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Status check on W/L expectations?

Dallas Cowboys + Jimmy Johnson...

Y1 1-15
Y2 7-9
Y3 11-5
Y4 13-3 SB Champs

Not saying Big Manny wins natty in Y4, but I suspect Miami thematically has a similar arc...
 
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jmccomber5 said:
I just keep it realistic. I listed out the games that I think we will lose.

A&M will be talented and probably better than us early. We haven’t won an out of conference power 5 game since 2017 ND and we haven’t beat an SEC team in 10 years.

We have lost 4 straight to UNC and 3-7 in our last 10. At their place with a 1st round QB

Clemson has beat us 4 straight times by a combined score of 178-30

We are 12-10 on the road in conference since 2018. NC State is well coached and will be tough to beat at their place

FSU has a significant experience advantage and one of the better teams we will see this year; at home after beating us two straight.

We have not played well at BC even when they aren’t good. I think Brohm’s offense will be playing well by November. It’s easy to think split

Sorry it’s not rainbows and sunshine. I don’t see the the depth or play makers to beat some of these teams that everyone chalks up as easy wins. Sometimes it seems like our fans don’t truly know how bad we’ve been.
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You'd have really been puked out when Schnellenberger took over.
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve posted ad nauseam to the history of HC who have made huge leaps in yr 2.

However, imma take a different angle:
Randy Shannon -
Yr 1: 5-7
Yr 2: 7-6

Al Golden -
Yr 1: 6-6
Yr 2: 7-5

Manny Diaz -
Yr 1: 6-7
Yr 2: 8-3

Now these mutha fckas r all of our favorite most hated coaches, right? Mario is supposed to be 10x the coach of these losers, correct?

So imma put it like this, if we win less than 8 games in yr 2, Imma feel a certain type of way. I backed Mario & preached patience in yr 1 b/c of what was inherited, but there’s no reason y in yr 2, w/ an alleged roster more in his image that we should be losing more than 4 games this yr, not w/ this schedule.

We play:
G5 Miami (OH)
A TAMU team in influx
GT who fired their coach
FCS BCU
G5 Temple team that went 3-9 last season.

This right here should be NO LESS than a 4-1 start, but in reality should be a 5-0 start since TAMU still have QB ? marks.

We then play:
UNC who lost their two best WRs
Clemson
UVA that went 3-9 last season AND lost their starting QB
NCSt who’s replacing Leary w/ UVA’s trash
FSU

This stretch should be 4-1 if our mentality is right, but I’ll go 3-2 to be nice.

We finish up w/:
UL who’s bringing in a whole new staff
BC who’s weak af

2-0

Our regular season should be 9-3, period.

And allow me to nix the potential change in-staff excuse; Diaz went 8-3 in yr 2 w/ a whole new Offensive Staff from yr 1, brought in a new QB from the portal, & lost his best WR in KJ Osborn.
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I think you’re going to end up angry. The stretch from UNC to FSU we will be more likely to go 1-4 than 4-1 based on rosters, where we play, and history. We are going to have to really buck some trends to accomplish this record
 
JgDaCane said:
Enough talent in win 8 imo. Just gotta see these new coordinators in action.
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Correct……but Talent is one thing….kids playing tough, disciplined football for 4 quarters on a week to week basis is quite another. Our guys have to learn “how” to win.

Will have to win several 1 possession games to hit the 8 win mark (reg. season). Possible? Yes, I think so. Likely? I’m 40/60 right now because I think at this point it is about mental toughness for our guys…next play mentality and then graduate to being consistent game to game, not getting too high or too low due to last week’s performance.
 
Rellyrell said:
We aren’t the Dallas Cowboys, & that’s not how CFB works compared to the NFL. The better example would’ve been Jimmy + Miami
8-5 Yr 1
10-2 Yr 2
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Disagree a touch here...

Jimmy's era of our Hurricanes no longer exists.

With roster impacts due to transfer portal and NIL, CFB is much closer today to NFL.

