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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

NC_Canes_11 said:
A 3 loss team being your best win doesn’t constitute a playoff berth.
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You said that ND didn't have any opponents (besides Miami and aTm) that were above .500. That was incorrect.

And you can slam USC all you'd like. but they are ranked #17. That is a quality win.

We are about to beat 22nd-RANKED Pitt and give them their 4th loss. That will be a quality win too.

For the record, Boise State also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500. And NC State has a 6-5 record currently. And Pitt also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500.

So ND played six opponents that are above .500. Miami and aTm (losses) and USC, Pitt, NC State, and Boise State (wins).

The USC and Pitt wins are good wins.


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ML1492 said:
Ari makes a point here that I haven't heard anywhere else - he essentially said that Notre Dame's strength of schedule metrics are being propped up by teams that they LOST to. Hypothetically, if a team played top 25 teams every game on their schedule and lost every single one, they'd have the #1 SOS metric in the nation.

And of course, this is all to say that these teams played already and we got a result. Miami won. You have to earn your way into the playoff and if it comes down to Miami vs. Notre Dame, Miami has EARNED the spot.
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That’s one thing I’ve never liked about SOS. I know SOR is supposed to rectify that, but in the same vein you’re just taking the aggregate of the opponents and saying what your record is vs what an average T25 team would have vs the same record. Is ND’s SOR really 12 when you’ve played 2 T15 teams and lost both?
 
aelmiami said:
That’s one thing I’ve never liked about SOS. I know SOR is supposed to rectify that, but in the same vein you’re just taking the aggregate of the opponents and saying what your record is vs what an average T25 team would have vs the same record. Is ND’s SOR really 12 when you’ve played 2 T15 teams and lost both?
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I'd also point out that ND will play 4-7 Stanford (a team Miami has already played) and Miami will play 8-3 Pitt (a team Notre Dame has already played).

Assuming both Miami and ND win, our SOS/SOR will undoubtedly be closer to ND's after this weekend. Mathematically, it must be, we are playing (and beating) the better team, and with BOTH opponents in common, neither one of us is introducing a team from outside of the common comparison.
 
flips said:
Sure. Bama is the case in point here. They lost to FSU, lulz, to start the year and it doesn't matter anymore. If they lose to Auburn and miss the playoff they're going to miss the playoff cause they lost to Auburn & Oklahoma, not FSU.

The CFP isn't deciding between FSU & Bama for one of the final spots though. Miami and ND will have played 4 common opponents and played each other. I just can't wrap my head around how what happened in the other 7 games is much more important (3 spots in the rankings) than what happened when the teams played each other. Violates everything I learned from playing sports growing up.
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Yeah, when two teams have the same record and have played each other, I presume every sports organization on earth uses head-to-head as the first tiebreaker. You don't need to get to resume and metrics. That's the very simple point Booger made last night and all 3 of the people on air with him acted like he was crazy.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
I'd also point out that ND will play 4-7 Stanford (a team Miami has already played) and Miami will play 8-3 Pitt (a team Notre Dame has already played).

Assuming both Miami and ND win, our SOS/SOR will undoubtedly be closer to ND's after this weekend. Mathematically, it must be, we are playing (and beating) the better team, and with BOTH opponents in common, neither one of us is introducing a team from outside of the common comparison.
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I agree. But I read somewhere they don’t factor the score into common opponents. Just W/L. But I’ve read some much nonsense these last four weeks I can’t keep my head straight anymore.
 
Ispyin said:
They literally will not punish your team that’s already in the playoff for losing their conference championship game as long as it’s not some crazy blowout, which is what they did with SMU last year if Alabama was 10 or higher and loses, reasonably in their conference game they are not falling out, dude
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SMU dropped 2 spots last year
 
aelmiami said:
I agree. But I read somewhere they don’t factor the score into common opponents. Just W/L. But I’ve read some much nonsense these last four weeks I can’t keep my head straight anymore.
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I understand about scores. I'm just pointing out that we play a "good" 8-4 team this week and ND plays a "bad" 4-8 team this week. Once you factor those in, our ranking should be closer to ND's.
 
tdjones34 said:
SMU dropped 2 spots last year
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Yes, and SMU was ranked high enough that it only impacted seeding.

I don't think that will be the case with Alabama at 10. If they drop 2 spots to #12, then it is highly likely they get bumped by the non-Miami ACC champ and Tulane.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Yes, and SMU was ranked high enough that it only impacted seeding.

I don't think that will be the case with Alabama at 10. If they drop 2 spots to #12, then it is highly likely they get bumped by the non-Miami ACC champ and Tulane.
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Agree plus there was no deserving team to move ahead of them
3 loss bama
Miami had lost 2 of last 3
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
You said that ND didn't have any opponents (besides Miami and aTm) that were above .500. That was incorrect.

And you can slam USC all you'd like. but they are ranked #17. That is a quality win.

We are about to beat 22nd-RANKED Pitt and give them their 4th loss. That will be a quality win too.

