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Miami -6 vs UNC

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public perception is always a big factor. everyone & their mother saw us allow 10 sacks. everyone & their mother watched UNC beat an "sec" team. +6 at home for UNC looks like a steal in the publics eyes. remember your casual bettor doesn't know Miami like we do.
 
Sam Howell will more than likely be the best QB we face in the regular season but that doesn't mean we won't win. As a matter of fact, UNC'S run defense IMO is pretty bad. I believe we rush for over 200 yards in this game and a big game from our tight ends. I will say Jarren has to identify those ZONE schemes on obvious passing downs that UNC likes to call. Chaz Surratt IMO is their anchor on defense, so give Deejay or Harris the ball and run through him early.
 
SouthernM said:
-4.5 now
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It's like the cone of a hurricane. The power ratings fluctuate more early in the season. Some models allow more credit to North Carolina's upset win over South Carolina than others do. Consequently the power ratings I've seen make this game anywhere from -3.5 to -7. Very logical that the number is settling in the middle of that range, with some books at -4.5, some at -5 and still some at -5.5.

None of this is complicated once you accept that power ratings dictate these numbers. Oddsmakers don't have the time or the necessity to apply gobs of subjectivity. They now have literally a dozen or more sets of power ratings to steal and blend into a consensus. Just use the numerical guidelines to hang the numbers, and then see where the bettors will take it.

I favor the Canes side. As I've mentioned, home underdogs that won outright as home underdog in the prior game have a poor history against the number. They cover roughly 35% of the time. The late action generally favors that trend so if anything I would expect the number to bump upward late. But still possible it drops more before that. Some major betting groups play on Thursday. They can shift numbers a point or more.

We need to take away North Carolina's midrange to deep sideline fades. That was glaring while watching that game. The freshman quarterback loves those throws, to either side. They never would have pulled out that game minus those calls. He has very good touch on those throws but is more hesitant and error prone when forced to explore over the middle.
 
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247 Canes said:
Sam Howell will more than likely be the best QB we face in the regular season but that doesn't mean we won't win. As a matter of fact, UNC'S run defense IMO is pretty bad. I believe we rush for over 200 yards in this game and a big game from our tight ends. I will say Jarren has to identify those ZONE schemes on obvious passing downs that UNC likes to call. Chaz Surratt IMO is their anchor on defense, so give Deejay or Harris the ball and run through him early.
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Based on what? What has Howell done to even garner this type of thinking
 
247 Canes said:
Sam Howell will more than likely be the best QB we face in the regular season but that doesn't mean we won't win. As a matter of fact, UNC'S run defense IMO is pretty bad. I believe we rush for over 200 yards in this game and a big game from our tight ends. I will say Jarren has to identify those ZONE schemes on obvious passing downs that UNC likes to call. Chaz Surratt IMO is their anchor on defense, so give Deejay or Harris the ball and run through him early.
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Sam Howell the best QB we will face!!!!:rk5i6fxwjlgev5j6.jpg:
 
JgDaCane said:
public perception is always a big factor. everyone & their mother saw us allow 10 sacks. everyone & their mother watched UNC beat an "sec" team. +6 at home for UNC looks like a steal in the publics eyes. remember your casual bettor doesn't know Miami like we do.
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I agree with this, but public bettors didn’t move this line from -6 to -4.5 in one move today. This was a 1.5 point jump due to sharp money, no question about it.

Now, it could very well be a setup by some syndicate to get the line down to -4 before hammering Miami with five times the money they wagered on UNC +6. We shall see come Saturday.
 
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31 Miami to 3 UNC Jarren Williams gives us at least 4 TD drives and 1 results in a FG. The Defense sacks Howell 6 times, and he cries in the car with Mack Brown after the game.
 
I’m not expecting a blowout but at least a 7 point or 2 score win for Miami this game. Unc always plays Miami tough, especially at home. Even when we went 10-0 in 2017 when they were 1-7 at the time missing a bunch of players they played Miami tough
 
I wouldn't be shocked if we lost this game. Disgusted as ****, but not shocked. Is everyone forgetting the X factor? ACC officiating. Not just that, but ACC officiating AT UNC. You think the officiating was bad against UF, just wait until Saturday night. If we don't destroy UNC, they will be getting every critical call to keep it close.
 
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Poptimus said:
I agree with this, but public bettors didn’t move this line from -6 to -4.5 in one move today. This was a 1.5 point jump due to sharp money, no question about it.

Now, it could very well be a setup by some syndicate to get the line down to -4 before hammering Miami with five times the money they wagered on UNC +6. We shall see come Saturday.
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Is it your feeling that a certain group of people know what the outcome of games is going to be?
 
Mr. Dynasty1 said:
Based on what? What has Howell done to even garner this type of thinking
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1hurricane said:
Sam Howell the best QB we will face!!!!:rk5i6fxwjlgev5j6.jpg:
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OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
Yea, I was going to say, the “best QB we will face”. I’d like for somebody to break that down in a comparison
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Well... I watch Elite 11/QB1 every season and I will tell you Sam Howell shows me more promise than most of the QB's we will face.




North Carolina QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Sam-Howell-91707/

Vs.

Central Michigan QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Quinten-Dormady-28115/
Virginia Tech QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Ryan-Willis-34704/
Virginia QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Bryce-Perkins-21985/
Georgia Tech QB - https://247sports.com/player/james-graham-91927/
Pittsburgh QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Kenny-Pickett-81700/
Florida State QB - https://247sports.com/Player/James-Blackman-79879/
Louisville QB - https://247sports.com/player/jawon-pass-33473/
Florida International University QB - https://247sports.com/player/james-morgan-30589/
Duke QB - https://247sports.com/Player/Quentin-Harris-26885/
 
The Franchise said:
Is it your feeling that a certain group of people know what the outcome of games is going to be?
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More often than not, yes. That’s why they have the money and respect to move lines. It’s a very small amount of people. It’s kind of like how when you see “Cocaine Cowboys” for the first time and learn that the overwhelming amount of cocaine coming into the U.S. in the 80’s was from one small group and you wonder how can that be. There are a select few groups that are responsible for most of the line moves, especially 1.5 point jumps. Look up Billy Walters for starters.
 
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Poptimus said:
More often than not, yes. That’s why they have the money and respect to move lines. It’s a very small amount of people. It’s kind of like how when you see “Cocaine Cowboys” for the first time and learn that the overwhelming amount of cocaine coming into the U.S. in the 80’s was from one small group and you wonder how can that be. There are a select few groups that are responsible for most of the line moves, especially 1.5 point jumps. Look up Billy Walters for starters.
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What the fvck are you on about
 
Last time the line moved that much was right before the Pitt game when we lost. I think it was like the night before the game.
This is 5 days out. Either someone has a ref in his pocket or is setting people up.
 
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