuCane said:
Asked this off the board and got some interesting answers and rationales.

You're told you can sign on the dotted line right now for either:

1. 2-1 finish with a loss to WF, but guaranteed wins against UNC and GT

2. A chance to go 3-0 for remainder of season.

Which option do you choose?
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2.
 
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If king is guaranteed to play the final three games (hypothetical Covid) I’m taking option 2. He gives us a chance to be in and win every game against any team in the country outside of Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio state.
 
Option 2. I’d want an opportunity to earn a 10-1 record. Followed a major bowl game. Playing UF in Orange Bowl would be a great opportunity, and I admit being wary of falling flat and getting boatraced by the Gaytors. An upset win over UF could give Manny tremendous mojo at the end of the recruiting cycle.
 
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LuCane said:
For the record, I go against the probabilities and pick a chance at 3-0 (and whatever that risk entails). My reasoning off the board was that the program NEEDS to find its ******* soul. You find that by playing GT first and redeeming last year. Then playing up at WF where refs will likely try to **** us and people will believe their offense will torch our defense. But, coming up a W by any means necessary. Then, yeah UNC has a ton of skill position talent. F it. Their defense has craters in it.

I realize the probabilities of winning all 3 games. I realize what the analytics would probably say. I say there's something to giving an inexperienced coaching staff and a lot of young, untested players all the chances to risk it for the max prize. Anyway, the point of the hypo was discussion and seeing how people really felt about the program.

(To be clear to some, this is a message board. This is a hypo for discussion. If you're on the team or in the program and in here talking about playing one game at a time, please head over to the film room)
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That’s the emotion I was talking about.

GT has had a rea;ly tough schedule. UNC is having a good year. Wake has played solidly. We’re all within a zone on comparable opponent scoring. This fan base consistently overrates our team and confuses luck with destiny. Vegas had us an underdog to VT. If the home team is worth 3 pts maybe we would have been a very slight favorite on a neutral foeld. We’ll be slight favorites vs. UNC and GT because we’re home, and probably a slight favorite at Wake though no game will look like an easy win. If we have a 60% chance of winning each, that translates to a 22% chance of winning all 3. That’s the math people should consider. If our real chance of winning is 55% each game, our chance of winning all 3 is just over 15%. That’s your upside in this scenario, balanced against having an almost 10% chance of going 0-3 (if 55% if the right win probability), and a higher % chance of being 1-2. And even of being 2-1 but losing to a team we’d rather not lose to for recruiting purposes. IMO, tje rational math is clear, at least if the reward we are aiming at is future-state oriented and not just this season - that is the real embedded question.

We have covid, injuries, reversion to the mean, loss of luck, etc. Just read the threads on this board to lnow how opponents will pick us apart - we see the same issues ourselves.

Anyhow, I do not think our problem is ‘lack of a soul’ in the sense it’s some thing we can magically regrow. I think we need better talent, better cosches, and better culture, and those things take time to fix and you hsve to do it step by step for the most part. So I’d take certain progress without losing to a team we recruit against in our last 3 games. I don’t think given class size and where we are at that going 3-0 vs. 2-1 has a massive difference on our recruiting class or momentum for ‘22. I think 1-2 would potentially hurt them, however.
 
LuCane said:
Asked this off the board and got some interesting answers and rationales.

You're told you can sign on the dotted line right now for either:

1. 2-1 finish with a loss to WF, but guaranteed wins against UNC and GT

2. A chance to go 3-0 for remainder of season.

Which option do you choose?
Click to expand...
or...

3. You take said contract rip it up, take the pen and stuff it in said shirt pocket (add a condescending Sparky to it) and tell whoever, "Canes will earn what they earn on their own, they will stand on their own two feet, not cower and snivel like betas."

Just a thought.
 
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We can beat every team left on our schedule.

Our Defense just needs to make a few stops in key situations just like it did the last couple of weeks.
 
Colombie said:
We can beat every team left on our schedule.

Our Defense just needs to make a few stops in key situations just like it did the last couple of weeks.
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Saying we can doesn’t mean much. The question is whether we will.

We’ve been close and fotunate against VA, NCST and VT. Even v Pitt, it was a close game late 3rd quarter before we got out last td.

We thought beating Louisville meant something, but everyone has beaten them this year.

FSU was a rivalry game that broke open.

We’ve been carried by a great qb and kicking game. Nice things for sure.
 
