Managing the salary cap

[MiamiBusiness]

My takeaway from the information posted re: bust rates is that we should (1) recruit the highest rated defensive lineman prospects and drop the necessary legal bags to get them to come here, which will be significant, and (2) identify the RIGHT quarterback prospects, which, given the bust rates, may not necessarily be the highest rated guys or require an obscene amount of capital to acquire. Wide receivers appear to be closer to bucket (2) than bucket (1).

The reality is you probably need studs at all of these positions to consistently contend for national championships.

 

[gacaneaddict]

By the way, for all this talk about the “playoff era” being different, here are some QBs who have held the trophy in the playoff era:

Stetson Bennett, Jacob Coker, Cardale Jones.

Luckily, they had the likes of Joey Bosa, Travon Walker, Jordan Davis, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and more.

Cordele Jones led offense last 3 games of that national titie run.

59 points
42 points
42 points

Beat Bama 42-35! Thank goodness that stud DL held Bama to 35 points! Jones played at a very high level to end that season. He wasn't game managing Ohio State to a title.

Jacob Coker balled out in that national title game. I was there and saw him drop a long pass in a bucket to set up a game changing TD. He threw for 335 yards, and they won 45-40 with over a thousand yards of total offense in that game combined. DL had such a small factor in that game. If he threw for 200 and game managed they would've lost.

LSU 2019 I'm not sure they had a top 20 DL, they were a pedestrian defense most of the season.

Clemson 2022 is going to be a great test case.

Arguably best DL in America.

 

[DMoney]

Really? I see 3 for sure (DJ, mesidor, Taylor), 1 real likely (agude) snd I think JL has a shot.

I could see that, it’s just early. Trying to be conservative in light of what we saw last year.

 

[DMoney]

Cordele Jones led offense last 3 games of that national titie run.

59 points
42 points
42 points

Beat Bama 42-35! Thank goodness that stud DL held Bama to 35 points! Jones played at a very high level to end that season. He wasn't game managing Ohio State to a title.

Jones was 15 TDs and 7 INTs for his career. Third string on that team. He was not the type of QB people are describing in this thread. That team was good on offense because they had Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Devin Smith and Curtis Samuel and a strong OL.

Coker was even worse. Does anybody think he was a high-level QB? He was an average dude on a great team.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

But the QB can more easily produce with average WRs than a great WR can elevate an average QB. Not to mention, that QB is only helped when he throws to that one WR. QB has his hands on the ball too much to not be considered more important that a single WR.

I think the issue is that QBs are a crapshoot, especially out of HS. A top tier 5 star QB recruit out of HS is going to be in the market for a 7 figure deal (rarely see a top tier QB go into the portal). I'm not saying the QBs aren't valuable, just that it's such a hard position to evaluate that I wouldn't feel comfortable giving a huge NIL deal to a 5 star QB out of HS.

I wouldn't have any issue with giving a significant NIL deal to a 5 star DT or DE out of HS, however. I haven't looked at the numbers but my gut feeling is that a 5 star DT or DE is more likely to pan out than a 5 star QB.

This offseason there were rumors that Mims was looking at a 2 Mil NIL deal, and Addison up to 3 Mil. Im trying make this scientific like Jimmy Johnson did with scoring draft picks. Do you get value for your money. I think a top WR is worth 3 mil, but a top OL (especially one who hasn't started) is not.

 

[Bender]

Yes they were. Anderson was a freshman and had 7+ sacks. Barramore and Mathis were players...what are yout alking about?. lol

They were a really good unit, but if we consider Georgia studs, I dont see Alabama on that level.

Their offense was the talk of the team and they always delivered, especially against Ole Miss and Florida.

My point remains. That doesnt mean I consider the position unimportant lol I just value QBs higher

 

[BS85]

Without reading the entire thread, is the argument that a QB is more important than a defensive lineman (singular) or a good d-line overall?

 

[grover]

Feels to me like the portal is going to have more importance than high school recruiting because of the higher level of confidence about an NIL investment paying off.

 

[calinative umstudent]

But when you remove DL play, you can’t compete. Look at us this year with an elite QB and bad DL. We won 7 games.

We had our best season in 15 years with a G5 talent at QB and a top DL.

having a great DL is the most important thing defensively. But there are also significantly more great to elite Defensive lineman than there are QBs. This is a supply and demand issue and always has been as far as money is concerned. Secondly there will be like 3-4 QBs on the roster vs 15ish DLineman.

