Will there be a 2021 season?

[Colombie]

I don't really want to rehash every virus debate and engage in conjecture about what we think should happen vs what actually will in the real world soooooo I'll just tell you how I interpreted it.

I think we'd probably agree that those likely to complain the loudest about no college football are people in the South and those of us in Florida and in Texas.

Do I think if the South and Florida/Texas had their **** together right now and over the last 2 months in relation to virus spread and deaths that the national feeling would be that we got that summer respite from the virus that everyone hoped for? Yes. (We'd also just be able to blame California's spike on purely liberal leadership or the protests.)

I think under that climate we'd at least be wayyyyyy more likely to at least start the season than facing none at all as the dominoes wobble more and more each day.

It is a false narrative.

I think there's going to be people complaining VERY loudly who followed the rules and restrictions and did everything they could to mitigate the spread of the contagion.

There are also many , many people who will complain who know that flattening the curve is slowly happening in various parts of the country.

IT is just silly to say the people complaining the most are the most to blame.
It is a simple hot take in my opinion that is more about politics or plain bias.

 

[Stylie]

There wlll be two.

 

[JD08]

It is a false narrative.

I think there's going to be people complaining VERY loudly who followed the rules and restrictions and did everything they could to mitigate the spread of the contagion.

There are also many , many people who will complain who know that flattening the curve is slowly happening in various parts of the country.

IT is just silly to say the people complaining the most are the most to blame.
It is a simple hot take in my opinion that is more about politics or plain bias.

Everything is based on the assumption that there was an action we could have taken that would have stopped the spread. There never was. The only hope was to slow it so as not to overwhelm hospitals.

 

[GojiraCane]

MLB is already up and running. Running in fits and starts, yes, but running. Why would they care what CFB does at this point?

It’s more of a public relations domino effect is what I suspect. CFB which is huge in its own right cancels - then media attention switches over to the NFL? “Mr Goodell, what confidence do you have that the NFL can guarantee the safety of its players when college football already says that it can’t.” Add to that the specter of more players opting out for the 2020 season. Then NFL teams refusing to practice ala Syracuse. Then finally the league shuts down, because in addition to the media you have governors who start to take a stand. Then with the NFL cancelled, attention flips back to MLB. Same questions asked there, except there Is already a record that baseball cannot protect its players (Marlins). Media attention shines bright on MLB, and the question is “why are you doing this with CFB and the NFL shut down.” MLB cancels, then NHL cancels, and we wait for the NBA to do its 2021 miniseason in its bubble. And I say mini because I cannot imagine the NBA players wanting to do a full season in the bubble.

Just wargaming out a scenario, could be far more benign than that. But as I said in the original post, what are the metrics for returning? Right now, nobody appears to have them.

 

[GojiraCane]

Everything is based on the assumption that there was an action we could have taken that would have stopped the spread. There never was. The only hope was to slow it so as not to overwhelm hospitals.

Only action to stop the spread was to have everyone self isolate for 30 days - planetwide. And keep to those terms without exception. That would have stopped it. And that’s virtually impossible to accomplish given human nature.

 

[JD08]

Only action to stop the spread was to have everyone self isolate for 30 days - planetwide. And keep to those terms without exception. That would have stopped it. And that’s virtually impossible to accomplish given human nature.

And anyone who had it would have to self-care and hope for the best. You're right, impossible.

 

[Brains]

Only action to stop the spread was to have everyone self isolate for 30 days - planetwide. And keep to those terms without exception. That would have stopped it. And that’s virtually impossible to accomplish given human nature.

It's impossible to accomplish because people have to eat. I mean that in the most literal sense.

 

[Tetragrammaton Cane]

What does this even mean?

It may be a great bumper sticker slogan but does it really have any merit?

It has merit.

 

[Tad Footeball]

It is a false narrative.

I think there's going to be people complaining VERY loudly who followed the rules and restrictions and did everything they could to mitigate the spread of the contagion.

There are also many , many people who will complain who know that flattening the curve is slowly happening in various parts of the country.

IT is just silly to say the people complaining the most are the most to blame.
It is a simple hot take in my opinion that is more about politics or plain bias.

I'd agree there's a level of "hot take" to it since it's obviously too broad an indictment. And there absolutely will be manyyyyy people extremely ****ed and loud if there's no football that did everything right this entire time.

In a general sense though I still think it holds true. If the South and Texas/Florida resembled the northeast right now (not that they're immune from a second wave in the fall) I think we'd be in a different mindset in relation to this because the national mindset would be different.

But at the end of the day this is obviously just Florio's opinion and I happen to agree with it but debating it will probably end up with purely subjective and speculative points deployed.

 

[KrazyCane]

I don’t even understand how this parroted narrative even makes sense.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

By the 2021 season I am 98% confident there will be a vaccine. That means it will generally be safe for players to play. Schools will likely make vaccination mandatory since numbers aren't high enough for herd immunity. So I think there will be football. Whether it happens in an empty stadium is the question.

We also have to hope China doesn't accidentally release any more bio-engineered diseases. Funny how no one is looking into the origin anymore. You'd think that would be important.

 

[GojiraCane]

It's impossible to accomplish because people have to eat. I mean that in the most literal sense.

Right. You’d have to literally preprovision 7B people with 30 days of food. Any medical problems would be ignored for 30 days. And you would have to enforce the global quarantine - by drone - with the strictest penalties.

