Statistical Look at OSU Defense

[ShadowSpring]

I made this in another post so I will place it here as well.

Ohio State runs a very NFL-influenced defensive system. Pattern-match coverages. Split-field concepts. A lot of “read 2 to 1,” “carry vertical,” “match releases,” and post-snap rules instead of spot-drop zones.

That system can be elite. But it also has a weakness and every defensive coach knows it. Complex defenses don’t break because of talent. They break because of hesitation. That’s where Miami can live.

Ohio state ask their players to follow a lot of rules. But unlike NFL players, they don’t practice or watch film the amount of hours pro player do.

You don’t beat it with trick plays. You beat it by forcing defenders to decide fast and often wrong. Miami’s Air Raid principles are perfect for that.

We use to call it. Stress the Rules, Not the Man

Pattern-match defenses are rule-based. So offenses attack:

• Who has #2 vertical?
• Who carries the shallow?
• Who replaces the safety when he rotates?

You do that with:

• Stacked releases
• Bunch formations
• Fast motion
• Switch routes

Now a defender has to think quickly and this forces hesitation. Dawson’s offense is actually geared towards breaking OSU defensive rules.
Ohio State’s defense don’t play “that’s my guy”
They play “that’s my responsibility based on rules.”

We run a lot of switch routes which are a poison pill to that defense

Interesting. Lance Roffers was saying we beat them with flood concepts. Overload their rules.

 

[Udynasty]

Good post, and this is something I've been thinking about as well. I hadn't had the time to lay it out, but I did something very similar leading up to Texas A&M. Now, if we're being real, we didn't do very much on offense against A&M. If you want to attribute that to wind or noise, neither of which will be a factor on Wednesday, so be it. But I thought we could have success on offense because I listed all the QBs that A&M faced, and it was a "who's who" of losers. So I thought their defense was a little overrated. Do with that as you may after watching how we played against them, but we won.

Moving onto this week, I see your point here, and in no way am I going to try to say that they've played some incredible array of offenses. They most certainly have not. But the numbers they've compiled against those suspect offenses are literally historic. Generational, in some aspects. So I think the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Is this really the best defense of the past ~10 or so years? I don't know, talk to me in 5 years when their kids are in the NFL and we see how they're doing. What I do know is it's unquestionably the best defense we've seen this year. By a wide margin. But have they seen an offense quite like ours? I'd argue 13-0 Indiana with the Heisman winner is better, and the numbers would back me up. But can we not play 60 minutes that's better than the 60 they put out there? I think we can. I love our OL. I love Beck's accuracy. I love our pass pro. I like how Fletcher should be able to muscle some yards on these dudes. I love how much film we've put out on Toney and how much attention he's going to draw, now can we counter off that and get some other kids involved?

But make no mistake, OSU has played better QBs than A&M did. Mendoza being one, Desmond Williams is a good player (9th nationally in passer rating), Luke Altmyer is a good player (19th nationally in passer rating), Arch has his struggles but definitely has talent, Underwood has his struggles but has talent. If I'm putting my optimist hat on, I'm hanging onto the fact that this is one of the 2 best collections of offensive talent they've seen, especially on the OL, and if you have a very good offensive line (which we do), you should have opportunities to score points. We just need to take advantage of those. When it's 3rd and 4 on their 45 yard line, that might be a 3 point play right there. A first-down gets you into field goal range, a sack or 0 yard play maybe has you punting. We will have chances like that, when they're there, we have to take them. Because they are going to force some 3 and outs on us, no doubt about it. But when we get a couple first downs on a drive, can we score, and most importantly, can we get more than 1-2 plays of 20+ yards?

Great stuff OBM, I agree that OSU is the toughest most talented team we will face.

However I believe we are the toughest most talented team they will face as well. Their DL has not had to deal with an OL like ours for 4 quarters.

And Sayin has never played in such a high stakes game like the Cotton Bowl with a defensive line as fast and violent as ours.

I also think 25 days off for OSU and all of a sudden pitting Sayin and that offense against a team that got it's "rust game" out of the way will give us an advantage where we will
have multiple opportunities to score/ produce takeaways.


Finally, these guys havent been truly tested. The one time they were it was against Indiana a less talented team than OSU and Miami and they folded. A locked in Miami that wont quit and keep coming in waves will break them.

 

[E1k]

Its not Recency bias. We ran for 134 v ND, 1st game of the season, ran for 180 v UF, 4th game of the season and we ran for 175 v A&M last game. We were running the ball effectively to start the season against our best opponents. What happened is we had no diversity and teams just start keying the inside run and we refused to change it up which led to the 2 losses. They change it up and we start kicking tail again. Something alot of us were saying.

The stats mean nothing to me. Running the ball is what the team is built to do. My thing and alot of people position was, u cant just line up and the opposition know you are gonna run it and which way u gonna run it and think u gonna just run it. For example why wasn't the pistol used more in the season, In addition to the outside runs they started using more?

