How can this be - the data

[DMoney]

From 2005-2019, Miami produced 9 first rounders and 8 Pro Bowlers. Only nine other schools met these criteria.

All nine of those schools either won or played for a national championship during that time frame. Miami only won two bowl games: the MPC Computers Bowl and the Russell Athletic Bowl.

We have not been able to convert our talent into college stars.

 

[SWFLHurricane]

From 2005-2019, Miami produced 9 first rounders and 8 Pro Bowers.

Only nine other schools met these criteria. Every single one of them won or played for a national championship during that time frame.

We have not been able to convert our talent into college stars.

Because of Partly Cloudy too Cloudy coaching...and if you're Evaluations are ***, everything follows suit....And God forbid we run the wrong scheme with talent suited for a different scheme...then you've got a Glop of Sh*t...

 

[Ethnicsands]

Jaquan Johnson and Gerald Willis made All-American teams.

But, in general, the biggest issues are:

(1) AAs come from teams having good seasons, which we haven’t had; and

(2) AAs come from systems that produce numbers. Offensively, we have not had that in two decades. On defense, we only had that recently. That is why Willis and Quan made AA teams and why Rousseau will be on every preseason AA team.

I counted all consensus all americans. No second team kids or random publication kids. Pure and objective. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/awards/all-america-2010-2019.html. No UM player has been a first team AA since 2005. https://hurricanesports.com/news/2011/3/2/205548280.aspx. Hurricane sports doesn’t list Jaquan or Willis.

That’s 14 years, plenty of time for someone to make it. 83 schools had kids who made it! They didn’t all have good teams or systems, though perhaps the outright putridity of our systems held kids back. Still, Ed Oliver managed to shine at Houston despite Dorito, so if a kid is good enough, it shows through.

In case anyone thinks Willis or Jaquan should have been on that list: the “18 DL were Ferrell and Wilkins from Clemson, Oliver from Houston and Q. Williams from Alabama. Williams won the Outland and was a unanimous AA. Oliver was a 3x first team AA and won Outland in ‘17. Ferrell won the Hendricks Award in ‘18 and was a 2x first team AA. Wilkins was a unanimous AA, 2x first team AA, amd won the Willis Trohpy in ‘17 and Campbell Trophy in ‘18. The ‘17 Safeties ahead of Jaquan were Minkah Fitzpatrick who won the Thorpe and DeShon Elliott was was a unanimous AA. Josh Jackson and Denzel Ward were the Cbs.

The answer to this degree of face plant isn’t one thing. It’s everything. But it surely includes getting better top level talent.

 

[DMoney]

The answer to this degree of face plant isn’t one thing. It’s everything. But it surely includes getting better top level talent.

See post above. Only ten schools had 9 first rounders and 8 Pro Bowlers during that time period. That’s impact talent. Those schools all played for championships and I presume had multiple AAs.

We are always the outlier.

 

[Ethnicsands]

All Americans are predominantly found on teams willing to pay the going rate four the top recruits.

this is an excuse. Look at the list. 83 teams had All Americans on that list. And MANY teams on that list ain’t out-recruiting Miami for kids.

 

[pacusmc]

I counted all consensus all americans. No second team kids or random publication kids. Pure and objective. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/awards/all-america-2010-2019.html. No UM player has been a first team AA since 2005. https://hurricanesports.com/news/2011/3/2/205548280.aspx. Hurricane sports doesn’t list Jaquan or Willis.

That’s 14 years, plenty of time for someone to make it. 83 schools had kids who made it! They didn’t all have good teams or systems, though perhaps the outright putridity of our systems held kids back. Still, Ed Oliver managed to shine at Houston despite Dorito, so if a kid is good enough, it shows through.

In case anyone thinks Willis or Jaquan should have been on that list: the “18 DL were Ferrell and Wilkins from Clemson, Oliver from Houston and Q. Williams from Alabama. Williams won the Outland and was a unanimous AA. Oliver was a 3x first team AA and won Outland in ‘17. Ferrell won the Hendricks Award in ‘18 and was a 2x first team AA. Wilkins was a unanimous AA, 2x first team AA, amd won the Willis Trohpy in ‘17 and Campbell Trophy in ‘18. The ‘17 Safeties ahead of Jaquan were Minkah Fitzpatrick who won the Thorpe and DeShon Elliott was was a unanimous AA. Josh Jackson and Denzel Ward were the Cbs.

