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Vegas says we beat the Orangemen by 14.5

Remember sitting in the west end zone at the Orange Bowl the last time we played them down here. Seems like the score was 62-0.
 
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I don't know **** about sports gambling. I'm just so unused to us being favored by 2 tds over anybody is all. I mean, is anybody putting money Cuse?
 
As some of you may know, the GT game scared the **** out of me; however, I feel good about this Cuse game. Their Defense is weak. Miami should score a minimum of 31 points Offensively. Our D will give up some points but hold them to no more than 21.
 
CaneOil said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.
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LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.
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I hope you're joking. The lines don't hit the public first. Only a newbie, weekend gambler would believe that.
 
They lost to NC State by 8, LSU by 9, and beat Clemson by 3. The head scratch-er is they also lost to M Tenn St by 7. I'm thinking the line is about right with us at home.
 
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CaneOil said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.
Click to expand...

LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.
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The majority of the moves off the initial openers (both offshore and here in Vegas) are arbitrage; with wiseguy bettors looking to snap up ‘off-market’ numbers in the brief period when they are available.
 
CaneOil said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
You guys are forgetting that the real opening line is offered to a preferred group of sharps before the public ever sees it. If it got to us at -14.5, then it's not that far off from reality.
Click to expand...

LMAO, where do you guys here this stuff? Wynn usually comes out with the lines first, If you're at the window first or dial faster than others you get that line. I've been first in that line and got the line posted early. I have been in the room with 20k +++ bettors per game and have never heard of this. I'm not sure if it would even be legal in Vegas.
Click to expand...

Oddsmakers typically offer their opening line to a select few bettors to see which side those professional bettors will pick. Armed with that information, and factoring in home-field or home-court advantages along with weather and/or injury situations, the oddsmaker then refines the line before pushing it live for the public.
 
I'll buy the 14.5 but thinking we will be down by 7 with 48 seconds to go on our own three yard line...

But, we pull it off anyway..,
 
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kryptonite said:
JgDaCane said:
nystateofmind said:
That's an insane line.

I think we win by not by that margin. Parlay Cuse with the points and the Miami money line and have yourself a nice Saturday night.
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In my years of gambling I'd say this line is pretty low. Thought it would be +20 tbh.
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Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?
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That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.
 
BigDikCane said:
well we would've beaten GT by double digits if we didn't try and get cute to start the 2nd half
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I'm okay with that call. I'm not okay with Badgely topping it and Berrios not having the awareness to fall on it and take the penalty. It was there to be had. We just missed it. 99.99% of the time that an onside kick isn't recovered, the worst thing that happens is your defense has to defend a short field. I believe someone else already pointed out that after 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, GA Tech was held to something like 56 yards on 40 plays. It was a good gamble that we lost in the worst possible way. We laid down a full house against a straight flush, but you still play the full house every time.
 
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In the last three years, the public has been right more than 62% of the time when moving the line in Miami games, which is a fairly significant number (per scoresandodds). So, hope that trend continues.
 
Loose Cannon said:
kryptonite said:
JgDaCane said:
nystateofmind said:
That's an insane line.

I think we win by not by that margin. Parlay Cuse with the points and the Miami money line and have yourself a nice Saturday night.
Click to expand...

In my years of gambling I'd say this line is pretty low. Thought it would be +20 tbh.
Click to expand...

Based on what? The way we've been crushing inferior teams or their lack of quality wins?
Click to expand...

That they lost to Middle Tennessee State? That they're an artificial turf, air conditioner offense that'll either be playing in high heat/high humidity environment, in the ****ing rain, or both? That we out match them at every position on both sides of the ball? That Robert Knowles would be their starting safety and best defensive player if he was on their team?

Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head.
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Most of that could be about Toledo or Duke. We may win by 20, but I still think it's a silly line.
 
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