Key stat on pass defense

[brock]

I'm not in the group who freaks out when a corner gives up a play in tight coverage. Anyone who watches enough football the last few years knows that well executed 50/50 balls are tough to stop. LSU made a living on those last year. What bothers me is when I see receivers running into empty zone voids with no reroute, no communication and no urgency, or defenders dropping off well beyond the sticks leaving giant cushions underneath, and then reacting late to close on throws.

The corner issues are way overblown while the scheme enables tons of free yards to the opponent. Compare the Canes/Bucs to the Dolphins/Bearcats and you'll see giant ideological and schematic differences wrt zone vs man, press vs off, 0-man pressure vs 2/3 deep zone pressure. Miami needs to recruit better corners but they also need to find a DC with the balls to challenge college QBs and WRs to beat man pressure.

As a Bucs and canes fan I obviously feel your pain. Sad to say but it’s even worse for the Bucs with guys wide open than Miami and it’s alarming lol

 

[P-Tizzle]

I don’t care what numbers you want to throw around, this secondary does not pass the eye test. There isn’t currently an elite player among them. Will that change? Yes, Couch will be elite. He has “it”. Ivey, Blades, Bubba, Hall, and Carter aren’t it. And coaching must take a lot of the blame. University of Miami, in one of the BEST recruiting areas EVER for DBs, and our only “elite” DB is a FR? That’s blasphemy and punishable by death.

 

[305407cane]

is there a stat for how many times wide open WR dropped passes versus a team?

Miami has let people run wide open and been lucky teams have dropped a crazy amount of passes or QB’s sucked like UAB and PITT and couldn’t event throw the ball.

no way to spin it. This defense is average.

In fairness we have dropped passes also.

 

[Go Canes!!]

I don’t care what numbers you want to throw around, this secondary does not pass the eye test. There isn’t currently an elite player among them. Will that change? Yes, Couch will be elite. He has “it”. Ivey, Blades, Bubba, Hall, and Carter aren’t it. And coaching must take a lot of the blame. University of Miami, in one of the BEST recruiting areas EVER for DBs, and our only “elite” DB is a FR? That’s blasphemy and punishable by death.

If you die, you die.

 

[Go Canes!!]

is there a stat for how many times wide open WR dropped passes versus a team?

Miami has let people run wide open and been lucky teams have dropped a crazy amount of passes or QB’s sucked like UAB and PITT and couldn’t event throw the ball.

no way to spin it. This defense is average.

Really? We area going to start counting plays teams DON'T make?

 

[HighSeas]

As a Bucs and canes fan I obviously feel your pain. Sad to say but it’s even worse for the Bucs with guys wide open than Miami and it’s alarming lol

Everything I said last season and offseason has come to fruition:

Jameis>Brady in this offense. If you're gonna run deep drop vertical pass concepts at least get a guy who has some mobility and sturdiness in the pocket and aggressively attacks downfield. Instead we have the worst of both worlds with Brady throwing picks downfield AND checking down to these garbage backs when guys are open downfield. And that's with the OL pass protecting at an elite level (besides most recent Saints game) vs last year where it was hit or miss.

WR mistakes are a huge problem in this archaic static complex scheme, contributing to a lot of INTs and stalled drives. Again, imagine if Jameis had AB, Gronk and this version of Scotty Miller last year instead of Bobo Wilson, Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman stinking the first half of the season, etc.

Inexplicable failure to add a competent pass catching RB. **** even Deejay Dallas would be a godsend on this team.

Bowles is overrated trash. Like Diaz/Baker he has a reputation for being aggressive when in reality he's a wuss who's obsessed with soft zone coverage and never adjusts. I said that last year after the Giants and Saints (with Teddy) games and caught so much flack from idiots on twitter and on here. Well now that the team is nationally relevant with Brady and PewterReport hired a real analyst in Jon Ledyard people are becoming aware.

 

[BoxingRobes]

My favorite stat to evaluate pass defense is Yards per PA. Because it is adjusted per attempt, it doesn't penalize teams for scoring a lot of points and forcing opponents to pass.

Since 2011, three of the national champions finished #1 overall in Yards per PA. Three more were Top 10. The remaining three were Top 25. None of the champions fell past 25th. In the five D'Onofrio years, we averaged a ranking of 63rd. In the past four Manny years, we've averaged a ranking of 18th.

Miami is currently ranked 28th. That is outside of the championship threshold but, surprisingly, #1 in the ACC. Two of the toughest tests (UNC and Wake Forest) are coming up. Miami has already played three Top 30 offenses in yards per PA (Clemson, Louisville and VT).

This isn't to say we're good enough in the back end. We clearly aren't. We lack speed, athleticism and ball skills. The elite teams are on another level. But the numbers tell me we aren't that far away. We just need a couple true impact, Day 1-2 type guys to put us over the top.

