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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

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Posted in another thread, but applies to this one.

ND and Miami should both be in! You guys 100% deserve to be. You are one of the top 12 teams.

Ole Miss and Oklahoma are the frauds.

Mind if I pollute your board with some thoughts?

Let's look at Oklahoma. OK has the 72nd ranked Offense. Defensively, they are a bit overrated IMO. They have played four teams with top 50 offenses. #4 TN scored 27, #14 Ole Miss scored 34, #25 Alabama scored 21 with 3 turnovers and no running game. The fourth, Missouri #39, was impressive as they held them to 6, even though they dropped a TD that would have been 13. Best performance nonetheless. Every other O they played has been bad.

Ole Miss...

Why are they getting a free pass? Have you seen their schedule?
1. Georgia St.
2. Beat Kentucky by 7 giving up 23
3. Beat Arkansas by 6, giving up 35.
4. Beat Tulane
5. Beat LSU by 5
6. Beat Washington St. by 3
7. Lost to Georgia, giving up 43
8. Beat overrated OK, giving up 26
9. Beat South Carolina
10. Beat The Citadel
11. Beat FL by 10 with a late score.

Yuck! Why are they getting a free pass?

BYU's schedule is just as ugly. Miami and ND would destroy these teams. As ND fans, me and my friends are beating the drum for ND and Miami to both be in.
 
NDfan said:
Posted in another thread, but applies to this one.

ND and Miami should both be in! You guys 100% deserve to be. You are one of the top 12 teams.

Ole Miss and Oklahoma are the frauds.

Mind if I pollute your board with some thoughts?

Let's look at Oklahoma. OK has the 72nd ranked Offense. Defensively, they are a bit overrated IMO. They have played four teams with top 50 offenses. #4 TN scored 27, #14 Ole Miss scored 34, #25 Alabama scored 21 with 3 turnovers and no running game. The fourth, Missouri #39, was impressive as they held them to 6, even though they dropped a TD that would have been 13. Best performance nonetheless. Every other O they played has been bad.

Ole Miss...

Why are they getting a free pass? Have you seen their schedule?
1. Georgia St.
2. Beat Kentucky by 7 giving up 23
3. Beat Arkansas by 6, giving up 35.
4. Beat Tulane
5. Beat LSU by 5
6. Beat Washington St. by 3
7. Lost to Georgia, giving up 43
8. Beat overrated OK, giving up 26
9. Beat South Carolina
10. Beat The Citadel
11. Beat FL by 10 with a late score.

Yuck! Why are they getting a free pass?

BYU's schedule is just as ugly. Miami and ND would destroy these teams. As ND fans, me and my friends are beating the drum for ND and Miami to both be in.
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They are getting a free pass because they are in the SEC. But I appreciate you being fair in your analysis. Would be cool to see our teams play each other again in the playoffs.
 
This shouldn't matter at all, but if Miami absolutely dominates Pitt, I can't imagine the committee will put ND ahead of Miami. Again, winning by 1 point should be enough, since we have the head-to-head, but I think one possible path to playoff is dominating Pitt.
 
LMCane said:
Duke loses to Wake Forest is definitely possible
UVA losing to VTech is possible based on a rivalry if the Hokies want to destroy their rivals season.

that's it. win against Pitt and both those happen we play SMU.
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Duke is a fraud and could easily win.
LMCane said:
Duke loses to Wake Forest is definitely possible
UVA losing to VTech is possible based on a rivalry if the Hokies want to destroy their rivals season.

that's it. win against Pitt and both those happen we play SMU.
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Duke is a fraud so WF could definitely win. UVA much better than VT but its college football
 
CanesNation26 said:
This shouldn't matter at all, but if absolutely dominate Pitt, I can't imagine the committee will put ND ahead of Miami. Again, winning by 1 point should be enough, since we have the head-to-head, but I think one possible path to playoff is dominating Pitt.
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the argument Pate makes is that a ranked win against Pitt isn't baked into our ranking yet.. so that should move us up at least 1 if not 2 spots.
at that point, we'd be within 1 ranking spot of ND... so our resumes are close enough to get us to within 1 or 2 spots of ND and a head to head STILL doesn't do enough to move us above them? that's absolutely ridiculous. That literally means the head to head win is worthless.
 
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Lots of people fighting the good fight for us but the propaganda is too strong. It’s just not going to happen as an at large for us.

Just heard Bryant McFadden and the running back from Alabama spewing nonsense about when losing matters.
 
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Can an auburn team without a HC beat bama, can an LSU team without a HC beat oklahoma, can a Miss St team beat an Ole Miss team (that may soon be without a HC), or can Washington beat Oregon?

