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Are they actually getting better? Lets go back to Pitt...

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I was most impressed with Williams from his play to how he carried himself. He made some great throws, made some great reads and then made some great decisions to tuck it and take what was available. He’s obviously learnt a great deal and it’s starting to show dividends. Save for a few brain farts, I’m looking at you Nesta and Patchan, the team has also played smart.
 
Sebastianbird said:
Of course it’s an improvement.

I’ll am saying is that Manny was the coach for the awful games earlier in the year. So, he’s really only improving on his own awfulness.

And this “improvement” with coRches always proves to be rather temporary. Remember when Golden “improved” the team in games 7-9 of 2014 and brought 3 straight wins in routs? Did that last?
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When we were 3-4 the advanced metrics said we were really more like a 4-3 or 5-2 team with bad luck.

And now the last 3 weeks the results have finally caught up.

With reasonable luck this year we're a 7-3 or 8-2 team. With our schedule, that wouldn't make us world beaters, but it would make us a ranked team playing very good football down the stretch.

Manny has had a solid first year (so far).
 
ALLoverCANE said:
When we were 3-4 the advanced metrics said we were really more like a 4-3 or 5-2 team with bad luck.

And now the last 3 weeks the results have finally caught up.

With reasonable luck this year we're a 7-3 or 8-2 team. With our schedule, that wouldn't make us world beaters, but it would make us a ranked team playing very good football down the stretch.

Manny has had a solid first year (so far).
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The last 3 wins have been lucky. We’ve actually been outgained in total these 3 games.

And, even before the last 3 games, the UVA win was lucky.

I’d be willing to bet that we would have lost the Pitt and UVA games according to Connely’s model 70-80% of the time. We probably would lose the Louisville game about 50% of the time. Even FSU we’d probably lose 25%ish of the time.

Where can you find Connely’s game by game models? I remember slurpers posting it after the Va Tech loss. Of course, they didn’t post the model after the UVA or Pitt games, because that wouldn’t fit their agenda.

And PS nothing worse than 11-1 against this scedule is a “solid” season.
 
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Sebastianbird said:
The last 3 wins have been lucky. We’ve actually been outgained in total this 3 games.

And, even before the last 3 games, the UVA win was lucky.

I’d be willing to bet that we would have lost the Pitt and UVA games according to Connely’s model 70-80% of the time. We probably would lose the Louisville game about 50% of the time.

Where can you find Connely’s game by game models? I remember slurpers posting it after the Va Tech loss. Of course, they didn’t post the model after the UVA or Pitt games, because that wouldn’t fit their agenda.

And PS nothing worse than 11-1 against this scedule is a “solid” season.
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Almost everything you said there was wrong.

Even AFTER the Pitt game, Connelly said we had -1.7 wins of bad luck. And then vs FSU I think we had something like a 95% postgame win expectancy. We'll have to wait until tomorrow for the Lville advanced box score, but given that he had us winning by 10 and we moved up in his rankings, the win % will be very high. We wouldn't have moved up if the model thought the win was lucky given the 10 pt spread.

So if we were at 5.7 after Pitt, and his model sees two dominant wins after that, it means his model thinks we're basically an 8 win team.

In other words, you tried to use data to make your case, totally misrepresented the facts, and whiffed badly.
 
Sebastianbird said:
The last 3 wins have been lucky. We’ve actually been outgained in total these 3 games.

And, even before the last 3 games, the UVA win was lucky.

I’d be willing to bet that we would have lost the Pitt and UVA games according to Connely’s model 70-80% of the time. We probably would lose the Louisville game about 50% of the time. Even FSU we’d probably lose 25%ish of the time.

Where can you find Connely’s game by game models? I remember slurpers posting it after the Va Tech loss. Of course, they didn’t post the model after the UVA or Pitt games, because that wouldn’t fit their agenda.

And PS nothing worse than 11-1 against this scedule is a “solid” season.
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You're insane if you think the Louisville game would be a 50-50 coin flip in an advanced model.

We were out gained in yardage because our defense got us stops, and our special teams set us up. So we had drives that didn't require us to drive as far. Guess what? That's part of Connelly's 5 True Factors for winning.
 
Nice winning streak. But we've seen this before a lot in the last 15 years of suckitude. Color me skeptical that this is real and sustainable. I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
Nice winning streak. But we've seen this before a lot in the last 15 years of suckitude. Color me skeptical that this is real and sustainable. I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe.
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I can't really remember us finishing the year strong over the last 15 years.
2016 stands out for sure. But we carried that into a nice 2017 season, so it's not like the winning streak was a mirage.
Other than that it seems like we never finish the year on any kind of high note.
 