I do not care how Ohio has defended the run v other team, make them defend it v our massive OL. Both of Indiana RBs average 4 yards or more v them. And they were just regular run plays. Mostly into the B gaps. And they only allowed 4 TFLs, 3 by Curry and 1 by Jackson. They want teams to abandon the run and just drop back and throw or start running east west. Our team is not built like that, not this season.

They scored 14 points v Texas and 10 v Indiana. I think out defense can strangle their offense and 16, 17 points can win the game.

Im not gonna debate with your points because its just rooted in alot of false realities but like i said if we come out and the run game is working perfect run that mf all game but i think if we win this game it will be because dawson/beck won it

 

[supacane]

Im not gonna debate with your points because its just rooted in alot of false realities but like i said if we come out and the run game is working perfect run that mf all game but i think if we win this game it will be because dawson/beck won it

U said our running game was recency bias and I provided statistics that it is not, now you are saying its false realities. I posted in another post. The last games they lost to Michigan last season before the playoffs. Michigan ran for 172 yards and threw for 62 yards passing, 2 ints and no TDs. Won the game 13-10. 7-5 Michigan. They had the #1 defense last season in the nation with similar run defense statistics. In alot of ways they are almost identical to what they were last year on both sides of the ball.

Btw let me make it clear. What am saying, in my opinion is not that we should see if the run game works, i think its our route to beating them. I dont see anyway we cant run the ball and throw it to win. I can see us being as anaemic as we were v A&M throwing and winning the game by running it.

I will take our OL over any teams in the nation including Indiana. Mendoza can scramble but he aint a dual threat QB and they ran for 118 yards v Ohio in the last game. So I'm not sure where this, we cant run and shouldn't try to run against them. They were hitting the A and B gap. And that then led to Mendoza then hitting some shots to #80.

 

[ShadowSpring]

U said our running game was recency bias and I provided statistics that it is not, now you are saying its false realities. I posted in another post. The last games they lost to Michigan last season before the playoffs. Michigan ran for 172 yards and threw for 62 yards passing, 2 ints and no TDs. Won the game 13-10. 7-5 Michigan. They had the #1 defense last season in the nation with similar run defense statistics. In alot of ways they are almost identical to what they were last year on both sides of the ball.

whatever illegal **** Harbaugh was doing to push around Taint we need to copy. was it deer antler or amphetamine or meth?

 

[skyman]

Also separate point, but addition. Ohio lost to Michigan last season, they were 7-5 Michigan, they had 172 yards rushing, 9/16 passing, 2 pick, no TDs and won the game 13-10. So this is not the Michigan with the national title appearances.

And Ohio rush defense then was basically the same statistically as it is now. Their pass D is what has improved dramatically from last season. And they have the same DC. They can pretend but at the end of they are not some blue collar team. We are.

Different DC..

 

[supacane]

Different DC..

My mistake.

 

[NicKane]

Win the turnover battle and have some success running and we have a chance to win

I’m nervous about Becks ability to absorb the blitz. He looked putrid against tamu against it early. Our receivers maybe weren’t open? We went max protect with two in the backfield.

OSU doesn’t rush the passer like A&M does and they don’t blitz like A&M does. They just try to beat you on pure power which plays right into the strength of our offensive line.

 

[skyman]

Im not high on the wrs and tes outside of toney and sometimes daniels but thats just me seeing them every week…but against osu??

Planning the gameplan around running the ball on them would just be foolish imo. But hey you never know until you line up so we shouldn’t just abandon it but this whole we need to just run it all game **** is just recency bias from playing a terrible run defense vs a&m

I feel much better about us having good pass protection vs their dline and carson/dawson having finding openings against their dbs than i do with us running vs their dline and linebackers

Agreed 100%. Like I think we have to keep a balance but the beck and the passing game will have to carry until we can get guys lathered up.. thinking we are just gonna pound pound pound to victory doesnt seem like a sound strategy.. I just dont see A gap for life behind brokenmayer against the all american as sound strategy just because tamu isnt gap sound in the exotic style defense..

We are setting ourselves up if that is gameplan..

 

[supacane]

Ohio went into last year game v Michigan 19.5 point favorite against 6-5 Michigan. I already posted the stat, they lost 13-10 at home with Michigan throwing for 62 yards and running for 172. I went back and watch every offensive snap they had v Indiana and I didnt see, "you cant run on them"

 

[BS85]

69-0, good guys

 

[Impudicity2001]

As many of us have been saying, IMO this game really comes down to Dawson/Beck vs Patricia and our offense versus their defense. I think we have an advantage on the other side of the ball, when our defense is on the field versus their offense, or it's at very worst a wash.

But when their defense is on the field versus our offense, IMO we have a massive challenge and whether or not we can actually move the ball and score points will dictate whether or not we win (no ****). So, where does their defense stack up? What does it excel at, and where can it be "attacked".

Spoiler alert, this isn't pretty. IMO this is the best defense in America, yes including Texas Tech, and is BY FAR the best, most talented, most physically imposing, and well coached defense we've seen all season. It's not even close.