The answer to this degree of face plant isn’t one thing. It’s everything. But it surely includes getting better top level talent.

Do you seriously believe that not one player in that time span didn’t deserve or wasn’t better than any of those dudes that were AA. Do you really think that with all the draft picks we’ve had there wasn’t one player that was clearly better than any of those AA? How many first round or day one picks did we produce in that time span? How many of those AA on that list were first rounders? All of them? Half of them?

 

[skyman]

From 2005-2019, Miami produced 9 first rounders and 8 Pro Bowers. Only nine other schools met these criteria.

All nine of those schools either won or played for a national championship during that time frame. Miami only won two bowl games: the MPC Computers Bowl and the Russell Athletic Bowl.

We have not been able to convert our talent into college stars.

Because of little investment and cheap corching.. You get what you pay for.

 

[Ethnicsands]

See post above. Only ten schools had 9 first rounders and 8 Pro Bowlers during that time period. That’s impact talent. Those schools all played for championships and I presume had multiple AAs.

We are always the outlier.

Isn’t it relevant that 5 of the 9 first rounders you mention were ‘08 and prior? We’ve had just 4 In the past 12 years. Of them, Burns, Flowers and Dorsett have not had first round careers. We’ll see about Njoku.

And we did the pro outcomes topic recently on this site. Pro bowl, in any case, is a popularity context. All pro is more exacting. We have produced zero All Pros in ages. The all pro seasons we have had are from guys such as Olsen and Campbell who came to UM under Coker. The cloest we’ve come to an all pro season since Coker left is Vernon, who made second team once, and was a shannon kid.

The All America list is telling us we are deceiving ourselves on the type of talent we have had. Who was our ‘impact talent’ the past decade? Duke? Flowers? A. Bailey? L. Miller? Miller made a bro bowl (not all pro). The others nada.

The truth is, our elite talent has been way below our history, even counting the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s as our history, Meanwhile, our rosters have been riddled with holes, often empty scholarships, inexperience, lack of depth and imbalance. Combine all that and you can see one reason why we’ve surprised our fans negatively for ages.

 

[The Franchise]

Excellent post, Ethel.

I wonder how many of those AAs were seniors because it seems like the few top level players we have signed have hit the road early.

Additionally, I suspect much of it has to do with us running horrible systems that didn't allow any players to put up numbers. When you're running a slow, plodding offense, and others are going high-octane, you will struggle to show off anyone's stats. And stats are a huge part of these AA teams. Same with defense. With Manure's splash system, we should start seeing some AAs pop up, as guys will put up stats.

And then we go back to our evaluations discussion. We've generally done a very poor job evaluating since Booch split.

 

[Canedog]

Now, and for quite a few yrs it is....If you think Butch didn't have to go up against the SEC Henchmen, and others in the same Mold your extremely kidding yourself...Not only did Butch, (And JJ before him) have to deal with Elite Henchmen, but in Butch's case, having to sit down in a Kids living room with the Kids parents...and sell them why he should come to UM, even though the school was just Rocked with Sanctions, Murder (Barnes)...No Bowl...No TV...Public Scorn...etc...Bottomline.....It's ALL about Evaluations and Proper Coaching....Without those...your Dead in the Water....

Yes, but Butch was a Gawd. Butch was an exception to the general rule.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Maybe Calais Campbell and but absolutely Erik Flowers and Kenny Phillips should’ve been an AA’s. It’s a popularity hype contest 1st, the stats, then actual ability.

This year UM should finally some AA’s as long as they stay healthy in Jordan and Rousseau. They are already getting hype and have good production.

No one who watched flowers at UM can possibly think he should have been an all american. I feel like I can still see him getting a false starts and hold if I close my eyes.

Cambell’s junior year was sub-par. He didn’t deserve award mention for it and didn’t stick for his senior season.

It may be a popularity contest, but kids from Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Kent Stare have made it since we last had a kid make it.

If we’re reduced to saying Kenny Phillips got robbed, I think I can rest my case. That was a decade and a half ago. And ahead of him in ‘06 were LaRon Landry and reggie Nelson. Maybe ‘07 he should have gotten considered but KP didn’t make a ton of game changing plays - as 2 INTs in ‘07 illustrate. The guys who got credit ahead of him all had far more INTs. And ‘07 was a terrible year for our program, which didn’t help him. Hard to be an AA safety without many game changing moments on a school with a losing record thst finishes at the bottom of its conference.

