Would you take this deal? (Remainder of season)

[Empirical Cane]

Right. I’m aware of the Math as I’ve noted a few times throughout the thread. The part we possibly diverge on is how I define ‘soul.’ It’s not a magic thing. It’s something I’d consider embedded in your comment of needing better players, coaches, and culture. In the spirit of the hypo, that happens by taking on challenges.

You know I appreciate the analysis and discussion, though. It’s similar to what I’ve had off the board and why I brought the question on here. Thought it’d be interesting to record.

Do you feel there is a measurable difference in "program momentum" by finishing out 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, or 3-0?

Ehhh...

Obviously nobody wants to see a collapse at 0-3, but I would offer Miami's biggest problem in forever are the repeated failures during bowl season.

Let's face it, Miami's non-natty game bowl record is abysmal and embarrassing.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Do you feel there is a measurable difference in "program momentum" by finishing out 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, or 3-0?

Ehhh...

Obviously nobody wants to see a collapse at 0-3, but I would offer Miami's biggest problem in forever are the repeated failures during bowl season.

Let's face it, Miami's non-natty game bowl record is abysmal and embarrassing.

We’ve won one bowl game since 2006. One. It was the Russell Athletic Bowl.

 

[Empirical Cane]

We’ve won one bowl game since 2006. One. It was the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Preach E.

F[]cking PREACH!!!!!!

This has been a HUGE problem, I dare say a program killing problem.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Preach E.

F[]cking PREACH!!!!!!

This has been a HUGE problem, I dare say a program killing problem.

It’s a symptom, imo, not the disease.

No heart, no culture. No soul, as lu would say.

We do have to get back to winning bowl games. But we have to do a bunch of things to sustainably get back there.

Also, we should stop celebrating marginal nfl kids or early departures (other than the rare kid for whom it’s an obvious choice).

 

[Torch_Da1]

Option 2, King makes this decision easy. Everyone choosing option 1 has battered wife syndrome from relationships with ****ty qbs and poor coaching. I completely understand and respect your medical condition from being a victim of abuse for the better part of the last 20 years. A quality Qb is the ultimate eraser. It would be criminal to deny that young man the opportunity to compete, he has earned that right. We may not win out but I will **** sure enjoy watching him ball out!

 

[NorthEastCane]

Well there is nothing like common sense. We will beat GT and WF. UNC has to much fire power for us to beat them. I will take a 9-2 and a bowl game without any hesitation. 9-2 will keep the recruiting class

If 9-2 keeps the class together, why choose option 1. The odds of losing 2 of 3 or all 3 (two of which are at home) are remote.

I haven't given my answer or preference. I'm posing the question because I expected one answer and was surprised by the back and forth. Read through the responses and you'll see some of the rationales for those "taking" the 9-2 option. Personally, I'd like to know Manny Diaz's answer to the question.

Option 1 is the beta choice; option 2 the alpha. Which one Manny would choose would tell us a lot.

 

[LuCane]

Understood. Just trying to bring the discussion you sought.

If you told me 3-0 is massively better than 2-1 for next year’s recruiting, I might be swayed. Experience tells me that’s not that likely.

That's part of the discussion I'm not sure I've had anywhere. Is 1-2 that different than 2-1? Would we lose Williams or Taylor or a portion of our recruiting class (which is absolutely necessary to where we all wanna go, btw)? Would 3-0 potentially land us a hyped up kid we wouldn't otherwise land?

 

[section9]

Finish undefeated: run absolute Train on the Domers in the Orange Bowl.

 

[LuCane]

Finish undefeated: run absolute Train on the Domers in the Orange Bowl.

However unlikely that outcome may be (or even just the chance it's an opportunity), it'd make a difference in program perception. ****, perhaps actual internal program confidence. An 11-1 season with a major bowl game win against ND? That sells.

I think we're still a program trying to figure itself out. We need the challenges. If we **** them up, well, then we are what we are.

 

[MovingZen]

I'll take a chance at going 3-0 because I'm not a giant *****. Nobody on the remainder of our schedule is playing defense right now so I like our chances.

 

[LuCane]

Do you feel there is a measurable difference in "program momentum" by finishing out 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, or 3-0?

Ehhh...

Obviously nobody wants to see a collapse at 0-3, but I would offer Miami's biggest problem in forever are the repeated failures during bowl season.

Let's face it, Miami's non-natty game bowl record is abysmal and embarrassing.

It's a good question. I don't know the answer. I posed it above to @Ethnicsands. Maybe stupidly, but for the purposes of the discussion I take the 0-3 option off the table. So the question becomes "what are the differences between 1-2, 2-1, 3-0?" The bowl implication you and Ethnic have mentioned also matters.

 

[NorthEastCane]

Finish undefeated: run absolute Train on the Domers in the Orange Bowl.

We're not going to see them unless they lose twice in the regular season and we lose to Clemson in the championship game. If they lose only once and we win the tie breaker, I can't see the Orange Bowl bringing in two ACC teams.

