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Statistical Look at OSU Defense

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scrantoncane said:
I was taking a look through some box scores and the level of QB competition they've faced. I already posted above that Mendoza, Demond Williams & Luke Altmeyer had a little success against them (relatively speaking).

Here are the other QBs they faced:

Parker Navarro, Ohio (Decent MAC qb but come on) - 6/13, 94, 1/0
Drake Lindsay, Minnesota - 15/26, 94, 0/0
H. Simmons, Wisconsin (3rd sting guy after they lost billy edwards jr for season and backup danny oneil went out early in this game) - 6/12, 54, 0/1
Grunkemeyer, PSU - (2nd game after Allar went down) - 19/28, 145, 0/1
Luke Duncan, UCLA (backup, 1st game Nico missed) - 16/23, 154, 1/0
Ryan Browne, Purdue - 10/19. 76, 0/1 (season stats: 58.9%, 2153 yards, 9 TD, 10 INT)
Kaliakmanis, Rutgers - 10/20, 81, 0/0
Underwood, Mich - 8/18, 63, 0/0

So they played 3 backups making their 1st or 2nd start, and a couple tomato cans.

Yes, they held a few B1G starters to awful games. Underwood, the Greek Rifle at Rutgers, Drake Lindsay lol.

This is not a murder's row. They haven't faced an offense like Miami aside from Indiana, who beat them, and Texas in Arch's first start. And while Arch progressed as the season went along, he stunk early on.

This is a cupcake schedule. I say it again. **** this team.
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I've been playing this stats game all week. Comparing defense vs offenses faced, etc. Great break down. I watched some of the UW game until OSU pulled away, UW didn't look like a terribly overpowered team by OSU. They were mostly moving the ball and self-inflicted wounds hurt 3rd down conversions and such. Vs Michigan, my goodness was that offense terrible. For every 5 passes Underwood tossed, 4 weren't even close to his receivers, of course you can shut down the run when you see that. Dude was also throwing into triple coverages. Our offense just looked terrible vs A&M and we've seen it do this in other games, that's my worry overall. Hopefully it was just Dawson overthinking and the elements, but OSU has had alot of time to study Dawson and that worries me.
 
Brains said:
ANY unexpectedly good performance could be the difference here.

The margins are unbelievably important in this game.
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Beck falls in love with throwing the ball to Toney no matter what when he gets pressured or panics

He’s missed a lot of big plays this year doing that

Pretty obvious OSU will try and take Toney and the run game away since they have such good DBs they trust can handle our other WRs

We can’t miss a play like the Jojo one against A&M
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Never understood this. Where is there any doom and gloom? Where have I, or anyone else, said don’t play the game and we can’t win? It’s just a look at an opponent. Be an adult. You’re allowed to recognize what you’re doing is a challenge while also being confident you can conquer it.
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Wasn’t referring to you at all but rather the responses I’ve seen of people claiming the info you provided is depressing or acting like we have no chance. I’m in full agreement with you.
 
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EudocimusAlbus said:
I've been playing this stats game all week. Comparing defense vs offenses faced, etc. Great break down. I watched some of the UW game until OSU pulled away, UW didn't look like a terribly overpowered team by OSU. They were mostly moving the ball and self-inflicted wounds hurt 3rd down conversions and such. Vs Michigan, my goodness was that offense terrible. For every 5 passes Underwood tossed, 4 weren't even close to his receivers, of course you can shut down the run when you see that. Dude was also throwing into triple coverages. Our offense just looked terrible vs A&M and we've seen it do this in other games, that's my worry overall. Hopefully it was just Dawson overthinking and the elements, but OSU has had alot of time to study Dawson and that worries me.
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I thought the same thing watching the washington game. It was 13-6 at the end of the 3rd. Washington also failed to convert on a fake punt (if i recall correctly) and some other self-inflicted stuff, as you said. I posted elsewhere that I thought this game was not a great one as far as predictive value vs Miami because their defense way keyed on stopping Demond Williams' legs. We don;'t have that luxury.

I watched the extended highlights (but not every snap) of the Illinois game. That one was not as close as the score indicated. OSU smothered them.

But all and all, they did what they were supposed to do against a weak schedule and they got the 2 seed for it. They are a good team, no doubt. But they missed Oregon, USC, Iowa, etc, got Michigan in down year (plus it was a game they wanted badly after dropping 3 in a row to them), and got PSU without Allar and James Franklin. The ball bounced their way this season. I don't think one can deny that.

Personally, I trust carson beck. After watching the Indiana game, I would test their CB #7, Matthews. I thought he could be had.
 