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So a 1st year HC should be expected to lead a team that didnt have a QB and went 7-6 last year to a 10 win season and the ACC coastal? How many first time, first year head coaches in the 21st century had at least a 3 game improvement over his predecessor and won his division? I believe Malzahn and Peterson are the only two HCs to have accomplished the feat. Peterson wasn't at a P5, so that leaves 1 P5 coach in 20 years, as far as I can tell.

I think Miami wins out and makes a decent bowl. Will finish 9-4. A two game improvement and a bowl win would be an excellent 1st year for Diaz, especially since the team will enter 2020 on a roll (if Miami was a 1 loss team and then ended a 4-5 game losing streak, that would be a bad look.
 
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Sebastianbird said:
The last 3 wins have been lucky. We’ve actually been outgained in total these 3 games.

And, even before the last 3 games, the UVA win was lucky.

I’d be willing to bet that we would have lost the Pitt and UVA games according to Connely’s model 70-80% of the time. We probably would lose the Louisville game about 50% of the time. Even FSU we’d probably lose 25%ish of the time.

Where can you find Connely’s game by game models? I remember slurpers posting it after the Va Tech loss. Of course, they didn’t post the model after the UVA or Pitt games, because that wouldn’t fit their agenda.

And PS nothing worse than 11-1 against this scedule is a “solid” season.
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How do you remember what Slurpers posted after the VT loss - You’ve only been on the board for 3 days???

Oh by the way, have you met my friend...

4C7E67F1-0483-4825-9E8C-65080527FC41.gif


@IndayArtHauz
 
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Empirical Cane said:
they lost to GT...a boderline HS team.

Crushing setback.

4th and 17 was the defining moment for the season--we all knew it, we all felt it when it happened.
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that felt like an absolute dagger to the heart, when that was completed, you had the feeling they were going to score
 
TimeB0mb said:
So a 1st year HC should be expected to lead a team that didnt have a QB and went 7-6 last year to a 10 win season and the ACC coastal? How many first time, first year head coaches in the 21st century had at least a 3 game improvement over his predecessor and won his division? I believe Malzahn and Peterson are the only two HCs to have accomplished the feat. Peterson wasn't at a P5, so that leaves 1 P5 coach in 20 years, as far as I can tell.

I think Miami wins out and makes a decent bowl. Will finish 9-4. A two game improvement and a bowl win would be an excellent 1st year for Diaz, especially since the team will enter 2020 on a roll (if Miami was a 1 loss team and then ended a 4-5 game losing streak, that would be a bad look.
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that wouldn't be a bad year, in my view both can be true -- the first half of the season was a dumpster fire. The second half, one that gives us hope and something that can be viewed as positive.

Just look at the losses, close to Florida, then 4th and 17 to UNC, losses at home to Vatech and GT(inexcusable) and the thing is with an average kicker, one or two of those are wins.

So close, yet so far.

Just glad there are signs of hope
 
Sebastianbird said:
You’re making it seem like the CMU death match was under a different coach.
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Howard lost to FAMU. Butch lost to ECU, twice. Anything is possible. JJ blew a 30+ point lead to Maryland. I hated those ugly games as much as anyone, but you can't deny there is some improvement happening. I want Manny to succeed, and I have been one of his harshest critics. All is forgiven with improvement.
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
When we were 3-4 the advanced metrics said we were really more like a 4-3 or 5-2 team with bad luck.

And now the last 3 weeks the results have finally caught up.

With reasonable luck this year we're a 7-3 or 8-2 team. With our schedule, that wouldn't make us world beaters, but it would make us a ranked team playing very good football down the stretch.

Manny has had a solid first year (so far).
Click to expand...

Regarding the Lady Luck thing and what not. Miami probably played that Lucky Ace card during the 2017 season. Witness both the FSU and GA Tech games. hUh. So it will probably one or two more seasons before Lady Luck shows her beautiful face again.:ttdg2m10mxvzxan.jpg: hUh.
 
mossmadness said:
I can't really remember us finishing the year strong over the last 15 years.
2016 stands out for sure. But we carried that into a nice 2017 season, so it's not like the winning streak was a mirage.
Other than that it seems like we never finish the year on any kind of high note.
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Was the 2017 season really nice, except for the ND and Va Tech games? It’s an obsession of mine that might be stupid, but I find that season to still be super overrated by this board. If you take out those 2 games and maybe the Duke game, it’s basically a Randy Shannon/Al Golden season. For God’s sake, even the Bethune-Cookman game in 2017 was a bad game.

I find 2017 to be a meh season that only seems like a good season relative to the **** we’ve endured recently.
 
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