Right??
 
jmccomber5 said:
I think you’re going to end up angry. The stretch from UNC to FSU we will be more likely to go 1-4 than 4-1 based on rosters, where we play, and history. We are going to have to really buck some trends to accomplish this record
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2023 perhaps...although we truly need to see first 7...

2024/2025 is where I believe Big Manny is expecting "the leap".

Do our Canes have a 98' UCLA game this season??
 
Empirical Cane said:
Disagree a touch here...

Jimmy's era of our Hurricanes no longer exists.

With roster impacts due to transfer portal and NIL, CFB is much closer today to NFL.

Right??
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Bro, stop it.

We just saw what Elko did at Duke in yr 1
We just saw what Dykes did TCU in yr 1

Do u want me to baptize this board w/ the list of coaches that turned around teams in yr 2 this side of 2015, b/c I’m not sure this is a rabbit hole u wanna join me in, w/ it completely obliterating this notion of taking 4-5 yrs to build a contending roster.
 
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We need some numeracy up in here folks! This stuff is not linear! It is also far more influenced by randomness than many people seem to think. Our coaches and players could perform at a meaningfully better level than last year across the whole season and win 5 games or 10 games. The coaches and players level of performing sets the lower and upper bounds but random variance is playing a substantial role at determining where in the range your win total actually will fall. The randomness factor is significant for the vast majority of teams and overlooking that is how you end up with good/great coaches getting fired and mediocre/bad coaches getting extended.

Only at the extremes can you start drawing somewhat harder lines in the sand of predicting. There are bad teams are so bad that it would take an extremely unlikely amount of randomness going their way to win more than 3 games and there are good teams that are so good that it would take an extremely unlikely amount of it going against them to lose more than 3 games. The goal is to build and get to the point of being the latter kind of team. We're more than one year away from being that.
 
Anywhere from 6-6 to 9-3. I wanted to say 7-5 floor but we went 7-5 last year so i say the extreme is necessary even if it’s unlikely lol

Its hard to pin point the win’s because in cfb when u dont have a clear talent gap u can lose or be in a serious fight any given Saturday.

I think the top of our roster is pretty good with potential nfl guys, the middle is young, the bottom is trash, or not good enough i should say. Still lack a proven consistent game changer in the skill position rooms hopefully a young guy is ready or someone out of X young george Harrell breakout, we might be grinding out games and that could go either way but record aside we should look improved from last year if not then something went terribly wrong
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve posted ad nauseam to the history of HC who have made huge leaps in yr 2.

However, imma take a different angle:
Randy Shannon -
Yr 1: 5-7
Yr 2: 7-6

Al Golden -
Yr 1: 6-6
Yr 2: 7-5

Manny Diaz -
Yr 1: 6-7
Yr 2: 8-3

Now these mutha fckas r all of our favorite most hated coaches, right? Mario is supposed to be 10x the coach of these losers, correct?

So imma put it like this, if we win less than 8 games in yr 2, Imma feel a certain type of way. I backed Mario & preached patience in yr 1 b/c of what was inherited, but there’s no reason y in yr 2, w/ an alleged roster more in his image that we should be losing more than 4 games this yr, not w/ this schedule.

We play:
G5 Miami (OH)
A TAMU team in influx
GT who fired their coach
FCS BCU
G5 Temple team that went 3-9 last season.

This right here should be NO LESS than a 4-1 start, but in reality should be a 5-0 start since TAMU still have QB ? marks.

We then play:
UNC who lost their two best WRs
Clemson
UVA that went 3-9 last season AND lost their starting QB
NCSt who’s replacing Leary w/ UVA’s trash
FSU

This stretch should be 4-1 if our mentality is right, but I’ll go 3-2 to be nice.

We finish up w/:
UL who’s bringing in a whole new staff
BC who’s weak af

2-0

Our regular season should be 9-3, period.

And allow me to nix the potential change in-staff excuse; Diaz went 8-3 in yr 2 w/ a whole new Offensive Staff from yr 1, brought in a new QB from the portal, & lost his best WR in KJ Osborn.
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These dudes had higher standards for Manny Diaz than they do for Mario. Going 7-5 got Manny, Golden, Shannon, Coker fired. It doesn’t take 3 years to improve the 7 win team you inherited to 8 wins.
 
jmccomber5 said:
I just keep it realistic. I listed out the games that I think we will lose.

