Thanks for posting that.
But I think the point most people are making is that there are only 2 teams ahead of us on that list on our schedule.
So, going 10-2 is not unreasonable. UNC is ranked 28th, and we get them at home.
The "can we win the natty next year" crowd might be a bit unrealistic. But the "10 win is a must" crowd is basing their opinion on the link you just posted. Our roster is more talented than everyone else on the schedule, except FSU and ND.
Except it doesn't work that way. It's basic combinatorial math. Just because you're more talented than team X doesn't mean your odds of beating them are 100%.
We might be a couple slots ahead of a team like Virginia Tech. So let's say our chance of beating them on talent alone is 60/40. We might be a couple slots ahead of Duke. Let's say our chance of beating them is also 60/40.
In a two game season of Miami vs Duke and Va Tech...if the odds of winning each game is 60%, you might say we should go 2-0. But you'd be wrong. Our odds are 60% x 60% which is 36%. So odds are GREATER that you WON'T go 2-0 in that scenario
The more games you string together, the lower the odds of a clean sweep, especially if the talent gap is small.
For that reason, it's very unlikely that we will win 10 games.
Except statistics only matter when considered in the context of a large sum. That calculation doesn't work for all teams, individually. So, it's not applicable in this instance, at all. ... Unless you're a gambler.
In that case, it helps degenerate gamblers (no offense) to play the odds ...
But I'm guessing gamblers lost a lot of money betting on UNC to lose games to end the season last year, huh??? Since "basic combinatorial math" probably gave them a 10% chance to finish the season 11-0.
Back on topic ... Canes have enough talent on the roster to win the Coastal. With improved coaching from Richt and Diaz, this team should be better than ANY team the previous staff fielded ... And they won 9 games, without a guy projected to be a 1st round pick playing QB.
Like flipping a coin, winning/losing is a binary event. The number of times you flip is irrelevant, if you flip it once - the odds of getting heads is 50%. The odds of getting heads twice in a row is 25%. Etc. That's the math.
That's not affected by sample size.
Similarly, the odds of winning 10 "winnable" games in a row is very low - even if Miami is favored in every game. It matters HOW MUCH you'ree favored by. If our odds of winning games are up in the 90% range, running off a string of victories becomes more likely. If our odds of winning each game are in the 60% range, the math proves out that it becomes very difficult to go on a run.
That has nothing to do with gambling, it's simply a mathematical fact.
The Canes might win the Coastal. My point is just that the odds are quite a bit lower than you seem to expect.