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Would you take this deal? (Remainder of season)

scrantoncane said:
Per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers, updated this morning, and giving 2 points for HFA (it’s down from the normal 3 this year cause there is no crowds... in fact, 2 might be too high), we will be:

~21 point favorites over GT
~Pick ‘em at Wake
~Pick ‘em vs UNC
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Good point on HFA this year.

I’d take GT+21 all day long. They’ve played a very tough schedule, playing Clemson and ND and UCF. They beat Louisville by more than we did. They beat FSU. BC is a solid team. Syracuse is the only real question on their outcomes.

But even if that’s right we’re only ~20% likely to win all 3. I was giving us better odds vs UNC and Wake and not as good vs GT.
 
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scrantoncane said:
Per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers, updated this morning, and giving 2 points for HFA (it’s down from the normal 3 this year cause there is no crowds... in fact, 2 might be too high), we will be:

~21 point favorites over GT
~Pick ‘em at Wake
~Pick ‘em vs UNC
Click to expand...
Per Action Network...

Miami -16.5 Gt
Miami -9.5 Wake
Miami PICK UNC

Edit: the -16.5 is accurate, but the power ratings are only updated through 11/8
 
scrantoncane said:
Per Action Network...

Miami -16.5 Gt
Miami -9.5 Wake
Miami PICK UNC

Edit: the -16.5 is accurate, but the power ratings are only updated through 11/8
Click to expand...
ESPN FPI doesn’t give a means to calculate point spread, but has UNC at 11.0 (24), Miami 10.2 (27), Wake 7.3 (31), GT -5.3 (91). FPI gives us an 18.3% chance of winning out.

FWIW, every model has UNC ranked higher than us (although it’s close).
 
Point is, when you look at the math/probabilities, @Ethnicsands is correct: guaranteed 2-1 is the correct answer, and it’s obvious.

That said, gimme option 2 and let’s ride. Maybe Howell will get Covid.
 
scrantoncane said:
ESPN FPI doesn’t give a means to calculate point spread, but has UNC at 11.0 (24), Miami 10.2 (27), Wake 7.3 (31), GT -5.3 (91). FPI gives us an 18.3% chance of winning out.

FWIW, every model has UNC ranked higher than us (although it’s close).
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Statistically, that about matches the expected probabilities discussed. Ethnic has mentioned it. I had mentioned them a few times because it was part of the discussion off the board. It's entertaining to see the reactions, though. Especially all the negative ones. Ha. For me, the point was the discussion Ethnic and a few others engaged in. Just look at @AUcane's post where he noted he went back and forth on his pick a few times. That's good stuff.

But, I'll stick with my previous reasoning and ride with option #2 as a way to see what Manny and the team do in a challenge.
 
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Well option 2 isn't giving us anything, we already have the chance to go 3-0 in our last three games, so does everyone else on planet Earth!
 
LuCane said:
Statistically, that about matches the expected probabilities discussed. Ethnic has mentioned it. I had mentioned them a few times because it was part of the discussion off the board. It's entertaining to see the reactions, though. Especially all the negative ones. Ha. For me, the point was the discussion Ethnic and a few others engaged in. Just look at @AUcane's post where he noted he went back and forth on his pick a few times. That's good stuff.

But, I'll stick with my previous reasoning and ride with option #2 as a way to see what Manny and the team do in a challenge.
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The only reason I hesitate about option 2 is our covid situation. We can’t be down that many OL and DL and expect to win out.

And this is a real life issue, not a hypothetical. We almost didn’t play yesterday. We should get by GT even with a depleted roster, but we need our dudes back for Wake and UNC. As the power ratings show - which do NOT account for covid - we are basically coin flips at full strength. We simply can’t afford to be down 13 guys. Call me a p ussy, but we are better off not playing.
 
Canenable said:
Well option 2 isn't giving us anything, we already have the chance to go 3-0 in our last three games, so does everyone else on planet Earth!
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Option 2 means you pass up option 1 and then have a chance to go 0-3 (i find this very low probability, statistically and otherwise), 1-2, etc. I think I should have worded the OP differently as it's caused some confusion for some.

Ya'll don't do "what ifs" with your friends?
 
scrantoncane said:
Per Action Network...

Miami -16.5 Gt
Miami -9.5 Wake
Miami PICK UNC

Edit: the -16.5 is accurate, but the power ratings are only updated through 11/8
Click to expand...
S&P

Miami -12 GT
Miami -14 Wake (lower on wake than most, not higher on Miami)
UNC -3 @ Miami

PSU -1 Miami on a neutral
 
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Ethnicsands said:
It’s hot a question for manny. he’s the coach. he’s there to try to win no matter what. It’s solely a fan question. Defining it as alpha/beta just means you’re picking emotion over logic.
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I was responding to LUs hypothetical about Manny's thinking.

But from a fan mindset, some may decide based on emotion. For me, I'm of the mindset that I don't like the idea off ducking an opponent. That's what we would be doing if we took a guaranteed 2-1 rather than fight for a possible 3-0. Developing a mental toughness of going out there and regardless of the opponent and setting is more important for this team than a momentary win/loss record.
 
NorthEastCane said:
I was responding to LUs hypothetical about Manny's thinking.

But from a fan mindset, some may decide based on emotion. For me, I'm of the mindset that I don't like the idea off ducking an opponent. That's what we would be doing if we took a guaranteed 2-1 rather than fight for a possible 3-0. Developing a mental toughness of going out there and regardless of the opponent and setting is more important for this team than a momentary win/loss record.
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i don’t understand your response. fun mindset doesn’t mean team mindset. either you can answer logically or you can’t. if you’re talking emotion it is what it is. the question is whether a as a fan you’d take a sure 2-1 on the terms outlined vs. anything goes.
 
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Ethnicsands said:
i don’t understand your response. fun mindset doesn’t mean team mindset. either you can answer logically or you can’t. if you’re talking emotion it is what it is. the question is whether a as a fan you’d take a sure 2-1 on the terms outlined vs. anything goes.
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It makes sense. I said some fans react emotionally. I'm not. I further stated my reasoning is based on the continued development of the team mind set rather than a win-loss record in a single season.
 
Considering the OL, WR,s and defenders we had coming back I thought 8_3 would be the best we would do. Will be happy to do better than my preseason thoughts. U
 
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NorthEastCane said:
It makes sense. I said some fans react emotionally. I'm not. I further stated my reasoning is based on the continued development of the team mind set rather than a win-loss record in a single season.
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I guess we’re talking different languages. How is the ‘team mindset’ furthered in one scenario can the other? The team is going to go out and try to win it’s games. The question is whether as a fan you think we’d be better off in scenario one or two.
 
LuCane said:
Not sure where you pulled that from? Seems you've not read any of my posts in the thread or misunderstood the hypo.
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To think about taking one, you’d have to believe there’s a more than decent chance we drop two, no?
 
LuCane said:
Option 2 means you pass up option 1 and then have a chance to go 0-3 (i find this very low probability, statistically and otherwise), 1-2, etc. I think I should have worded the OP differently as it's caused some confusion for some.

Ya'll don't do "what ifs" with your friends?
Click to expand...

Are we guaranteed that King doesn’t get COVID and miss 2 games? Or is that part of the risk?
 
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