A&M will be talented and probably better than us early. We haven’t won an out of conference power 5 game since 2017 ND and we haven’t beat an SEC team in 10 years.

We have lost 4 straight to UNC and 3-7 in our last 10. At their place with a 1st round QB

Clemson has beat us 4 straight times by a combined score of 178-30

We are 12-10 on the road in conference since 2018. NC State is well coached and will be tough to beat at their place

FSU has a significant experience advantage and one of the better teams we will see this year; at home after beating us two straight.

We have not played well at BC even when they aren’t good. I think Brohm’s offense will be playing well by November. It’s easy to think split

Sorry it’s not rainbows and sunshine. I don’t see the the depth or play makers to beat some of these teams that everyone chalks up as easy wins. Sometimes it seems like our fans don’t truly know how bad we’ve been.
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Not really sure what past performance against non conference P5 or SEC teams has to do with this current team. There’s been a huge amount of roster and staff turnover. Isn’t the reason you hire new coaches and recruit new players because the previous group didn’t perform? Literally the only non conference, P5 team that most of this roster has played at Miami was last year’s A&M game. Most of the guys who played Alabama and MSU in 21 aren’t here anymore and pretty much everyone who played a snap against UF in 2019 is long gone. Not to mention, not a single on field coach was around for any of those games.

A&M is at home and they’re a mess on offense with no quarterback and a savior OC who flopped at an FCS school the last two years.

I’d say UNC is a tossup. We have a better team but it’s away so they get some home cooking.

For argument’s sake, we’ll call Louisville and NCST toss up games too even though we have a talent advantage over both.

We’ll also call Clemson and FSU losses even though I’m not buying FSU as some kind of juggernaut.

Every other game on the schedule is a W. Miss me with BC. They suck and even if they get better with Brohm, it’s an improvement from terrible to plain bad. If we lose to any of those teams, fire everyone.

So we split the toss-ups. Lose to both Clemson and FSU and beat the remaining three win programs on our schedule. That’s a very realistic and reasonable 8-4 record.

Significant injures aside, this team shouldn’t struggle winning more than 7 games
 
Rellyrell said:
Bro, stop it.

We just saw what Elko did at Duke in yr 1
We just saw what Dykes did TCU in yr 1

Do u want me to baptize this board w/ the list of coaches that turned around teams in yr 2 this side of 2015, b/c I’m not sure this is a rabbit hole u wanna join me in, w/ it completely obliterating this notion of taking 4-5 yrs to build a contending roster.
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Based on Big Manny's statements, I don't think he agrees with you for Miami.

Could our Canes take a big step forward in 23? Absolutely possible, but play season 100x they aren't winning a natty.

Could our Canes make measured and definitive improvement? Absolutely possible and likely given the additions of Lee and Cohen. What does that mean though?

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. For me at this time until I see more, that consists of handling/manhandling: Miami (OH), BCU, Temple, GT, UVA, and The Fighting Blake Jameses and taking 2 dub-u's from AtM, UNC, Clemson, NC St, FSU, and Louie Louie.

Given Miami's upcoming schedule, we won't know much about "true consistent goodness" until at least 14 Oct, but could know about "oh **** here we go again" by then as well.

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I wouldn’t be caught off guard if we won 6 or 7 games… but that would mean we’ve AGAIN lost to 2 or more teams that we’re more talented than. And THAT **** is discouraging AF.

I believe we could definitely win 8 games.

Our roster and investment into coaching staff says our record should look a certain way and at some point it has to mesh and we have to stop making excuses.

Outside of wins and losses… in order for us to show the improvement we’re looking for we can’t get boat raced by A&M, Clemson or FSU. Walking away 9-3 but getting bent over… pause (that pause is for you @Confidence1000 Lol), by those 3 just means we’re still getting out coached.
 
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