Ethnicsands said:
Saying we can doesn’t mean much. The question is whether we will.

We’ve been close and fotunate against VA, NCST and VT. Even v Pitt, it was a close game late 3rd quarter before we got out last td.

We thought beating Louisville meant something, but everyone has beaten them this year.

FSU was a rivalry game that broke open.

We’ve been carried by a great qb and kicking game. Nice things for sure.
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"Can" is good enough for me in a crazy year of COVID. Nothing is ever guaranteed... ...but especially in a year such as this one.

I think we can do it. And as long as King is our QB playing well AND the Defense plays lights out in the 4th quarter of games I believe we will do it.
 
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LuCane said:
For the record, I go against the probabilities and pick a chance at 3-0 (and whatever that risk entails). My reasoning off the board was that the program NEEDS to find its ******* soul.
Click to expand...

That's right. The team needs to find it's soul not sell it. Give Mephistopheles the middle finger on this deal. 🖕
 
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Ethnicsands said:
That’s the emotion I was talking about.

GT has had a rea;ly tough schedule. UNC is having a good year. Wake has played solidly. We’re all within a zone on comparable opponent scoring. This fan base consistently overrates our team and confuses luck with destiny. Vegas had us an underdog to VT. If the home team is worth 3 pts maybe we would have been a very slight favorite on a neutral foeld. We’ll be slight favorites vs. UNC and GT because we’re home, and probably a slight favorite at Wake though no game will look like an easy win. If we have a 60% chance of winning each, that translates to a 22% chance of winning all 3. That’s the math people should consider. If our real chance of winning is 55% each game, our chance of winning all 3 is just over 15%. That’s your upside in this scenario, balanced against having an almost 10% chance of going 0-3 (if 55% if the right win probability), and a higher % chance of being 1-2. And even of being 2-1 but losing to a team we’d rather not lose to for recruiting purposes. IMO, tje rational math is clear, at least if the reward we are aiming at is future-state oriented and not just this season - that is the real embedded question.

We have covid, injuries, reversion to the mean, loss of luck, etc. Just read the threads on this board to lnow how opponents will pick us apart - we see the same issues ourselves.

Anyhow, I do not think our problem is ‘lack of a soul’ in the sense it’s some thing we can magically regrow. I think we need better talent, better cosches, and better culture, and those things take time to fix and you hsve to do it step by step for the most part. So I’d take certain progress without losing to a team we recruit against in our last 3 games. I don’t think given class size and where we are at that going 3-0 vs. 2-1 has a massive difference on our recruiting class or momentum for ‘22. I think 1-2 would potentially hurt them, however.
Click to expand...
Right. I’m aware of the Math as I’ve noted a few times throughout the thread. The part we possibly diverge on is how I define ‘soul.’ It’s not a magic thing. It’s something I’d consider embedded in your comment of needing better players, coaches, and culture. In the spirit of the hypo, that happens by taking on challenges.

You know I appreciate the analysis and discussion, though. It’s similar to what I’ve had off the board and why I brought the question on here. Thought it’d be interesting to record.
 
TemplarCane said:
Option 2. I’d want an opportunity to earn a 10-1 record. Followed a major bowl game. Playing UF in Orange Bowl would be a great opportunity, and I admit being wary of falling flat and getting boatraced by the Gaytors. An upset win over UF could give Manny tremendous mojo at the end of the recruiting cycle.
Click to expand...

Miami will never fall flat when it's time to play Florida. Unless there is a MAJOR talent gap.. Until I see Florida play with or beat Alabama they are still in our our tier (tier2) of college football championship hopefulls
 
LuCane said:
Right. I’m aware of the Math as I’ve noted a few times throughout the thread. The part we possibly diverge on is how I define ‘soul.’ It’s not a magic thing. It’s something I’d consider embedded in your comment of needing better players, coaches, and culture. In the spirit of the hypo, that happens by taking on challenges.

You know I appreciate the analysis and discussion, though. It’s similar to what I’ve had off the board and why I brought the question on here. Thought it’d be interesting to record.
Click to expand...
Understood. Just trying to bring the discussion you sought.

My bottom line is there is a more likely than not chance of a worse outcome than option 1, and a high price to risk. If we were playing for here and now, different discussion. I’m focused on getting where we want to go and that will take a couple years of recruiting.

If you told me 3-0 is massively better than 2-1 for next year’s recruiting, I might be swayed. Experience tells me that’s not that likely.
 
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