UNC Matchup

[The Franchise]

Do you think that a team that squeaks by playing at unc can walk into tally and win? If so, I disagree with you and that's the point. If we stand a chance at Tally, we should win this game decisively. There is no mystery in that.

The same fsu team that you hold in such high regard was in a dog fight with a bad BC team a couple weeks ago. They pulled away a little at the end, but that game was close most of the way. That didn't stop them from slaughtering Maryland. I don't put too much in stock in one game here or there.

When UM and fsu play, what happened the previous week doesn't matter at all. Remember 2002 when we were supposed to destroy a bad fsu Chris Rix-led team? These rivalry games are just different. There's often no rhyme or reason to what happens.

I don't know, chief. I disagree. I think we have to win this game decisively. Until we start to whip these teams we can't differentiate ourselves as a road team from the same team that was struggling with the likes of uva and I for one do not see that team coming within 2 td's at state. You need that confidence. I think we'll win this game decisively but where we may differ is that I think we HAVE to. Otherwise i dont see us beating a very good team anywhere but at home.

And I do think fsu is good. Anyone who thinks that team is not very good is kidding themselves. They aren't unbeatable but it's going to take a really good team to walk in there and come out w/ a win.

So how much do we have to beat UNC by in order to assure that we beat fsu? Is there a formula that works that way too? If we need to beat UNC badly in order to stand a chance against fsu, then how big does the margin have to be in order to assure that we beat fsu?

As to one of your other points, if you don't see a difference in this team and the one that lost to uva, then you're not watching the games.

I just emerged from my football laboratory, having put down the beakers and extinguished the bunsen burners, and I can tell you that if we beat UNC by more than 26.3498 points we are guaranteed of victory against F$U.

I wonder if Pennmed Canefan had similar feelings about the BC game at the end of the 2001 regular season?

You, friend, are a true football scientist. I appreciate your work. I'm pulling for a 27+ point win over UNC because that should get us an automatic default victory against fsu based on your study results.

 

[Biscuits]

Every game is important - UNC has always gotten up for the U, however - it looks like the stadium is not close to being sold out and there are tickets available directly and ads in Craigslist and several websites. So I'm hoping for a disappointing crowd.

I've read this several times. It's false.

They have sometimes gotten up for this game, but there's really no telling how much of that was UNC playing way over their heads or how much of that was Miami being a ****** team. They don't always get up to play Miami. For example, in 2010, Miami won by 23. This was the Miami team that ended Randall's reign of terror. Obviously, not a quality Miami squad. Yet, we waxed them in an empty Son Life. They went 8-5 that year and won their bowl. We went 7-5 and got rolled by an average ND team to close out the year.

If you go back and look at the games, there's very little continuity year to year in this match-up. Last year we lost a nail biter. In the year before, we won in the same fashion. I already looked at 2010.

Obviously, if we're not the much-improved team we think we are, this game could be close. It could anyway. But I'm betting we are much-improved and win by 14+.

Also, for those worried about the pass-heavy nature of UNC and Florist's offenses, please review the following table:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks

Can you facking believe that? We're tied for 4th nationally in sacks with 18. 19 is the national lead.

 

[4Canes]

Williams will be the starting QB, I guarantee it. He did well vs VT and the open date will allow him to get more reps. It would not surprise me to see Miami struggle in the first with him at QB.

 

[fastcane]

Even the best team of all time almost lost to a mediocre team, we were lucky on this day. Been betting football games for 30 years even the absolute best teams lose once in a while, never mind the above average team which I believe we are right now. Elite, not until we beat Fl state and Clemson. Not being a Debby Downer, just calling it as I see it without the orange & green glasses. Do I think we win this week? Yes! Do I think it's a blowout in our first conference game on the road, I'd say it's more likely not a blowout. Just like when Clemson went on the road to NCST, IMO that was not a blowout.

''Miami started with a 9–0 lead over the Boston College Eagles, but Miami's offense began to sputter as Dorsey struggled with the swirling winds, throwing four interceptions. The Hurricane defense picked up the slack by limiting BC to just seven points. However, in the final minute of the fourth quarter, with Miami clinging to a 12–7 lead, BC quarterback Brian St. Pierre led the Eagles from their own 30-yard line all the way down to the Hurricanes' 9-yard line. With BC on the verge of a momentous upset, St. Pierre attempted to pass to receiver Ryan Read at the Miami 2-yard line. However, the ball ricocheted off the leg of Miami cornerback Mike Rumph, landing in the hands of defensive end Matt Walters. Walters ran ten yards with the ball before teammate Ed Reed grabbed the ball out of his hands at around the Miami 20-yard line and raced the remaining 80-yards for a touchdown. Miami won 18–7.''

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Lingering effects of Shancokerization abound in this thread.

The weakness is apalling.

Share your thoughts, call someone out. If it is me, I will cry first but I can take it.

My thoughts?

I see nothing in either team's body of work to date or in the situation that leads me to believe any of the following:

1) that UNC is more talented

2) that UNC is better coached

3) that this Miami team plays down to the level of competition

4) that UNC has any tangible advantage playing in Chapel Hill.