You also need better coaching.

Miami's top 8 (top 3 corners - Blades, Couch, Ivey, top 3 safeties -Bolden, Hall, Carter, Frierson+Smith) average - per 247 - is a .9201. That is a solid 4-star player on average.

I'd hypothesize of the Top 25 in that stat, Miami's average player on 247 is in the Top 10 (if you want to do the math, be my guest, it might even be close to the Top 5). Getting Jason Marshall and whatnot would be nice and should be the standard, but if you need Top 5 talent to simply get Top 25 results (in a season that is absolutely a wash to measure something like this tbf), something else is a problem. I like Banda's recruiting for the most part...but the coaching between Rumph and Banda leaves a lot to be desired.

I've said for years, I don't really like the scheme we run either. Its just not for me. I also don't really agree with what Manny sees in scheme fits (this is especially noticeable in who we recruit at linebacker)...but it is what it is. Manny's defense is nice and all, but its really predicated on getting teams behind schedule at some point in a drive, which is driven a lot by luck based metrics (turnovers for example).

 

[BoxingRobes]

Agree with this. The point wasn't to celebrate the number. I just think we tend to overreact to pass defense because it looks so bad when one of our corners can't find the ball. Teams around the country are getting smoked in the air. We're not great, but we aren't so bad to justify bringing in average Portal corners. We need impact guys.

Overall, we are what the stats say we are: a decent defense in that 35-45 range. There are many reasons, but I think run defense (51st in YPC after finishing 10th last year) is the biggest culprit. We lost two high-quality college LBs and replaced them with a subpar group.

Losing our two best defensive players...Rousseau and Shaq have been really evident this year. We're not producing sacks at a rate we are accustom to under Diaz and run defense has been mid at best.

 

[Juancane]

Ridiculous assertion. He’d be more or less the same player he is here. That’s my opinion.

Our safeties have generally played above their projection or talent measurables the last few years (Jaquan Johnson, Sheldrick Redwine) but it’s nice to make up fantasy hot takes.

It is not ALL coaching at all.

Sometimes people don’t have the talent, the work ethic, the motivation, or combination thereof, even though they were highly rated coming out of high school.

Sometimes it just doesn’t click, it doesn’t matter what program it is.

And sometimes it actually is the coaching. So you’re so sure it’s the coaching and he’s not being coached up, but he would have at Alabama? He’d be a star at Alabama?

Tell me what is it about him that is not being developed?

You don’t even know, you’re just pulling that opinion straight out of your ***.

I mean you are just as easily making **** up you don’t know. How the heck do you that being in a more demanding environment around better players with higher expectations doesn’t push him more? I don’t know that it does, but you certainly don’t know that it doesn’t.

 

[LuCane]

Everything I said last season and offseason has come to fruition:

Jameis>Brady in this offense. If you're gonna run deep drop vertical pass concepts at least get a guy who has some mobility and sturdiness in the pocket and aggressively attacks downfield. Instead we have the worst of both worlds with Brady throwing picks downfield AND checking down to these garbage backs when guys are open downfield. And that's with the OL pass protecting at an elite level (besides most recent Saints game) vs last year where it was hit or miss.

WR mistakes are a huge problem in this archaic static complex scheme, contributing to a lot of INTs and stalled drives. Again, imagine if Jameis had AB, Gronk and this version of Scotty Miller last year instead of Bobo Wilson, Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman stinking the first half of the season, etc.

Inexplicable failure to add a competent pass catching RB. **** even Deejay Dallas would be a godsend on this team.

Bowles is overrated trash. Like Diaz/Baker he has a reputation for being aggressive when in reality he's a wuss who's obsessed with soft zone coverage and never adjusts. I said that last year after the Giants and Saints (with Teddy) games and caught so much flack from idiots on twitter and on here. Well now that the team is nationally relevant with Brady and PewterReport hired a real analyst in Jon Ledyard people are becoming aware.

You also have a Corner who, even having only watched 4-5 of your games this season, stands the **** out as a marked man. It's seemingly worse than any situation we have at DB. And, that's saying something.

 

[HighSeas]

You also have a Corner who, even having only watched 4-5 of your games this season, stands the **** out as a marked man. It's seemingly worse than any situation we have at DB. And, that's saying something.

You mean Jamel Dean? Yeah chalk that one up as a resounding W for my scouting. I was appalled when the Bucs took him in the 2nd - he's the stiffest most high-cut corner I've ever seen at a decent level of football. He was my least favorite Bucs pick since Dexter Jackson.

PFF loved him for a stretch last year and this year because when he's in press in the right matchup he can just turn and run with guys and use his length+athleticism to bat a ton of balls. But put him in off-man or zone where he has to defend 2-way gos or double moves and he gets exposed time and time again. The scheme isn't doing him any favors but his athletic limitations are obvious and teams have finally caught on.

