Vegas says we beat the Orangemen by 14.5

[TheU1984]

The name change from Orangemen to Orange had nothing to do with Native Americans. It had to do with the feminists.

 

[simplycanes]

public on cuse thusfar & line up to 17 some places with word were getting some guys back. I think were gonna blow them out.

That's a big line move, most of the time that's a good sign, I still don't like the game. Miami might blow them out, but then again their QB might keep it closer than 17. A fumble or interception and that 17 might be hard to cover. Late TD if we take starters out could kill it. They just haven't showed me they are worth 17 more than Cuse. JMO I'd love to see it though.

No offense intended, but this analysis applies to practically all football games,.

 

[ajkreider]

This is weird. I was certain that spread was gonna fall to around 12 or so.

You don't know much about sports gambling then. LOL Oh, and one more thing. I expect the current line to move another point by Saturday. Say Miami... - 17 or - 17 1/2.

It's already at 17 at many casino's.

I heard on a podcast that line has moved to the -17 despite only 37% of individuals betting on Miami. Big money is on us blowing the doors off it seems.

I'd guess a big chunk of that 63% are money line bets for the orange to win outright. That may be a decent bet, given the payouts. Betting a 10-1 shot at the track can be a good bet, despite not expecting the horse to win.

 

[edge3241]

Reverse line movment.

You would need to produce some evidence to support that contention.

Money on cuse. Line moves our way. Pretty simple concept. Happens weekly with other games.

I understand the concept. However, reverse betting doesn't apply to very game. In fact some bettors consider the concept a myth. I am simply asking what evidence you have to support the contention that the money is on Syracuse (which would require the percentage of bets be on Miami), and that this game is reflective of reverse betting.

Well actually the % means nothing. Money wagered is what's important. A number in which we can't get. So there's no point in arguing. My educated guess is the money is on Cuse based on public perception of both teams.

Check out RJ Bell's site. They give you pick percentage and cash percentage on each game. https://pregame.com/game-center

 

[itsacanething]

The name change from Orangemen to Orange had nothing to do with Native Americans. It had to do with the feminists.

i am going to have to respectfully disagree. that is exactly the reason they changed. and the womens' teams were actually referred to as orangewomen.

 

[TheU1984]

The name change from Orangemen to Orange had nothing to do with Native Americans. It had to do with the feminists.

i am going to have to respectfully disagree. that is exactly the reason they changed. and the womens' teams were actually referred to as orangewomen.

Fair enough. Although, the mere distinction between Orangemen and Orangewomen is a no-no to a feminist. ****, they want to get rid of Mr and Mrs to be replaced with a global prefix.

 

[Fightinibis]

Guessing that gets down to -10.

Yeah, not to forget we also opened up against GT -10.5. Free $$$ if I ever bet UM, just never will. Made a lot of other people money though.

UM

 

[TheU1984]

Guessing that gets down to -10.

Yeah, not to forget we also opened up against GT -10.5. Free $$$ if I ever bet UM, just never will. Made a lot of other people money though.

UM

A 6 point line movement between now and the game? Huh? Maybe if Rosier goes missing.

 

[Tetragrammaton Cane]

This may help some of you understand Vegas’ motivation when it comes to betting and odds and why the odds can swing so dramatically.

According to Rood, approximately 95% of the bets MGM has received so far have been on McGregor.

"Currently we have nearly 6,400 tickets written to Conor McGregor and about 280 tickets written on Mayweather," Rood told ESPN.

Likewise, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, 95% of the bets they have received have also been on McGregor.


The reason most people are betting on McGregor is simple — there is little money to win betting on Mayweather.

According to Rood, some sportsbooks opened up with Mayweather as a -3000 favorite. At that price, a gambler would have to wager $3,000 just to win $100 or $30,000 to win $1,000. While many view Mayweather as a sure thing, that is still a lot of money to risk for little reward.