The average price per player for QB WILL and SHOULD be significantly higher than DL/EDGE. Idk how that would even be up for debate. And as a position group, QB absolutely should be 15-22% of the “salary cap”. Make no mistake a stud QB WILL cost that because unlike the NFL there is no rookie wage scale. So in college there will be nothing limiting the pay of QBs. There will be no option but to pay an above average QB more than anyone else on the team.

And we can avoid most of this debate by just looking at PFFs college football wins above replacement/average metrics specifically for college players which is a pure analytics approach. Their results for college are something like:

Qb - 18.2
Wr - 9.14
Cb - 8.78
Rb - 7
Lb - 6.82
S - 6.45
Edge - 6.2
Dl - 4.71
Te - 3.83
Ot - 3.78
G -2.88
C - 2.5

So as a whole the DLs value is 10.91, OL is 9.16 which would place them above WR/CB. But every position group is still half as valuable as QB. What this means is that a great QB has a far greater impact on W/L than a great DL. Secondly the fact that you are able to say no Teams win championships without great DLines actually can be used as an argument that having a great DLine isn’t as special (as in out of the ordinary) - because so many teams do have great DLines - aka easier and this cheaper to obtain.

 

[RightSaidFred]

We need to go full new york yankees and buy studs at every position. Stack chips everywhere and let them compete

 

[DMoney]

Getting back to the OP, I’m leaning more toward Portal QBs if you are spending seven figures. You know what you’re getting. @Liberty City El has discussed becoming a Portal QB school in the past. It makes sense if the high school QB market keeps going crazy.

You need to be competitive with schools like TAMU, Bama and UGA in the DL arms race so you can’t be burning $2 million on a bust high school QB.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

Getting back to the OP, I’m leaning more toward Portal QBs if you are spending seven figures. You know what you’re getting. @Liberty City El has discussed becoming a Portal QB school in the past. It makes sense if the high school QB market keeps going crazy.

You need to be competitive with schools like TAMU, Bama and UGA in the DL arms race so you can’t be burning $2 million on a bust high school QB.

If a high school QB costs 2 million, what do you think a legitimate P5 starting caliber QB is going to cost?

 

[DMoney]

If a high school QB costs 2 million, what do you think a legitimate P5 starting caliber QB is going to cost?

Probably more but you know what you’re getting. I don’t want to be holding the bag for Shea Patterson.

 

[Cane Tankerous]

This will always be the ingredients , it will never change.

with a ****** DL or a ****** OL, you can't win.

championships in college and nfl are full of JAG QB's (poor Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton, etc)

As far as most important between OL and DL, I go back and forth, so I'll call it:

Tie 1. DL and OL

3. QB

4. Special Teams (in fact, field goal kickers all by themselves win or lose many games each year)

5. Every other position group

After remembering UVA last year and Baxa ruining 2019, I'm tempted to switch #3 with #4 and put special teams ahead of QB.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.local10.com/sports/2019/10/19/hurricanes-miss-3-short-field-goals-lose-to-georgia-tech-in-overtime/%3foutputType=amp

Former Hurricanes kicker Bubba Baxa finds transfer destination

So, in a way, it’s as if the Miami Hurricanes traded kicker Bubba Baxa for quarterback D’Eriq King. The UM kicker of the past two seasons announced on Friday night that Houston will be …

www.sun-sentinel.com

miami hurricane loses field goal - Google Search

www.google.com

 

[calinative umstudent]

If a high school QB costs 2 million, what do you think a legitimate P5 starting caliber QB is going to cost?

Great Qbs are worth 15-20% of "the salary cap" easily. So if the cap is $20m, thats $4m. Now you can choose to spend $1m on a QB every year - good enough to get top 5-10 QB recruits for sure, but not top 3. Or You can just spend $3.5M of that on THE GUY, and then $250k on projects yearly (like a Jacurri Brown). And Maybe one of them develops...

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Without reading the entire thread, is the argument that a QB is more important than a defensive lineman (singular) or a good d-line overall?

I think the thread was originally about valuing positions out of high school relative to NIL, if you operate with a NIL salary cap (10 mil per year for example).

