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Cristobal and perception

who said:
I think he’s a great coach. It’s just a shot in the dark though. We’ve gotten burned going that route one too many times.

Will he be a fit culturally down here? That sort of unknown is why I am hesitant.
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That's a big part of why I don't take a firm position on anyone. Unless you're around the program and interview the guy, you'll never know if a person is a good fit.
 
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TimeBum said:
Dabo went 9-4 in year 2 with a full season. Diaz went 8-3 in year 2, and the team had Michigan State, Wagner, and Temple taken off the schedule due to Covid. If he wins 2 of 3 (odds are we win all 3) that's easily a 10 win season. And in 2019, if the offense had simply managed 28 ppg (that's paltry in cfb, below 50th percentile ), that is a 10 win team too. Understand that I'm not defending Diaz, I'm just saying if we are parsing the data to come up with the justification for giving Dabo a break, then to be fair, Diaz (or any coach for that matter) should get the same treatment. Saban was garbage in his first 3 seasons. Butch went 5-6 in year 3. You generally don't know what you have in a HC until at least year 4, which makes sense because that is when the roster should consist almost entirely of the new coach's recruits (again, this is my theory for what a businessman on the BOT might be thinking)

I've tried to isolate what X factor sets the elite programs apart. Coaching? Money? Admin support? Well, we've seen the very richest programs fail (Texas). We've seen championship winning coaches go to different programs and look like garbage (Les Miles). We've seen incompetent corches win championships (Larry Coker). We've also seen programs that had virtually no admin support or resources win multiple rings (Miami). So if I had to pick one thing that Miami could do that would turn us into a title contender again, it would be this: cheat. Instead paying a HC $7 million, get a $5 million coach and spend the other $2 million on buying 3 or 4 five star recruits per class and/or pay the top end talent to stay instead of going to the NFL. Do that 3 years in a row and by year 4 you should have a roster with at least 8 5 star recruits, which should put you in the running for a national championship. The NCAA is a toothless fraud, the only thing that matters is the conference commissioner and the acc commissioner will be grinning from ear to ear if Miami wins championships again because his bank account will have some extra zeros in it.
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Butch in Year 3 is a poor comparison. Miami was suffering from severe roster reductions from sanctions that has nothing to do with him.

The Dabo-Diaz comparision could do on and on.

Dabo is established, won 2 NCs vs Saban, and has a 141–34 record. He was never a coordiator except when interim HC/OC for six games to end the 2008 seaosn. He clearly is a CEO-type 'culture' coach as you call it. Clemson is a large, state school with boosters willing to literally buy success. Dabo convinced the school and boosters to retain him after his interim record of 3-3, mainly on his beating USCe, by his own admission.

I am willing to give Diaz a full Year 3. He needs to show considerable progress by the end of the season. The progress may not be '1 more win that last season'. This would be a shallow analytical argument. There are always close games that could have gone either way.

Last season's improvment was recognizing he needed to revamp the offense, hire a better staff, and getting a QB transfer to fit. Yeah, he was whipped by Clemson, but the Tigers lost one game the prior two seasons, won an undefeated NC, and lost a second. Could Miami have been better prepared, yes, but did not have the talent or experience to win that game. Period.

There were some nice games, like a 52-10 win over rival FSU, comeback at NC State, and gutty win at VT. However, all negated by the season-ending home humilation by UNC. Win that game and Miami plays in a NYE bowl game. The team looked unprepared and unmotivated, at home, playing for something. One of the worst lossed in team history. This is followed up by a bowl game against OkState and falling quickly behind 21-0. Again, the team looked unprepared, with about two weeks to prepare. N'Kosi almost lead a nice comeback.

Mostly? The worst decision Diaz made was naming himself DC. He believed he was the best available DC, with his scheme.

Are you sure he's a 'cuture' coach, and not a failing 'scheme guy' on the defensive side of the ball?
 
