So a 1st year HC should be expected to lead a team that didnt have a QB and went 7-6 last year to a 10 win season and the ACC coastal? How many first time, first year head coaches in the 21st century had at least a 3 game improvement over his predecessor and won his division? I believe Malzahn and Peterson are the only two HCs to have accomplished the feat. Peterson wasn't at a P5, so that leaves 1 P5 coach in 20 years, as far as I can tell.
I think Miami wins out and makes a decent bowl. Will finish 9-4. A two game improvement and a bowl win would be an excellent 1st year for Diaz, especially since the team will enter 2020 on a roll (if Miami was a 1 loss team and then ended a 4-5 game losing streak, that would be a bad look.