 

[Silver King]

Since it appears that we’re probably 72 hours from it all coming apart, I’ll jump the gun and ask about the following year.

What are the metrics for returning? No cases? A vaccine? A vaccine with X percentage of effectiveness? What do you all think?

And how many colleges will resume football regardless of 2021 conditions? We can pretty much guarantee that Colorado State, UConn and a few others will not be back due to financial conditions entering this season.

And if there is no 2021 season, how many teams will fold? I can picture a future where the remaining colleges abandon an in-house team and instead sponsor a minor league team in a revived XFL.

The way our health care system has approached this - and with the media helping politicize it in an election year- this may be the norm for a very long while, or until Herd Immunity makes its way through 70% of the population (Which it's doing a good job of). The Public Health folks will no way get 50% of the American Public to take a vaccine if they come up with one any time soon - even if they attempt to make it mandatory.

In the mean time, bankruptcies, business closings and unemployment will grow significantly. Joblessness has already eroded much of tha nation's disposable income, and that entertainment dollar is rapidly becoming a survival dollar.

This should have been obvious from the start; the unexpected consequences of this shutdown would be massive. Look at the increase in: crime, mental illness, suicides (ABC had a story that Covid stress will likely result in 20 more firearm suicides a day https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19s-impact-include-20-firearm-suicides-day/story?id=71635386), Non-covid stress related health issues, etc.

 

[GojiraCane]

By the 2021 season I am 98% confident there will be a vaccine. That means it will generally be safe for players to play. Schools will likely make vaccination mandatory since numbers aren't high enough for herd immunity. So I think there will be football. Whether it happens in an empty stadium is the question.

Yesterday Fauci said that he did not believe that the vaccine would be extraordinary effective. Let’s say that it is 40% - 50% effective - is that enough for businesses to reopen, let alone CFB and other sports to resume.

That said, the very survival of major league sports would be at stake with two cancelled seasons. There is so much money at play that the visual of a (partially effective) vaccine may be enough.

 

[GojiraCane]

By the 2021 season I am 98% confident there will be a vaccine. That means it will generally be safe for players to play. Schools will likely make vaccination mandatory since numbers aren't high enough for herd immunity. So I think there will be football. Whether it happens in an empty stadium is the question.

We also have to hope China doesn't accidentally release any more bio-engineered diseases. Funny how no one is looking into the origin anymore. You'd think that would be important.

Too much business to be had in the future with China for some. For others, the narrative of a Chinese origin are not advantageous politically.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Yesterday Fauci said that he did not believe that the vaccine would be extraordinary effective. Let’s say that it is 40% - 50% effective - is that enough for businesses to reopen, let alone CFB and other sports to resume.

potentially. There is so much money at stake that the visual of a (partially effective) vaccine May be enough.

I think 50% effectiveness for the first vaccine iteration is understandable. There are so many companies in the race hitting it at a different angle that in aggregate they will have a much higher effectiveness rate. So at some point the economy has to get going again and it's just a risk we have to deal with.

 

[JD08]

The way our health care system has approached this - and with the media helping politicize it in an election year- this may be the norm for a very long while, or until Herd Immunity makes its way through 70% of the population (Which it's doing a good job of). The Public Health folks will no way get 50% of the American Public to take a vaccine if they come up with one any time soon - even if they attempt to make it mandatory.

In the mean time, bankruptcies, business closings and unemployment will grow significantly. Joblessness has already eroded much of tha nation's disposable income, and that entertainment dollar is rapidly becoming a survival dollar.

This should have been obvious from the start; the unexpected consequences of this shutdown would be massive. Look at the increase in: crime, mental illness, suicides (ABC had a story that Covid stress will likely result in 20 more firearm suicides a day https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19s-impact-include-20-firearm-suicides-day/story?id=71635386), Non-covid stress related health issues, etc.

That 70% for herd immunity was the worst case scenario for an extremely contagious virus. This one isn't as highly communicable, so the number was a lot lower. I think it was well below 50%, but I can't say for certain. If I run across it again, I'll post it on the Covid forum.

 

[GojiraCane]

I think 50% effectiveness for the first vaccine iteration is understandable. There are so many companies in the race hitting it at a different angle that in aggregate they will have a much higher effectiveness rate. So at some point the economy has to get going again and it's just a risk we have to deal with.

But what is that point if the cases are continuing? It comes back to health vs profit, which is why CFB may shut down. Let’s say the situation is no better in the summer of 2021, or only marginally better, and you know that a second cancelled season is enough to kill CFB for good, do you put football above safety? Same question for the larger economy as a whole.

Hopefully at this time next year either a form of herd immunity or vaccine is achieved which renders this question moot.

 

[BoxingRobes]

We'll get to a Spring, conference only version of this season. NFL will eventually move back the draft a month or two to accommodate.

 

[MizCane]

It’s all political and the vast majority of colleges are liberal AF. Shalala would have already shut down the program if she were still around and you can take that to the bank. It’s a serious virus and contagious but the “science” is showing young healthy are able to pass it fairly easily. There will be exceptions yes but that comes with any risk. Just Bc they play football doesn’t mean they don’t have any better chance of getting it not playing. They’ll also be monitored daily during football. If my employer took the precautions and testing they will be doing not only me but the only their companies still working remote would be back.