 

[The Franchise]

this is an excuse. Look at the list. 83 teams had All Americans on that list. And MANY teams on that list ain’t out-recruiting Miami for kids.

I think the teams that had 1 or 2 AAs over a period of 15 years is pretty irrelevant. It sounds splashier for your argument, but to have 1 or 2 great players over the course of 15 years is meaningless. Stacking AAs like the top tier teams on your list is really all that matters.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Do you seriously believe that not one player in that time span didn’t deserve or wasn’t better than any of those dudes that were AA. Do you really think that with all the draft picks we’ve had there wasn’t one player that was clearly better than any of those AA? How many first round or day one picks did we produce in that time span? How many of those AA on that list were first rounders? All of them? Half of them?

You might want to rethink this response. But it’s been addressed elsewhere, in any case. Why don’t you tell us who from UM was so clearly deserving of AA status this past time period but got stiffed. Make the case. Tell us why they deserved it.

I don’t think it’s been an anti-UM conspiracy. Toledo and Kent State got guys on that list. We have had 4 first rounders the past 12 years. 3 of the four aren’t living up to their draft level and the fourth, too early to judge.

 

[Canedog]

this is an excuse. Look at the list. 83 teams had All Americans on that list. And MANY teams on that list ain’t out-recruiting Miami for kids.

I wasn't making excuses or even directly addressing Miami's recruiting. I was stating a fact about where all Americans are predominantly found. I'll hang up and listen to your apology off air.

 

[Ethnicsands]

I think the teams that had 1 or 2 AAs over a period of 15 years is pretty irrelevant. It sounds splashier for your argument, but to have 1 or 2 great players over the course of 15 years is meaningless. Stacking AAs like the top tier teams on your list is really all that matters.

I agree that stacking AAs is what it takes to win. And also a result of winning, I suspect. But I am trying to highlight the enormity of the achievement of no AAs in 15 years. We had AAs right through the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. We try to comfort ourselves with marginal nfl draft pick charts. We’re missing an important message when we do so. I’m trying to shed some light on it.

And it’s not meaningless statistically. It’s a response to people who say AA (or pro bowl) is so rare it shouldn’t be focused on. The math you have to consider is not the probability a kid becomes an AA, it’s the opposite - what is the probability exactly zero of the hundreds of kids we sign for well over a decade become an AA. To assess that, it absolutely is relevant that in that same time period, the majority of all CFB programs had kids become AAs, most of which programs recruited far worse than we did over this period by recruiting service rankings. It’s relevant that our whole conference save VT and us are on the list, despite our recruiting rankings being better than most of the other schools.

The chance of something not happening given enough opportunities for it to happen is a separate analysis from the chance in any instance of it happening. The odds of a kid becoming AA are low, but you still expect an AA or three when you’re talking about 14 years and several hundred kids. Which is why most schools are on the list.

 

[RangerGranger]

Miami last had an All American in 2005. That's stunning in its own right, but I thought I'd look at what happened in the years since. I tried to get it all right but probably botched a kid or two here or there, but here's what I found. From 2006 -- 2019:

- 83 different teams had at least one AA. (I’m counting AA seasons, so a kid who makes it two years in a row counts as two AA seasons for his school.)
- In Florida, FSU, UF, FAU, USF and UCF all have had one.
- In the ACC, every team other than Miami and VT have had AA s over this stretch -- viz., FSU, Clemson, Virginia, NCST, UNC, Duke, GA Tech, BC, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt

- Alabama destroys everyone else, with 35 AAs over this period. Next were Oklahoma, LSU and Ohio State with 16 each.
- After this group, the next group included Clemson, FSU, Texas, Wisconsin, Stanford, A&M and Michigan, all with 10 or more.
- In the 5-9 range, you had Oklahoma State, Florida, Baylor, USC, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia, Notre Dame and Utah (7-9 each) followed by Oregon, Arkansas, TCU, Penn State, Auburn, UCLA and Michigan St. (5-6 each).
- Schools with 3-4 each were Boston College, Arizona, Texas Tech, Tenn., Oregon St., Arizona St., Memphis, Washington, Ole Miss, Wash. St., Kentucky and Cal

- The following schools all have had 2 AAs since Miami last had one: Colorado, Purdue, Boise St., South Carolina, Illinois, Pitt, Colorado St., Kansas St., Louisville, San Diego St., Houston, NCST, Wake, Cincy, WVA, Nebraska and Duke.
- The following schools all have had an AA since Miami last had one: Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Temple, LA Tech, Kent St., Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, UCF, USF, FAU, Idaho, BYU, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Indiana, Fresno St., Syracuse, Utah State, GA Tech, Minnesota, North Carolina and Virginia.

