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Status check on W/L expectations?

DTP said:
It's very possible that NC state is the tougher matchup of the North Carolinas. The Anae/Armstrong combo was deadly at UVA in 2021 but our crappy defense held them relatively in check. They're going to throw the ball all over the place next year.
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NC State looked terrible in the spring game. Is Armstrong that good? Or was he the beneficiary of a gimmicky offense by Bronco Mendenhall in 2020 and 2021?
 
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I think the one thing the board might be undervaluing is how good our defense CAN be. We have some dudes at every level now. Guidry has done ALOT with much less. On O we'll see. I'm not a big TVD guy & I'm in wait & see mode with alot of our skill guys.
 
DTP said:
These dudes had higher standards for Manny Diaz than they do for Mario. Going 7-5 got Manny, Golden, Shannon, Coker fired. It doesn’t take 3 years to improve the 7 win team you inherited to 8 wins.
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To be fair to the people defending Mario, he has done way better recruiting than those guys did and with top 5 classes every year anyone of those dudes would get us back into the national convo and playing in important bowl games.

The talent level and size looks different than it did before
 
FuriousStyles said:
I wouldn’t be caught off guard if we won 6 or 7 games… but that would mean we’ve AGAIN lost to 2 or more teams that we’re more talented than. And THAT **** is discouraging AF.

I believe we could definitely win 8 games.

Our roster and investment into coaching staff says our record should look a certain way and at some point it has to mesh and we have to stop making excuses.

Outside of wins and losses… in order for us to show the improvement we’re looking for we can’t get boat raced by A&M, Clemson or FSU. Walking away 9-3 but getting bent over… pause (that pause is for you @Confidence1000 Lol), by those 3 just means we’re still getting out coached.
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I appreciate it! BIG PAUSE
FuriousStyles said:
I wouldn’t be caught off guard if we won 6 or 7 games… but that would mean we’ve AGAIN lost to 2 or more teams that we’re more talented than. And THAT **** is discouraging AF.

I believe we could definitely win 8 games.

Our roster and investment into coaching staff says our record should look a certain way and at some point it has to mesh and we have to stop making excuses.
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FuriousStyles said:
I wouldn’t be caught off guard if we won 6 or 7 games… but that would mean we’ve AGAIN lost to 2 or more teams that we’re more talented than. And THAT **** is discouraging AF.

I believe we could definitely win 8 games.

Our roster and investment into coaching staff says our record should look a certain way and at some point it has to mesh and we have to stop making excuses.

Outside of wins and losses… in order for us to show the improvement we’re looking for we can’t get boat raced by A&M, Clemson or FSU. Walking away 9-3 but getting bent over… pause (that pause is for you @Confidence1000 Lol), by those 3 just means we’re still getting out coached.
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I appreciate that! BIG PAUSE 😂💪🏾 Go Canes
 
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Citizen Cane said:
NC State looked terrible in the spring game. Is Armstrong that good? Or was he the beneficiary of a gimmicky offense by Bronco Mendenhall in 2020 and 2021?
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The offense they ran at Virginia is the one they're running at NCSt now. Robert Annae is the coordinator.
 
M3N said:
And then you have to factor an entire new coaching staff with 2 new coordinators.
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And that is a disadvantage how? Have we ever had a more incompetent OC? Steele absolutely mailed it in on defense. It was like watching Clemson vs West Virginia Orange Bowl week in and week out. Strong was a huge negative. That staff was completely dysfunctional.

Just the spring game demonstrated how much better coached we are in comparison to the last staff.
 
I know the OP asked specifically for W/L expectations (I am leaning towards the expectation of an 8-4 season), but I thought I'd be more specific...

Positive things I expect
[BGCOLOR=initial]Better offensive playcalling.[/BGCOLOR]
A more aggressive defensive system, better suited to our talent.
[BGCOLOR=initial]An improved offensive line.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Our WRs looking better in this system and with added talent in the room.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Better, more complete LB play.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]A team that plays and looks faster and more athletic on both sides of the ball.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Kam Kinchens making an impact both on the field and in a leadership role.[/BGCOLOR]

Positive things I am hopeful for (with reason for optimism)
A more modern, much less "bro-style" offensive philosophy.
Overall better coaching at most positions.
[BGCOLOR=initial]TVD playing more like he did most of 2021 versus how he played most of 2022.[/BGCOLOR]
LT taking the next step in his development.
Harrell being healthy and ready.
Arroyo and/or Skinner breaking out at TE.
At least one of Harvey, Kelly, and/or Bain to step up and match/exceed Mesidor at DE.
Better depth at RB resulting in a more balanced and productive unit.
Talented first and second year players being counted on for meaningful snaps and meeting that challenge.
Fewer injuries to the team as a whole (last year was a statistical anomaly, right?).

