forums

Whats our record

too early to tell but if Mario closes PORTAL strong with Quality 2 OL, 2 DL, LB and CB anything is possible

don‘t underestimate the value of a great QB and Staff …11-1 is possible
 
Advertisement
Andrew said:
In their first full year:
Kirby Smart - UGA - 8-5
Nick Saban - LSU - 8-4
Nick Saban - Ala - 7-6
Dabo Swinney - CLE - 9-5 (went 4-3 the season before)

You got to remember that Mario doesn't have a roster of his guys yet.
Click to expand...
My only issue with this, did any of them walk in year one with a QB as talented as TVD?
What was the teams record the year prior to their arrival? I feel like Smart probably had the best roster walking in the door.

Bama prior to Saban. 6-7,10-2, 6-6
LSU prior to Saban, 3-8, 4-7, 9-3
Clem prior to Dabo 9-4, 8-5, 8-4

I just think there’s a pretty good roster in place with a solid guy at the most important position. I think a good staff is worth a 2-3 game swing which should at least put in in the ACCCG and I think we can win it! That’s all.

For the first time I think we are winning the off-season with staff improvements and not smoke and mirrors from a politicians son.
 
I like seeing some realistic expectations. Maybe we get pleasantly surprised for once. 8-4 from me too.

A 1 win improvement is still an improvement. As talented as this staff is, I don’t think any of them added an additional 3 or4 wins upon being hired at previous jobs.
 
Advertisement
I wouldn’t immediately chalk up aTm and Clemson as losses but I also wouldn’t chalk up our ACC schedule as a bunch of freebie wins either. At Oregon Mario’s teams proved capable of winning big games but they also had a penchant for losing to at least one Pac12 also-ran.
 
9-3 regular season. I think we win one of the two vs A&M and Clemson. Then we lose one Coastal game. We also drop an unexpected conference game.
 
E1k said:
I don’t look at football like that, record doesn’t tell the full story of how the team played in my view. I saw fans happy about 2020 when we were barely winning games and then last year we barely lost them.

I see improvements in overall play and culture in the building but this roster is 8-4 caliber imo. Idk why yall are taking that as if it’s terrible lol. 8-4 can win the coastal and give us a opportunity to compete for the acc championship and win a good bowl game.
Click to expand...
Yes, 8-4 would be. We aren't winning the division with a 5-3 record. That means we lost to Pitt or NC or possibly both. UVA and VT are complete rebuilds. We were 5-3 last year.
 
Advertisement
Portal pick up’s (as in likely starters) at CB, DL/DE and MLB would make us poised for a special year.

Offense will be good enough to keep us in any game on schedule, though.
 
TheEye said:
I like seeing some realistic expectations. Maybe we get pleasantly surprised for once. 8-4 from me too.

A 1 win improvement is still an improvement. As talented as this staff is, I don’t think any of them added an additional 3 or4 wins upon being hired at previous jobs.
Click to expand...
Last staff lost 4 games due to its incompetency.
 
DTP said:
I wouldn’t immediately chalk up aTm and Clemson as losses but I also wouldn’t chalk up our ACC schedule as a bunch of freebie wins either. At Oregon Mario’s teams proved capable of winning big games but they also had a penchant for losing to at least one Pac12 also-ran.
Click to expand...
And this staff blows away his staff at Oregon, period.
 
Advertisement
hydro66 said:
Next year? We have a hard schedule coming UP. What do all think.
Click to expand...

up the movie GIF
 
Advertisement
Need to see the roster come fall camp. Injuries and portal are big variables.

Ill say 9-3 for now.
 
E1k said:
Do u see this roster?
Click to expand...
Yes and it is better than last year's and we are not closing down with the portal. Who did we lose other than Rambo on offense? Hartley was very good but replacable. Who did we lose on defense? Silvera was solid but pedestrian. Same for McCloud. Just scheme alone will improve our defense with an emphasis on tackling.
 
TallyCaneFan said:
Seems like everyone is writing off Clemson as a lost because of trenches/talent. Did any of you actually watch Clemson play last year? Their OL was straight trash and their DL wasn't close to being as dominant as during their run. Their record may have been 10-3, but they lost to two teams we beat and had some squeakers against teams like GT, BC and Syracuse. I don't see the talent level necessarily being that different. We also now have what looks to be a huge improvement - at least on paper - in coaching while they've lost some serious cornerstones to their staff.
Click to expand...
They also held UGA to 3 offensive points. Might have lost a lot of coaches but they hired within so I’m sure there will be little drop off and they are still by far the most talented team in the ACC.

We may win, but for anyone to pencil it in a sure thing is just being a homer, it would for sure be an upset if we win
 
westcoastcanes said:
Mario has lost a game or games to teams he has out talented every season (as almost all coaches do almost every year). Unranked Arizona and Arizona state in 18 and 19, Oregon state and cal in 20, and Utah in 21. I think his staff is stronger now than at Oregon though, so that mitigates some of the chance of losses. He will need at least a couple strong classes before sweeping the games we are favored in should be expected IMO. So basically any coastal team with a pulse shouldn’t be taken lightly, for now and rivalry games are always less predictable. But I think he is going to recruit better at Miami than Oregon, so I think he will get there and we can start expecting 10+ wins in ‘24 and beyond.

For ‘22 I could see 8-4 with a couple injuries, but think 9-3 is not unrealistic if we are lucky on injuries. 10-2 pretty unlikely but not impossible.

Don’t forget the roster is still like 65/85 Manny guys.
Click to expand...

Almost every good team and coach loses to a squad they have more talent than every year. You have to be a LOT better than nearly everyone on your schedule to go 12-0, not just "better" or "we have more talent."

Lincoln Riley lost twice in conference this year to teams with less talent.
Nick Saban lost to TAMU.
Nick Saban and Kirby Smart beat each other, so one of those is a talent upset by definition.
Harbaugh lost to MSU.
Kelly lost to Okie St. and Cincinnati.
Ohio St. lost twice to teams with less talent.
Clemson lost to NCST and Pitt.

And so on.

It's the math of it all. This is why Vegas cleans your clocks year in and year out.

If you have a 75% chance of winning a game, that means you lose that game 1 out of four times. Now project that across a 12-15 game schedule.

Some more probabilities:

If you have a 90% chance of winning every time you step on the field you will have a 28% chance of going 12-0. That's it. How often in a season does a team have a 90% chance of winning on a given Saturday? That translates to a big point spread. That's how hard it is to win week in and week out.

If you have a 90% of winning in four of your games, 75% chance of winning in another four of your games and a 60% chance of winning in the other four of your games, that means you have significantly more talent than everyone you play. That's easily a top 10 roster, maybe top 5.

Your chance of going 12-0 in that scenario is 2%. 2%!!!

One bad throw, or a ball grazed by a DL, or a sudden rainstorm can mean a 14 point swing on one play. And the math is suddenly upside down. That's football. It's not playstation.

It's REALLY hard to beat everyone you are better than. You're generally going to get tripped up at some point, but you are also going to have a chance to trip up someone that is better than you too. But when you're elite, you can't "make up" a loss because you're supposed to win all the time. Unless you are a top 5 team in a given year, you really need to look at the overall record.

The idea that Mario has some game-day albatross around his neck is statistically, nonsense. He turned 0-12 FIU into a conference champion, and took over a struggling Oregon program with a talent deficiency and won 12 games and a Rose Bowl and a Pac-12 Championship, all before he even had a chance to turn the roster over fully.

If we give this man the time and respect he deserves, he can take us to the top.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top