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Cribby said:
I always see ignorant comments about " Nike money" here , how about go and looking at their recruiting classes pre Mario and after he arrived and get back with me. The people hating on Mario are a lot of the same people defending manny lol. Weird,a guy that's actually building a good program with an identity and great recruiting offends y'all lol. I get it.
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I’m glad someone finally said that chit.

Chip went an absurd 46 - 7 at Oregon, while losing only 3 games in the Pac-10/12 in 4 yrs. winning the conference 3 out of 4 yrs & the division all 4 yrs.

Now I would think w/ all that winning + the boogie “Nike $$”, Oregon was recruiting top 5 classes every year. ****, at a bare minimum top 10.

2009: Ranked 30th
2010 (after a 10-3 season): Ranked 12th
2011 (after a 12-1 season): Ranked 12th
2012 (after a 12-1 season): Ranked 14th

Where was the Nike $$?

Since Cristobal (first class was 2018)
2018: Ranked 13th
2019: Ranked 7th
2020: Ranked 11th
2021: Ranked 6th

So Nike wasn’t helping Chip, who brought limelight to Oregon, but all of a sudden they’re helping Mario??

The things some in this fanbase say to defend Manny, while trashing ONE OF ITS OWN in Mario is the dumbest chit, ever.
 
Cribby said:
A few years ago you were right
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I apologize if you've answered this elsewhere, but are your doubts with Mario because he holds ill will towards the job now with how James handled the position once Richt retired, or is it because you don't foresee Miami ponying up the cash to bring him home, or is it something different, or even a combination of all of the above?

Is it naive to believe that his beef lies more with James and that if/when Diaz is gone so is James and at that point it's whether or not the admin/BoT want to dish out the money like they wanted to in the past for him?
 
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hoops156 said:
Mario is better than Manny that's.a. fact. the question is for a school that has never broken a real bank in terms of paying coaches (riChts money is like kiddie pool money for a proven p5 guy), does paying Mario (hes at 5.5 or so now I think, so say 6.5 per) bring you where you want the program to be (it'll be better than it is now, but it won't be the 80s canes or even 00s canes -- that time is gone and will never come back in todays landscape)?
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Or you can keep firing coaches every 4 or 5 years and paying out the buyout. Diaz gets canned this year after year 3 he walks away with what 6 to 8 million. Consistent +10 win seasons will increase season ticket sales around 10K. Right now the goal should be win the coastal 4 out of 5 years, win the conference 2 out of those 4 and make it to the college football playoff. If you can keep at that level, you have a chance. It is what Swinney did at Clemson. He won the conference in year 4, got embarrassed by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl, then took another 4 years to start to get through Jimbo and win the conference.
 
I'll be happy to debate anyone on Luigi as the next coming of Jimmy but with better ability to coach up the trenches in a couple months after he chokes away his typical 2 games a year due to inept late game corching but I digress.

Those of you thinking the esteemed Mrs. Jessica Cristobal is somehow our last chance at saving this program do realize she's a gringa from Georgia literally with the maiden name of "White", right? Did she like living in Miami over Bumblefuk, Oregon? Quite possibly. Is she a Cubanita from Kendall that met Luigi at UM and is yearning to return to their alma mater and the 305 before her abuela goes to the big pastelito in the sky? Not so much.
 
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Rellyrell said:
I’m glad someone finally said that chit.

Chip went an absurd 46 - 7 at Oregon, while losing only 3 games in the Pac-10/12 in 4 yrs. winning the conference 3 out of 4 yrs & the division all 4 yrs.

Now I would think w/ all that winning + the boogie “Nike $$”, Oregon was recruiting top 5 classes every year. ****, at a bare minimum top 10.

2009: Ranked 30th
2010 (after a 10-3 season): Ranked 12th
2011 (after a 12-1 season): Ranked 12th
2012 (after a 12-1 season): Ranked 14th

Where was the Nike $$?

Since Cristobal (first class was 2018)
2018: Ranked 13th
2019: Ranked 7th
2020: Ranked 11th
2021: Ranked 6th

So Nike wasn’t helping Chip, who brought limelight to Oregon, but all of a sudden they’re helping Mario??

