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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Kjdcanefan said:
That is the main selling point for me, but how does it drive? We have three small kids and a 12 year old.
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I like it better than the 2019 Highlander. This is our third Sienna. Take one for a test drive. With kids, it's a no brainer.
 
JD08 said:
I like it better than the 2019 Highlander. This is our third Sienna. Take one for a test drive. With kids, it's a no brainer.
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They are hard to come by down south. Most Toyota dealerships within about 50 miles or so have them on back order currently. Same with the Kia Carnivals which is what the wife wants....
 
I have noted multiple times that you dont fight the Fed but you do fight Congress, which is run by economically illiterate idiots. So the real money in Energy, just like in real estate, is being made in private equity, which is the wealthy. So in other words, all of these representatives and senators that claim to be for the working class are really just helping the rich.

pitchbook.com

PE investors revive appetite for fossil fuel deals | PitchBook

Oil and gas deals were on the mend during the first quarter of the year as private equity investors increasingly took advantage of market volatility and rising energy prices.
pitchbook.com pitchbook.com
 
Boy you could just do a traditional buy and sell on a Nasdaq index right now.
 
So as the resident grinch in this thread, I find the 10 year at 2.75% really concerning, considering we have 8%+ inflation and a Fed simultaneously tightening and starting QT. The bond market, which is considered the smartest market, is forecasting a recession. Coupled with high inflation, if that continues, and you have stagflation.
 
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SpikeUM said:
So as the resident grinch in this thread, I find the 10 year at 1.75% really concerning, considering we have 8%+ inflation and a Fed simultaneously tightening and starting QT. The bond market, which is considered the smartest market, is forecasting a recession. Coupled with high inflation, if that continues, and you have stagflation.
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Fear trade.
 
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SpikeUM said:
So as the resident grinch in this thread, I find the 10 year at 2.75% really concerning, considering we have 8%+ inflation and a Fed simultaneously tightening and starting QT. The bond market, which is considered the smartest market, is forecasting a recession. Coupled with high inflation, if that continues, and you have stagflation.
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In the video I posted, you have 2 guys that are very accurate at predicting recessions/downturns giving their thoughts... Worth the watch.
 
SpikeUM said:
So as the resident grinch in this thread, I find the 10 year at 2.75% really concerning, considering we have 8%+ inflation and a Fed simultaneously tightening and starting QT. The bond market, which is considered the smartest market, is forecasting a recession. Coupled with high inflation, if that continues, and you have stagflation.
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Maybe you or anyone here can explain the bond market. I understand prime rates, but the bond rates seem to be supply and demand driven. Like, for example, when longer terms yield less than shorter terms people freak out.
 
TheEye said:
Maybe you or anyone here can explain the bond market. I understand prime rates, but the bond rates seem to be supply and demand driven. Like, for example, when longer terms yield less than shorter terms people freak out.
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The bond market is generally considered as the smartest market. The Fed only controls the very short end, they dont control the yield curve beyond that (it is supply/demand).

So VERY simplistically and not 100% mathematically correct, say you buy a 10 year bond $100 that yields 2%, so you expect to receive $20 over time for the bond.

A year later you need to sell but rates have gone up 1%, so an investor buying would get 3%, not 2%, so $30 and not $20. So they are not interested in buying your bond, UNLESS you sell it a price (i.e. loss) that makes up the interest rate difference. Even if you dont sell, you will have a mark to market (paper) loss. Year to date, bond investors have lost over 10% on their holdings.

The reason that an inverted yield curve (short end is higher than the long end) freaks people out is that if investors are willing to receive less for a longer maturity, it means they expect rates to come down, which means they expect a slowdown/recession, which its what has always happened. Remember the bond market is the smartest market.

Hopefully that is understandable.
 
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