One reason our players make bad NFL decisions

[BigDikCane]

Dammit mane... Brandon Washington tried to warn these dudes...

 

[orange&green84]

No one is complaining because the RB stable is loaded. If AR82 leaves, with the way Dugans has been recruiting WR, people won't complain about him declaring either.

Alabama is typically loaded and gets production out of everyone by their 3rd year.

No one's complaining because we all knew at the time Walton got injured that he wasn't playing another down at Miami again because when the iron is hot for a RB, you have to strike given their short shelf life. Skill position players are far different than linemen.

 

[hoover437]

I’m just curious what that great agency and marketing team that was connected to this site at one time has to say to them at this time!

 

[RomeoJunior]

Ummmmmmm.....no. If a guy like Christian Wilkins who would've likely gone in the 1st round this year tears an ACL, I'm willing to bet that he's not going in the 1st round next year. Also, if you have a significant lack of production compared to your junior year, that's also another black mark.

I disagree,...as I'm just not seeing what you're seeing.

Defensive end Kentavius Street, who tore his anterior cruciate ligament in a pre-draft workout with the New York Giants, got drafted by the 49ers in Saturday's fourth round. Later, in the sixth round, the 49ers took Florida safety Marcell Harris.

Harris had decided to return for his redshirt senior season, hoping to boost his draft stock in 2017.

Instead, a torn right Achilles tendon in the summer sidelined him for the entire fall and left him with even more to prove to NFL scouts and decision-makers.

Not sure the direction you'd really like to go discussing possible injuries,...as it would only push MORE of our players out of the door to leave early.

But as you can see,...more-proven kids still get their shot.

 

[JOE'CANE]

Pinckney's play is day 1/2 draft potential. But as you've said, a lot of teams are going to see the way he treats his body as a major red flag. Not taking care of your body in the NFL leads to more injuries and a shortened career.

I don't think Homer's a top 3 round draft pick (he's close and likely to go around where Walton went draft rankings-wise). But agree on the other 3 you mention. For RBs, I don't necessarily disagree with them leaving though given their short window to make money so long as they have a legit chance of actually making a team (like Walton).

In no way should McCloud and Bethel even think about leaving early. I agree with the general sentiment on the board - Richt needs to get in their ear along with Pinckney's and tell them to come back for their senior years. Shaq's one that if he takes the next step, I don't know how you realistically tell him to come back.

Running Back is one of the only positions that can make a legitimate argument for leaving early year in and year out but than again look at Yearby. Btw i dont think homer is better than Walton. I think homer goes later unless he has a huge year.

 

[TheMatador]

This is more accurate than funny. And anyone that tries to rationalize with Norton leaving early (ie - you don't know his financial situation, he wouldn't have done mucsomeh better, etc.) just needs to stfu.

Some of these guys just won't do much better from year 3 to year 4. And once you get into the bottom half of the third round, there's not that much difference in salary. Look at how the chart levels off toward the bottom of the third round. Norton might not lose much by going now and he gets an extra year of his slightly lower salary. I didn't see anything that told me he would make a big leap and become a high third round pick if he stayed. There are enough space-eaters around. He was not an exceptional one-tech or NT type.

 

[DTP]

Shaq and Pink would have to have monster years next year if they're going to consider leaving early. As of now, they're both in that good, not great category.

These guys need to get the whole "second contract" nonsense out of their heads. Most players don't make it to a second contract. If you're drafted in the 6th round or later, there's a good chance you dont make it through the first season, let alone first contract. Late round picks are expendable. Get picked late and dont wow your team immediately? Your *** is cut. Any chance you have at improving your draft stock, even if it's one round, is worth staying for.

 

[orange&green84]

Some of these guys just won't do much better from year 3 to year 4. And once you get into the bottom half of the third round, there's not that much difference in salary. Look at how the chart levels off toward the bottom of the third round. Norton might not lose much by going now and he gets an extra year of his slightly lower salary. I didn't see anything that told me he would make a big leap and become a high third round pick if he stayed. There are enough space-eaters around. He was not an exceptional one-tech or NT type.

Difference between a 3rd/4th round pick is team's are willing to have more patience with you given the investment level. Look at Reuben Foster on the 49ers, he's still currently on the roster despite felony charges because the 49ers invested a late 1st round pick in him. If he was a 5th round pick, he would've been kicked off of the team already.

