While some will not like to hear this, Miami actually has a very real chance of being in that Elite group again. There are four primary reasons:
1. Covid has allowed Miami to land Elite locals that have family members that want them to stay home. This has also helped us land Portal kids as well. To compound matters, Covid forced the NCAA to allow kids to play 2020 without counting AND allow seniors to return without counting towards the 85. Thus, Miami could be playing with over 90 kids while we haven't played with over 80 kids since 2012 and we will likely play over 80 kids for a long long time with the changes coming(see #2).
2. Speaking of the portal, it has helped Miami over the last 2-3 years and that could actually look like a small impact IF the NCAA votes to allow one time transfers. Free Agency could be here to stay. Thus, kids that Miami missed out on due to "bags" or "I want to leave South Florida" could end up becoming available for Miami via the Portal literally days after signing AND they can play that year. This will change the bag game to be more of a bagS game with kids getting less money up-front instead it will get spread out over the four years. This is a very good thing for Miami as Miami is already well-positioned for the bagS (spread out over four years) game.
3. BagS- Miami may never have the booster networks like Clemson, OSU, Bama... BUT Miami has something most of the other colleges don't have. Miami is located in a top market. When July hits and kids can legally start making money from their likeness, these kids can pull in some good funds. If done right, this could very well rival anything boosters are willing to pay. UM needs to fully leverage this as I expect they will at least try.
4. To compound matters: Covid is going to allow teams to play with up to 110 kids on ships in 2021(assuming 25 seniors all returned). For schools to sign a normal class for the '22 class, they are going to have to push a bunch of kids out the door! 110 to 60 kids = 50 kids have to leave a school to sign 25! In a normal year, most schools play with 80-85 kids and have 20-25 depart. Miami due to sanctions (yes the cloud) has been playing with 70-79 kids for 8 years even though sanctions ended 5 years ago. It is just hard to get back to 85 within the current rules. Thus, Miami has moved 8 kids from walk-on to ships! This will give Miami 14 potential seats for the 22 class before any additional departures. This could all be mute IF the NCAA realizes how bad things are going to be in '22 and '23. Yes, this could have that long of a tail ('23 class impacted). With 130 FBS teams, we are talking thousands of kids that could be pushed to lower schools because elite programs can't sign 25 but only 10-15 kids. To get to 10-15 kids, the portal will be FULL (already at 400+) of FBS level kids looking for a good landing spot.
This is just the landing talented/elite kids part of the equation.
On the coaching side, UM has positioned itself pretty well all things considered and I'm not a fan of our AD. I'm not happy with missing out on an Elite DC like Brown or Steele but Miami didn't have to give Manny an extension and we upgraded the D staff. Thus, IF Manny falls flat on his face in '22 the school can move on to a new coach and most coaches will see the massive opportunity I've stated above.
The last piece, UM has an ACC issue that isn't easy to fix. D-Money said we have to pass UNC which isn't as simple as you would think when the ACC loves UNC and hates Miami. Miami's best chance is to win on the tough road with the hopes of getting an offer to join another conference. The ACC's revenue share SUCKS! The ACC's refs SUCK! The ACC's schedule always favors Duke and UNC! Going Independent is not likely an option. Going to the SEC isn't likely to happen. Going to the Big12 would Suck for travel. Big10 maybe a little better but not by much. One way to solve this is to work with the newer ACC schools (BC, Syracuse, Miami, VT, Pitt, UL, ND) and attempt to pull FSU, GT along to form a new conference OR force major changes with the founding schools from 1953 (Clemson, UNC, Wake, Duke, UVA, NCSU). The ACC really needs to land ND as a full-time football school to take the revenue to the top. The ACC also needs to stop working against their new schools that can have elite football programs. Schools with Nattys: ND-12, Miami-5, Pitt-5, FSU-3, Clemson-3, GT-3, Syracuse-1. Clemson is the only founding member with a natty yet the ACC hasn't helped the other schools at all.