Starting with the obvious, scoring defense, they are #1 in America. 8.8 points per game allowed. For context, the best full-season number for any school in the past 10 years is 10.4 for Michigan in 2023 (won the natty) and 10.4 also for UGA in 2021 (won the natty). This year's OSU team is 1.6 points better than both those defenses. Utterly insane. The Miami defense has been unreal this year...we give up 13.8 PPG, so they are a full 5 points better. They have given up TEN touchdowns in 12 games LOL.

So, how do they give up such a low number of points? Well, they start by giving up almost no explosive plays. In 12 games, they have surrendered a TOTAL of 84 plays that went for 10+ yards. Almost hard to comprehend. Miami gave up 124 such plays. OSU has faced 649 plays on defense this year....and 84 of them have gained 10+ yards. That's 13%. So basically, when you line up against them, for every 10 plays you run, you can expect ONE to go for 10+ yards. Almost comical. Within those 84 plays, only 56 of them have been through the air. So they are #1 in the country by a mile in 10+ yard passes allowed, 20+ yard passes allowed, and 30+ yard passes allowed. You simply cannot generate explosives on them, especially through the air. On the ground, they drop all the way to 4th in 10+ yard carries, 13th in 20+ yard carries, and 13th in 30+ yard carries. Yes, that was a joke, these numbers are still insane.

Alright, so they give up no explosives. But in the event you do get a few, can you get into the endzone. Well, they're insane there too. They've only allowed 23 redzone trips all season, which is great but it's #3 in America (Texas Tech and Indiana allowed fewer, Miami was 5th with 26). But once you get there, you can't score. They only allowed 8 TDs in the redzone all season, and that 34% TD rate is usually far and away #1 in a given year, but this year Indiana is actually even better.

So they give up no explosives. In the event you go get into the redzone, which happens less than twice a game, you can't score. But are you more likely to have success running or throwing? Well, neither, but let's look at the numbers in each specific area.

They are #4 in America in yards per carry allowed. Think, the Miami run defense, maybe a little better. That's who they are. Just a complete brick wall. They only average giving up 83.6 yards per game on the ground. But they go it more at the LOS...they are only 65th in TFLs. So they don't shoot gaps and penetrate and put you behind the sticks a lot, but what they do is completely suffocate you at the LOS and you might get 1 or 2 yards, but you're not getting 5 very often. It's kind of the opposite of A&M, who is #2 in TFLs, and even our defense, which is 18th. They are fine just standing your linemen up at the point of attack, filling gaps with their backers, and making it 2nd and 8 all day long.

In the air, this is where it gets really scary. They give up the fewest passing yards per game by a mile....133.8, the next best team is 15 yards behind. 133.8 for an entire season would be the best of the past decade by a long, long way. It's simply the best passing defense anyone has been on the field in well over 10 years. If you want a hint of optimism, they have only intercepted 7 passes all year, and they do allow 60.5% completions, which is 48th in the country. But the passes just don't go anywhere...you complete 60.5% of your throws but only for 5.5 yards per attempt. That means there is NOTHING down the field, and your pass catchers get swallowed as soon as they catch the ball.

So, what the **** does our offense do? Well, first is visit the nearest place of worship, and pray. Second is, perhaps try to attack in the short passing game. As I mentioned, you can complete some balls on them. They don't sack the QB very much (25th in the country), and you can complete 60+ percent. This is where Beck excels. We're likely not going to generate explosives down the field, literally no one has. So find a weak link (good luck) in the secondary, and see if you can get some choice routes in the middle of the field where you can complete a ball and slip a tackle. The tight ends in the seam need to have a big week. We're just not going to win much on the outside or anywhere near Downs. Also, as you'd expect, they're excellent on 3rd downs. 6th in the country. We just got embarrassed on 3rd down against the #1 3rd down defense in the country last week. Find a way to stay out of 3rd and long. If we can live in 3rd and 4 range, I think Beck can find enough time in the pocket to complete short passes for first downs. We catch the ball well, and Beck is incredibly accurate. When we do run it, we gotta get into the B and C gaps and away from McDonald. But honestly, I don't expect a ton in the run game. If we can get to 4 yards a carry, that's probably a massive win and takes some pressure off Beck.

Lastly, Dawson needs to be at his creative best in the redzone. We're probably only going to get 2-3 trips down there the whole game. When we do, we have to find a way to get 7's and not 3's. But make no mistake, this is by far the biggest challenge we've faced to date. IMO this game is a race to 20. Can we get to 20 on them without massive help? Turnovers, special teams, etc. I doubt it, but that's why we play the games. Time for Dawson and Beck to earn their paychecks. Give me 20 on offense and I think we can do this **** thing.

They play a B1G schedule. Their opponents averaged 24 points per game offensively in their P4 games excluding Ohio State. So, OSU is pushing the average down by 16 points. Miami averages 34 points against P4. OSU averaged 31 points against P4 competition, which pushed its opponents average points given up (exc OSU game) by 5 points from 26 points. So, some context is needed before we declare them better than the 2001 Miami D or 1991 D. I expect it to be a battle and a lot closer than Vegas or pundits are claiming.