When I get too deep into the stats it feels more futile than it probably is.

Actually feel better every time i actually throw a game on, mostly in terms of being able to run the ball against OSU.



Before you ask me how the heck i feel better watching OSU hold Michigan to 163 yards -- The second half was a snowy slosh where Ohio State teed off on the run game -- or i've reached a state of desperate delerium grasping for any crease of positivy vs Ohio State defense. Both possible

Michigan was **** against the run and allowed two big passes. One of them being a horrible call leaving Smith basically on an island and another to Tate with Sayin chilling in the pocket like a 7x7 tournement. (I trust we don't let either happen)

But other than that Michigan was able to run the ball for 100+ in the first half and there was missed opportunies by the young QB all over the field. Kid was just panicking without crazy pass rush and checked down too much.

If Beck is on, we'll be able to run the ball more than people think, as long as we show variety with the run scheme.

Defensively, you stop the run, pressure Sayin and don't leave Smith on an island (I think we succeed at all three) and I think we have a chance to embarrass this Ohio State offense, as long as our offense isnt putting our D into horrible positions all night. Shoot me
 
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88 said:
When I get too deep into the stats it feels more futile than it probably is.

Actually feel better every time i actually throw a game on, mostly in terms of being able to run the ball against OSU.



Before you ask me how the heck i feel better watching OSU hold Michigan to 163 yards -- The second half was a snowy slosh where Ohio State teed off on the run game -- or i've reached a state of desperate delerium grasping for any crease of positivy vs Ohio State defense. Both possible

Michigan was **** against the run and allowed two big passes. One of them being a horrible call leaving Smith basically on an island and another to Tate with Sayin chilling in the pocket like a 7x7 tournement. (I trust we don't let either happen)

But other than that Michigan was able to run the ball for 100+ in the first half and there was missed opportunies by the young QB all over the field. Kid was just panicking without crazy pass rush and checked down too much.

If Beck is on, we'll be able to run the ball more than people think, as long as we show variety with the run scheme.

Defensively, you stop the run, pressure Sayin and don't leave Smith on an island (I think we succeed at all three) and I think we have a chance to embarrass this Ohio State offense, as long as our offense isnt putting them into horrible positions all night. Shoot me
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A lot of the success Michigan had on the ground in the first half was out of unbalanced lines and 2-3 TE/HB formations. I don't think we have the personnel for that. We should definitely riff off that first run they had with just 1 TE in the game when they motioned the WR out of the backfield.
 
flips said:
A lot of the success Michigan had on the ground in the first half was out of unbalanced lines and 2-3 TE/HB formations. I don't think we have the personnel for that. We should definitely riff off that first run they had with just 1 TE in the game when they motioned the WR out of the backfield.
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I noticed gap/counter was effective early. Probably why Indiana — who barely ever runs gap — used it more against Ohio State than in any other game by far.
 
TOcane said:
We are a top 20-25 team at the most important thing an offense can do, which is score points. I don’t really care about anything else.
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Offense has struggled vs decent defenses. This is by far the best defense they have seen. Louisville is the highest ranked defense they played this year and they are 17th and you see how that went
 
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Brains said:
The best case scenario is that we get a defensive score.

The next-best scenario is that the defense gives us a couple of short fields via turnovers and the offense gets points.

The offense can't make any mistakes. We cannot miss a field goal. There won't be many chances.

We're not going to "open it up," "let it rip," or "test them deep," like some seem to suggest. That won't work. No one does it to them effectively.

The defense has to play lights out and the offense has to take advantage of the minimal opportunities they are given.

All that said, we can win. Like A&M, they ain't faced two lines like this in a game all year. Our physiciality will keep us in it. And our guys seem to rise to the big occasion.

No fear. Just do it. Go Canes.
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One more thing…

A special teams TD. This time Toney doesn’t get tripped up by an incredible desperation shoestring tackle on the way to the end zone like vs aTm. That would be a big help.
 
88 said:
I noticed gap/counter was effective early. Probably why Indiana — who barely ever runs gap — used it more against Ohio State than in any other game by far.
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Yessir. I think a big key will be successfull zone running against them when they show bear fronts. We gotta make Patricia think twice about showing that. I don't like trying gap against them with 5 on the line. IIRC we tried that late on the FG drive agaisnt ND and it didn't work. I love the gap run IU popped at the end of the 1st Q. TE downblocked agaisnt #98, pulled the RG and even though #98 nearly blew the play up, he sold out and there was massive hole.

(obviously another way to knock them out of bear fronts would be throw successfully against them on early downs, hope we try some of that too)
 
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