Sean Murphy-Bunting has also been horrible this year as the slot corner after a decent 2019. But I did like his traits when I scouted him. His ball skills are poor and it's snowballed for him mentally after giving up some tight catches to start the year. Again he's a poor fit for a zone-heavy scheme. He needs to get his hands on guys and just trust his movement skills to stay with them. It's a lot like Ivey where his eye discipline and reads suck so he freezes and brainfarts in off coverage.

 

[Mr954]

Man like I said Manny best defense was Al Golden players. Top players drafted under Banda and Manny were Al Golden Players... Redwin was always a Safety Banda didn't get him drafted. He was a Corner who could cover, and tackle switching to Safety. He had good speed at the combine as well. Banda gets no credit from Al Golden players it shows everyday Al Golden was a better recruiter and developer. All this Banda talk is ridiculous.

Manny scheme is the problem too much thinking on the back end. Its not a talent issue. We need to play to our strengths. I know Manny/Banda/Baker don't know how to coach based on the Virginia Tech game.

You had a Quarterback who had WRs who probably wouldn't even start if COVID didn't happen, A Quarterback who didn't go through his reads fast enough, and was basically a better runner than passer.


Blitz, Blitz, and Blitz again that's what we should've did all game. The fact they stayed in the game that long was ridiculous.

Dude couldn't even throw. We're always in a dog fight with bad teams smh.

 

[plantcity3]

As a Bucs and canes fan I obviously feel your pain. Sad to say but it’s even worse for the Bucs with guys wide open than Miami and it’s alarming lol

Everything I said last season and offseason has come to fruition:

Jameis>Brady in this offense. If you're gonna run deep drop vertical pass concepts at least get a guy who has some mobility and sturdiness in the pocket and aggressively attacks downfield. Instead we have the worst of both worlds with Brady throwing picks downfield AND checking down to these garbage backs when guys are open downfield. And that's with the OL pass protecting at an elite level (besides most recent Saints game) vs last year where it was hit or miss.

WR mistakes are a huge problem in this archaic static complex scheme, contributing to a lot of INTs and stalled drives. Again, imagine if Jameis had AB, Gronk and this version of Scotty Miller last year instead of Bobo Wilson, Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman stinking the first half of the season, etc.

Inexplicable failure to add a competent pass catching RB. **** even Deejay Dallas would be a godsend on this team.

Bowles is overrated trash. Like Diaz/Baker he has a reputation for being aggressive when in reality he's a wuss who's obsessed with soft zone coverage and never adjusts. I said that last year after the Giants and Saints (with Teddy) games and caught so much flack from idiots on twitter and on here. Well now that the team is nationally relevant with Brady and PewterReport hired a real analyst in Jon Ledyard people are becoming aware.

 

[LuCane]

You mean Jamel Dean? Yeah chalk that one up as a resounding W for my scouting. I was appalled when the Bucs took him in the 2nd - he's the stiffest most high-cut corner I've ever seen at a decent level of football. He was my least favorite Bucs pick since Dexter Jackson.

PFF loved him for a stretch last year and this year because when he's in press in the right matchup he can just turn and run with guys and use his length+athleticism to bat a ton of balls. But put him in off-man or zone where he has to defend 2-way gos or double moves and he gets exposed time and time again. The scheme isn't doing him any favors but his athletic limitations are obvious and teams have finally caught on.

Sean Murphy-Bunting has also been horrible this year as the slot corner after a decent 2019. But I did like his traits when I scouted him. His ball skills are poor and it's snowballed for him mentally after giving up some tight catches to start the year. Again he's a poor fit for a zone-heavy scheme. He needs to get his hands on guys and just trust his movement skills to stay with them. It's a lot like Ivey where his eye discipline and reads suck so he freezes and brainfarts in off coverage.

Don't know if you've gotten into the 2021 draft yet, but I'm curious about your LB analysis of Micah Parsons. Specifically, in the context of the Dolphins' current scheme.

 

[PSU Cane]

My favorite stat to evaluate pass defense is Yards per PA. Because it is adjusted per attempt, it doesn't penalize teams for scoring a lot of points and forcing opponents to pass.

Since 2011, three of the national champions finished #1 overall in Yards per PA. Three more were Top 10. The remaining three were Top 25. None of the champions fell past 25th. In the five D'Onofrio years, we averaged a ranking of 63rd. In the past four Manny years, we've averaged a ranking of 18th.

Miami is currently ranked 28th. That is outside of the championship threshold but, surprisingly, #1 in the ACC. Two of the toughest tests (UNC and Wake Forest) are coming up. Miami has already played three Top 30 offenses in yards per PA (Clemson, Louisville and VT).