So, given that none of those appear to be true, I see no specific reason, other than pure doubt, to fear this game.

The better-coached, more-talented team generally doesn't lose to sub-par competition. It happens occasionally, but not often. What our fans are failing to realize here, I think, is that we are that better-coached squad. It's been so long since we were (at least ten years, maybe as long as twenty-four) consistently not only the athletically superior squad, but also the organizationally superior one as well, that our fans are slow to come around to facts that opened this paragraph. Or, I should say, some of our fans are slow to believe that Miami is that team now, and not the team of the past seven or eight years that would routinely lose games it had no business losing.

I think we are either that team already or pretty **** close. I think our days of dropping games that should be double-digit wins are past us. If not totally, then largely, and soon to be completely. Those teams are out there. Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't. Nor do other truly elite teams. I don't think we're elite yet, but we're on the way. I'm done with fearing fear. When I see a real problem that can't be ignored, then I'll worry. Against UNC, I see nothing of that nature.

Long-winded. My apologies in that front.

 

[Copeseticman]

UNC always plays us tough. On the road, prime time, and hostile crowd I think Heels keep it close early.

THIS.

Have to weather the storm of a night game on the road in the ACC.

 

[weownfsu]

I wouldn't be surprised if UNC got a TD early. Other than that, they'll probably get ran over.

 

[CaneMutiny06]

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Those were good teams they lost to though. SC went 10-2 and Stanford was a 12 win team last year. Not the same as a bad UNC team that will probably finish with a losing record.

 

[fastcane]

And if it's cold that really is against us. I'm out in Vegas now, watched BTW game. It was about 58 degree's out, many of those kids were jumping around on the sidelines trying to get warm. They started off well and then froze up, lol. SF kids who are not use to the cold, don't seem to handle the cold weather very well.

UNC always plays us tough. On the road, prime time, and hostile crowd I think Heels keep it close early.

THIS.

Have to weather the storm of a night game on the road in the ACC.

 

[rok]

High of 68 and low of 44 on 10/17 on weather.com

Break out the handwarmers

 

[fastcane]

They were massive favorites, we will be less of a favorite than both of those games. They also lost at home and Miami is on the road. Stanford lost 2 games and could have lost more than 5 more, they were very close. If what you are saying holds water then we will be 30 point favorites, that's not happening. 8 of Stanford's wins were 7 points or less.

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Those were good teams they lost to though. SC went 10-2 and Stanford was a 12 win team last year. Not the same as a bad UNC team that will probably finish with a losing record.

 

[fastcane]

Not good news!

High of 68 and low of 44 on 10/17 on weather.com

Break out the handwarmers

 

[drifters1234]

Every game is important - UNC has always gotten up for the U, however - it looks like the stadium is not close to being sold out and there are tickets available directly and ads in Craigslist and several websites. So I'm hoping for a disappointing crowd.

I've read this several times. It's false.

They have sometimes gotten up for this game, but there's really no telling how much of that was UNC playing way over their heads or how much of that was Miami being a ****** team. They don't always get up to play Miami. For example, in 2010, Miami won by 23. This was the Miami team that ended Randall's reign of terror. Obviously, not a quality Miami squad. Yet, we waxed them in an empty Son Life. They went 8-5 that year and won their bowl. We went 7-5 and got rolled by an average ND team to close out the year.

If you go back and look at the games, there's very little continuity year to year in this match-up. Last year we lost a nail biter. In the year before, we won in the same fashion. I already looked at 2010.

Obviously, if we're not the much-improved team we think we are, this game could be close. It could anyway. But I'm betting we are much-improved and win by 14+.

Also, for those worried about the pass-heavy nature of UNC and Florist's offenses, please review the following table:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks

Can you facking believe that? We're tied for 4th nationally in sacks with 18. 19 is the national lead.

that stat regarding sacks is outstanding. we have been dreadful in putting pressure on QBs for too long. Getting pressure is the number 1 factor to improve the overall defense. not only does it rattle the opposing QBs and force poor decisions, but it also reduces the time your DBs have to maintain coverage. That really bodes well moving forward.

 

[L A M P]

Anybody know of any places online for last minute cheap flights? Best I could find round trip was a little over $300.

 

[DeadPoets]

Every game is important - UNC has always gotten up for the U, however - it looks like the stadium is not close to being sold out and there are tickets available directly and ads in Craigslist and several websites. So I'm hoping for a disappointing crowd.

I've read this several times. It's false.

They have sometimes gotten up for this game, but there's really no telling how much of that was UNC playing way over their heads or how much of that was Miami being a ****ty team. They don't always get up to play Miami. For example, in 2010, Miami won by 23. This was the Miami team that ended Randall's reign of terror. Obviously, not a quality Miami squad. Yet, we waxed them in an empty Son Life. They went 8-5 that year and won their bowl. We went 7-5 and got rolled by an average ND team to close out the year.

If you go back and look at the games, there's very little continuity year to year in this match-up. Last year we lost a nail biter. In the year before, we won in the same fashion. I already looked at 2010.

Obviously, if we're not the much-improved team we think we are, this game could be close. It could anyway. But I'm betting we are much-improved and win by 14+.