Here's how I would rank positions out of high school in terms of where I would prioritize my NIL money (from highest NIL down)

1. War Daddy NT
2. DT
3. DE
4. LB
5. WR
6. QB
7. RB
8. CB
9. OT
10. TE
11. C
12. S
13. OG
14. K/P

 

[cway313]

I think the thread was originally about valuing positions out of high school relative to NIL, if you operate with a NIL salary cap (10 mil per year for example).

Here's how I would rank positions out of high school in terms of where I would prioritize my NIL money (from highest NIL down)

1. War Daddy NT
2. DT
3. DE
4. LB
5. WR
6. QB
7. RB
8. CB
9. OT
10. TE
11. C
12. S
13. OG
14. K/P

 

[Hurracanes]

I made this thread ten years ago and it's still true. Defensive line is the most important position for championships.

Bad QBs win titles. Look at Georgia this year and some of the other teams on this list. Even bad coaches win titles. But teams need great defensive linemen to win titles. It's the separator and the most expensive commodity. WR has been extremely important lately, but the importance of DL goes back decades.

Miami 2001- William Joseph (1st), Vince Wilfork (1st), Jerome McDougle (1st), Andrew Williams (3rd)
OSU 2002- Will Smith (1st), Kenny Peterson (3rd), Tim Anderson (3rd), Darrion Scott (3rd)
USC 2003- Keneche Udeze (1st), Mike Patterson (1st), Shaun Cody (2nd), Frostee Rucker (3rd)
LSU 2003- Marcus Spears, (1st) Kyle Williams, (5th- All Pro), Marquise Hill (2nd)
USC 2004 - Mike Patterson (1st), Shaun Cody (2nd), Frostee Rucker (3rd)
Texas 2005- Brian Orapko (1st), Tim Crowder (2nd), Brian Robison (4th)
Alabama 2006- Derrick Harvey (1st), Jarvis Moss (1st), Ray McDonald (3rd)
LSU 2007- Tyson Jackson (1st), Glenn Dorsey (1st)
Florida 2008- Carlos Dunlap (2nd), Jermaine Cunningham (2nd)
Alabama 2009- Marcell Dareus (1st), Terrance Cody (2nd)
Auburn 2010- Nick Fairley (1st)
Alabama 2011-2012- Courtney Upshaw (2nd), Jesse Williams (5th), Damion Square (8-year pro), Josh Chapman (5th), Ed Stinson (5th)
FSU 2013- Eddie Goldman (2nd), Timmy Jernigan (2), Mario Edwards (2), DeMarcus Walker (2nd)
OSU 2014- Joey Bosa (1), Adolphus Washington (3), Michael Bennett (6)
Alabama 2015- Jonathan Allen (1st), A'Shawn Robinson (2), Jarran Reed (2), Daron Payne (1), Dalvin Tomlinson (2)
Clemson 2016- Christian Wilkins (1), Dexter Lawrence (1), Clelin Ferrell (1), Carlos Watkins (4)
Alabama 2017- Daron Payne (1), Raekwon Davis (2nd), Quinnen Williams (1st), Da'Shawn Hand (4),
Clemson 2018- Clelin Ferrell (1), Christian Wilkins (1), Dexter Lawrence (1), Austin Bryant (4)
LSU 2019- K'Lavon Chaisson (1), Tyler Shelvin (4), Rashard Lawrence (4), Neil Farrell Jr. (4th)
Alabama 2020- Will Anderson (future Top 5 pick), Christian Barmore (2), Phidarian Mathis (2nd)
Georgia 2021- Travon Walker (1st), Jordan Davis (1st), Devonte Wyatt (1st), Jalen Carter (future 1st), Nolan Smith (future 1st)

The common link among champions

As Miami gets further and further away from its glory days, a question dawned on me: What is the common thread among national champions? In other words, what is keeping Miami from the top? One theory is that it's quarterback play. But AJ McCarron just won a title, and Matt Mauck and Greg...

www.canesinsight.com

I remember that thread and you specifically highlighted the importance of the DT position. Golden wasn’t delivered in the recruiting trail but evidently neither was Díaz.

 

[Hurracanes]

Clemson had the #2 Defense in the Nation last year, why didn’t they win the ACC/ make the playoffs?

QB play...

They still win 10 games and have won plenty of titles with elite defensive play. Exception, not rule.

 

[grover]

I’m with taking a development QB like TVD and Brown, guys who would will be 10% what a top 3 QB in the class commands if they were in the 2023 and beyond classes. You only need to hit on one every three years. Put the money in a portal QB if you strikeout.