Are they actually getting better? Lets go back to Pitt...

[ALLoverCANE]

ND was a great game. Was Va Tech really a great game? I’d say very good, not great.

Just look at the other games in 2017. The 31-6 Duke win might be passable as a relatively good game under Shannon or Golden. The other 10 games would basically have seemed like typical games under those coaches. Not good games under Shannon and Golden, but basically typical.

Anyway, the 2005 Miami team (the first year FPI has been retoractivated too) would beat the 2017 Miami team by about 4 or 5 points according to FPI. At the time, 2005 was seen as a bad season. Shows how much Miami standards have changed.

The 2005 Miami team was ranked #3 going into the 2nd to last game of the year. That was a very good team, with possible HOFs on both sides of the ball (

The last 3 wins have been lucky. We’ve actually been outgained in total these 3 games.

And, even before the last 3 games, the UVA win was lucky.

I’d be willing to bet that we would have lost the Pitt and UVA games according to Connely’s model 70-80% of the time. We probably would lose the Louisville game about 50% of the time. Even FSU we’d probably lose 25%ish of the time.

Where can you find Connely’s game by game models? I remember slurpers posting it after the Va Tech loss. Of course, they didn’t post the model after the UVA or Pitt games, because that wouldn’t fit their agenda.

And PS nothing worse than 11-1 against this scedule is a “solid” season.

Update on this. Advanced box score gave us a 100% chance to win. There was absolutely no luck involved in this W.