Positive things I'd like to see (but have little/no reason for optimism)
Fewer injuries to the team as a whole (was it though?).
A legitimate, playable option to emerge at QB2.
A healthy Zion ready to start Game 1, Snap 1.
Somebody else to step up at DT next to LT.
Better overall play from our CBs.
Better communication from the back of the defense and much fewer explosive plays allowed.
Somebody to make a positive impact in the return game.

Negative things I expect
Losing at least one game to an ACC team that we are more talented than on paper.
Growing pains from playing younger (albeit more talented) players more snaps.
Growing pains early in the season from replacing both coordinators and most of our on-field coaching staff.
Feeling the loss of Hedley in the battle for field position.
Injuries at RB impacting that unit's productivity and hampering playcalling.
Our lack of experienced, big-bodied DTs to be a problem.
Mario with a head-scratching timeout and/or challenge.
Our youth and/or marginal talent at CB2 and NB getting exploited at times.
Our lack of playable safety depth hurting us (at a minimum after some inevitable targeting ejections).
 
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Rellyrell said:
I’ve posted ad nauseam to the history of HC who have made huge leaps in yr 2.

However, imma take a different angle:
Randy Shannon -
Yr 1: 5-7
Yr 2: 7-6

Al Golden -
Yr 1: 6-6
Yr 2: 7-5

Manny Diaz -
Yr 1: 6-7
Yr 2: 8-3

Now these mutha fckas r all of our favorite most hated coaches, right? Mario is supposed to be 10x the coach of these losers, correct?

So imma put it like this, if we win less than 8 games in yr 2, Imma feel a certain type of way. I backed Mario & preached patience in yr 1 b/c of what was inherited, but there’s no reason y in yr 2, w/ an alleged roster more in his image that we should be losing more than 4 games this yr, not w/ this schedule.

We play:
G5 Miami (OH)
A TAMU team in influx
GT who fired their coach
FCS BCU
G5 Temple team that went 3-9 last season.

This right here should be NO LESS than a 4-1 start, but in reality should be a 5-0 start since TAMU still have QB ? marks.

We then play:
UNC who lost their two best WRs
Clemson
UVA that went 3-9 last season AND lost their starting QB
NCSt who’s replacing Leary w/ UVA’s trash
FSU

This stretch should be 4-1 if our mentality is right, but I’ll go 3-2 to be nice.

We finish up w/:
UL who’s bringing in a whole new staff
BC who’s weak af

2-0

Our regular season should be 9-3, period.

And allow me to nix the potential change in-staff excuse; Diaz went 8-3 in yr 2 w/ a whole new Offensive Staff from yr 1, brought in a new QB from the portal, & lost his best WR in KJ Osborn.
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You're right, I'm just not prepared to actually predict better than 8-5. I'm Missouri on this program.
 
6 games we should be favorites in, 3 games we should be clear underdogs in, 3 games that are (until proven otherwise) essentially toss ups is how I suspect the books will look.

games 6-10 could get ugly, or it can be what gets us talking about 10+ wins next year, probably depends on UNC who I think we will be dogs to when that line comes out.

- Tamu, fsu, clemson are losses I am penciling in, hopefully not big ones. Ceiling 9-3 if things go perfect and we stay totally healthy.
- UNC, NC St, Louisville can all beat us, I expect at least one will because we aren't established as a beat everyone you are better than on paper kind of team yet, but that is most teams frankly. More likely season 8-4 assuming great health.
- Speaking of health, we have a bunch of guys coming off injury in 2022 expected to contribute. They may be back at old form, or they may not. Mario's team had a bunch of guys get hurt the year before at Oregon also. We will lose a game because of injuries this year, hopefully it is just one game, and it is exactly what costs us one of those toss up games.