This creates a problem for the sportsbooks. With so many people betting on McGregor, they are at risk of losing a lot of money if he actually pulls off the upset. One estimate says the sportsbooks in Vegas would lose $48 million collectively if Mayweather loses.

To counter this, the sportsbooks are forced to keep the odds on Mayweather as low as possible in order to entice at least some bets on the favorite.

With just three days to go until the fight, Mayweather's odds are down to -550 to win. Now if somebody wanted to win $100, they would have to bet $550. If they wanted to win $1,000, they would have to risk $5,500.

The big winners here are the gamblers who were patient and waited to bet on Mayweather. While a bet on Mayweather still has a small reward, the risk is now much lower.

During a recent appearance on Cousin Sal's "Against All Odds" podcast, ESPN boxing analyst Max Kellerman said "Mayweather would literally be a tremendous value at 50-to-1." Instead, gamblers are getting him at 5.5-to-1.

"We're looking for a little bit of Mayweather money to balance this out because we have a lot of liability on Conor," Rood said. "I have a bet that a guy wants to come out and lay $3 million on Mayweather, which wins close to $500,000."

But there is also a risk here for those who are still waiting to bet on Mayweather. That is, they don't want to wait too long.

According to Rood, 90% of the money being wagered comes in the last 36 hours before a fight. If a lot of that money goes on Mayweather to win — especially from the professional gamblers who typically bet much larger sums of money — the odds could reverse and start to swing higher again.

 

[USNAVYCANE]

Up to 18.5 now

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

 

[prinmemo]

Up to 18.5 now

Could it be that it will be 84 degrees at kick off?

 

[BeastMode]

Up to 18.5 now

Could it be that it will be 84 degrees at kick off?

Rain. We can run it down their throats all game and they will give up by the 3rd quarter.

 

[The Owl]

You would need to produce some evidence to support that contention.

Money on cuse. Line moves our way. Pretty simple concept. Happens weekly with other games.

I understand the concept. However, reverse betting doesn't apply to very game. In fact some bettors consider the concept a myth. I am simply asking what evidence you have to support the contention that the money is on Syracuse (which would require the percentage of bets be on Miami), and that this game is reflective of reverse betting.

Well actually the % means nothing. Money wagered is what's important. A number in which we can't get. So there's no point in arguing. My educated guess is the money is on Cuse based on public perception of both teams.

Check out RJ Bell's site. They give you pick percentage and cash percentage on each game. https://pregame.com/game-center

No offense, RJ Bell is a scammer. Owns a site that promotes fraud touts. see article: https://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574

If those bet % and money % numbers in the "game center" would give you anything of actual value why would you be able to see it for free? Furthermore, why would books just hand that information out if it somehow could be used to hurt them financially? Also, which books are those numbers from? I wouldn't trust any of those numbers. Regardless, ticket count % is practically useless.

 

[The Franchise]

If that **** is up to 18.5 they're desperate to get some money on Syracuse.

 

[CaneOil]

If that **** is up to 18.5 they're desperate to get some money on Syracuse.

It's not yet in Vegas, not sure where that line came from.

 

[USNAVYCANE]

Up to 18.5 now

My bad it’s 17.5 not 18.5

 

[USNAVYCANE]

If that **** is up to 18.5 they're desperate to get some money on Syracuse.

It's not yet in Vegas, not sure where that line came from.

it’s 17.5 not 18.5 I put the wrong number http://www.sportsline.com/college-football/game-forecast/NCAAF_20171021_CUSE@MIAMI/

 

[Canedog]

I not betting dat dare game but at 17.5, ifin I was going to bet, I'd bet on da Orange and take dem dare points.

 

[CaneOil]

Been looking over this game for a half hour now, I just can't justify that 18 point line. Their QB will probably throw it 50 times and he's good. I guess the only way we win big is to shut him down big time. I do think we win but where is that 18 coming from? Kind of a mental block tonight, usually I can see it and justify it. If we cover this 18 I think we win by 30. It means we destroyed their QB all day long. Help me out here?