I'm interested to hear theories on this. Our coaching and schemes may be bad, but kids from 83 schools made AA over this period! Kids from obscure schools made it.

It may be improbable that any given kid makes AA. But over 14 years, we're zero for every kid we suited up - that cannot be probable. Oklahoma St. has had 9 AAs in this period. Missouri, Iowa and Utah posted 7 each during this period. USC, which has also been bad, has had 8. UCLA had 5. Arizona and Tennessee had 4, Arizona State and Memphis had 3, as did Kentucky, California and Washington State. Illinois, Wake Forest and Duke have had 2!

I think there are a few things going on here: (a) obviously, poor evaluations left us with too little top level talent; (b) what talent we've had has too often left early, missing the chance to accomplish a lot on the field; (c) some of our kids didn't put out the effort they should have, either because they were too NFL focused on believed the hype about them that fan boards provided; and (d) our staffs didn't help put kids in a position to succeed. However, placing the explanation all on (d) sounds like deep denial when the numbers are this stark. Kids from other schools succeeded in touch circumstances.

How can it be this bad? We had 5 AAs in the 1950s, 10 in the 1960s, 10 in the 1970s, 16 in the 1980s, 18 in the 1990s and 22 from 2000--2005. Then, none. Zero. Zilch. Zip. Nada.

might not be nice, but I’m willing to admit this is because Miami has been rewarding biotch behavior. We fell so hard we’re just trying to get back to relevancy. And we’ve been toxic ever since.

I believe we have the right coaching staff to take our program to be coastal winners, but I don’t think Manny will break is out of this spell.

 

[Number1CanesFan]

There are some real differences in play for the schools you list.

Alabama should have killed it for several years as they attracted a ton of 5 star recruits during a period of sustained success. Regardless of how you feel about stars, more 5 stars should equal more AAs, even with the bust rate. Clemson should show the same pattern, but over a shorter period of time.

On the flip side is this quote, "Missouri, Iowa and Utah posted 7 each during this period." Two of those three (Iowa and Utah) have long terms staffs in place and plan on long term player development. Miami recruited a bunch of dudes who simply plan to go to "the league" as soon as possible and Miami, quite likely, sold them on that possibility. That explains a TON of draft decisions we've seen over the past decade or so as well. Dudes just come here to move on as quick as they can. And, because everyone has been sucking their d***** since age 8, they think college performance really doesn't even matter.

The real outlier, for me, is Michigan. I think they have become the new Notre Dame. They continue to recruit well because your grandparents loved them and you grew up hearing Michigan, even thought haven't won ANYTHING in your lifetime (if you are a recruit).

But the last part of my last sentence above applies to Miami as well.

I think you nailed it. Being from Iowa, I am very familiar with their recruiting and development practices.

A long term strategy is the key. Over the past 40 years Iowa has had 2 coaches!!!! Now, that is a long term strategy by the entire athletic department.

Iowa focuses on the type of player that's fits the program and their psychological concepts of team. To a fault, they don't deviate from their scheme. They tweek it here and there, but don't deviate much. They are consistently in the top half of the Big Ten which is impressive for a school in a state that only produces less than 10 D-1 football players each year. Most of whom are 3-star athletes at best.

Miami needs to find it's identity and stick with it. If Diaz is the guy to bring us back to national prominence, then you have to let him find his way and live with the consequences (i.e. loosing to FIU) for the greater good. I don't think he has the cachet of 4-5 years to right the ship. The pressure to win now is too great. This next season, whenever it begins, will be a make or break Miami career for coach Diaz.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Excellent post, Ethel.

I wonder how many of those AAs were seniors because it seems like the few top level players we have signed have hit the road early.

