forums

Statistical Look at OSU Defense

1767051655641.png

Idk. Doesn’t look all that mismatched to me.

Theres first rounders on our squad too. Yeah, we’re a dog. But we’re live.
 
Advertisement
JustAFanHTX said:
Yeah down’s can play deep but that’s where we want him. If we allow them to play him in the box all game it’ll be a long night. He’ll control the game
Click to expand...

This is why I keep saying we need to throw the ball down the field, especially early. We all know the defense is going to need to be at their best to win, so lean on them. If we take a few shots and have to punt, so be it. We have to find a way to generate explosives.
 
Cribby said:
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face “ this isn’t the game to play in a phone booth. Use space as an extra man , bigger throwing windows and gives wr’s more room for separation”
Click to expand...
I disagree, I think this is exactly what's gonna work on them. I didnt like running up the middle from the shotgun. I love it from the pistol with Mark Fletcher. Block everyone across the line and pick a hole. They want us to spill the play and allow their LBs to run sideline to sideline. We will see which tactic works. It may not work early but I believe if we stay with it it will open up. Especially the B gap runs.
 
252cane said:
This offense vs any decent defense hasn’t been good
Click to expand...
We looked fine against ND. Lville we were -4 turnovers and the SMU game is..well. You already know. I’m not saying we’re going to drop 40 on them, and I’m not saying they’re not an elite defense. But all the generational talk around them needs to be taken with a grain of salt is all I’m saying
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
They have at least 4 first rounders. Don’t for a second think they aren’t an elite defense just bc they didn’t play elite offenses all year
Click to expand...
I’m not saying they aren’t elite. But they can be elite and overrated at the same time. I’ve heard it multiple times this is the best defense in the last however many years. I mean they could be, but they’ve gone against middling competition all year. That’s all im saying
 
Run pistol and run out of 3 and 4 wide sets. If we can help JB with his matchup, than I think we can wear down their dline over the course of the game.

This is the game where Toney serves as a decoy with some exceptions and of course another big time punt return is always possible.
I think the x-factors will be Lofton and Marion. Each will have opportunities to make big time plays. But we need to be strategic with our shots.
 
Advertisement
We have to be tactical, of course. But we can’t play scared. That would be a mistake IMO. In other words, don’t concede anything off the bus.

I think we play our game and see what happens. We all know the Toney-centrism was a bit much last game, so tone it down a little. But run our **** and find out if they can stop it.

They haven’t seen us yet, so who says we can’t run effectively and get our pass game off? I’m not sure we can’t. If our line holds up, which wouldn’t shock anyone btw l, I wouldn’t be surprised to give OSU a harder time than most think.

Just have a back-up plan. And then another.

Let’s line it up and see.
 
Last edited:
Genghis Cane said:
Not sure if it’s already been discussed, but Patricia just said they are going to have some new stuff ready for this game up front. That doesn’t make me feel great.
Click to expand...
Don’t concede anything off the bus. They’re very good, but they wipe their asses just like we do. We’re one of 8 teams left, we’re no pushovers.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
As many of us have been saying, IMO this game really comes down to Dawson/Beck vs Patricia and our offense versus their defense. I think we have an advantage on the other side of the ball, when our defense is on the field versus their offense, or it's at very worst a wash.

But when their defense is on the field versus our offense, IMO we have a massive challenge and whether or not we can actually move the ball and score points will dictate whether or not we win (no ****). So, where does their defense stack up? What does it excel at, and where can it be "attacked".

Spoiler alert, this isn't pretty. IMO this is the best defense in America, yes including Texas Tech, and is BY FAR the best, most talented, most physically imposing, and well coached defense we've seen all season. It's not even close.

Starting with the obvious, scoring defense, they are #1 in America. 8.8 points per game allowed. For context, the best full-season number for any school in the past 10 years is 10.4 for Michigan in 2023 (won the natty) and 10.4 also for UGA in 2021 (won the natty). This year's OSU team is 1.6 points better than both those defenses. Utterly insane. The Miami defense has been unreal this year...we give up 13.8 PPG, so they are a full 5 points better. They have given up TEN touchdowns in 12 games LOL.

So, how do they give up such a low number of points? Well, they start by giving up almost no explosive plays. In 12 games, they have surrendered a TOTAL of 84 plays that went for 10+ yards. Almost hard to comprehend. Miami gave up 124 such plays. OSU has faced 649 plays on defense this year....and 84 of them have gained 10+ yards. That's 13%. So basically, when you line up against them, for every 10 plays you run, you can expect ONE to go for 10+ yards. Almost comical. Within those 84 plays, only 56 of them have been through the air. So they are #1 in the country by a mile in 10+ yard passes allowed, 20+ yard passes allowed, and 30+ yard passes allowed. You simply cannot generate explosives on them, especially through the air. On the ground, they drop all the way to 4th in 10+ yard carries, 13th in 20+ yard carries, and 13th in 30+ yard carries. Yes, that was a joke, these numbers are still insane.

Alright, so they give up no explosives. But in the event you do get a few, can you get into the endzone. Well, they're insane there too. They've only allowed 23 redzone trips all season, which is great but it's #3 in America (Texas Tech and Indiana allowed fewer, Miami was 5th with 26). But once you get there, you can't score. They only allowed 8 TDs in the redzone all season, and that 34% TD rate is usually far and away #1 in a given year, but this year Indiana is actually even better.

So they give up no explosives. In the event you go get into the redzone, which happens less than twice a game, you can't score. But are you more likely to have success running or throwing? Well, neither, but let's look at the numbers in each specific area.