7-5 while not exciting is a move in the right direction if we don't get boat raced by clem/tamu/fsu. 8-4 is not unrealistic, but I think it depends on luck.
 
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We have been a consistently mediocre program since 2006, and remarkably so in those individual years. We have never won fewer than 5 games, and never more than 10 during that stretch. We don't go 2-10. We don't go 12-1. We are an above average program in almost every individual year, and over the entire timeframe. Quite literally, we are the Dolphins of college football.

Given the nature of Dawson's offenses, and the speed that we now have at WR and RB, I expect some of the details to change in terms of our results. Specifically, I expect 1 or 2 serious blowouts this year. There will be a couple of games where we have big time mismatches with the opponent's DL or DBs, and we just score at will. I'd be disappointed if that didn't happen at least twice, quite frankly.

On the flip, I don't see our passing game being anything near consistent.

Defensively, we have clearly improved at the LB position, and there will be improved play individually and overall. But, I expect some struggles and inconsistency. It's a room that still lacks the necessary depth and high end talent. We are going to ask Kam and JW to do too much. CB position is deeper, but I don't think anyone believes we will get consistently high level CB play. That position will be a roller coaster. Against weaker and slower OLs, our DL will be stout and cause a lot of havoc. Against a big OL with skilled technique, we will get gashed in the running game.

8-5.
 
JeddTheFisch said:
We have been a consistently mediocre program since 2006, and remarkably so in those individual years. We have never won fewer than 5 games, and never more than 10 during that stretch. We don't go 2-10. We don't go 12-1. We are an above average program in almost every individual year, and over the entire timeframe. Quite literally, we are the Dolphins of college football.

Given the nature of Dawson's offenses, and the speed that we now have at WR and RB, I expect some of the details to change in terms of our results. Specifically, I expect 1 or 2 serious blowouts this year. There will be a couple of games where we have big time mismatches with the opponent's DL or DBs, and we just score at will. I'd be disappointed if that didn't happen at least twice, quite frankly.

On the flip, I don't see our passing game being anything near consistent.

Defensively, we have clearly improved at the LB position, and there will be improved play individually and overall. But, I expect some struggles and inconsistency. It's a room that still lacks the necessary depth and high end talent. We are going to ask Kam and JW to do too much. CB position is deeper, but I don't think anyone believes we will get consistently high level CB play. That position will be a roller coaster. Against weaker and slower OLs, our DL will be stout and cause a lot of havoc. Against a big OL with skilled technique, we will get gashed in the running game.

8-5.
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Did you just call an appearance in ACCCG w/ L?
 
westcoastcanes said:
6 games we should be favorites in, 3 games we should be clear underdogs in, 3 games that are (until proven otherwise) essentially toss ups is how I suspect the books will look.

games 6-10 could get ugly, or it can be what gets us talking about 10+ wins next year, probably depends on UNC who I think we will be dogs to when that line comes out.

- Tamu, fsu, clemson are losses I am penciling in, hopefully not big ones. Ceiling 9-3 if things go perfect and we stay totally healthy.
- UNC, NC St, Louisville can all beat us, I expect at least one will because we aren't established as a beat everyone you are better than on paper kind of team yet, but that is most teams frankly. More likely season 8-4 assuming great health.
- Speaking of health, we have a bunch of guys coming off injury in 2022 expected to contribute. They may be back at old form, or they may not. Mario's team had a bunch of guys get hurt the year before at Oregon also. We will lose a game because of injuries this year, hopefully it is just one game, and it is exactly what costs us one of those toss up games.

7-5 while not exciting is a move in the right direction if we don't get boat raced by clem/tamu/fsu. 8-4 is not unrealistic, but I think it depends on luck.
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Why are you throwing in the towel against Texas A&M? They went 5-7 last year too. They only won by 8 points at home last year. They have huge question marks at quarterback and all over their offense. They've recruited well and should have a good defensive line but I have no reason to see them as "clear favorites". They aren't a good football team.
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
I know the OP asked specifically for W/L expectations (I am leaning towards the expectation of an 8-4 season), but I thought I'd be more specific...

Positive things I expect
[BGCOLOR=initial]Better offensive playcalling.[/BGCOLOR]
A more aggressive defensive system, better suited to our talent.
[BGCOLOR=initial]An improved offensive line.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Our WRs looking better in this system and with added talent in the room.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Better, more complete LB play.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]A team that plays and looks faster and more athletic on both sides of the ball.[/BGCOLOR]
[BGCOLOR=initial]Kam Kinchens making an impact both on the field and in a leadership role.[/BGCOLOR]

Positive things I am hopeful for (with reason for optimism)
A more modern, much less "bro-style" offensive philosophy.
Overall better coaching at most positions.
[BGCOLOR=initial]TVD playing more like he did most of 2021 versus how he played most of 2022.[/BGCOLOR]
LT taking the next step in his development.
Harrell being healthy and ready.
Arroyo and/or Skinner breaking out at TE.
At least one of Harvey, Kelly, and/or Bain to step up and match/exceed Mesidor at DE.
Better depth at RB resulting in a more balanced and productive unit.
Talented first and second year players being counted on for meaningful snaps and meeting that challenge.
Fewer injuries to the team as a whole (last year was a statistical anomaly, right?).

Positive things I'd like to see (but have little/no reason for optimism)
Fewer injuries to the team as a whole (was it though?).
A legitimate, playable option to emerge at QB2.
A healthy Zion ready to start Game 1, Snap 1.
Somebody else to step up at DT next to LT.
Better overall play from our CBs.
Better communication from the back of the defense and much fewer explosive plays allowed.
Somebody to make a positive impact in the return game.

Negative things I expect
Losing at least one game to an ACC team that we are more talented than on paper.
Growing pains from playing younger (albeit more talented) players more snaps.
Growing pains early in the season from replacing both coordinators and most of our on-field coaching staff.
Feeling the loss of Hedley in the battle for field position.
Injuries at RB impacting that unit's productivity and hampering playcalling.
Our lack of experienced, big-bodied DTs to be a problem.
Mario with a head-scratching timeout and/or challenge.
Our youth and/or marginal talent at CB2 and NB getting exploited at times.
Our lack of playable safety depth hurting us (at a minimum after some inevitable targeting ejections).
Click to expand...
Well thought out and some excellent points
 
DTP said:
Why are you throwing in the towel against Texas A&M? They went 5-7 last year too. They only won by 8 points at home last year. They have huge question marks at quarterback and all over their offense. They've recruited well and should have a good defensive line but I have no reason to see them as "clear favorites". They aren't a good football team.
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A&M is -6.5 right now at Draftkings.

I think they were right around the same last year when we went to College Station.
 
Rellyrell said:
I’ve posted ad nauseam to the history of HC who have made huge leaps in yr 2.

However, imma take a different angle:
Randy Shannon -
Yr 1: 5-7
Yr 2: 7-6

Al Golden -
Yr 1: 6-6
Yr 2: 7-5

Manny Diaz -
Yr 1: 6-7
Yr 2: 8-3

Now these mutha fckas r all of our favorite most hated coaches, right? Mario is supposed to be 10x the coach of these losers, correct?

So imma put it like this, if we win less than 8 games in yr 2, Imma feel a certain type of way. I backed Mario & preached patience in yr 1 b/c of what was inherited, but there’s no reason y in yr 2, w/ an alleged roster more in his image that we should be losing more than 4 games this yr, not w/ this schedule.

We play:
G5 Miami (OH)
A TAMU team in influx
GT who fired their coach
FCS BCU
G5 Temple team that went 3-9 last season.

This right here should be NO LESS than a 4-1 start, but in reality should be a 5-0 start since TAMU still have QB ? marks.

We then play:
UNC who lost their two best WRs
Clemson
UVA that went 3-9 last season AND lost their starting QB
NCSt who’s replacing Leary w/ UVA’s trash
FSU

This stretch should be 4-1 if our mentality is right, but I’ll go 3-2 to be nice.

We finish up w/:
UL who’s bringing in a whole new staff
BC who’s weak af

2-0

Our regular season should be 9-3, period.

And allow me to nix the potential change in-staff excuse; Diaz went 8-3 in yr 2 w/ a whole new Offensive Staff from yr 1, brought in a new QB from the portal, & lost his best WR in KJ Osborn.
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Well done good sir. Man, I wanna believe 👍🏽
 
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