But again, you guys are trying to make a point in him leaving because he wouldn't have done that much better. He might not even play in the NFL at this point, possibly practice squad. There are a ton of guys in college that aren't going onto the NFL, you see them leaving school early?

 

[DTP]

Also, the potential high draft pick who stays another year only to have a serious injury almost never happens. You could blow out a knee playing pickup basketball with your friends.

 

[orange&green84]

Running Back is one of the only positions that can make a legitimate argument for leaving early year in and year out but than again look at Yearby. Btw i dont think homer is better than Walton. I think homer goes later unless he has a huge year.

Yeah, in Yearby's case it made absolutely zero sense for him to leave. Yet, you'll still see people defend it to this day, regardless of him not even making a practice squad and not being able to complete his degree at Miami.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

Shaq and Pink would have to have monster years next year if they're going to consider leaving early. As of now, they're both in that good, not great category.

These guys need to get the whole "second contract" nonsense out of their heads. Most players don't make it to a second contract. If you're drafted in the 6th round or later, there's a good chance you dont make it through the first season, let alone first contract. Late round picks are expendable. Get picked late and dont wow your team immediately? Your *** is cut. Any chance you have at improving your draft stock, even if it's one round, is worth staying for.

Did you not see the chart someone posted earlier? There is virtually no difference in compensation after Round 2.

The ONLY reasons someone should stay an extra year is if they believe that:

1) They can play themselves into a top 50 selection
2) They won't make a roster in the current year, but would in the next year

 

[orange&green84]

I disagree,...as I'm just not seeing what you're seeing.



Not sure the direction you'd really like to go discussing possible injuries,...as it would only push MORE of our players out of the door to leave early.

But as you can see,...more-proven kids still get their shot.

How do you not see it?

If you're slated to be a 1st round pick and you come back, a serious injury could derail that. You're taking an unnecessary gamble.

In Norton and McIntosh, you have the opportunity to improve.

 

[fraggle]

Out of curiosity I wonder how many first round picks this year played the full 4 years? Anyone have that stat?

 

[Dwinstitles]

only leave if u are a sure fire top 10 best at your position type IMO

 

[Tad Footeball]

I hate posting on internet message boards, but given how poor the analysis is on this thread, I couldn't help myself...

The previously posted chart shows that there's virtually no difference between the compensation of a 3rd rounder and of a 7th rounder (and do a quick google search for UFA salaries- you'll see that they're the same as a 7th rounder's). But you have 1 more year of income if you leave early, so really you're only better off staying if you're drafted in the top ~50 of the following year. Per the chart, that's the point at which you make more than a draftee in Rounds 3-7/UFA + one full year of earnings. How many guys can actually work themselves into the top 50? Well, not many - less than 50 in the entire country...

So as long as you make a roster, and assuming you develop at the same rate as which you would in college, the vast majority of guys are better off going pro as soon as possible. The first contract has incremental value for only a very small % of players

[And of course I've left off the value of a college degree, yada yada...but many of these guys don't complete their degrees anyways, and they can always come back to finish their credits at a later date. It's certainly valuable, but probably not a needle mover for most guys with realistic shots at an NFL future]

You do realize that the first measurable on that graph is $5 mil, right?

I'll just counter with this- let's look at RJ specifically. He was the 2nd pick of the 5th Round. Let's say conservatively he would've gone as the 2nd pick of the 3rd Round if he came back. Here is the salary differential of the two guys that went in both of those spots to the Niners last year (via www.overthecap.com):

George Kittle signed a 4 year contract worth $2,698,296 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Kittle received a guarantee worth $298,296 including a $298,296 signing bonus.

Ahkello Witherspoon signed a 4 year contract worth $3,884,665 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Witherspoon received a guarantee worth $973,572 including a $973,572 signing bonus.

This is just a 2 round differential and you're claiming there's virtually no difference between a 3rd rounder and a 7th rounder? And that even negates the added benefit of the job security a lot of guys get from being a 4th round pick or better since teams are less prone to admit mistakes and cut those guys as quick.

 

[TC7D]

I haven’t looked into it, but of those that OP listed, how many stayed 4 years? I know Hurns, Linder, Benjamin, and Graham all were at UM for 4 years. There is something to be said about using the last year to get bigger, stronger, faster at a place that actually needs to invest in you.