This isn't to say we're good enough in the back end. We clearly aren't. We lack speed, athleticism and ball skills. The elite teams are on another level. But the numbers tell me we aren't that far away. We just need a couple true impact, Day 1-2 type guys to put us over the top.

I too like that yards per attempt. Total defense can be skewed by poor offensive production (or quick scores) and tempo increasing total plays but yards per play is a good indicator how a team is doing play to play.

However, as much as that's a good stat for Manny/Baker, these defensive stats are not:
71st in 3rd down completion percentage (43/74 for 58.1%) - 32 of those 3rd down completions resulted in a 1st downs
54th in 3rd down QB rating allowed
64th in INT/game

Now the run D isn't helping things at 56th with 4.11 ypc being givne up, but this thread is about the pass D.

You HAVE to be able to get off the field, especially when you run tempo or score quickly as this offense has at times. This defense has become incredibly predictable, very passive on the back-end with LB/striker blitzes you can see coming from a mile away. Many seasoned posters on this board can call the plays pre-snap. You can say we don't have the athletes, LB play is below average, etc......but then it's up to the coaches to coach kids up to their potential, disguise things a little more, use players to their strengths, break trends and tweak the scheme. You might want to recruit a few more cover guys in the process.

 

[HighSeas]

I've always been high on Carlton but off-coverage against a WR with wiggle is not his strong suit. I'll take him in press on any boundary X WR including Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Nuk, etc.

Don't know if you've gotten into the 2021 draft yet, but I'm curious about your LB analysis of Micah Parsons. Specifically, in the context of the Dolphins' current scheme.

I've been scouting skill players heavily for Dynasty leagues. I only gave Parsons a cursory glance with 1 game film and was wowed by how his athleticism translates to all aspects of the position. I didn't have the same impression of Isaiah Simmons who is straight-linish and struggles with conventional aspects of the position. He had his best game last week though. Clearly he excels as a run and hit blitzer and in shallow zones.

I know the Belichick tree values versatility and execution from LBs and edge players. I'll study Parsons more to give a better answer.

 

[LuCane]

I've been scouting skill players heavily for Dynasty leagues. I only gave Parsons a cursory glance with 1 game film and was wowed by how his athleticism translates to all aspects of the position. I didn't have the same impression of Isaiah Simmons who is straight-linish and struggles with conventional aspects of the position. He had his best game last week though. Clearly he excels as a run and hit blitzer and in shallow zones.

I know the Belichick tree values versatility and execution from LBs and edge players. I'll study Parsons more to give a better answer.

The last line is what's particularly interesting to me. In Flores' system - and I hate to only view a player for a single system, but scheme fits matter - he can potentially be used for multiple roles. I've only begun to watch his games, but he has what it takes to fill, and also provide some value off the edge. I'd like to see what he's got in pass coverage. And, would love your opinion, whenever you get the chance to see more of his games, on that aspect. There's a good chance Houston's 1st round selection (going to the Phins) ends up in a place where Micah would be great value.

 

[HighSeas]

The last line is what's particularly interesting to me. In Flores' system - and I hate to only view a player for a single system, but scheme fits matter - he can potentially be used for multiple roles. I've only begun to watch his games, but he has what it takes to fill, and also provide some value off the edge. I'd like to see what he's got in pass coverage. And, would love your opinion, whenever you get the chance to see more of his games, on that aspect. There's a good chance Houston's 1st round selection (going to the Phins) ends up in a place where Micah would be great value.

Trey Lance and Zach Wilson would also be great values in that range. I think Tua can develop into an average ball distributor - like a more athletic Cousins - but if he doesn't show more promise you have to consider taking superior prospects (imo), and selling Tua for perhaps a late 1st.

 

[ALLoverCANE]

is there a stat for how many times wide open WR dropped passes versus a team?

Miami has let people run wide open and been lucky teams have dropped a crazy amount of passes or QB’s sucked like UAB and PITT and couldn’t event throw the ball.

no way to spin it. This defense is average.

This is incredibly silly.

But yes, I'm sure you can find that stat (probably on PFF). It would be totally meaningless unless you compared it to other teams' opponents' drops.

Sometimes your opponents have a good game, sometimes they don't. That's just football. NC State made very good, tough plays vs our defense, for example. That type of stuff evens out over the course of the season.

 

[Dwinstitles]

He prolly would of transferred like Burgess Becker whatever his name was. Gurvans hips and speed look real bad he prolly would of got passed up at bama. I didn't think he was this bad he was my favorite player on defense alot of it is coaching as well I agree....but when that guy from VT ran by him it made me reevaluate him as a player cause that's not coaching.

Adding to my own post lol but it makes u realize that Saban just stopped pursuing Hall when he was locked in. Jobe was locked in but Saban wanted him badly....feels like we got played