I get that, but the momentum stopped cold in the offseason.
They had one of the smallest Portal classes in the country with only six kids. It's also one of the worst classes in the country.
Those six additions include a backup quarterback, a punter, a glorified walk-on safety. a rotational DB, and a UMass EDGE with three sacks. The only good player they added was the #25 WR in the Portal.
Conversely, they lost seven players to the draft (tied for 6th-most nationally). That doesn't even include their leading receiver (Elijah Badger) and most explosive running back (Montrell Johnson). They also lost 23 players to the Portal, including five blue-chip transfers.
It's one thing to avoid the Portal if you're stacking Top 5 classes like Georgia and Texas. But they finished 18th in 2022 and 13th in 2023-2024.
Are they good enough to beat us? Of course. But when you look at the net loss of talent, it makes sense that Vegas is more pessimistic than the media.