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Statistical Look at OSU Defense

While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
 
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This is a thorough and objective breakdown.

Some of you who are ****ed off by the level of objectivity will be the same ones saying “fire Dawson” if we score less than 10 points on Wednesday night. This is not “one of the best defenses in the ACC”, this is one of the best defenses in the history of the sport.

If we are above average against them, with 2 weeks to prepare for us, we score 3 FGs. If we are exceptional, we turn one of those FGs into a TD.

Scoring 20 will require an entire-season’s level of mistakes and exploitations, all in one single game. It’s not impossible, but you might as well think it is. We gain nothing by making the same mistake they are, assuming the opponent is overrated.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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Good post, and this is something I've been thinking about as well. I hadn't had the time to lay it out, but I did something very similar leading up to Texas A&M. Now, if we're being real, we didn't do very much on offense against A&M. If you want to attribute that to wind or noise, neither of which will be a factor on Wednesday, so be it. But I thought we could have success on offense because I listed all the QBs that A&M faced, and it was a "who's who" of losers. So I thought their defense was a little overrated. Do with that as you may after watching how we played against them, but we won.

Moving onto this week, I see your point here, and in no way am I going to try to say that they've played some incredible array of offenses. They most certainly have not. But the numbers they've compiled against those suspect offenses are literally historic. Generational, in some aspects. So I think the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Is this really the best defense of the past ~10 or so years? I don't know, talk to me in 5 years when their kids are in the NFL and we see how they're doing. What I do know is it's unquestionably the best defense we've seen this year. By a wide margin. But have they seen an offense quite like ours? I'd argue 13-0 Indiana with the Heisman winner is better, and the numbers would back me up. But can we not play 60 minutes that's better than the 60 they put out there? I think we can. I love our OL. I love Beck's accuracy. I love our pass pro. I like how Fletcher should be able to muscle some yards on these dudes. I love how much film we've put out on Toney and how much attention he's going to draw, now can we counter off that and get some other kids involved?

But make no mistake, OSU has played better QBs than A&M did. Mendoza being one, Desmond Williams is a good player (9th nationally in passer rating), Luke Altmyer is a good player (19th nationally in passer rating), Arch has his struggles but definitely has talent, Underwood has his struggles but has talent. If I'm putting my optimist hat on, I'm hanging onto the fact that this is one of the 2 best collections of offensive talent they've seen, especially on the OL, and if you have a very good offensive line (which we do), you should have opportunities to score points. We just need to take advantage of those. When it's 3rd and 4 on their 45 yard line, that might be a 3 point play right there. A first-down gets you into field goal range, a sack or 0 yard play maybe has you punting. We will have chances like that, when they're there, we have to take them. Because they are going to force some 3 and outs on us, no doubt about it. But when we get a couple first downs on a drive, can we score, and most importantly, can we get more than 1-2 plays of 20+ yards?
 
ST26 said:
We just did it against ANM. We did it against Florida and even ND. Again, if we wan to to beat OSU, we need to play bully ball. This should be a low scoring, sloppy and sluggish game. Patricia is going to want us to beat them in the passing game, and it's falling right into their trap. They'll bring very unique coverages and get Beck to panic and force the ball. If we go out there guns a blazing looking for the big plays in the passing game, we'll turn the ball over and the game could get bad. We can't make this game a track meet. We need to win this game ugly. Mario Ball is the key to victory
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A&M is not a physical team. Going into that game we all knew we were significantly more physical on both sides of the ball
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
This is a thorough and objective breakdown.

Some of you who are ****ed off by the level of objectivity will be the same ones saying “fire Dawson” if we score less than 10 points on Wednesday night. This is not “one of the best defenses in the ACC”, this is one of the best defenses in the history of the sport.

If we are above average against them, with 2 weeks to prepare for us, we score 3 FGs. If we are exceptional, we turn one of those FGs into a TD.

Scoring 20 will require an entire-season’s level of mistakes and exploitations, all in one single game. It’s not impossible, but you might as well think it is. We gain nothing by making the same mistake they are, assuming the opponent is overrated.
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If Dawson can’t score more than 10pts, he should be fired. Time for an upgrade.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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The points against differential vs FBS is 5 points (13.8 Miami/8.8 OSU)
The points against differential, when you take into account what each team's opponents average points per game vs FBS, is down to OSU giving up 2.5 points less than Miami.
 
SJMPARMAN said:
While the numbers look great the schedule OSU has played hasn't included many top offenses. Just using total offense as a team statistic they have faced four teams in the top 50 of total offense (IN -8, OH - 38, WA - 39, and Rutgers - 42). They faced 5 teams in the 51st to 100 range (MI- 55, TX - 71, IL - 81, PSU - 84 and PUR - 100). They faced 3 teams 101 to 134 (UCLA - 117, MN - 127, and WI - 133).

By comparison, our schedule has faced much better teams in terms of total offense. We faced 5 teams in the top 50 (SFL - 3, FSU - 12, ND - 14, TX AM - 23 and SMU - 29). We faced 4 teams in the 51 to 100 range (NC ST - 63, PITT - 64, LOUISVILLE - 68, and VT -95). We played three teams in the 101 to 134 range (FL - 102, SYR - 104, and STANFORD - 124).

The average team total offense of their opponents was 74.58. Our average team total offense of our opponents was 58.41. So when you compare their defensive stats to our stats and you factor in the strength of the offenses each team played I think its basically a tie. We played much better offenses they that have played.
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Fair point, but OSU's defense is still #1 in FEI, SP+, and F+ (FEI & SP+) which are all opponent adjusted. We are #6, 8, and 5 respectively, so there isn't a huge difference, but there is a difference.

FWIW, our offense is #22 in FEI & SP+ & #18 in F+. Indiana and Washington are higher ranked offenses in all, and Illinois is just above or below depending on the metric. So, they've played higher ranked offenses than us and have still played great defense.

We have a huge challenge ahead of us. Everyone in the offensive shop has to be elite in preparation and performance.
 
Xio said:
This I understand they're statistically great but they just haven't played anyone.
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Ohio State played (3) teams with top 50 scoring offenses, they won 2 of those games. Miami played at least (8) teams with top 50 scoring offenses and won all of them.
 
252cane said:
Offense has struggled vs decent defenses. This is by far the best defense they have seen. Louisville is the highest ranked defense they played this year and they are 17th and you see how that went
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Yea we were doing fine if we didn’t throw 4 interceptions.
 
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TOcane said:
You know better, you don’t think throwing 4 interceptions affects everything?
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It impacts plenty. But we still snapped the ball 55 other times on plays we didn’t throw a pick and didn’t do much of anything. What do interceptions have to do with running the ball like ***? It was a terrible offensive performance from start to finish. If we block and execute like that on Wednesday night we’re gonna get shut out. Thankfully I don’t think that will happen. It’s time for our best game on offense.
 
Yall can analyze all the stats you want. If we cannot run the ball, we wont have much success. Our offense is not built to line up and throw play after play. Its built to run the ball v talent like this. No fancy scheme just big v big. Thats what am counting on. Not pre game stats.
 
Miami MVP very well might be Carter Davis. Even against A&M if it weren’t for the wind we’d have had 12 points off his leg. We move the ball, maybe get a good return or turnover. I’ll take the 12 points from field goals. Now get 1 TD and we have a legit shot at winning with 19 on the board.
 
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