 

[MovingZen]

Now that I've read the thread I don't care about the math. It's 11 vs 11 on the field and I'll take my guys over the 11 our schedule is gonna line up. Covid could change things but they could change things for the other teams also. Line em up and play.. lets go!

 

[Ethnicsands]

That's part of the discussion I'm not sure I've had anywhere. Is 1-2 that different than 2-1? Would we lose Williams or Taylor or a portion of our recruiting class (which is absolutely necessary to where we all wanna go, btw)? Would 3-0 potentially land us a hyped up kid we wouldn't otherwise land?

My instinct is 1-2 is a lot different than 2-1. It’s the deflator vs okay, good year, progress.

I do think 3-0 increases the chance of a surprise outlier, but I’m also mindful we don’t have room for more than 1 of those, so I’d put a lot of weight on making sure we hold the kids we’ve got, which is why risk of 1-2 scares the heck out of me.

 

[Ethnicsands]

However unlikely that outcome may be (or even just the chance it's an opportunity), it'd make a difference in program perception. ****, perhaps actual internal program confidence. An 11-1 season with a major bowl game win against ND? That sells.

I think we're still a program trying to figure itself out. We need the challenges. If we **** them up, well, then we are what we are.

If we’re trying to rebuild, we have to manage perception carefully. Sorry to say but playing ND in a major bowl is not a good bet for this program this year. Sorry. Getting train run on us is a lot more likely than the reverse. And then we’re back to Richt era wisconsin.

I guess you have to have a clear view of what we are in order to understand how to get where we’re going. If you think we’re really close, you take the game and hope to win. If you think we’re a lucky transfer and a banana peel from being the team that lost to middle nowhere community college last year, you view it differently.

I’m not looking for hype or unsustainable image. I want to see the program built with a foundation. Talent, coaching and culture. Takes time to build, but setbacks can derail.

 

[cooks002]

What the cuck is going on?

 

[Ethnicsands]

If 9-2 keeps the class together, why choose option 1. The odds of losing 2 of 3 or all 3 (two of which are at home) are remote.

Option 1 is the beta choice; option 2 the alpha. Which one Manny would choose would tell us a lot.

It’s hot a question for manny. he’s the coach. he’s there to try to win no matter what. It’s solely a fan question. Defining it as alpha/beta just means you’re picking emotion over logic.

 

[Ethnicsands]

It's a good question. I don't know the answer. I posed it above to @Ethnicsands. Maybe stupidly, but for the purposes of the discussion I take the 0-3 option off the table. So the question becomes "what are the differences between 1-2, 2-1, 3-0?" The bowl implication you and Ethnic have mentioned also matters.

IMO, we can’t take 0-3 off the table - it’s probably a 9% chance range outcome. We’ve lived through so many late season collapses. Your hypothetical is interesting precisely because you have to value the 0-3 risk. I might actually change my response if you eliminated that in your hypo. We need to take some winnings off the table, so to speak, this season. Another late season bust and we’ll be onto the next head coach talk fast.

 

[scrantoncane]

That’s the emotion I was talking about.

GT has had a rea;ly tough schedule. UNC is having a good year. Wake has played solidly. We’re all within a zone on comparable opponent scoring. This fan base consistently overrates our team and confuses luck with destiny. Vegas had us an underdog to VT. If the home team is worth 3 pts maybe we would have been a very slight favorite on a neutral foeld. We’ll be slight favorites vs. UNC and GT because we’re home, and probably a slight favorite at Wake though no game will look like an easy win. If we have a 60% chance of winning each, that translates to a 22% chance of winning all 3. That’s the math people should consider. If our real chance of winning is 55% each game, our chance of winning all 3 is just over 15%. That’s your upside in this scenario, balanced against having an almost 10% chance of going 0-3 (if 55% if the right win probability), and a higher % chance of being 1-2. And even of being 2-1 but losing to a team we’d rather not lose to for recruiting purposes. IMO, tje rational math is clear, at least if the reward we are aiming at is future-state oriented and not just this season - that is the real embedded question.

We have covid, injuries, reversion to the mean, loss of luck, etc. Just read the threads on this board to lnow how opponents will pick us apart - we see the same issues ourselves.

Anyhow, I do not think our problem is ‘lack of a soul’ in the sense it’s some thing we can magically regrow. I think we need better talent, better cosches, and better culture, and those things take time to fix and you hsve to do it step by step for the most part. So I’d take certain progress without losing to a team we recruit against in our last 3 games. I don’t think given class size and where we are at that going 3-0 vs. 2-1 has a massive difference on our recruiting class or momentum for ‘22. I think 1-2 would potentially hurt them, however.

Per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers, updated this morning, and giving 2 points for HFA (it’s down from the normal 3 this year cause there is no crowds... in fact, 2 might be too high), we will be:

~21 point favorites over GT
~Pick ‘em at Wake
~Pick ‘em vs UNC

 

[Silver King]

I have not the time or inclination to read through these answers to a suspect question, I leave my answer to the Az St coach: