Putting the “concern” on paper

[BoxingRobes]

A lot of comments without context so here’s the “concern” for me with numbers to show it

Notre Dame:

Miami goes up 21-7 and forces Notre Dame to punt

The next 4 drives we gain 15 yards on 13 plays

South Florida:

The game was a beat down in the final box however Miami goes up 28-6 and forces punt

Next 4 drives combined we gain 66 yards on 13 plays including 2 turnovers

Florida:

We go up 10-0 and our defense is dominating. Forces 4 punts in a row

In the next 6 drives we run 34 plays for 123 yards get a FG and turn it over once

FSU:

We go up 28-3 and force a punt

The rest of the game we run 17 plays for a total of 24 yards


So listen it’s college football. Winning is hard. It’s not PS5 on freshman level

Our defense is routinely putting us in position for kill shots and we are struggling to get it done. Individually it’s not necessarily a big deal and ultimately may not matter but this is the only small alarm bell im concerned with at the moment

Not a “concern” maybe just something worth noting

Its the penalties, brother.

They negate big plays (we should have hit 35 on that one Toney TD that was called back). They put us behind schedule. Drive killers and opposing team drive extenders.

The penalties are an area that are a real concern and one that will bite us in the *** if we don't clean it up.

Look @ Mario's face in the second half. Partially ****ed and trying not to show it, partially a look of "this is going to **** us so bad". It is going to **** us if we don't tighten it up. Mario knows.

 

[JHallCanes]

Its the penalties, brother.

They negate big plays (we should have hit 35 on that one Toney TD that was called back). They put us behind schedule. Drive killers and opposing team drive extenders.

The penalties are an area that are a real concern and one that will bite us in the *** if we don't clean it up.

Look @ Mario's face in the second half. Partially ****ed and trying not to show it, partially a look of "this is going to **** us so bad". It is going to **** us if we don't tighten it up. Mario knows.

Agreed

Inexplicable penalties on the OL

We’ve invested way too many resources in that unit to have it happen this much

Also why I’m not panicking that’s an area we should absolutely be able to clean up especially against weaker comp

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

I think the refusal of some to recognize this is wildly frustrating. These things bite you in the a** inevitably. I keep reading people say, "everyone complained about the 2001 team too". Yea, well, the greatest team ever assembled almost lost to Boston College. It was unacceptable then and it's unacceptable now. Ed Reed's entire speech in that game was him saying exactly that.

The good news is there is nothing stopping this team from correcting these issues other than themselves. More discipline and better coaching that has a feel for the team and the ups and downs. Dawson needs to learn the ebbs and flows of our current roster and do a better job play calling in the 3rd and 4th.

It's fixable. Be happy about that. If we want it, we can have it.

One thing I’ve learned as I’ve gotten older is the importance tone plays in communicating. Starting a convo with “STFU” before making a point is an excellent way to pizz people off and prevent them from even hearing the point (assuming there is one). There is so much extreme hyperbole thrown around on message boards and the internet in general that it is actually refreshing to see a rationale and somewhat sane take on this topic. (hat tip @JHallCanes)
Any sane fan can see that we have taken our foot off the gas or loosened our foot on the other teams' throats. That's not what we want to see. We want to see our team ramming it down the opposition's throat like (insert your favorite female "star's" name here) the entire 4th quarter. We want to see the FSU fans CRYING tears of sadness after we punish them. We want to see current versions of Timmy Tebow on his knee CRYING to end a game. We want to see Touchdown Jesus CRYING real tears. However, being undefeated counts more than anything, including style points. And we are 5-0 with a team that is very relevant, very good, and very well might win this whole damm thing.... if we learn to snuff the life out of teams in the 4th quarter.

 

[JHallCanes]

One thing I’ve learned as I’ve gotten older is the importance tone plays in communicating. Starting a convo with “STFU” before making a point is an excellent way to pizz people off and prevent them from even hearing the point (assuming there is one). There is so much extreme hyperbole thrown around on message boards and the internet in general that it is actually refreshing to see a rationale and somewhat sane take on this topic. (hat tip @JHallCanes)
Any sane fan can see that we have taken our foot off the gas or loosened our foot on the other teams' throats. That's not what we want to see. We want to see our team ramming it down the opposition's throat like (insert your favorite female "star's" name here) the entire 4th quarter. We want to see the FSU fans CRYING tears of sadness after we punish them. We want to see current versions of Timmy Tebow on his knee CRYING to end a game. We want to see Touchdown Jesus CRYING real tears. However, being undefeated counts more than anything, including style points. And we are 5-0 with a team that is very relevant, very good, and very well might win this whole damm thing.... if we learn to snuff the life out of teams in the 4th quarter.

You are a wise man my friend

I spend a lot of time educating and talking to people about their health every day

It’s as important HOW I say something as it is what I say. Ties in with what we said about S&C. Anyone can give out a program but a good teacher relates the material better

When I see Heatherman for example I see a hard *** talking about playing violent and swarming

Well what DC doesn’t say that? Obviously his approach outside of the sound bites is working because guys are buying in (so far anyway) so he’s doing something else right besides just talking tough

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

You are a wise man my friend

I spend a lot of time educating and talking to people about their health every day

It’s as important HOW I say something as it is what I say. Ties in with what we said about S&C. Anyone can give out a program but a good teacher relates the material better

When I see Heatherman for example I see a hard *** talking about playing violent and swarming

Well what DC doesn’t say that? Obviously his approach outside of the sound bites is working because guys are buying in (so far anyway) so he’s doing something else right besides just talking tough

Thanks for the compliment altough I am far from having this stuff mastered. I like to think of myself as a caveman trying to become closer to human being level. This sort of stuff helps.

Hetherman makes me want to run through walls and murk people.

 

[skyman]

Last year team was Soo elite and cam was the one, it didn't matter if penalty was 5 yards or 15 yards on 4th down, are offense was still able to pick up.. there is a reason we played with a hubris to end the year, nothing could stop us it felt like

This years team can't overcome penalties, they have to play clean but they are taking points off the board and can woulda slapped somebody last year idk who is that guy this year..

I just don't like how we shut down the game plan with a whole 4th quarter to go . Notre Dame and now fsu u have the whole 4th qtr not doing anything.. both offense and defense abandon original game plan and go conservative for whole 4th qtr.. not a good recipe..

 

[AlexCane]

One thing I’ve learned as I’ve gotten older is the importance tone plays in communicating. Starting a convo with “STFU” before making a point is an excellent way to pizz people off and prevent them from even hearing the point (assuming there is one). There is so much extreme hyperbole thrown around on message boards and the internet in general that it is actually refreshing to see a rationale and somewhat sane take on this topic. (hat tip @JHallCanes)
Any sane fan can see that we have taken our foot off the gas or loosened our foot on the other teams' throats. That's not what we want to see. We want to see our team ramming it down the opposition's throat like (insert your favorite female "star's" name here) the entire 4th quarter. We want to see the FSU fans CRYING tears of sadness after we punish them. We want to see current versions of Timmy Tebow on his knee CRYING to end a game. We want to see Touchdown Jesus CRYING real tears. However, being undefeated counts more than anything, including style points. And we are 5-0 with a team that is very relevant, very good, and very well might win this whole damm thing.... if we learn to snuff the life out of teams in the 4th quarter.

Thank you for the wise words ye named "BigDikDaddy."

 

[flips]

@JHallCanes

Ate some tylenol and crunched some data this morning. I defined "garbage time" drives as drives running out the clock before half, anything after a team went up 28+ pts in second half/played their backup QB/arbitrary choice in 4th quarter based on time and score. I included offensive possessions that ended games that didn't start out with the intent to kneel, but developed that way because teams possessed the ball so long, so the 0 point drive % are skewed slightly for some teams. Used the updated adjusted defensive-epa rankings from gameonpaper. 77 FBS teams out of 136 currently have negative adj. defensive epa metrics.