The things some in this fanbase say to defend Manny, while trashing ONE OF ITS OWN in Mario is the dumbest chit, ever.
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Let's throw out the first year for both because it's well understood that the new head coach is typically trying to salvage a class (recruits tend to bail when a coach gets fired/retires/quits). Chip Kelly's average class for the 3 years that he had a full year to recruit and eval players (and pay them under the table) as the HC was 12.6. Cristobal's is 8. That's a whopping 4.6 spots higher. To put that in perspective, if Coach A had an average class rank of 25, and Coach B had an average class rank of 20.4; would you be shouting from the mountaintops that Coach B is far and away the superior recruiter? Mario is a good recruiter, but let's not try and act like Chip Kelly's recruiting average was consistently in the 40s while he was coach at Oregon.

There is no way to test this theory, but I suspect that if Kelly had stuck around for another 3 years and continued to have success+media attention, he would have easily been landing classes ranked in or around the top 8.
 
TimeBum said:
Let's throw out the first year for both because it's well understood that the new head coach is typically trying to salvage a class (recruits tend to bail when a coach gets fired/retires/quits). Chip Kelly's average class for the 3 years that he had a full year to recruit and eval players (and pay them under the table) as the HC was 12.6. Cristobal's is 8. That's a whopping 4.6 spots higher. To put that in perspective, if Coach A had an average class rank of 25, and Coach B had an average class rank of 20.4; would you be shouting from the mountaintops that Coach B is far and away the superior recruiter? Mario is a good recruiter, but let's not try and act like Chip Kelly's recruiting average was consistently in the 40s while he was coach at Oregon.

There is no way to test this theory, but I suspect that if Kelly had stuck around for another 3 years and continued to have success+media attention, he would have easily been landing classes ranked in or around the top 8.
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That’s fine, let’s do that; Let’s throw out the recruiting rankings for the first yr for both coaches, since that’s a transition yr. That’s more than fair.

As I’ve stated before in many threads, class rankings is a good indicator, but sometimes, class rankings can be inflated by the amount of kids taken. So let’s look at the avg composite score of both Chip & Mario as a comparison:

Chip:
2010: Composite (.8774)
2011: Composite (.8924)
2012: Composite (.8851)

Avg: .8850
This would be a class that avg. kids that are below the blue chip rating

Mario:
2019: Composite (.9060)
2020: Composite (.9011)
2021: Composite (.9236)

Avg: .9102
This would be a class that avg. kids at a blue chip rating

Any other scenarios u wanna tackle?
 
Rellyrell said:
That’s fine, let’s do that; Let’s throw out the recruiting rankings for the first yr for both coaches, since that’s a transition yr. That’s more than fair.

As I’ve stated before in many threads, class rankings is a good indicator, but sometimes, class rankings can be inflated by the amount of kids taken. So let’s look at the avg composite score of both Chip & Mario as a comparison:

Chip:
2010: Composite (.8774)
2011: Composite (.8924)
2012: Composite (.8851)

Avg: .8850
This would be a class that avg. kids that are below the blue chip rating

Mario:
2019: Composite (.9060)
2020: Composite (.9011)
2021: Composite (.9236)

Avg: .9102
This would be a class that avg. kids at a blue chip rating

Any other scenarios u wanna tackle?
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So Chip won more and did better at Oregon with less talent than Mario?
 
Rellyrell said:
That’s fine, let’s do that; Let’s throw out the recruiting rankings for the first yr for both coaches, since that’s a transition yr. That’s more than fair.

As I’ve stated before in many threads, class rankings is a good indicator, but sometimes, class rankings can be inflated by the amount of kids taken. So let’s look at the avg composite score of both Chip & Mario as a comparison:

Chip:
2010: Composite (.8774)
2011: Composite (.8924)
2012: Composite (.8851)

Avg: .8850
This would be a class that avg. kids that are below the blue chip rating

Mario:
2019: Composite (.9060)
2020: Composite (.9011)
2021: Composite (.9236)

Avg: .9102
This would be a class that avg. kids at a blue chip rating

Any other scenarios u wanna tackle?
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So you think a .0258 difference in class average proves Cristobal is a vastly superior recruiter over Kelly? Ok. We'll just have to agree to disagree there.