 

[hoover437]

Some don't care about establishing long term relationships and just want to make a buck as quick as possible, even if it means losing out on potentially more later on.

This smells of this with the two dts! I understand what happened to forston and Brandon Washington Golden was doing nothing for there career. Don’t understand Kayaa and the two this year. Mark richt knows how to make these players money, look at his history

 

[ALLoverCANE]

You do realize that the first measurable on that graph is $5 mil, right?

I'll just counter with this- let's look at RJ specifically. He was the 2nd pick of the 5th Round. Let's say conservatively he would've gone as the 2nd pick of the 3rd Round if he came back. Here is the salary differential of the two guys that went in both of those spots to the Niners last year (via ovethecap.com):

George Kittle signed a 4 year contract worth $2,698,296 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Kittle received a guarantee worth $298,296 including a $298,296 signing bonus.

Ahkello Witherspoon signed a 4 year contract worth $3,884,665 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Witherspoon received a guarantee worth $973,572 including a $973,572 signing bonus.

This is just a 2 round differential and you're claiming there's virtually no difference between a 3rd rounder and a 7th rounder? And that even negates the added benefit of the job security a lot of guys get from being a 4th round pick or better since teams are less prone to admit mistakes and cut those guys as quick.

Yes, that's the first measurable. By the time the 3rd round starts that value looks to be ~$3.5M, and it never drops below ~$2.5M. Maybe that chart is outdated, as your numbers are a bit higher. So maybe I was wrong in pegging the cutoff at ~50, maybe it's ~70.

Regardless, the gap between Kittle and Witherspoon was $1.2M. Rookie salaries in the NFL are ~$0.6M, so you have to subtract that out. The true gap is $0.6M, minus getting to that second contract faster. I know receiving a 2nd contract is not a guarantee, but that doesn't mean you should assign it a 0% probability. I don't want to start looking into stats on second contracts, nor making assumptions at personal discount rates, but you have to figure that with even a 20%-30% probability of receiving a second contract you've more than overcome that $0.6M gap

[And I would disagree that that's a conservative projection for RJ. I think that's a realistic projection had he come back next year, but not a conservative one]

[Also, you can't say "this is just a 2 round differential", because the differential is not linear. The gap between rounds 1 and 3 is a 2 round differential, as is the gap between rounds 3 and 5. But per the chart, the former 2 round differential looks to be ~$2M, but the latter 2 round differential is only a couple of hundred K]

 

[Trav]

You can't compare Kaaya and RJ/Norton. Kaaya was a 6th round talent regardless of whether he came back. He had nothing left to show scouts. RJ and Norton had the opportunity to come back and drastically improve their draft position.

I don't buy that. Another year in Richt's system and an improved defense giving him better field position and scoring opportunities could have done wonders.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

You do realize that the first measurable on that graph is $5 mil, right?

I'll just counter with this- let's look at RJ specifically. He was the 2nd pick of the 5th Round. Let's say conservatively he would've gone as the 2nd pick of the 3rd Round if he came back. Here is the salary differential of the two guys that went in both of those spots to the Niners last year (via www.overthecap.com):

George Kittle signed a 4 year contract worth $2,698,296 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Kittle received a guarantee worth $298,296 including a $298,296 signing bonus.

Ahkello Witherspoon signed a 4 year contract worth $3,884,665 with the 49ers on May 11, 2017. Witherspoon received a guarantee worth $973,572 including a $973,572 signing bonus.

This is just a 2 round differential and you're claiming there's virtually no difference between a 3rd rounder and a 7th rounder? And that even negates the added benefit of the job security a lot of guys get from being a 4th round pick or better since teams are less prone to admit mistakes and cut those guys as quick.

All of that being said, I do believe there should be some sort of risk adjustment, which my estimates don't take into account. The amount of guaranteed money varies (although not be a huge amount), plus there's the chance that you don't even make a roster. Both of those risks need to be accounted for. But I said previously that you have to believe that you will make a roster, otherwise of course you stay.

I think once you work through the math, taking everything into account, you realize that these are really toss up decisions. Getting drafted or not getting drafted doesn't validate or invalidate the decision.