Some takeaways:

- no other top 10 team has played as many quality defenses as we have​

- the drive/game when leading from the 2nd quarter on is kind of a mess because if a game is tied or flip flopping back (like OU-PSU) naturally the number will be low for that game, but it isn't great that we are averaging 8 possessions from 2nd quarter on with the lead because that means we spent a lot of time failing to turn the game into garbage time.​

- points/drive not great, but not turrible​

- 3 & out % has gotta be fixed. it's one thing not to continue to score when you're winning, another to go 3 & out 40% of the time. (I included 3 & outs that resulted in FG attempts here)​

- but we have also been very bad relative to other top 10 teams in scoring points when ahead​

- was a bit surprised to learn we are middle of the pack in suffering negative plays on drives we didn't score points on (but does back up my contention that our offense isn't robust enough to score points when we get behind the sticks)​

- we've had 2 games with 2 consecutive+ 3 and outs while leading, again not great​

- middle of the pack in turnover %, but similar to our offenses inability to score when we get behind the sticks, we probably want to be closer to #1 there than where we are​

- most optimistic way to look at it is we have played more quality defenses than anyone else in the top 10, but have struggled to get first downs and score when we've gotten ahead.​

- there's no time like the next game to buck this trend, since UL has the best adjusted defense EPA we have facecd this year (they are tied for #3 in FBS)​

 

[JHallCanes]

@JHallCanes

View attachment 338616
View attachment 338617

Ate some tylenol and crunched some data this morning. I defined "garbage time" drives as drives running out the clock before half, anything after a team went up 28+ pts in second half/played their backup QB/arbitrary choice in 4th quarter based on time and score. I included offensive possessions that ended games that didn't start out with the intent to kneel, but developed that way because teams possessed the ball so long, so the 0 point drive % are skewed slightly for some teams. Used the updated adjusted defensive-epa rankings from gameonpaper. 77 FBS teams out of 136 currently have negative adj. defensive epa metrics.

Some takeaways:

- no other top 10 team has played as many quality defenses as we have​

- the drive/game when leading from the 2nd quarter on is kind of a mess because if a game is tied or flip flopping back (like OU-PSU) naturally the number will be low for that game, but it isn't great that we are averaging 8 possessions from 2nd quarter on with the lead because that means we spent a lot of time failing to turn the game into garbage time.​

- points/drive not great, but not turrible​

- 3 & out % has gotta be fixed. it's one thing not to continue to score when you're winning, another to go 3 & out 40% of the time. (I included 3 & outs that resulted in FG attempts here)​

- but we have also been very bad relative to other top 10 teams in scoring points when ahead​

- was a bit surprised to learn we are middle of the pack in suffering negative plays on drives we didn't score points on (but does back up my contention that our offense isn't robust enough to score points when we get behind the sticks)​

- we've had 2 games with 2 consecutive+ 3 and outs while leading, again not great​

- middle of the pack in turnover %, but similar to our offenses inability to score when we get behind the sticks, we probably want to be closer to #1 there than where we are​

- most optimistic way to look at it is we have played more quality defenses than anyone else in the top 10, but have struggled to get first downs and score when we've gotten ahead.​

- there's no time like the next game to buck this trend, since UL has the best adjusted defense EPA we have facecd this year (they are tied for #3 in FBS)​

Amazing work first of all. Really good stuff (+rep for Tylenol comment)

I don’t want to pick a fight with the EFFICIENCY BROS but maybe I do…

The 3 and outs especially not converting on 3rd and short are a huge issue and an infusion of momentum for the other team

Last year we were one of the most successful 3rd down teams in college football history

I didn’t expect that this year but the people claiming that “more efficient” nonsense are awfully quiet now that games have started

 

[Flynell7]

It’s how we’ll lose to freaking Stanford or one of the “cold weather” games in late November. Just can’t finish games because the offense goes into a shell. FSU didn’t magically adjust from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter.

We ain’t losing to Stanford or any of these bums.

 

[flips]

Amazing work first of all. Really good stuff (+rep for Tylenol comment)

I don’t want to pick a fight with the EFFICIENCY BROS but maybe I do…

The 3 and outs especially not converting on 3rd and short are a huge issue and an infusion of momentum for the other team

Last year we were one of the most successful 3rd down teams in college football history

I didn’t expect that this year but the people claiming that “more efficient” nonsense are awfully quiet now that games have started

Agree on the 3 & outs. We have actually been really good since the ND game on 3rd & 4th & 2 or less. We went 2/4 against ND which sucked. Against USF/UF/FSU we have gone 14/15 in non-garbage time. The one we missed against FSU was a 3rd down and we got it on 4th. We are still hugely successful in late down short yardage situation. Credit to Coach.

You're right though there is a huge difference between our offense on late downs when it's not 2 or less this year versus last year. We were in the 99th percentile in late down success rate last year (raw of 58.7% SR) and are in the 71st percentile right now (raw of 49.3% SR). It's almost as if having the #1 pick at QB, who can run around and extend plays ad infinitum, helps you succeed more on 3rd/4th & more than 2? Big, if true.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Thank you for the wise words ye named "BigDikDaddy."

Not only am I not from Cincinnati.....

 

[Hufftwoseven]

Agreed. Time to self scout in the bye week and eliminate these sluggish stretches on offense.

 

[DTP]

It’s a re-occurring theme but each game has been a bit of a different story. Notre Dame and FSU decided they weren’t going to let us just run out the clock and dared us to beat them throwing the ball. We ran into 8 and 9 man fronts, gained nothing and punted a lot. Notre Dame was man handling our receivers and it looked like we had an issue creating space for them. FSU wasn’t nearly as effective and Dawson actually called a great game mixing in screens with some deep shots and a lot of underneath stuff to the tight ends. We just gave up on passing the ball in the fourth quarter.

Florida was a different story. The conditions were brutal and we were running at a pretty good clip. Stupid penalties really killed us on a couple drives but the conditions dictated that going run heavy was the smart play. We didn’t turtle up against UF, we just couldn’t execute consistently.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I'm not saying this is the definitive answer, but I've listened to multiple national podcasts the past couple days. Several who have folks who are QUICK to **** on Mario. And, every single one, literally, not one person has said anything other than "Miami kicked the **** out of FSU", and "Mario played it very well". It's been completely unanimous from everyone outside of this fanbase that the game was never in doubt, and sure it could have been a little smoother the last 10 minutes, but that was a resounding win in every facet and our coaches made absolutely zero poor decisions.

I'm cool with dissecting ****, that's why we're here. And I'll never say things are perfect. But also let's not let priors dictate our opinions about this particular game. A lot of this fanbase is chomping at the bit to let loose on Mario for any and every decision. Take a step back for a minute and try to look at things objectively. I promise you, the folks around the country who talk about this **** for a listen, and would **** well crucify Mario just as quickly as we would, have done absolutely nothing but sing our praises for 48 hours.

Overall, we were VERY well prepared for the game, the kids played well, they played hard, they played smart, we were the far superior team, and our coaches managed the game well. That's how I'll always remember the game. If we get literally one more first down at any point in the fourth quarter, the game ends 28-19 and we're having wayyyy less of this type of discussion right now.

 

[TheShredder]

I'm not saying this is the definitive answer, but I've listened to multiple national podcasts the past couple days. Several who have folks who are QUICK to **** on Mario. And, every single one, literally, not one person has said anything other than "Miami kicked the **** out of FSU", and "Mario played it very well". It's been completely unanimous from everyone outside of this fanbase that the game was never in doubt, and sure it could have been a little smoother the last 10 minutes, but that was a resounding win in every facet and our coaches made absolutely zero poor decisions.

I'm cool with dissecting ****, that's why we're here. And I'll never say things are perfect. But also let's not let priors dictate our opinions about this particular game. A lot of this fanbase is chomping at the bit to let loose on Mario for any and every decision. Take a step back for a minute and try to look at things objectively. I promise you, the folks around the country who talk about this **** for a listen, and would **** well crucify Mario just as quickly as we would, have done absolutely nothing but sing our praises for 48 hours.

Overall, we were VERY well prepared for the game, the kids played well, they played hard, they played smart, we were the far superior team, and our coaches managed the game well. That's how I'll always remember the game. If we get literally one more first down at any point in the fourth quarter, the game ends 28-19 and we're having wayyyy less of this type of discussion right now.

Which podcast said didn't say we went into a shell because Cover 3, Unnecessary roughness, The Athletic and Greg McElroy said we did.

 

[JHallCanes]

I'm not saying this is the definitive answer, but I've listened to multiple national podcasts the past couple days. Several who have folks who are QUICK to **** on Mario. And, every single one, literally, not one person has said anything other than "Miami kicked the **** out of FSU", and "Mario played it very well". It's been completely unanimous from everyone outside of this fanbase that the game was never in doubt, and sure it could have been a little smoother the last 10 minutes, but that was a resounding win in every facet and our coaches made absolutely zero poor decisions.