Also, for those worried about the pass-heavy nature of UNC and Florist's offenses, please review the following table:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks

Can you facking believe that? We're tied for 4th nationally in sacks with 18. 19 is the national lead.

Alabama is 103rd in sack totals with 6.
Do they generally sack QBs much?

 

[CaneMutiny06]

They were massive favorites, we will be less of a favorite than both of those games. They also lost at home and Miami is on the road. Stanford lost 2 games and could have lost more than 5 more, they were very close. If what you are saying holds water then we will be 30 point favorites, that's not happening. 8 of Stanford's wins were 7 points or less.

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Those were good teams they lost to though. SC went 10-2 and Stanford was a 12 win team last year. Not the same as a bad UNC team that will probably finish with a losing record.

Using Stanford as an example of Oregon losing games it shouldn't, within the context of what Biscuits was saying, is misleading. Stanford is/was not comparable to UNC in being a team an elite program shouldn't be losing to. Stanford had a really good team, UNC has a ****** one. The fact that Stanford won close games doesn't make the comparison any more valid.

 

[Biscuits]

They were massive favorites, we will be less of a favorite than both of those games. They also lost at home and Miami is on the road. Stanford lost 2 games and could have lost more than 5 more, they were very close. If what you are saying holds water then we will be 30 point favorites, that's not happening. 8 of Stanford's wins were 7 points or less.

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Those were good teams they lost to though. SC went 10-2 and Stanford was a 12 win team last year. Not the same as a bad UNC team that will probably finish with a losing record.

Using Stanford as an example of Oregon losing games it shouldn't, within the context of what Biscuits was saying, is misleading. Stanford is/was not comparable to UNC in being a team an elite program shouldn't be losing to. Stanford had a really good team, UNC has a ****** one. The fact that Stanford won close games doesn't make the comparison any more valid.

Exactly. When was the last time Alabama last to Vandy, or MSU? When was the last time Oregon lost to a Wazzu, or Utah, or even Oregon State? It's been a long time. They dropped a game against a 9-4 Cal team in 2008. That's the first loss I see that even comes close to what Miami losing to UNC would resemble.

My point, more finely stated, was that elite teams don't lose to bad or even average teams with any kind of frequency. We may not be elite yet, but we want to believe we're heading that way in short order. We certainly appear to be a very solid, maybe even very good team this year. UNC looks like a bad team. Sure, Miami could lose this game or play it close. But that's hard to predict by pointing to anything specific in the facts of the situation.

 

[bomb]

Miami has always displayed the tendency to play down to the level of its competition. While it's still early, I haven't really seen that out of this team, even with a couple of cupcakes on the schedule. My opinion is that the coaching staff deserves credit as do the kids, who have displayed a good deal of maturity. While I do not expect it, I would not be shocked to see them "play down" to a team like Wake. I cannot see that happening against North Carolina, regardless of their stats.
I picture this game being competitive early but getting out of hand late in the second or at the beginning of the third.

You've been Shannitized.

 

[bomb]

This is the first talented Al Golden team there has been at Miami... the first made up mostly with his players... the first that's been in UTough shape... I'm not sure that what happened under Shannon in 2007 or Dennis Erickson in 1994 has anything do do with these kids and this team.

So don't tell me how Miami "historically plays down to lesser teams" and **** like that. This is the 2013 team, under a completely different regime.

 

[fastcane]

The context was, Oregon doesn't lose games they shouldn't! They were massive favorites, much more so than Miami will be and they lost. You are supposed to win as 20 point favorites, in fact I'd say maybe 2-4 times in a season for all div 1 teams does a 20 point favorite lose. As far as I know only one so far this season. A 20 point favorite is a 20 point favorite. Oregon up to that point was a superior team, Stanford was a high middle of the road team. Just as Miami is a high middle of the road team and UNC is a little less than middle of the road team in Div 1. Not much different at all. Like I said, if you were correct, Miami would be a 30 point favorite and I doubt it will be more 10 points.

They were massive favorites, we will be less of a favorite than both of those games. They also lost at home and Miami is on the road. Stanford lost 2 games and could have lost more than 5 more, they were very close. If what you are saying holds water then we will be 30 point favorites, that's not happening. 8 of Stanford's wins were 7 points or less.

'' Oregon doesn't lose games it shouldn't.''

Yes they do!


In 2011 Oregon was a huge 14.5 point favorite at HOME against USC, they lost outright!
In 2012 Oregon lost to Stanford at HOME as a massive 20.5 favorite.

Those were good teams they lost to though. SC went 10-2 and Stanford was a 12 win team last year. Not the same as a bad UNC team that will probably finish with a losing record.

Using Stanford as an example of Oregon losing games it shouldn't, within the context of what Biscuits was saying, is misleading. Stanford is/was not comparable to UNC in being a team an elite program shouldn't be losing to. Stanford had a really good team, UNC has a ****ty one. The fact that Stanford won close games doesn't make the comparison any more valid.

 

[DeadPoets]

UNCs passing scheme worries me.

I hope we play man press and see a lot of AQM & McCord on 2nd and 3rd downs.