Additionally, I suspect much of it has to do with us running horrible systems that didn't allow any players to put up numbers. When you're running a slow, plodding offense, and others are going high-octane, you will struggle to show off anyone's stats. And stats are a huge part of these AA teams. Same with defense. With Manure's splash system, we should start seeing some AAs pop up, as guys will put up stats.

And then we go back to our evaluations discussion. We've generally done a very poor job evaluating since Booch split.

This is an important point. I mention it when we talk roster talent, and it’s a reason why the ‘nfl lists’ give a potentially misleading view of our actual talent at UM. The NFL sees potential and will assess a redshirt sophomore if he declares. If he progresses, he may look great down tje road. But does that mean he was great in college? Or that if he wasn’t, it’s anyone’s fault?

When we talk college talent, we have to really consider the roster. Not just look back and say a kid got drafted.

I think you nailed a huge reason for our lack of AAs. Our best kids don’t stick around, and we have not had the truly rare kids who make AA as a second year kid in ages.

 

[pacusmc]

You might want to rethink this response. But it’s been addressed elsewhere, in any case. Why don’t you tell us who from UM was so clearly deserving of AA status this past time period but got stiffed. Make the case. Tell us why they deserved it.

I don’t think it’s been an anti-UM conspiracy. Toledo and Kent State got guys on that list. We have had 4 first rounders the past 12 years. 3 of the four aren’t living up to their draft level and the fourth, too early to judge.

We’re talking about consensus/unanimous all Americans correct? Cause since 2005 bama has like 20 I believe and not 35. still an impressive number. But since 2005 what has been their average recruit rankings and how many more elite kids went there that never got drafted? Did every bama day one pick pan out? Did every all American play 10 years in the league?
Does every blue chip recruit become an all American. We and everyone else seem to judge UM on a different curve. We don’t t land nearly the amount of blue chip talent that the top schools do put clearly put players in the league at a higher clip than anyone that recruits at our level.
And bama doesn’t hit on every single elite recruit they land and neither does anyone else. So if 60% of the blue chip kids that they land don’t make the league or don’t go on day one they get a pass? It’s a numbers game and the top schools are getting credit for landing several elite kids at every position every year. Every time we land any 4 star we have to make all of them a day one pick or we suck and can’t develop. And if they do go to the league that have to make a second contract or we suck too.
I already put names out there njoku, jj, Brevin, Richards maybe a few more. Not all consensus AA make a second contract but quite a few last on a long time in the league. And plenty or almost all of them bounce form team to team and the vast majority aren’t HOF’ers.

 

[The Franchise]

I agree that stacking AAs is what it takes to win. And also a result of winning, I suspect. But I am trying to highlight the enormity of the achievement of no AAs in 15 years. We had AAs right through the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. We try to comfort ourselves with marginal nfl draft pick charts. We’re missing an important message when we do so. I’m trying to shed some light on it.

And it’s not meaningless statistically. It’s a response to people who say AA (or pro bowl) is so rare it shouldn’t be focused on. The math you have to consider is not the probability a kid becomes an AA, it’s the opposite - what is the probability exactly zero of the hundreds of kids we sign for well over a decade become an AA. To assess that, it absolutely is relevant that in that same time period, the majority of all CFB programs had kids become AAs, most of which programs recruited far worse than we did over this period by recruiting service rankings. It’s relevant that our whole conference save VT and us are on the list, despite our recruiting rankings being better than most of the other schools.

The chance of something not happening given enough opportunities for it to happen is a separate analysis from the chance in any instance of it happening. The odds of a kid becoming AA are low, but you still expect an AA or three when you’re talking about 14 years and several hundred kids. Which is why most schools are on the list.

When I say irrelevant, I mean irrelevant from an onfield perspective. Having 1 or 2 AA in 15 years is pretty meaningless from a football results perspective, which is all I care about. I don't care about personal accolades or draft stats really; I care about what we do with the guys we get, and if we're picking the right guys.

If 1 or 2 of our guys in 15 years had been named AAs, I don't suspect it would have affected our onfield results all that much unless it was a transcendent QB. Now, had we stacked AAs like your top tier schools, of course, it would have changed things.

Look at VT. They're in our same boat from the AA perspective, but I suspect they've won the Coastal more than any other team in that same time period you referenced.