I truly think if oregon loses despite being #6, are at serious danger because keeping them out means the committee does not have to make a decision on us or ND

BYU losing again to TTU also must happen but I'm not sure the odds of BYU winning that rematch (1 in 20?)
 
Assuming we beat Pitt, for Miami to make the ACC Championship game, one of four scenarios must occur:

Scenario 1:
Wake beats Duke
Va Tech beats VA

Scenario 2:
Wake beats Duke
Cal beats SMU
NC State beats UNC
Syracuse beats BC

Scenario 3:
Va Tech beats VA
Cal beats SMU
NC State beats UNC

Scenario 4:
Cal beats SMU
Wake beats Duke
Va Tech beats VA
Syracuse beats BC
NC State beats UNC

The lines on the relevant games are:

Wake -110. Duke -106
Virginia -360. Virgina Tech +280
SMU -580. Cal +240
NC State -310. UNC +245
Boston College -154. Syracuse +130

So, the math is elementary...

We’ll treat each game as independent and convert the moneylines to fair win probabilities by:
  1. Converting American odds to implied probabilities for both sides of each game.
  2. Removing the book’s “vig” by normalizing so the two sides sum to 1.
  3. Using those win probabilities to compute the chance that at least one of the four scenarios happens.

Win probabilities from the lines

Using standard American-odds → probability formulas and then de-viging each matchup, you get roughly:


Wake vs Duke
  • Wake –110 → P(Wake wins) ≈ 0.504
  • Duke –106 → P(Duke wins) ≈ 0.496

Virginia vs Virginia Tech



  • Virginia –360 → P(VA wins) ≈ 0.748
  • Virginia Tech +280 → P(VT wins) ≈ 0.252


SMU vs Cal
  • SMU –580 → P(SMU wins) ≈ 0.744
  • Cal +240 → P(Cal wins) ≈ 0.256

NC State vs UNC
  • NC State –310 → P(NC State wins) ≈ 0.723
  • UNC +245 → P(UNC wins) ≈ 0.277

Boston College vs Syracuse
  • Boston College –154 → P(BC wins) ≈ 0.582
  • Syracuse +130 → P(Syracuse wins) ≈ 0.418

We care about these specific events:
  • W = Wake beats Duke → P(W) ≈ 0.504
  • V = Va Tech beats Virginia → P(V) ≈ 0.252
  • C = Cal beats SMU → P(C) ≈ 0.256
  • N = NC State beats UNC → P(N) ≈ 0.723
  • S = Syracuse beats BC → P(S) ≈ 0.418

Probabilities of each scenario:

Scenario 1: W & V
Scenario 2: W & C & N & S
Scenario 3: V & C & N
Scenario 4: C & W & V & S & N


Assuming independence, their raw probabilities are:

  • P(Scenario 1) = P(W)·P(V)

    ≈ 0.504 × 0.252 ≈ 0.127 (12.7%)
  • P(Scenario 2) = P(W)·P(C)·P(N)·P(S)

    ≈ 0.504 × 0.256 × 0.723 × 0.418 ≈ 0.039 (3.9%)
  • P(Scenario 3) = P(V)·P(C)·P(N)

    ≈ 0.252 × 0.256 × 0.723 ≈ 0.0466 (4.7%)
  • P(Scenario 4) = P(C)·P(W)·P(V)·P(S)·P(N)

    ≈ 0.256 × 0.504 × 0.252 × 0.418 × 0.723 ≈ 0.0098 (1.0%)


If you just add those, you double-count overlaps (e.g., outcomes where 1 and 3 both happen), so we can’t just sum to get the final answer.

Union of all four scenarios:


To get the true chance that at least one of the four scenarios happens, we have to consider all 32 possible combinations of W/V/C/N/S outcomes and sum the probabilities of those that satisfy any scenario.

We have 5 binary games → 2^5 = 32 possible worlds.

I’ll only list the ones where at least one of S1, S2, S3, S4 holds.

We'll write each outcome as (W,V,C,N,S), with 1 = upset, 0 = chalk.

