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Whats our record

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Pentagon Cane said:
Yes and it is better than last year's and we are not closing down with the portal. Who did we lose other than Rambo on offense? Hartley was very good but replacable. Who did we lose on defense? Silvera was solid but pedestrian. Same for McCloud. Just scheme alone will improve our defense with an emphasis on tackling.
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Better than last year aint saying much😂😂😂😂we mediocre in the trenches on both sides with questions at LB and CB u dont just overcome that in year 1 because u have a new scheme

And u just named our 2 best players on the dline last year lool so thats not a good point but i like the potential of the young guys like roberts,chantz and of course LT but none of them are proven we just hoping
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Almost every good team and coach loses to a squad they have more talent than every year. You have to be a LOT better than nearly everyone on your schedule to go 12-0, not just "better" or "we have more talent."

Lincoln Riley lost twice in conference this year to teams with less talent.
Nick Saban lost to TAMU.
Nick Saban and Kirby Smart beat each other, so one of those is a talent upset by definition.
Harbaugh lost to MSU.
Kelly lost to Okie St. and Cincinnati.
Ohio St. lost twice to teams with less talent.
Clemson lost to NCST and Pitt.

And so on.

It's the math of it all. This is why Vegas cleans your clocks year in and year out.

If you have a 75% chance of winning a game, that means you lose that game 1 out of four times. Now project that across a 12-15 game schedule.

Some more probabilities:

If you have a 90% chance of winning every time you step on the field you will have a 28% chance of going 12-0. That's it. How often in a season does a team have a 90% chance of winning on a given Saturday? That translates to a big point spread. That's how hard it is to win week in and week out.

If you have a 90% of winning in four of your games, 75% chance of winning in another four of your games and a 60% chance of winning in the other four of your games, that means you have significantly more talent than everyone you play. That's easily a top 10 roster, maybe top 5.

Your chance of going 12-0 in that scenario is 2%. 2%!!!

One bad throw, or a ball grazed by a DL, or a sudden rainstorm can mean a 14 point swing on one play. And the math is suddenly upside down. That's football. It's not playstation.

It's REALLY hard to beat everyone you are better than. You're generally going to get tripped up at some point, but you are also going to have a chance to trip up someone that is better than you too. But when you're elite, you can't "make up" a loss because you're supposed to win all the time. Unless you are a top 5 team in a given year, you really need to look at the overall record.

The idea that Mario has some game-day albatross around his neck is statistically, nonsense. He turned 0-12 FIU into a conference champion, and took over a struggling Oregon program with a talent deficiency and won 12 games and a Rose Bowl and a Pac-12 Championship, all before he even had a chance to turn the roster over fully.

If we give this man the time and respect he deserves, he can take us to the top.
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I literally said that first sentence in my post, should I bother reading any further?
 
9-3.
Losing Rambo, Harley and Williams hurts. Beyond those losses we will be as good or better at every position as last year. With better coaching and more fundamentally sound defense there is no reason we should not be 1-2 games better than last year’s team.
 
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westcoastcanes said:
I literally said that first sentence in my post, should I bother reading any further?
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I think a better question is why do you assume that every response to your post must be a counterpoint?

Did it ever occur to you that maybe I was providing addition information that supported your post? I guess you're not used to people listening to what you have to say.

So, yes. You should read further. :)
 
HurricaneForce said:
10-2. Obviously the losses are to A&M and Clemson, but to those picking more than 2 losses, who do you think we're losing to?
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If we don’t bring our A game, we could very easily drop one to Pitt, UNC, or @ UVA. We don’t have the talent to sleep walk through any of those matchups.
 
AtlAtty said:
9-3.
Losing Rambo, Harley and Williams hurts. Beyond those losses we will be as good or better at every position as last year. With better coaching and more fundamentally sound defense there is no reason we should not be 1-2 games better than last year’s team.
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Rambo. That's it. And I am legit freaked out about how much we are going to miss him. He caught so many 50/50 balls that made everyone else look good.

TBH Harley and Williams are examples of guys that should barely see the field on a Mario led team, 2nd or 3rd team at best. Harley had like what, 500 yards this year as a 6th year SR? He averaged 45 yards a game as a starter. They were good players on a Manny led squad. Don't think either of them were even invited to the combine. Mario should be able to coach up superior young WR talent and replace Williams in the portal IMO. Let's see.
 