I'm cool with dissecting ****, that's why we're here. And I'll never say things are perfect. But also let's not let priors dictate our opinions about this particular game. A lot of this fanbase is chomping at the bit to let loose on Mario for any and every decision. Take a step back for a minute and try to look at things objectively. I promise you, the folks around the country who talk about this **** for a listen, and would **** well crucify Mario just as quickly as we would, have done absolutely nothing but sing our praises for 48 hours.

Overall, we were VERY well prepared for the game, the kids played well, they played hard, they played smart, we were the far superior team, and our coaches managed the game well. That's how I'll always remember the game. If we get literally one more first down at any point in the fourth quarter, the game ends 28-19 and we're having wayyyy less of this type of discussion right now.

Thank you for your thoughts as always my man. I know you get why I started the thread

We’ve purely dominated the **** out of our schedule for pretty much 3-3.5 quarters of football in each week

That’s sustained success period

Also you mentioned PTSD. Absolutely that’s part of the extra emotional stuff I see

When I take a step back I find myself thinking “this is a scary ******* football team” if we should actually be kicking people’s asses WORSE

 

[JHallCanes]

It’s a re-occurring theme but each game has been a bit of a different story. Notre Dame and FSU decided they weren’t going to let us just run out the clock and dared us to beat them throwing the ball. We ran into 8 and 9 man fronts, gained nothing and punted a lot. Notre Dame was man handling our receivers and it looked like we had an issue creating space for them. FSU wasn’t nearly as effective and Dawson actually called a great game mixing in screens with some deep shots and a lot of underneath stuff to the tight ends. We just gave up on passing the ball in the fourth quarter.

Florida was a different story. The conditions were brutal and we were running at a pretty good clip. Stupid penalties really killed us on a couple drives but the conditions dictated that going run heavy was the smart play. We didn’t turtle up against UF, we just couldn’t execute consistently.

Yeah and let’s be honest, it’s some tough ******* football teams to start the year

I personally expect this stuff to become a nothing convo once we are knee deep in ACC play. Doesn’t mean we just steamroll our way through but I don’t see the same level of comp plus weather etc

 

[DTP]

Yeah and let’s be honest, it’s some tough ******* football teams to start the year

I personally expect this stuff to become a nothing convo once we are knee deep in ACC play. Doesn’t mean we just steamroll our way through but I don’t see the same level of comp plus weather etc

No doubt. So far we’ve played 3 teams currently ranked in the top 25 and Florida who at the very least, has a really good defense.

 

[PalyCane]

@JHallCanes

View attachment 338616
View attachment 338617

Ate some tylenol and crunched some data this morning. I defined "garbage time" drives as drives running out the clock before half, anything after a team went up 28+ pts in second half/played their backup QB/arbitrary choice in 4th quarter based on time and score. I included offensive possessions that ended games that didn't start out with the intent to kneel, but developed that way because teams possessed the ball so long, so the 0 point drive % are skewed slightly for some teams. Used the updated adjusted defensive-epa rankings from gameonpaper. 77 FBS teams out of 136 currently have negative adj. defensive epa metrics.

Some takeaways:

- no other top 10 team has played as many quality defenses as we have​

- the drive/game when leading from the 2nd quarter on is kind of a mess because if a game is tied or flip flopping back (like OU-PSU) naturally the number will be low for that game, but it isn't great that we are averaging 8 possessions from 2nd quarter on with the lead because that means we spent a lot of time failing to turn the game into garbage time.​

- points/drive not great, but not turrible​

- 3 & out % has gotta be fixed. it's one thing not to continue to score when you're winning, another to go 3 & out 40% of the time. (I included 3 & outs that resulted in FG attempts here)​

- but we have also been very bad relative to other top 10 teams in scoring points when ahead​

- was a bit surprised to learn we are middle of the pack in suffering negative plays on drives we didn't score points on (but does back up my contention that our offense isn't robust enough to score points when we get behind the sticks)​

- we've had 2 games with 2 consecutive+ 3 and outs while leading, again not great​

- middle of the pack in turnover %, but similar to our offenses inability to score when we get behind the sticks, we probably want to be closer to #1 there than where we are​

- most optimistic way to look at it is we have played more quality defenses than anyone else in the top 10, but have struggled to get first downs and score when we've gotten ahead.​

- there's no time like the next game to buck this trend, since UL has the best adjusted defense EPA we have facecd this year (they are tied for #3 in FBS)​

Outstanding analysis