For the record, Boise State also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500. And NC State has a 6-5 record currently. And Pitt also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500.

So ND played six opponents that are above .500. Miami and aTm (losses) and USC, Pitt, NC State, and Boise State (wins).

The USC and Pitt wins are good wins.


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Agree with all that, but will just add I was at the ND/Boise game and Boise is not a good football team. Boise's QB Madsen is basically a 5'9" pocket passer that can't run.

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tdjones34 said:
Agree plus there was no deserving team to move ahead of them
3 loss bama
Miami had lost 2 of last 3
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Exactly. If Bama doesn't get an "Auburn bump" above #10 and loses to aTm, I could see them dropping to 12.

In all honesty, if Miami beats ranked Pitt, it could be Miami at 10, and Alabama at 11 (BYU at 12 if they don't blow out UCF at home, comparable to Utah's narrow home win over K-State).
 
Ryanmilli said:
Agree with all that, but will just add I was at the ND/Boise game and Boise is not a good football team. Boise's QB Madsen is basically a 5'9" pocket passer that can't run.
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And I didn't list Boise as a "good win", just "an opponent over .500".

Notre Dame has played an adequate schedule, which is getting harder and harder as an Independent. Hats off to their AD, that **** ain't easy.
 
LMCane said:
Duke loses to Wake Forest is definitely possible
UVA losing to VTech is possible based on a rivalry if the Hokies want to destroy their rivals season.

that's it. win against Pitt and both those happen we play SMU.
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Trumpycane thinks Cal has a shot against SMU

SMU traveling on road after thanksgiving

Cal new coach boost who was June Jones assistant so hopefully they throw the ball mkre against a bad SMU pass defense
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Terrible porst.

If it were true, they wouldn't need to have a vote/ranking after the championship games.

But they do.
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True. They justify the vote after the CCG’s by claiming that a team on the bubble, could move up with a quality win. But that’s a double edged sword, or should be.

I can see not moving a team down that lost a CCG if the loss moves them into a loss tie with another non CCG team, but if you lose a 3rd game or a 2nd with a weak SOS/quality wins, you should move down, because you also had the opportunity to move up, had you won, into a more favorable seeding.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
You said that ND didn't have any opponents (besides Miami and aTm) that were above .500. That was incorrect.

And you can slam USC all you'd like. but they are ranked #17. That is a quality win.

We are about to beat 22nd-RANKED Pitt and give them their 4th loss. That will be a quality win too.

For the record, Boise State also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500. And NC State has a 6-5 record currently. And Pitt also has a record above .500 and that will remain above .500.

So ND played six opponents that are above .500. Miami and aTm (losses) and USC, Pitt, NC State, and Boise State (wins).

The USC and Pitt wins are good wins.


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Read it again. I didn’t say all individually or no teams have a better than .500 record. It’s a combined record of under .500
 
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I dont think we get the help we need in the acc... knowing Manny Diaz, he'll finally win a game he needs smh

I do think there's a 50% shot of at least 1 of bama, ole miss, or oklahoma losing this weekend though
 
RF-4CCane said:
One thing I noticed with UVA is the teams they struggled against had strong rushing stats. They gave up 143+ yards rushing in both losses and both of their tight games against UNC and WSU.

VT leads the ACC in rushing in ACC games.
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www.espn.com

Virginia loses starting LB Robinson to torn ACL

No. 17 Virginia's starting linebacker Kam Robinson will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL before the team faces Virginia Tech with a shot at the ACC championship game on the line.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Bad for dudes knee but good for us I think
 
RF-4CCane said:
It’s true. SOS is a dog **** metric.
SOS should be based solely on games you win.

If you lose all (most of) your above .500 games, how does that make you a better team?
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There is an easy way to do this.

For every Division I-A team YOU BEAT, you get one point for each of their regular-season wins. Then, for every Division 1-A team YOU LOSE TO, you add a half-point for each of their regular-season wins. If you beat a 1-AA team, you get a half-point for each of their wins, and if you lose to a I-AA team, you get a quarter-point for each of their wins.

If you lose to a 10-win team, it is the equivalent of beating two 5-win teams.

CURRENTLY, Miami has 60.5 points and Notre Dame has 59.5 points.

Assuming Miami wins out, and our past opponents win out, our highest possible score is 63.5 (UF plays FSU this week, only 1 team can win).

Assuming Notre Dame wins out, and their past opponents win out, their highest possible score is 67 (ND plays no I-AA teams and Navy has 2 games remaining). Now, it is entirely possible that Purdue, Arkansas, and Boston College all lose, and Notre Dame finishes at 64 points.

That should just show you how SIMILAR our strength of schedule is, even factoring in "who we lost to". For ND, losing to Miami and aTm is the equivalent of beating an 11-win team. Miami beat (a good) I-AA team, and Florida fell-off from preseason expectations. And we had 4 common opponents (besides each other). Miami gets double points for beating Notre Dame.


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