They are #4 in America in yards per carry allowed. Think, the Miami run defense, maybe a little better. That's who they are. Just a complete brick wall. They only average giving up 83.6 yards per game on the ground. But they go it more at the LOS...they are only 65th in TFLs. So they don't shoot gaps and penetrate and put you behind the sticks a lot, but what they do is completely suffocate you at the LOS and you might get 1 or 2 yards, but you're not getting 5 very often. It's kind of the opposite of A&M, who is #2 in TFLs, and even our defense, which is 18th. They are fine just standing your linemen up at the point of attack, filling gaps with their backers, and making it 2nd and 8 all day long.

In the air, this is where it gets really scary. They give up the fewest passing yards per game by a mile....133.8, the next best team is 15 yards behind. 133.8 for an entire season would be the best of the past decade by a long, long way. It's simply the best passing defense anyone has been on the field in well over 10 years. If you want a hint of optimism, they have only intercepted 7 passes all year, and they do allow 60.5% completions, which is 48th in the country. But the passes just don't go anywhere...you complete 60.5% of your throws but only for 5.5 yards per attempt. That means there is NOTHING down the field, and your pass catchers get swallowed as soon as they catch the ball.

So, what the **** does our offense do? Well, first is visit the nearest place of worship, and pray. Second is, perhaps try to attack in the short passing game. As I mentioned, you can complete some balls on them. They don't sack the QB very much (25th in the country), and you can complete 60+ percent. This is where Beck excels. We're likely not going to generate explosives down the field, literally no one has. So find a weak link (good luck) in the secondary, and see if you can get some choice routes in the middle of the field where you can complete a ball and slip a tackle. The tight ends in the seam need to have a big week. We're just not going to win much on the outside or anywhere near Downs. Also, as you'd expect, they're excellent on 3rd downs. 6th in the country. We just got embarrassed on 3rd down against the #1 3rd down defense in the country last week. Find a way to stay out of 3rd and long. If we can live in 3rd and 4 range, I think Beck can find enough time in the pocket to complete short passes for first downs. We catch the ball well, and Beck is incredibly accurate. When we do run it, we gotta get into the B and C gaps and away from McDonald. But honestly, I don't expect a ton in the run game. If we can get to 4 yards a carry, that's probably a massive win and takes some pressure off Beck.

Lastly, Dawson needs to be at his creative best in the redzone. We're probably only going to get 2-3 trips down there the whole game. When we do, we have to find a way to get 7's and not 3's. But make no mistake, this is by far the biggest challenge we've faced to date. IMO this game is a race to 20. Can we get to 20 on them without massive help? Turnovers, special teams, etc. I doubt it, but that's why we play the games. Time for Dawson and Beck to earn their paychecks. Give me 20 on offense and I think we can do this **** thing.
Click to expand...
Thanks and appreciate the great eval.

I agree with sentiment from many that Beck needs to be a 10. But more importantly is our defense outplaying theirs. I’m sure they are aware of the hype OSU’s unit has and will step up to the challenge.
 
jps2344 said:
Thanks and appreciate the great eval.

I agree with sentiment from many that Beck needs to be a 10. But more importantly is our defense outplaying theirs. I’m sure they are aware of the hype OSU’s unit has and will step up to the challenge.
Click to expand...

I trust our defense explicitly. Anything can happen in one football game, but I’ve said since pretty much September that this is a national championship caliber defense. At no point have I felt this is a national championship offense. How, that doesn’t mean we *can’t* win it. We’re in the final 8. We can do this. But the offense has to play at a national championship level in this game. Or, at the very least, hold serve against their defense and let ours win the game for us.

Maybe I’m totally wrong here, but this is why I made this thread. Can we win this game 13-10? Sure. It’s possible. I just don’t think it’s likely. Even if you look at 2023 Michigan, who I feel was in a similar situation, they beat Bama 27-20 in the semis and Washington 34-13 in the natty. They even beat Ohio state 30-24 that year. There just aren’t a ton of games at this stage that are won scoring less than 20 points. Again, it’s possible. But the likely outcome is we’ll need to score at least 17 to get this done. Taint hasn’t given up that many the entire season. So when you factor that plus the fact that our offense has been pretty average most of the season when playing comparable talent, we have to play our A game on that side to win. I said all week before A&M that we didn’t need to play our best on offense to win, we just needed to play our cleanest. And we pretty much did. Very few penalties, only 1 turnover. I don’t think that’ll be good enough in this game. We need to play clean AND our best. Dawson and Beck, it’s time to earn the bread.
 
ShadowSpring said:
They did give up 336 yards to Texas with a QB overthrowing receivers by 15 yards. Somehow they let Texas run on em too.
Click to expand...
Texas ran a butt-load of inside zone and gap runs when they ran outside. That's the only way to run against OSU, unless you're Penn State and run toss sweep with 7 OL on 1st and 10. Pretty sure they only tried outside zone 2 times against OSU. One of them got completely blown up, but Baxter managed to wriggle free and gain some yardage. The other was in a goal to go. Was still tough sledding, but their RBs and Wingo on a reverse managed to average 4.7 ypc on 27 carries.

I agree with @supacane that IZ/duo has to be our bread-and-butter in the run game against OSU. Stick with it. It's what we do best running the ball. Mix in some gap runs doing similar stuff (to the left side, preferably with 3 WRs to the right) that other teams have had success with against OSU this year.

We cannot try as much outside zone blocking schemes as we tried against A&M in the first half. Worked the first couple of plays, but it did not work at all after that until Toney's TD, and that was because we had just run duo 7 straight run plays on them.
 
Back
Top