Worlds that satisfy >= 1 scenario:

  1. (0,1,1,1,0)
    • V=1, C=1, N=1 → Scenario 3
    • Probability:

      P(W,V,C,N,S) = (0.496)(0.252)(0.256)(0.723)(0.582) = 0.01346429
  2. (0,1,1,1,1)
    • V=1, C=1, N=1 → Scenario 3
    • Probability:

      P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.496 * 0.252 * 0.256 * 0.723 *0.418 = 0.00967023
  3. (1,0,1,1,1)
    • W=1, C=1, N=1, S=1 → Scenario 2
    • Probability:

      P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.748 * 0.256 *0.723 * 0.418 = 0.02916666


Now, all outcomes with W=1 and V=1 automatically satisfy Scenario 1, no matter what C, N, S do. So we list all 8 combinations with W=1, V=1:

  1. (1,1,0,0,0) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504* 0.252 * 0.744 *0.277* 0.582 =0.01523375
  2. (1,1,0,0,1) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.744 * 0.277 *0.418 = 0.01094108
  3. (1,1,0,1,0) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.744 * 0.723 * 0.582 = 0.03976173
  4. (1,1,0,1,1) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.744 *0.723 * 0.418 = 0.02855740
  5. (1,1,1,0,0) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.256 * 0.277 * 0.582 = 0.00524172
  6. (1,1,1,0,1) – S1 only

    P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.256 *0.277 *0.418 = 0.00376467
  7. (1,1,1,1,0) – S1 and S3
    • W=1,V=1 → Scenario 1
    • V=1,C=1,N=1 → Scenario 3

      P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.256 * 0.723 * 0.582 = 0.01368146
  8. (1,1,1,1,1) – S1, S2, S3, and S4
    • This is the “all upsets” outcome

      P(W,V,C,N,S) = 0.504 * 0.252 * 0.256 * 0.723 * 0.418 = 0.00982620


Every other one of the 32 possible combinations fails all four scenarios, so their probabilities are irrelevant for the union.

Then, we simply sum the probabilities of the 11 "good" worlds:

P(any scenario) = 0.01346429 + 0.00967023 + 0.02916666 + 0.01523375 + 0.01094108 + 0.03976173 + 0.02855740 + 0.00524172 + 0.00376467 + 0.01368146 + 0.00982620

Doing that, the total comes out to:

P(any of the four scenarios happens) = 17.9%.

Simple. A baby could do it.

So Miami's chance that one of those four multi-game scenarios hits is roughly 18%, or about 1 in 5.5.


Not hopeless, but definitely “need some chaos Saturday” territory.
 
RF-4CCane said:
It’s true. SOS is a dog **** metric.
SOS should be based solely on games you win.

If you lose all (most of) your above .500 games, how does that make you a better team?
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Strength of Record is the metric that’s ******* us. We have a very similar SOS to ND so that doesn’t matter. They have an elite SOR because they lost to 2 top 12 teams and won against all bad teams. Our SOR is worse bc we have 2 worse losses to decent teams.
 
am I the only one thinking this is **** nearly likely?

1764196397623.png



maybe it's because I grew up around VT fans

I dont care about current state of those two programs, nobody has owned a "rival" like VT has owned UVA
 
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another real problem we have is our own conference making sure we don't get help saturday


if we win the ACC, there's only 1 team in

if we dont win the ACC there's at least a shot at 2 teams

why would they not aim for that?

I think they will make sure UVA and SMU have EVERY chance to win
 
Has a team who lost head to head ever finished in front of the team they lost to with the same record?

You can’t because it hasn’t happened. The writing is on the wall that miami is about to get hosed. Committee is doing unprecedented things and saying a team that lost a head to head match in their eyes is a better team than the team they lost to even with the same record. The only way this happens is with agendas and bias. Between bama common opponent and Notre Dame head to head loss the committe isn’t paying attention to any of the key components it is supposed to take into consideration. Bad losses are only bad if you are Miami.
 
BloodEunsOrangeAndGreen said:
Has a team who lost head to head ever finished in front of the team they lost to with the same record?

You can’t because it hasn’t happened. The writing is on the wall that miami is about to get hosed. Committee is doing unprecedented things and saying a team that lost a head to head match in their eyes is a better team than the team they lost to even with the same record. The only way this happens is with agendas and bias. Between bama common opponent and Notre Dame head to head loss the committe isn’t paying attention to any of the key components it is supposed to take into consideration. Bad losses are only bad if you are Miami.
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2000 BCS
 
BloodEunsOrangeAndGreen said:
Has a team who lost head to head ever finished in front of the team they lost to with the same record?

You can’t because it hasn’t happened. The writing is on the wall that miami is about to get hosed. Committee is doing unprecedented things and saying a team that lost a head to head match in their eyes is a better team than the team they lost to even with the same record. The only way this happens is with agendas and bias. Between bama common opponent and Notre Dame head to head loss the committe isn’t paying attention to any of the key components it is supposed to take into consideration. Bad losses are only bad if you are Miami.
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Every single team with the same record as someone they beat head to head has finished ahead of the team they beat the last 2 years. Except Miami of course.

 
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