Oh btw, you know what Diaz's class average is? 90.3 (2020- 90.51, 2021- 90.05). If you think getting a blue chip class is the separation line, then there is no need to look for a new coach since we already have one that averages a blue chip class. If you want to get into the nitty gritty, Oregon was only 3 years removed from a 13-2 season with a playoff appearance when Cristobal was hired, which was preceded by a multi year streak of top finishes. Young players all over the country saw Oregon burst onto the national scene and are fully aware that Oregon has the nicest facilities in the country. Miami has basically had only one season of relevance (2017) since most high school kids were born and we've been a punchline for jokes about crappy stadiums, lack of fan support, and bad facilities for around 15 years. Diaz landing blue chip classes after a 6 win season is, in my opinion, a much more difficult feat than Cristobal landing a blue chip class at Oregon.

I want to emphasize again that I think Mario is an upgrade over Diaz, l'm just saying I don't think Cristobal is so superior a recruiter/coach that he brings home #6. Schiano gives you what Cristobal does, only he's more accomplished and less expensive. I think you would have a consistent 10 game winning program that would be like the Wisconsin of the ACC with either coach. Certainly respectable, but not a championship caliber program. Call me crazy, but I would prefer going high risk / high reward with a coach like Kiffin than settling in for a decade of being Wisconsin.
 
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Pentagon Cane said:
Or you can keep firing coaches every 4 or 5 years and paying out the buyout. Diaz gets canned this year after year 3 he walks away with what 6 to 8 million. Consistent +10 win seasons will increase season ticket sales around 10K. Right now the goal should be win the coastal 4 out of 5 years, win the conference 2 out of those 4 and make it to the college football playoff. If you can keep at that level, you have a chance. It is what Swinney did at Clemson. He won the conference in year 4, got embarrassed by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl, then took another 4 years to start to get through Jimbo and win the conference.
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I don't disagree with you. I am just giving you the scenario that is what the program is and always has been. we will never fully go all in like the bigger programs do from a financial perspective. its why were never in the convo for the best up and comer or even the best p5 guy. **** even a dude like mullen who is a good coach but a meh recruiter got 6+ plus to go to UF and he was their third choice after Kelly and frost.
 
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nycane said:
former players see butch in Mario. fans dont get that. I'm not in love with Mario but at this point....
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id bring Mario in but I also know we won't be recreating the 00s with Mario. hes gonna have a ceiling as a coach but well be better than we are now. we won't be Clemson good w Mario but the talent and toughness will improve (tho manny's issues as an HC really isn't the recruiting aside from LB), its the on field stuff and softness. Mario will improve the softness and hes more seasoned as an HC than manny is so **** be better on field, but I don't think hes an all world on field coach that you'd get at 6.5 plus million. at this point, just get Mario and live with what the results are (good bad or okay) but at least you tried or wait for urban to flame out and go get the Soffers to put the money they put in Liv into getting Urban here
 
For all the talk of recruiting class blue-chip averages, Miami has WRs that can't consistency catch, TEs that can't consistently catch or block, an OL that can't consistently block, LBs that can't tackle, and DBs that can't cover. Did I miss anything? Garcia and TVD haven't played so I can't add QBs that can't consistently read and throw a pass. D'King was a finished product when he arrived. He is what he is.

Maybe move on to who's developing the blue-chippers they've recruited.
 
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He’s a great recruiter and has brought in some top notch assistants. I’m a big fan of Joe Moorehead as an OC. That said, I’d give Mario about 2/3 of a season before people here talk about flying banners. Oregon is good for two or three “wtf?” losses a year. They went 4-3 just last year and two of their wins were by 3 and 7 points.

Do I think he would do well here? Yes. Is he going to meet fans’ expectations? Unlikely. He’d definitely bring more credibility than Manny but that’s not saying a whole lot.
 
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