Vegas says we beat the Orangemen by 14.5

[Canes1135]

Thought FSU and GT would be close as well. If We put it together for 4Q’s we win by 20 just don’t think we will. Looking like a 10-13point win.

 

[ajkreider]

The line is a combination of grass and the road for cuse, plus the potential for rain.

Also like the idea that for FSU, we were traveling - got beat up. Spent the week trekking to Hard Rock and preparing for a unique system. This week we practice at home. Kids sleeping in their beds. A week removed from Tally. We should be in better shape, rested, and not looking at let down psychologically.

The only worry is that this scheme seemed to be the Diaz weakness at Texas. Though, we handled it in the bowl game.

 

[Loose Cannon]

That's an insane line.

I think we win by not by that margin. Parlay Cuse with the points and the Miami money line and have yourself a nice Saturday night.

In my years of gambling I'd say this line is pretty low. Thought it would be +20 tbh.

Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?

That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.

Most of that could be about Toledo or Duke. We may win by 20, but I still think it's a silly line.

We beat Toledo by 22 and Duke by 5 times the point spread. I HOPE LIKE **** it works out like Toledo or Duke.

 

[JgDaCane]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

 

[407cane]

The line is a combination of grass and the road for cuse, plus the potential for rain.

Also like the idea that for FSU, we were traveling - got beat up. Spent the week trekking to Hard Rock and preparing for a unique system. This week we practice at home. Kids sleeping in their beds. A week removed from Tally. We should be in better shape, rested, and not looking at let down psychologically.

The only worry is that this scheme seemed to be the Diaz weakness at Texas. Though, we handled it in the bowl game.

toledo isn't far off either, same style just not as fast

having delaney and redwine back this week would be huge for substitution purposes

 

[CaneOil]

You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.

LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.

I hope you're joking. The lines don't hit the public first. Only a newbie, weekend gambler would believe that.

Been gambling for 30 years close to 10 years here in Vegas. Show me any proof that the lines are let out early for big bettors or anyone else? You can get lines for a few minute in some Casino's on Sunday night. Maybe they use that as a guideline for opening on Monday. One Casino keeps it open for quite a while on Sun night. Like I said I have sat with many professional gamblers that might bet 250k per Saturday. I've seen it, they don't go to windows and it's not for them, they are middlemen. Also, they have guys at many of the games finding out about injuries, ect. I've seen it, you will never be allowed in these area's.

I don't think they care about betting early, they bet the day of the games most of the time because they have info we can't get as easy. Wish I had met them 30 years ago, I was the best I have seen at picking. Now I still win every single year and I have been posting my betting. Posted both my games this past week even though I didn't bet them, Both won, went away for 3 day weekend. I use to do it for a living, now I don't have to so I don't really care if I make my bets.

Now it's for fun, I bet 500 on Miami against FL ST couldn't even watch the 4th quarter I knew it was going to be a nightmare so I took the dog for a walk, would have done that without the bet too. Watched it at least 5 times when it was done. Wife just told me you won when I got back.

The only reason I'm betting now is I enjoy these threads. I'd probably be more motivated if we had a winner at the end of the season. I haven't even really looked at any games yet. I just can't focus like I use too because I don't need the money, still win just not as consistent.

 

[CaneOil]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

That's a big line move, most of the time that's a good sign, I still don't like the game. Miami might blow them out, but then again their QB might keep it closer than 17. A fumble or interception and that 17 might be hard to cover. Late TD if we take starters out could kill it. They just haven't showed me they are worth 17 more than Cuse. JMO I'd love to see it though.

 

[CaneOil]

I don't know **** about sports gambling. I'm just so unused to us being favored by 2 tds over anybody is all. I mean, is anybody putting money Cuse?

Not yet they're not. Don't be surprised if it goes back to 16 or so on game day with the sharp bettors taking the points. I just wouldn't touch this game. Miami coming off two tough last second games, just to hard to call for me. 17 is a lot of points.

 

[The Owl]

You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.

LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.

Oddsmakers typically offer their opening line to a select few bettors to see which side those professional bettors will pick. Armed with that information, and factoring in home-field or home-court advantages along with weather and/or injury situations, the oddsmaker then refines the line before pushing it live for the public.

LOL you are quoting bull**** on the oddshark website. A site known for a terrible computer model and a "team" of people who couldn't hit 52.38% (break even) against -110 Pinnacle lines if their lives depended on it. They are about as sharp as a circle at oddshark. In addition, please explain to me why they would give the smart people who bet the most money the softest opening lines? You think books are afraid of public bettors betting $20.00-100.00 but not the guys laying five to seven figures with proven algorithms and math models?

 

[RealDBC13]

Coach Richt will have our guys Coached up big time, he knows they upset Clemson & he's not gonna let us take them lightly. The key to how this game goes will be how healthy we can get this week.