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Maskoff407 said:
For people claiming that Mario doesn’t have the roster he wants, that would be to compete against Bama, OSU, UGA… not Duke, VTech, UNC, and GT. Miami’s roster is the second best roster in the ACC. We have talent despair over every team on our schedule except Clemson and TAMU. So stop with that Mario doesn’t have the talent BS.
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That’s not true. UNC outrecruited us in 2022 and 2020. We outrecruited them in 2019 and 2021. But our classes have been neck-and-neck the past 4 years. They are dangerous, even without Howell. And Pitt, outside of Pickett, returns their entire roster. But they replace Pickett with Slovis, who is no slouch.

People thinking we’re ready to destroy the Coastal need to update their expectations. We don’t have the talent in the trenches yet. The portal could help, but right now we’re looking at an 8-4/9-3 type season. With that said, the goal should be to win our division and beat FSU.
 
Between eight and ten wins should be realistic. If we perform really well in the trenches, winning the ACC should absolutely be happening and if the defense performs at a Top 30 rate, I wouldn't rule out going undefeated.

With that being said, anything below an ACC title appearance would be a disappointment.
 
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Cryptical Envelopment said:
Rambo. That's it. And I am legit freaked out about how much we are going to miss him. He caught so many 50/50 balls that made everyone else look good.

TBH Harley and Williams are examples of guys that should barely see the field on a Mario led team, 2nd or 3rd team at best. Harley had like what, 500 yards this year as a 6th year SR? He averaged 45 yards a game as a starter. They were good players on a Manny led squad. Don't think either of them were even invited to the combine. Mario should be able to coach up superior young WR talent and replace Williams in the portal IMO. Let's see.
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You are probably right that I am doing what most fans do which is to over-value the worth of our own players in terms of Harley and Williams. They were both good players but neither should be impossible to replace if we have reasonable depth. Same with McCloud and Nesta.
Rambo was so Good and would have good on any UM team over the past 20 years. We have talent but do we have his level of production in every single game.? That is the challenge. I think RB’s may catch more passes next year to make up for the loss of Rambo.

With that being what it is, where are you putting our record next year? I still think 9-3 with TVD and a slightly better defense is pretty attainable especially considering that Howell and Pickett are gone. G-Teach has been decimated in the portal. Duke will be bad again. UVA loses their QB. The coastal is worse than usual next year.
 
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9-3

1) Because of a coach with a wholistic approach
2) Because of our QB
2) Because of improvement in the run game. Because the O-line just went to the top of the position room list with this staff in building a championship program. If Miami had spent half the time in recruiting O-llineman (involved every play of the game) than they did Corners who didn't turn on the ball and got toasted against better receivers routinely, anyway - we'd been a lot better off. No more namby-pamby BS letting it slide on the O-line without accountability- so we might see some portal guys or younger Canes, but its an investment in the future until we get the horses.
3) Healthier RB's that have more competition.
4) Because of better attention to detail from SC, training table to clock management.
 
AtlAtty said:
You are probably right that I am doing what most fans do which is to over-value the worth of our own players in terms of Harley and Williams. They were both good players but neither should be impossible to replace if we have reasonable depth. Same with McCloud and Nesta.
Rambo was so Good and would have good on any UM team over the past 20 years. We have talent but do we have his level of production in every single game.? That is the challenge. I think RB’s may catch more passes next year to make up for the loss of Rambo.

With that being what it is, where are you putting our record next year? I still think 9-3 with TVD and a slightly better defense is pretty attainable especially considering that Howell and Pickett are gone. G-Teach has been decimated in the portal. Duke will be bad again. UVA loses their QB. The coastal is worse than usual next year.
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I mean, I think you can make a list of up to 20 CFB players, 10 going out and 10 coming in between now and game 1 that are going to drastically affect our roster. I think we are going to see a LOT more player movement after spring, so any guess I'd make would be an uneducated, wistful guess. Having Clemson and TAMU on the schedule, both on the road no less, does us no favors as far as breaking in an entirely new staff, with new terminology.

Gun to my head, optimistic 9-3, 6-2. Coin flip as far as winning the coastal depending on what others do. The real issue is even though we will try to flip a lot of the roster, depth is certainly going to be a major issue. This isn't going to be a particularly original thought, but I think our fate will be particularly tied to how many injuries we do or don't have.

Honestly, I barely care about our 2022 record. Weird things can happen. We can win 10 games, but know in our hearts we won't be a "one win or so away from the playoffs" type team yet even if we do. Conversely, if we start to look the part, and catch a few bad breaks, I'm not going to lose a minute of sleep. We're going to need to break some eggs to make this omelet. There will be bumps along the way. I'm just happy we have some QB's.
 
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