We get Delaney, Red & Richards back & you can kiss this thing goodbye. If we're missing a **** ton of starters it'll be a close game til late in the 4th.

Their Offense was running at a 100mph vs Clemson, they hit the ground running from the Kickoff.

I expect Malek Young to matchup with Ishmael & lock him down. Chad, JJack, Trent, DJack, McIntosh, Norton & the boys will win out, their OL won't be able handle them.

As far as Diaz, prepping for this game will be like Toledo mixed with Duke on steroids. That **** Eric Dungey is a good QB, very efficient with the ball & can run really well. Plus, their Offense is really good on 3rd downs.

They'll give us their best shot & make it close in the 1st half, then we'll make the right adjustments and shut'em down in the 2nd half.

I like Malek a lot but he needs to turn back and look at the ball. Cuse’s QB is very good and his WRs are fighters but not physically gifted. You hardly ever such much separation between Syracuse WRs and the DBs covering. The QB makes up for it by throwing dimes, very accurate.

Syracuse has no running game but for their QB. Once inside their opponents 15, Cuse has one play, their QB running it. They will have one of their starting DBs out (Scoop) and their deph is poor. Playing on the grass, humidity and the high temps will take a toll on that team. Syracuse has not won a road game since October of last year. I don’t think that we will be sweating out a win like we have been doing for the last two weeks.

 

[Pixelated bukake]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

If the line is moving our favor, wouldn't that mean that the early money was on Miami, not on Syracuse?

 

[CaneOil]

You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.

LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.

The majority of the moves off the initial openers (both offshore and here in Vegas) are arbitrage; with wiseguy bettors looking to snap up ‘off-market’ numbers in the brief period when they are available.

That use to be me a few years back, I'd be over at the Wynn waiting for them to post lines. I'd already had every line to the game estimated what it would be, then I'd bet the games I liked.But that was 16 hours a day studying, now I don't do 15 minutes a day.

 

[CaneOil]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

If the line is moving our favor, wouldn't that mean that the early money was on Miami, not on Syracuse?

Yes!

 

[kryptonite]

In my years of gambling I'd say this line is pretty low. Thought it would be +20 tbh.

Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?

That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.

Most of that could be about Toledo or Duke. We may win by 20, but I still think it's a silly line.

We beat Toledo by 22 and Duke by 5 times the point spread. I HOPE LIKE **** it works out like Toledo or Duke.

I expect to roll, but I expected to roll on GT as well. Just saying we haven't been pulling away from teams lately, so I think the line is optimistic. Remember that the line isn't about what we think, it's about what Vagas thinks and they don't give a sht who wins they're just in it for the money. To me, a 20+ point line would say that they think Syracuse will have a huge hangover and fall apart and that their win last week was a complete fluke or that we've had our heads up our asses and have now removed them.

You guys may be right, one close game was fsu and the other we gave up a silly TD and left a ton of points on the field.

 

[Canedog]

Syracuse's performance against Clemson makes this game hard to predict. Not a game I would bet on.

 

[CaneOil]

That's an insane line.

I think we win by not by that margin. Parlay Cuse with the points and the Miami money line and have yourself a nice Saturday night.

In my years of gambling I'd say this line is pretty low. Thought it would be +20 tbh.

Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?

That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.

Most of that could be about Toledo or Duke. We may win by 20, but I still think it's a silly line.

This is about the time they start jacking up the lines for top teams and good teams against bad teams. Remember almost 53% of the time the underdog covers. One way Vegas does well, most people bet favorites and they know it.

 

[CaneOil]

Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?

That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.

Most of that could be about Toledo or Duke. We may win by 20, but I still think it's a silly line.

We beat Toledo by 22 and Duke by 5 times the point spread. I HOPE LIKE **** it works out like Toledo or Duke.

I expect to roll, but I expected to roll on GT as well. Just saying we haven't been pulling away from teams lately, so I think the line is optimistic. Remember that the line isn't about what we think, it's about what Vagas thinks and they don't give a sht who wins they're just in it for the money. To me, a 20+ point line would say that they think Syracuse will have a huge hangover and fall apart and that their win last week was a complete fluke or that we've had our heads up our asses and have now removed them.

You guys may be right, one close game was fsu and the other we gave up a silly TD and left a ton of points on the field.

I said the GT game was going to be close and said that in another thread. It was a sucker bet, I hate playing GT more than every other team. Next year will be another real tough one with them. Once we get more faster athletes they are toast. Speed on D kills that type of crazy *** offense.

 

[DaU83]

i feel like we match up well against syracuse.. i understand they beat "clemson" but i don't think clemson is that big of a threat without their QB.

 

[JgDaCane]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

If the line is moving our favor, wouldn't that mean that the early money was on Miami, not on Syracuse?

Reverse line movment.

 

[JgDaCane]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

If the line is moving our favor, wouldn't that mean that the early money was on Miami, not on Syracuse?

Yes!

Not always. That's how it was 20 years ago.